Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[p0peji]

I am getting more and more the feeling that we are getting played by the Chinese.

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[oda.krell]

Quality TA. AAA+++. Would post again in risto's thread.

[dreamspark]

Green lines even when price is declining, I like that!

[sleger]

I do not know what the price will be but the log brownian model does NOT say that (I am just repeating myself here) ...

Look at a call closed formula price, N(d2) represents the probability of the call being in the money, if you put S=K (our example here) you are left with N(something negative) which means that the probability that the price ends up above current value is ... less than 50% !
And below current value is ... more than 50%.

I don't understand your notation, here is mine

Basically, in the log-Brownian model the difference between successive values of Z(i) = log(P(i)) are independent random variables with probability distributions that are symmetric about zero.  Therefore after any number n of steps the probability distribution of Z(i+n) will be symmstric about the starting value Z(i).  That means Z(i+n) wil be less than Z(i) with 50% probability.  Since log is monotonic, it preserves cumulative probabilities, therefore P(i+n) will be less than P(i) with 50% probability.  What is wrong with this argument?  

(Strictly speaking, "Brownian" requires a normal distribution of increments with zero mean and fixed variance.  In practice the variance varies slowly and the distributions have fatter tails than the norma; but by the law of large numbers they become near-normal for large n.)

My notation is the standard financial notation as found under wikipedia black-scholes article (S=spot price, K=strike ...). So now you have my notation please take a look at my argument again.

To come back to yours, I think the error is in the first sentence : "the difference between successive values of Z(i) = log(P(i)) are independent random variables with probability distributions that are symmetric about zero"
Small proof: under log brownian (with no drift)  the important basic concept is that the best expectation of price in the future is the current value of the price. Your hypothesis does not respect that.
For instance let's say Pi=exp(1) so Z(i)=1, now we simulate a 1 step tree with 50% chance of going up 0.1 and 50% chance of going down 0.1 to simplify (doesnt change the result), and we compute Expectation[P(i+1)] which should be equal to exp(1). Well, Expectation[P(i+1)]=0.5*exp(1.1)+0.5*exp(0.9) which is not exp(1).

Also you can ask any bank quant, under simple log brownian mode, an at the money binary option (pays 1 if stock is above, 0 below) its theoretical price is strictly less than 0.5, which is exactly the probability of ending above current value, which is also exactly the value of the N(d2) I mentioned in my post before.

[p0peji]

Next up is a small rise on low volume until we hit 7am european time and we get another massive dump...

[cAPSLOCK]

Green lines even when price is declining, I like that!

Escher charting.  And I think the initial spike is supposed to have a little bit of time warping gangsta lean.

[gizmoh]

I am getting more and more the feeling that we are getting played by the Chinese.

Agreed, Prices should have remained sub 200, its chinese fault that we rallied to absurd 1k ATH!  

[p0peji]

I am getting more and more the feeling that we are getting played by the Chinese.

Agreed, Prices should have remained sub 200, its chinese fault that we rallied to absurd 1k ATH!  

Ok, that was MT gox manipulation.

[xulescu]

plot

I scrolled up but couldn't see where your second candle ends. Try to log your graph? Or do you need to log-star it?

I put it in log scale and it still bounded at the same point on the upside.

I see what you did there. Now prove the hydra game in Peano arithmetic

[Raystonn]

We have breached 472.50.  If we continue lower, the next major supports are at 454, 400, and 355.50.

If there was supposed to be support at 472 and it didn't materialize, why in the world would you believe other magic numbers will work?

There was some support there.  It was the 7-day low.  That support didn't last very long.
The 454 support was the low around 10 days ago.  But it also won't have a whole lot of support.  It could hold if selling is running out of steam.
Beyond that we're looking at 355.50 as a very strong support.  It's the 5-month low from November.

We seem to have found some support at the $454 level mentioned earlier.  Other supports are $400 and $355.50, as covered above.

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

Cash requires an in-person transaction with someone who has BTC.  This doesn't scale and risks those involved.  We need something else.

localbitoins.com

cash deposit at a local bank, no face to face.

About a 5% markup, depending on from whom you buy.

[igorr]

Green lines even when price is declining, I like that!

LOL,
Wishes and Dreams

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Looks legit.

[Blue]

Green lines even when price is declining, I like that!

[real optimism @ work (unhampered by stupid reality!!) ]

[dropt]

I am getting more and more the feeling that we are getting played by the Chinese.

Agreed, Prices should have remained sub 200, its chinese fault that we rallied to absurd 1k ATH!  

Ok, that was MT gox manipulation.

+1

[latoxine]

Hello guys,

I'm french, ( french forum talk about everything except coins...)

-I placed an order at 448 this morning on Kraken, and I realised that it passed while I was eating at restaurant...I would have canceled it when I see how it's going down, but it's done, my first BTC !



So what would you do if you had about 950 dollars to buy BTC? Buy now ? Wait ?

[_javi_]

what did i miss??
fiatleak.com shows LOTS of bitcoin heading to China...

all your coins belong to us... they say

[Jomppe]

Hello guys,

I'm french, ( french forum talk about everything except coins...)

-I placed an order at 448 this morning on Kraken, and I realised that it passed while I was eating at restaurant...I would have canceled it when I see how it's going down, but it's done, my first BTC !



So what would you do if you had about 950 dollars to buy BTC? Buy now ? Wait ?

Buy.
There is a high chance BTC will be priced 7000 USD by the end of this year. When the rise starts, it will be tremendous based on previous rises.

[threecats]

Can anyone who has read the different announcements today speak to the issue of whether chinese will have problems getting cash off exchanges in the near future, i.e. a Gox type situation where coins are the  only way out?