If I had a chunk of cash at the end of 2022 and wanted to eventually convert it in bitcoin, then I would have invested 1/3 right away (based on prior halving timing, yada, yada), and 2/3 later (within the next 10 mo).
buying and content with their improved positions.
Oh gawd...
I am not sure if I should hug you or slap you.
#nohomoLargely, it seems that you had been getting all hot and bothered and wanting to argue against DCA, but failing/refusing to understand what the fuck I am talking about... so in a large sense, you are saying something pretty damned close to the same thing as me, even though I have a pretty good idea that your failure/refusal to actually employ DCA and your attempting to be smarter than everyone else in regards to timing the market has contributed towards your being way the fuck overly whimpy over the years in regards to how much BTC that you had accumulated during earlier years because you had been trying to time your BTC buys for dips that never ended up happening...
So, yeah, you don't want to admit that you could have likely been way more aggressive and even accumulated way more BTC if you had employed some version of DCA in regards to your BTC accumulation, but part of your ongoing problem has been that you have had a lot of reservations about BTC that's why you had been ongoingly trying to time a "bargain buy price" rather than just buying at any price, which was the case for many of us who were more bullish about BTC over the past 9 years, and especially in the period of 2014 to 2017... so yeah, you likely ONLY got bullish about bitcoin in recent years, and so you want to suggest that your strategy of NOT employing DCA worked better, and surely that could have been the case for yourself, and surely relatively speaking, even if you had been whimpy about BTC accumulation between 2014 and 2017 relative to me, you still are likely way the fuck ahead of the vast majority of normies since likely less than 1% of the world population has any BTC and surely there are a decent number of folks who are even lower coiners than you... because over the years you have become more bullish about bitcoin.. even though you likely are not even wanting to admit that your historical "reservations about BTC" had contributed to both your whimpiness in investing into bitcoin and the likelihood that you had been investing in a variety of other assets (such as various stocks, even if they might not have been index funds but instead individually researched) that ended up way the fuck underperforming bitcoin over the past 9 years when you would have likely been a lot better off employing investment into BTC tactics that would have been more assertive than what you ended up employing.
And, surely, it is quite likely that you and I were in a different place, anyhow, in terms of the size of our own investment portfolios relative to our ages (or our readiness, abilities and/or willingness) to continue to work to earn cashflow. So I cannot even blame you completely for approaching the BTC matter differently from me based on our own likely life circumstances... even though I can criticize you for ongoingly bashing the DCA'ing approach and acting as if there is some other better systematic way that normies should be gaining their exposure to BTC.. and you still likely want to quibble, even though in the whole scheme of things you are not really saying anything much materially/substantively different from me.
But quibble if you must.. and argue away.. fuck around with the hypotheticals.. selectively choose your facts.. and move the goal posts.. and in essence, you do what you do best.
It's not like I don't like you, even though you make a lot of work for me to have to clarify based on your seemingly quasi-trolling anti-DCA wannabe assertions... and even though it seems like we largely agree about a lot of this, I have no reason to believe that you are going to stop at anytime in the near future. 
If you don't have a "chunk" and instead invest a part of your cashflow, then, sure, DCA your heart out, but if you had that "chunk", then dcaing=mostly wasting your time.
For many years, i have been describing ways to combine DCAing with buying on dips and lump sum investing. Of course, the more that you have reached target BTC accumulation levels that are within your discretion to choose such levels, whether they are between 1% to 25% of your investment portfolio or some other amount or even changing the target allocation level from time to time or even reallocating (if you might not want to let your winners ride - presuming historically that BTC would have been the likely winner over the past 9 years).. you are going to have a lot more flexibility once you established a BTC stash and even more flexibility if your BTC allocation is in profits and perhaps even more flexibility if you are overallocated (depending on how you define your own thresholds for what is "overallocated").
What's wrong with bulk-buying btc with a >70% discount from the ATH instead of just tipping your toes in?
You are quibbling.
A part of my point has continuously been that we cannot really know when, how much or if dips in the BTC price are going to occur or how long they are going dip or continue to dip in the event that they do happen, even if we can speculate about them, so in some sense, it is way easier just have an amount that is invested on a regular basis and perhaps some more that is reserved for dips, and no matter what it can be difficult to have confidence in regards to how much value to allocate to each category or even how much confidence to allocate towards BTC purchases in regards to some extra cashflow that might come in. .. of course, if a guy/gal is buying regularly, then they might be less anxious in regards to picking up more BTC, and if someone might have had $100 per week coming in that they could invest, and if their DCA had ONLY been $10 per week, then after 6 months, they might get anxious to invest some of that extra $2,340 ($90 x 26 weeks), and so there can be all kinds of variations in regards to how any one of us might exercise our discretion in regards to how much we want to place into our regular DCA versus how much we might have allocated for buying on dips....
...as I mentioned to you several times, I had done the vast majority of my DCA in 2014 - but then I could not really resist engaging in some additional DCA and buying on dips in 2015 and 2016 - even though I had done the vast majority of my DCA'ing in 2014.. .. so then after 2017, I have not had very much new cash that I had ended up allocating towards either DCA or buying on dips, so my own system fell under some other priorities of mostly maintenance.. and not really much if any liquidations, even though I am not going to deny that I have had some liquidations mostly since 2019.. which sometimes might cause me to reconsider if I might want to employ DCA tactics. and surely this latest drop below $20k (starting in about June 2022) caused me to invest with some new money that ended up falling in both categories of buying on dips and DCA.. but for me, it seems that I mostly had been structuring most of that cash in terms of the buying on dips category, since the vast majority of any extra BTC allocated cash that I had was spent supra $20k... seemingly like a large number of folks involved in BTC, I had mostly expected that the BTC price would not go below the 200-week moving average at all and then worser-case scenarios that it would ONLY dip for short periods below the 200-week moving average and likely not dip more than 10%-15% below the 200-week moving average and then our even worser case scenario ended up playing out in terms of both how long and how far the BTC price had dipped below the 200-week moving average, which ended up causing me to feel that I needed to authorize more value to be allocated towards BTC.. so yeah.. fucked up.. but since I had not been leveraging or anything like that, I felt that I was able to just reallocate more cash towards BTC buys (mostly in the buying on dips allocations, but perhaps some of that went into some token DCA purchases too)...
I haven't said anything about TRADING, well, maybe @dragonvslinux did, and it is for those with certain skills;
I am mostly focused on buying and less on selling.
Yes.. my responses regarding trading were mostly aimed at some of the points that dragonvslinux was making that to me seemed to have been fucking around with our parameters in similar ways that your dumb-ass inclusion of "normies should mine" messed around with what we were talking about in our hypothetical or at least how we were talking about BTC accumulation over the past 9 years or so that would largely had been attempting to focus on various ways to accumulate through buying. whether DCA or buying in gulps or some variations of comparing and contrasting buying/holding .. and not talking about trading and selling.. .. so yeah, I had figured that you and I had not gotten into talking about how selling might potentially contribute towards BTC accumulations levels that would beat a strict DCA amount, even though you personally seem to have been asserting that you "know about" methods to have had potentially systematically returned 150% greater returns than a strict DCA approach.. which I think that you are full of shit on that.. Sure, there are ways to beat strict DCA, but I really doubt that it is easy to beat strict DCA and/or to regularly beat strict DCA for the vast majority of normies - even if you personally might have been able to accomplish such 150% greater returns, but I think that you are probably not even engaging in Apples to Apples comparisons.. and if you might have averaged $411 per BTC over the past 9 years, that sounds kind of ridiculous to me when the hypothetical ONLY allows you to have $100 per week come available, so you would have had to borrow against your future earnings in 2015/2016 or some other bullshit like that (and you surely were not bullish enough about bitcoin in those years while you were too much of a fucking scaredy cat, so you would not have even done something like that.. but sure maybe you had that amount of money that you invested to have a $411 per BTC average and then you just restrained from buying BTC between 2017 and 2022.. and then proclaiming that you beat DCA because your numbers are better on your whimpy investment.. blah blah blah. You have made those kinds of non-specific assertions previously, so I would not put such assertions past you to make again in your desires to proclaim that buying in gulps is objectively and repeatedly better than DCA.. which largely seems to just amount to your comparing apples and oranges or selectively fucking around with the facts in order to get your better than DCA results.
Having three big "gulps" instead of just one allows for sudden macro situations a la March 2020.
I am not even opposed to maintaining some dry powder, and you are right to imply that there could be ways that someone who mostly employed the gulp approach to BTC investing/accumulation might have had more dry powder than a strict DCA'er when something like March 2020 came along... and there are a variety of ways to get there.. but if someone ONLY had $100 per week coming about that is available for investing into BTC, there might have been times along the way in which most of the dry powder would have been spent.. especially after the 2018 dip that maxed out in December 2018 and then we had another dip that maxed out in something like December 2019.. so how much dry powder would have been available in March 2020 if there had already been buys along the way.. Perhaps 3 months worth - between December 2019 and March 2020.. which would be like $1,200 to buy during the March 2020 dip, and maybe some folks could have held out and bought some BTC below $7,500, and then more below $6k and then would there be comfort to buy more in the $4k territory? And how much would that have beat DCA.. sure it is possible to beat DCA with a hybrid that involves buying on dips, but there are still actual time constraints regarding how much time that the vast majority of normies might want to spend trying to figure out when the dips come, how much of a dip and how much they might want to save for buying on dips rather than just mostly DCAing in order to largely create the level of aggressiveness that is comfortable for them, and if they believe in BTC fundamentals, they would likely already have created a DCA amount that allows them to be sufficiently aggressive and perhaps still set some buying on dips buy orders.. but they still may have well run out of money in the supra $6k levels in the March 2020 dip.. depending on how they reasonably might have had their whole situation set up that hopefully accounts for most of their individual financial and psychological circumstances - including but not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, how much BTC that they have accumulated in light of their other goals/circumstances, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.
This should work and I have a 'feeling' that some WO regs with extra fiat money are doing exactly this while being quiet until after they are satisfied with their new buying and content with their improved positions.
Well, hopefully the regular WO folks are tailoring their approach in ways that account for their own financial and psychological circumstances.. which surely the longer that they are in bitcoin, then the more that they should be able to tailor their approach, including that they may well end up graduating away from BTC accumulation to either a mostly maintenance mode or a liquidation mode.. and surely, market circumstances sometimes might cause their own perceptions of their movements (or emphasis of their strategies) between BTC accumulation, maintenance and/or liquidation modes.
Poll
