Maybe tweak your plan a bit, but don't go overboard in your rethinking and then tweaking it too much in the opposite direction, unless you have compelling reasons for coming to your new thinking (such as realizing that you were too much of a "whimp" in the earlier plan.. hahahahahaha.. ... I have a forum member to whom I could refer you.).
Well it's a bit like that actually. I'm getting corn out of various places to "consolidate" (not on the same addys) and seeing the amount displayed in dollars changes my perspective a bit.
Over the years that we have been having our back and forth discussions, we should have already known that these kinds of days would be coming, and yeah, I understand that it can be somewhat shocking for all of us, while it is happening and even while we already largely expected it to happen, but it remains awe-inspiring to witness the actual movement of value.. and we start to see what seems to be compounding and/or exponential payoffs of our previous hard work of stacking (which causes some guys to regret not having had stacked hard enough).
My plan wasn't well established aside from "BTC is my retirement plan".
It is not easy to get too specific in our plans about value that has not yet been realized, so it becomes more concrete when we see the results and we see we have the option to convert parts of it, or let it ride or maybe to re-figure our previous framework.
I don't want to retire in my old age but I figured there was still a few years of grinding. Incidentally part of my change of thinking isn't even related to BTC but to my stock portfolio, it's doing so nicely that I decided I didn't want to put everything into buying a house, I'm looking at cheaper houses, making compromises on the commute time to my workplace.
I have property and stocks too, and they have largely been doing o.k.. but I still think that they largely perform similarly to the dollar, so there likely is no real appreciation in those assets - so I cannot say whether you are overly distracted (or diluted in your investment) or not.... yet we are likely going to have periods of decently large correlation of bitcoin and other investment assets, but it seems that we have been going through a period of decoupling.. and yeah, we will likely go back to being short-term correlated with stocks again, but ONLY after we have done a decently large step up in our underlying values. So hopefully you are not too distracted by that largely meaningless appreciation of other assets that likely is merely just keeping up with the debasement of the dollar rather than excelling beyond, like bitcoin has been doing and likely will continue to do from time to time, even when we might not know exactly when the excelling beyond is going to be playing out because sometimes the stair-steps are somewhat subtle in the short-term but way more obvious in the longer term.. or look at the 200WMA for these kinds of valuations to see the constant plodding of UPPity that in no fucking way is correlated to the stock market or property in the longer run, even if there are distractions of such in the shorter run.
I haven't bought the house yet so I have 5-10 years living expenses in cash.
Does not sound like a great way to save for a house. If you had that value in bitcoin, it would have had gone up 4x in the last 16 months or so, and it would have gone up around 10x or more in the last 4 years... so there is no other investment like it.. and let's say your income is $40k per year, and if you have 5 years saved up in 2020 (which is $200k) and if that would have had been in bitcoin, then that would currently be right around $2 million (at least spot price - and yeah only a bit under $1million if we go by the 200WMA.. but still not a bad place to be or to keep value, even if you might have some specific reasons down the road that you might want to draw upon some of that value that you had put in bitcoin.
Maybe I am understanding what you are saying incorrectly, but I cannot see how keeping much value in cash is very helpful, even if you were to be earning 3-5% on it which might off-set some of its depreciation, but still problematic, even though one of the values of cash is that it is very liquid, but i am not sure how much value it is to have more than a couple of years in cash at most, and largely that might be for some somewhat pre-established reasons.. such as buying dips or things like that... or if there might be some uncertainties with your cashflow and/or your expenses.
BTC isn't high enough (and can/will go lower) yet for me to live off my stash but I have much more confidence it will be high enough in 5 years or less.
I still think that using the 200-wma to valuate your BTC is the better practice in terms of figuring out the extent to which it is sustainable, even though surely you will be selling (and/or shaving some off) at spot price from time to time once you start to employ those kinds of tactics.
By the way, my updated
fuck you status chart that I have not yet posted shows the BTC bottom to be right around $150k in 5 years.. so that presumes that the BTC price could well have decently good chances to be around 25% to 66% higher than the presumptive bottom. .. of course, we really don't know but we can project out some possible frameworks in terms of how to think about these kinds of matters and/or how to plan our possible future budgets.
So do I continue grinding at work or not ?
well you should be at fuck you status including valuating all of your assets and from where you would get your income... so only you can calculate that. It would not be good to pull the fuck you lever too soon.. but if you valuate your assets well, you may be able to pull the fuck you status at an earlier point than you might otherwise expect, and I think that bitcoin gives more power in that direction rather than traditional assets, but you still likely have to get to a certain amount based on your own entry-level fuck you status, and how much of a cushion you believe that you might need (if any).
It's not like I'm making significant money, DCAing at current prices isn't even worth it for what I could get. And my job is boring.
All things worthy of consideration.
If I had something that really was compelling and well paid I wouldn't think about it and continue a bit to be on the safe side, while enjoying myself on vacations etc., but that's not how it is.
I am not sure how you are calculating this.
Do I still buy the house, get enjoyment out of that, look for another job, just quit this one after giving it some more months, keeping the possibility to get another job if things go wrong.
There can be value in keeping the job or income source while you are still building your nestegg, and I had a business that I mostly liquidated in 2019 - but due to some of my considerations to expedite the process in terms that it was taking too much of my time and not really worth all of the headache.
Do I leave everything and go to Thailand or something (heard there is a new tax law I have to look into it) ?
One thing I might do is take a vacation there, that would help the thinking. When I spent 2 weeks in Vietnam in 2018 I didn't want to leave...
Some areas have better costs of living, but there still can be expenses in terms of living somewhere that might not always be part of the calculation. but still a lot of that should be calculable.
[...] So do I continue grinding at work or not ? It's not like I'm making significant money, DCAing at current prices isn't even worth it for what I could get. And my job is boring. If I had something that really was compelling and well paid I wouldn't think about it and continue a bit to be on the safe side, while enjoying myself on vacations etc., but that's not how it is. [...]
Don't be discouraged. Do you like to earn 10x from what you are earning today? Start dumping your salary into bitcoin and thank your past self later, there is plenty of upside left.
I like the spirit, but I don't think that it quite works like that but we did not narrow down the timeline or if your idea includes living off the investment in a sustainable way or drawing down on the principle.. so living sustainable will bring down the multiple, but it still could still allow for living off of the appreciation of the principle because bitcoin seems to perform quite well in that regard. but any of us following such procedure still needs to get up to a certain amount invested and and then expect bitcoin to continue to appreciate, which likely is going to be the case..
so a fairly aggressive investment approach to bitcoin might be to invest 25% or more of your salary into bitcoin, but with that formula it would still take 4 years to get 1 year's salary invested.
Ya, funny how a few days ago this price would have had people screaming that this is a monster rally. Now suddenly it’s all over and everyone should sell. While I don’t doubt there will be a correction here, I think it will be short lived. There is just too much money flooding in and the halving will be here in no time.
Correct post
Except………… nobody but absolutely nobody says anyone should be selling 😅
I was planning to install Solar system in my home for last 2 years because electricity prices are too high and there is lots of load shedding specially in summers. Temperature goes high to 40 - 45 Celsius here (Pakistan). This bull run is a blessing for me as I have acquired necessary funds to finance a solar system that can run 2 Inverter Split AC. I feel so happy while placing the order today.
Big thanks to
BTC and an example of how Bitcoin is helping people in improving there living standards.
Hopefully it is ONLY a small part of your BTC stash since it does not seem to be a great time to be selling BTC... to each their own.
[...] So do I continue grinding at work or not ? It's not like I'm making significant money, DCAing at current prices isn't even worth it for what I could get. And my job is boring. If I had something that really was compelling and well paid I wouldn't think about it and continue a bit to be on the safe side, while enjoying myself on vacations etc., but that's not how it is. [...]
Don't be discouraged. Do you like to earn 10x from what you are earning today? Start dumping your salary into bitcoin and thank your past self later, there is plenty of upside left.
There is another issue with that, I've stopped sending money to my usual exchange because it's traceable, and I haven't found a way to buy BTC with cash.
Well? you have to have ways into and out of your investment... so if you are creating obstacles for yourself you might be causing yourself to be way more under-exposed to bitcoin than you could be and/or should be.
Jeeesus. A simple "yes" or "no" would have sufficed. If AI is to be the death of us, I predict it will be death by words.
WO members not affected... if you survived JJG any
other AI text is child's play.
Interesting choice of words. "other?"
Poll
