We are getting close to $25000. I think we might do it if you said that we would be pushing 25000 at the end of last year I probably would have said you was delusional. How times can change because we are nearly there and I think wit the positivity among the btc community I think we will reach it. That imo sets up a very good year and we should be in a good position already before the halving happens which could propel us higher then we have been before. I know JJG and I were talking about not doubling the other day but if you were to double it would be building a solid foundation before a halving and that is when you get a double price. I am not saying we will double I just think if we can break $25000 and continue increasing until the end of the year we will be in a very good position for prices to grow even more in 2024.
I hate to over-speak the point because I know that personally, I am talking out of both sides of my mouth.., and one thing is to imagine (or expect) a 2x per year on a sustainable basis; however another thing is the consider that a 2x to 5x or even a 10x could come out of a situation in which the BTC price had been suppressed for a period of time, including getting pushed below the 200-week moving average for 8 months.
Even though there are no guarantees, it seems that odds for 2x, 5x or 10x become a lot greater if our starting point is $15.5k versus if we are talking about a starting point of $69k... so part of my concerns about creating 2x on a sustainable basis remains the starting point and projecting forward from there, even though many of us long term bitcoiners likely realize that any particular year, we could end up getting 2x, 5x, 10x or even greater - and in part the possibility of those kinds of returns justifies a modest approach to BTC investing rather than balls-to-the walls investing - since if the large returns end up playing out, then there is not any necessity to take a lot of chances by leveraging or putting more than 50% of your assets into bitcoin when something more modest, such as 10% to 25% will do... so there are ways to prepare for both downside and upside and to prepare for upsides that might vary between modest and mediocre returns in the single digit percentages and include preparations for potential magnitudes of returns that may not end up happening... but if they do end up happening, it is better to have $50k into your BTC investment (even if it is ONLY 15% of your total investment portfolio) rather than having less than $5k into your BTC investment (which would only constitute 0.15%, when you could have easily invested much higher amounts an not really felt any pain from authorizing yourself with such a higher allocation).
The same thing would be true if you had invested $20k between 2013 and 2017 (and maybe that was 5% of your total investment portfolio), and you ended up having something like a $1k per BTC cost, sure you may well have been whimpy in your BTC allocation, and you ONLY had accumulated 20 BTC, yet you had retained some conviction and you did not reallocate your BTC back into other assets - even though the BTC had grown by 20x and your various other investments had ONLY doubled (if that?), and you continue to let your BTC ride, so still you might not be in a bad place, because your BTC allocation ended up going up double the size of the rest of your investments in your investment portfolio.
Since BTC has been and continues to be such a asymmetric bet to the upside, there are ways that even modestly aggressive investors into BTC can still end up profiting way more than those folks who failed/refused to allocate at all to bitcoin.
People can do whatever they want with bitcoin.. that's part of its greatness.. and they can even do dumb things.. if that's what they want to do and if they are willing to pay for the blocks, including if their competition for blockspace ends up raising the transaction costs for the rest of us, who are choosing NOT to do those seemingly "dumb" things.
Bitcoin gives no shits, so neither do I.
Let Philip and his cohort of fellow miners get rich as fuck due to greater on-chain blockchain space demand.. I don't care, and they are the ones who took the chances in terms of building out the mining network and their mining capacities, so doesn't bother me if they become double or triple the level of profits that they had expected to get and the rest of us doing transactions on the blockchain have to pay higher fees because all of the blocks are filled up..
Further more, even though in
the past one to two weeks there has been a rise in the onchain transaction fees, I doubt that we are reaching anything close to "outrageous" price levels, yet.
Maybe going to lightning network might help? Also, maybe figuring out how to make sure that you have options, including figuring out how to have options on the lightning network, might help too? Perhaps? perhaps?
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