Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Greyhats]

I figure 200k or bust in the next 8-9 months

If it hits $200K in the next 9 months it’ll be me that busts.

Even I am getting more pessimistic about the upside potential for dee cornz for this cycle..

I guess our spending so much time in this no man's land and/or in don't wake me up zone (which seems a bit out of character for dee cornz), has contributed to some jadedness in my own thinking, even though being stuck in this particular price zone should not even be that negative of a sign or happening.. bouncing around at mostly the top of the range.. .... but still.. sometimes these kinds of periods can have a kind of wearing effect, even if some of us might still remain relatively optimistic.. it is not like I am selling an cornz.. ,,, and tending to buy more than I sell in the whole scheme of things.. . but still..

I guess ignorance really is a bliss.
My outlook was that the wait was a warm up before a shoot.
Fortunately this ain't the only cycle, there are more to come and we just hope for good health and long Life to enjoy them.
I'm still optimistic never the less
The frequency of my DCA has increased now because I don't want to be asked by my kids in the future "Daddy where were you when others were buying Bitcoin "
Don't wanna increase my numbers of regrets.

Right there with you ambatman. I'd set some lofty but achievable goals back in 2021 about where I wanted my stack size to be by mid point 2025. I'm at that accumulation point now, where I have exceeded these goals a year early. I definitely feel a little bit like I will have over accumulated by mid 2025, but I'm continuing along with my plan. I'm in it for long haul, and so far so good.

Whenever choppiness comes up in the price, I always go back to the 200 WMA and go are we uppity,downity or matchity to it so there is some comfort here at the moment with 34k 200 wma vs 56-62k short -term range we are in now. The MM's really dont like it to go above 60k for some reason, hopefully the degens get rekt soon.

Recently and I dont think saw this anywhere, a poster(tighttighttightyea) on reddit did an analysis of perceived avg cost price for etf buyers, and its sitting around avg 56.5k. Here is the link.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZgh5gi9gM3sr1mjoT6Fv9oeESra81TrNtVW__uX8H4/edit?usp=sharing

The etf buyers can't really use 200 wma for comfort so what are they using?

 

[philipma1957]

[...]

and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.

[...]

Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.

well much like gold or silver or oil companies will not full stop.


the difference is btc in a wallet fully needs active mining to stay "alive"

the oz of gold in the bar in my house does not need active mining to stay a gold bar.

So when supply + demand people say it's all in demand for price. it is not the same fundamentals as the demand for gold.

btc supply new and old  needs active mining

gold supply new needs active mining old does not.


I think this is basically ignored in loyce and jjg's models  for btc price.


mining of btc can 2x affect supply which surely will affect demand directly much more than gold.


yeah to think mining losing profit and dropping from 660eh to 330eh won't be a direct affect on price is quite naive.

last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.



oh and a nice bart as price drops to 59k

[gallianooo]

Back again below 60K....

Boring BTC charts until Q4 ? 

[psycodad]

The little green trees of the devil do not count!
https://vimeo.com/378976033

Vimeo: Video is not rated. Log in to watch.
The hell I'll sign up for this.

Is it this one?
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7ae104eb-9954-489b-8e51-fd07d2274a46

Strange, I never had an account and never needed to login to see flics.

But yeah, this one 

[El duderino_]

@quintenfrancois
Germany selling done✅
GBTC sold nothing yesterday✅

Global Liquidity is about to explode again

FTX creditors soon recieving $16 billion in cash from which a lot will flow into $BTC

#Bitcoin supply on exchanges are historically low

Institutions are stacking more than the 450 $BTC mined per day

Boring summer months are almost over

The bullrun is about to start 💥

https://x.com/quintenfrancois/status/1825807790109036671

Do something, Bitcoin……

But first lets pass the slaughterhouse....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

But I have had plenty of beef steak 🥩.

I really want to have some bear 🐻 steak 🥩.

[BobLawblaw]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[STT]

[...]

and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.

[...]

Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.

I dont see mining activity reducing to zero is ever a threat.  I'll go back to mining if really needed its only that others came in with bigger machines that saw off the little people.   We can always revert if need be, my elec is often free surplus and around the world at some times of day that is generally true.   So many have both the hardware, software, connections all of that has become more capable, available cheaper in the last decade then also free elec; someone will always do the mining even if it was at a small price or profit.
   Alot of people started off on SETI unit work as I remember, we got nothing just a snazzy screensaver for our troubles  

Lagging around daily EMA 200

Lag or any reaction around a moving average isnt a real move, theres no volume there in particular its just an average.   I prefer simple but either way it is just an indicator trying to relay momentum in price over that time period.   I forget the reasoning given maybe weighting but simple over exponential is what I was told is best to use plus just more people use simple and its best to be aware of what the crowd is following if nothing else.

58.1k is the closing low for the last 7 weeks (arguably most of 2024), thats the line Im watching.   I do not imagine BTC intends to 'go gentle into that good night' & much rage at the dying of the light.  No simple transition as we change season.

Descending triangle on the daily bars, which is not important by itself or certain even but bigger then that I think on weekly for almost 6 months this TA chart pattern fits a fair description ongoing and in prospective price action: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broadeningformation.asp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Dixie_(AD-14)

44 years of active use is massively impressive

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

About having rich problems, a billionaire just died (along with others including his 18yo daughter) in the freak sinking of a superyacht.

Last year there was also the one (also with his 18yo kid) who died in a dodgy submarine...

I've done plenty of sailing and never came close to dying, oh well.

The billionaire was involved in many fraud cases and his partner died suspiciously just a couple weeks ago. Clearly this was not a boating accident, nor did he die as a result of sinking. He was very clearly murdered along with his business partner, but I don’t expect we’ll see any arrests anytime soon. It’s dangerous being rich.

[Alphakilo]

This is like me saying, "Ah yes, to the moon! No, wait... I'm crashing!"
Whatever, it cool though. We've been through this before.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[jojo69]

[Paashaas]

Summer ends next month means 4 weeks+ of depressing bear market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

Summer ends next month means 4 weeks+ of depressing bear market.

October is almost always a mega green dildo.

Let's hope for it.

I turn my candles orange and purple. For that Spooktober feeling.