Bitcoin Forum
March 29, 2024, 12:34:54 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 26.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
Total Voters: 68

Pages: « 1 ... 5967 5968 5969 5970 5971 5972 5973 5974 5975 5976 5977 5978 5979 5980 5981 5982 5983 5984 5985 5986 5987 5988 5989 5990 5991 5992 5993 5994 5995 5996 5997 5998 5999 6000 6001 6002 6003 6004 6005 6006 6007 6008 6009 6010 6011 6012 6013 6014 6015 6016 [6017] 6018 6019 6020 6021 6022 6023 6024 6025 6026 6027 6028 6029 6030 6031 6032 6033 6034 6035 6036 6037 6038 6039 6040 6041 6042 6043 6044 6045 6046 6047 6048 6049 6050 6051 6052 6053 6054 6055 6056 6057 6058 6059 6060 6061 6062 6063 6064 6065 6066 6067 ... 33206 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336995 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
envy2010
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 168
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:28:24 AM

Quote
It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.

A pair of 7970's would have mined about 150 BTC from Jan. 2012 to Jan. 2013, worth about $2000 USD then but almost $75000 USD now.
1711715694
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715694

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715694
Reply with quote  #2

1711715694
Report to moderator
1711715694
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715694

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715694
Reply with quote  #2

1711715694
Report to moderator
1711715694
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715694

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715694
Reply with quote  #2

1711715694
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
chessnut
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 924
Merit: 1001



View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:28:55 AM

market is so stagnant, I can only guess that support will hold. time is a bulls friend right now.
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:38:52 AM

market is so stagnant, I can only guess that support will hold. time is a bulls friend right now.

Why do you guess that?  This wave 4 is having a few problems.  Wink
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:42:10 AM


Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.



7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct?  If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it?  Did you have to retire it?  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?

It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.

Thanks... Yes, the devil is in the details.. it is not the size of the boat, its the motion of the ocean.. or whatever other factors concerning how the 7970s were used and then whether the proceeds were spent right away or saved.... Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?



Mk2vr6
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:43:25 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.


Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:50:53 AM

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.


Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

That's pretty hard won advice from people who've been there and done that.  

I'm sure we'd all love to be turning debts to dust within days. Perhaps a few on here can do it. The majority will soon end up on the wrong side of a trade and get deeper in the hole.

And your backup plan is to have half your worth in low priced alts? You may well score big on one but that's a massive amount of exposure for markets that are usually piddling and easily milked to death.


There are so many alts to chose from.

Each person has to chose their own comfort level in how diversified to be.  My portfolio is less than 10% in Crypto - however, if the price goes up, then I am going to allow my percentage to increase to 30 or 40% of my total investment(s).  I will reassess, my comfort level, ; however, Part of the reason that I invested in bitcoin was to diversify out of the dollar (b/c my other investments are largely, to my knowledge, tied to the success or failure of the dollar). 

From the crypto portion of my investments - less than 5% of that is invested into alts, and since there are so many alts... I am considering largely abandoning them (actually I am invested in small amounts of the 7 alts that are listed through BTC e).

Personally, I would suggest having an investment portfolio in your comfort zone... and to be sufficiently diversified so that you do NOT become desperate or overly stressed if one or more of your investments crash to zero or near zero in value.




PoolMinor
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1843
Merit: 1338


XXXVII Fnord is toast without bread


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:53:54 AM

Now there's a buy wall...










Edit:
From here
derpinheimer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 896
Merit: 1000


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:55:19 AM

Now there's a buy wall...




Where?

Oh, the tiny one on BTC-E?
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 01:58:37 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.


Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

I agree.  That is one piece of sound advice, artfully expressed.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2128
Merit: 1743


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:00:19 AM


Explanation
pjviitas
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:12:13 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.


Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

I agree.  That is one piece of sound advice, artfully expressed.

+1
JorgeStolfi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1003



View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:14:21 AM

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between [ the number of active wallets ]  and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014...   You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

If the number of active wallets N(T) was connected to the price P(T), in four months during which P(T) varied up and down several times, by 40% or more,  we would expect to see at least some corresponding variation in N(T).  I don't see that.

If we are supposed to look only at the long term (3 years) and ignore any deviations spanning 4 months or more, then the statement is not convincing because we get two steadily exponentially quantities, so that any other exponentially increasing quantity -- such as the increasing quantity of CO2 in the air -- would "explain" the increase inP(T) just as well as N(T).

selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price)

I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth.  Wink

Fuck..... You know [ ... ], Jorge, [... ] This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to [ ... ] That is hardly academic, random or objective...   YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December.  But it is not my fault, is it?  You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess.  Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes?  Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?
shmadz
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000


@theshmadz


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:17:23 AM


Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.



7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? No, it's a video card. If so, did it pay for itself, yes. and for how long were you able to use it? I'm still using it, but not for mining anymore, it still kicks some serious ass when it comes to video games though. Did you have to retire it? no.  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too? I will never sell this thing! It will be put in a museum some day!

My answers in RED   Grin
fr33d0miz3r
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:30:48 AM

Remember remember, the 5th of December

Post-Cosmic
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 175
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:39:28 AM

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

[..]

 Hmmm Roll Eyes  And how well I know, about them. Their posting, and trading/thought patterns, are predictable, at this point.

 ..What I haven't revealed so far is that I've read this thread almost exclusively, 15-30hrs a week on average, since Jan 11th this year. I literally read every page (good bit of skimming at times, admittedly - no other way, if going through that much..) since back when we were at the 3900's of posts & Arcas, Empowering, Luno, 'Doc' Holliday (I miss his wry humor..) & Goat/Loaded were still seen posting in here.

 I just made the acct not because I just 'discovered' trading or crypto/etc, but because I simply don't like to waste people's time w/ yet more repetitive dribble, there's already 6k of it in here ffs.. lol. If I'm gonna post, I want it to have some effort put into, so there's a small chance at least 1 person might find it of any value, instead of moar spam. So.. that effort? THAT is why I waited that long to make this acct. I procrastinated. The Activity:5 is a lie.. xD

 But, I love this place. I truly appreciate it, esp. TER, BJA, Keyser, Adam, Amino, Blitz & even Jorge & Fonzie's trollishness. And I did learn some tricks from it. Nevertheless, I find myself rolling my eyes knowingly, with a faint smirk, to all these ignorant grand proclamations of 'sUingle d1gitz dAwq' '$9.99' & '7-50k within 2014' from the same amused cognizance that all you veterans experience ;p  I just did it as a 'Guest', until yesterday.

 As for BTC itself, I didn't know it existed until Sept '13. In Oct. I knew about prices weekly. By Nov., I knew about them twice a day. In early Nov. I bought my very first BTC. In very late Nov., after some epiphany of curiosity & googling, & came upon Cryptsy. I sent them .01 only, thinking they may easily be a scam. After couple test trades & withdrawals went through fine, only then did I send moar in.

 I missed the wave. Could've been a thousandnaire like you guys by now had I got in most of these small-time alts back in Oct-to-Mid-Late-Nov at the latest. But by the time I was familiar w/ it all, it was too late. Nov 18 Congress 'endorsement' & all the crazy Cryptsy/alt price explosions had mostly taken place already, it was dumping time, and I indeed lost a good portion of the equity I had been lucky enough to make.

[..]

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low.


 I do panic-buy, and short, and sell. Too much in fact. But I've done too little before, too. A balance is crucial. Here's an example : The last time Stamp was around 533-537, that was a great time to get out. I didn't. I knew I should've, but held. The 540's high was not able to be reached again. It had to not only reach it, but BREAK thru it in order to be safely confident about a greater high, the new bull minitrend continuing, etc. It didn't even have the fuel to reach it. Obviously Huobi & Co are desperate to not correct further, and keep going up, but it's just not happening. The correction has to occur, and at least a moderate bit farther than merely 3020/481.

 I do over-invest, it's easier to be on the safer side of trading when one has more capital to play with. But that will come in due time. A good thing about smaller sums is that, well, if you do get wiped out, you can find the same small sum to invest again within a month or a quarter's wages. I've done it before, sadly, and it's far from people here's mortgages money & life savings etc Undecided

 Too desperate and you lose. Too complacent/long-term and you lose too. I've lost since 2005. (stocks & FX, not crypto....) Some years w/o any trading, some w/ holding on to bad practices, 'holding on' for 'long-term' in various ways. Balance is key, speaking from experience.

[..] Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5.


 No question. Too bad I was doing FX & not crypto, back in '11-'12 & most of '13.

[..] ..so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.


 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom  Kiss

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.
shmadz
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000


@theshmadz


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:42:34 AM

<snip>
 Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?


nope. you got me pegged, definitely NOT the saving type Wink

 I mined a bunch of different coins, and have almost none left. Luckily, if things go the way I hope they are gonna go, then "almost none" will be "just enough".
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between [ the number of active wallets ]  and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014...   You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

If the number of active wallets N(T) was connected to the price P(T), in four months during which P(T) varied up and down several times, by 40% or more,  we would expect to see at least some corresponding variation in N(T).  I don't see that.

If we are supposed to look only at the long term (3 years) and ignore any deviations spanning 4 months or more, then the statement is not convincing because we get two steadily exponentially quantities, so that any other exponentially increasing quantity -- such as the increasing quantity of CO2 in the air -- would "explain" the increase inP(T) just as well as N(T).


I agree with you that there can be a large number of variables, and some of the variables are 1) clearly and unambiguously connected, 2) likely connected, 3) likely not connected and 4) clearly NOT connected.

The mere fact that you may have NOT have seen any scintilla of evidence of a connection during your selected period of time, does NOT mean that the logical conclusion is that N(T) and P(T) are clearly NOT connected.  The explanation can be that there are larger overriding forces at play during that period of time that are interfering with the connection with N(T) and P(T). 

Great attempt to send this topic out on a wild goose chase, but neither of us have provided data to rebutt a claim of a connection or NOT; however, the claim sure as hell makes sense to me that if you get an increased number of users of bitcoin, then the price is likely going to go up with the increased number of users.  Even though wallets are NOT a direct measurement of users, it is a good enough approximation of there being an increase in the number of users... which will likely have a direct correlating positive effect on BTC prices (at least that seems to be the theory that Aminorex was postulating).












selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price)

I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth.  Wink

Again, you seem to be striving to take this on some wild goose chase by making some extreme example....  However, your extreme example seems to work against you and to support my argument about what you are doing by your time selectivity.

 Let me see if I can use the same example to help to clarify the point.

You are correct that if we compare the USA economy over 600 years to the last 6 months in order to make some kind of a point, then that point is going to be lost b/c a lot has gone on in 600 years that may or may NOT be helpful.

I am merely telling you that it is NOT a good idea to continue to begin from the top of the bubble to make your repetitive points.  I think that you are doing it on purpose in order to communicate about jibberish... and maybe I should NOT be entertaining you (or as they say feeding the trolls).  Certainly, you seem smart enough to know better and to pick some more meaningful time period, instead of trying to exaggerate to the max... when you exaggerate to the max, then you lose any sense of credibility or objectivity in my reading.. and you are also distracting and confusing others who may NOT realize the extent of your selectivity in making your supposedly academic points.  I have NO idea about whether you are really a professor, like you claim to be, yet certainly, you seem to be doing much disservice to academics by projecting yourself as such in the bitcoin sphere... you frequently take the posters in this thread away from actual facts with your skewed and seemingly disingenuous spins that are subtle enough to sometimes miss b/c frequently, your presentations are packaged with a decent and comprehensive organization.. with good English...

I would imagine if you really are a professor in Brazil, then you teach in portuguese, not in english.. so how come your english is so good?









Fuck..... You know [ ... ], Jorge, [... ] This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to [ ... ] That is hardly academic, random or objective...   YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December.  But it is not my fault, is it?  You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess.  Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes?  Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?


First of all.. why did you edit out some of the text of my earlier post?

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Third:  You are correct that I am frustrated by the ongoing downtrend in BTC prices since December, but my frustration about BTC prices downtrending is NOT a motivation for me to comment upon your post(s).  Overall, I feel pretty comfortable that my investment strategy is going to pay off fairly lucratively - even though I am putting more time into monitoring and tweaking my investment plan b/c of the various aspects of the BTC price performance since December 2013.  You know that in the end, my time will likely pay off pretty well too.. b/c I have accumulated way more bitcoins than I had expected that I would be able to accumulate... ... anyhow, time will tell about my bitcoin investment, and I am NOT too worried yet.. even though I remain a bit frustrated.. as you mentioned.

The rest of your content here.. is merely humor that is seemly directed at my expense.  I did find it quite a bit funny, even though irrelevant, and NOT really applicable to me, but still fairly artfully presented... so yes, made me chuckle a little bit at getting some misdirected attention.   Cheesy   Grin



JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:51:13 AM


Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.



7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? No, it's a video card. If so, did it pay for itself, yes. and for how long were you able to use it? I'm still using it, but not for mining anymore, it still kicks some serious ass when it comes to video games though. Did you have to retire it? no.  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too? I will never sell this thing! It will be put in a museum some day!

My answers in RED   Grin



Thanks... for your responses.

I agree that you get even a bigger bonus out of your purchase of the item (the 7970) if you are able to multi-purpose it.





Post-Cosmic
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 175
Merit: 100


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 02:56:01 AM

selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price)

I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth.  Wink

Fuck..... You know [ ... ], Jorge, [... ] This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to [ ... ] That is hardly academic, random or objective...   YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December.  But it is not my fault, is it?  You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess.  Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes?  Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?


Epic guile in sarcasm. Lolol BT Goddess. Anyhow, while it's true that b/c crypto is such a groundbreaking innovation, a necessary, long-coming idea, that it's no wonder the last 3-4 years have been a rocket launch for both market price & economic adoption, advocating 'long-term' near-blindly is only fine & dandy until you realize you're not a vampire or multicentennial android or alien - and so, do you really want to wait possibly decades..??
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2128
Merit: 1743


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
April 18, 2014, 03:00:19 AM


Explanation
Pages: « 1 ... 5967 5968 5969 5970 5971 5972 5973 5974 5975 5976 5977 5978 5979 5980 5981 5982 5983 5984 5985 5986 5987 5988 5989 5990 5991 5992 5993 5994 5995 5996 5997 5998 5999 6000 6001 6002 6003 6004 6005 6006 6007 6008 6009 6010 6011 6012 6013 6014 6015 6016 [6017] 6018 6019 6020 6021 6022 6023 6024 6025 6026 6027 6028 6029 6030 6031 6032 6033 6034 6035 6036 6037 6038 6039 6040 6041 6042 6043 6044 6045 6046 6047 6048 6049 6050 6051 6052 6053 6054 6055 6056 6057 6058 6059 6060 6061 6062 6063 6064 6065 6066 6067 ... 33206 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!