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I sometimes still have some problems with shaving some off, since I will become tempted to do spend and replace with my sales, even if maybe I might not replace as quickly as I used to do historical, but instead I will just put the replacement amount as some kind of a dip price (adding the amounts to my buy on the way down kind of BTC buy
orders).
Its really hard to imagine shaving anything off my stack which is very strange considering I will reduce stocks if i'm over exposed but I do think that I probably wont sell and buy back in the near term. I'm still trying to get my head around selling some, I haven't sold one satoshi since starting this, feels like bad omen when I finally do though.
Of course, there are likely going to be various ways in which our individual situations are sufficiently different in order to contribute towards different motivations. I had always wanted to transact in bitcoin when possible, so I attempted to do spend and replace whenever situations would present themselves, and even these days if I find some ways to spend bitcoin, I will consider spend and replace, yet with the passage of time, I have become quite a bit less obsessed with any need to replace in a timely manner, and surely I think that part of the reason is that I feel that I have been largely over allocated since 2014, yet maybe if we say that overallocation does not really count until you are in profits, and since the totality of my portfolio was clearly not in profits in 2014 and 2015, and it was only ambiguously in profits in some ways of calculating it 2016, and perhaps it did not become clearly and ambiguously in profits until early 2017.., so levels of being in profits can also help to supplement ideas of overallocation and change mentality in regards to feeling o.k. with engaging in various shavings.
If you think about it, even better case scenarios of your ongoing accumulation for more than three years may well make it difficult for your average cost per BTC to be below $30k per coin, and so at best you would be around 2x in profits, as compared to my having had been through the 2017 price rise (and then really failure to go below 3x of my costs - if we are roughly concluding my costs per BTC to be in the ballpark of $1k per coin), and so if you think about it, I had been dealing with a 2018, 2019, 2020 dip that at most brought me to 3x in profits, yet much of the time, my holdings were in the 6x to 8x profits in 2018, 2019 and 2020 with various spurts to 10x and 13x in profits, so it becomes less of a concern that I am really losing much by shaving off some coins here and there along the way, if I were to have to, but at the same time, I still mostly would error on the side of continuing to HODL rather than shaving any off.
So then as the profits become even greater, there seems to be even less worry to shave off some coins along the way, since the rise in 2021 had a couple of periods of taking my holdings to 60x and 70x in profits, and even the severity of the 2022 correction was at most bringing my holdings back down to 15/16x in profits..and sure there were threats to lose more of the profits that did not end up materializing, so yeah maybe there develops some reluctance to sell at bottoms, but there also is not really any major fear that selling at the bottom (even with only 15x/16x profits) would prejudice my BTC holdings in any significant and/or material way. Of course, I did not sell any bitcoin at the bottom of the dip, and so I have been largely continuing to hold, so you should be able to imagine less and less reluctancy in terms of shaving off some profits...
and sure, there might be some better understanding if knowing the actual number of BTC, which many of us do not tend to share those kinds of details, and so we merely think in terms of percent which should be enough to help to concretize the numbers, even if you might want to imagine if that the amount could be 1 BTC or 10 BTC or some other number, such as the more than 0.63 BTC that I frequently like to mention.
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Gresham's law would suggest to spend from other sources prior to starting to draw from your bitcoin and also the more than your bitcoin sits without you drawing from it, then it should be in a position to tolerate higher and higher levels of withdrawal whether you make such withdrawals in a price based approach or in a time-based approach.
I'm setup like this, I almost imagine its like trench warfare and the artillery at the back is my BTC. Then all the trenches like front line, reserve line, medics camps etc are all the things I will have to go through to even get near the artillery!
There is a point though that I will start withdrawing from, for now its more time based but who knows what will happen in the future. I would really like to go through one more full cycle before starting any withdrawals but lets see what happens.
I frequently like to think that a couple of cycles make more sense than one cycle in terms of the time-based withdrawal, yet with price based withdraw, I think that there might be more flexibility on that.. yet surely, each of us have our own particulars that we might be trying to address in terms of whatever might be our various current cashflow options that would be used prior to even using the BTC as you mentioned..
@Greyhats: Immediately stop your BTC accumulations!!!!!, and don't go into an overaccumulation status.. it is not worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already have more BTC than him..., which should be the opposite. hahahahahahaha).
Oh noooooesssss what will i do!
I had been thinking that I should have had said that "this is investment advice" even though it started with Phil.. I was the one repeating it.. so I should take some credit.. I know that some times guys get mad at me when I fail/refuse to put the lol in there or the Jk.. .. so each of us has to figure out how are we going to balance our investment portfolios or our bitcoin allocations based on all the available information, whether correct or incorrect and we also have to figure out the "seriously?" part.
Poor Phillip ya give him a lot of crap hah, but ya know around the time he was saying buy bonds I was like eh no I'm buying BTC. For now and hopefully forever that was the right decision!
Yeah, Philipma1957 seems to really come out with some doozies, especially when we have a bitcoin audience here, including that some guys might still be in their early stacking years, and it is not easy to keep stacking for a whole cycle, which frequently is needed in order to even get to a place in which the BTC accumulator will have accumulated enough BTC in order to really start to see the additional options that become available to him mostly because he stayed focused on stacking sats and did not get overly distracted into other assets and/or currencies, and even worse to get distracted into shitcoins, though I am having my doubts about IBONDs being very much better than some of the shitcoins that might have been a better thing to stack since a lot of shitcoins are at least somewhat correlated to bitcoin (not trying to speak too positively about any shitcoins, but just trying to be realistic in terms of comparative performance of US IBonds compared with bitcoin or with some of the shitcoins that might have also outperformed the US IBonds based on there being more correlated to bitcoin.. even though shitcoins are more likely to have rug pulls too...or other uncertain dumping circumstances).
Of course, we also know that bitcoin is not guaranteed as an investment, yet historically those who have focused on accumulating and holding over a couple of cycles have tended to do quite well in terms of even bitcoins historical compounding of value, even if there might be several doublings of bitcoin's value (price) the compounding starts to add up, and those guys who are cashing out every year (which Phil has historically done that) and still has difficulties thinking about not cashing out every year, so the guys cashing out every year have been disadvantaged in terms concretely experiencing the doublings because they sell and rebuy and they are likely ongoingly raising their base and failing/refusing to accumulate bitcoin. There is no evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting weaker, and in fact there are several ways bitcoin's investment thesis is getting stronger, even though surely the steepness of bitcoin's upward exponential price curve is likely lessening with the passage of time.
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