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November 02, 2025, 07:26:04 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26870682 times)
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BTCETFInvestor
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August 31, 2025, 02:45:58 PM

new members are becoming more rare

Only quality members are.


@d_eddie - Correct! Quality members are becoming more rare because they're being run off with harassment by OGs that think it's fun to treat newcomers like shit.

Open your fucking eyes to see what is happening to this place! It has gotten a terrible reputation and rightly so... 
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August 31, 2025, 03:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
psycodad
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August 31, 2025, 03:04:16 PM

That’s the thing
We have no desires for newcomers in the WO
Should be obvious
Enough space on the forum to be around imho

Can't hide ignorance! This place is so teeming with it, it's blinding you...  

It's perfectly possible that this place is teeming with ignorance, but then why in f*cks sake do you insist in sticking around when you dislike the place that much?

It's like a serious question: If we're all so ignorant and unfriendly, why not just move on to a place where you feel appropriately welcome and treated in a way that you perceive as friendly?

I'll take Richy_T's recommendation and tell you, FUCK YOU!

Thank you for your well-reasoned, thoughtful and articulate reply.
You really know very well how to make it on a specific list of members that every user here maintains for himself.
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August 31, 2025, 03:07:48 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (21), JimboToronto (2), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), Gachapin (1)

I'll take Richy_T's recommendation and tell you, FUCK YOU!

Good start but one other piece of advice, if I could give it, would be to develop a thick skin. The internet's a rough place but none of it is real.
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August 31, 2025, 03:28:22 PM

There have been good articles lately that cover all the scenarios, this one in particular caught my attention:



Quote
Back in 2017, that retest marked the final shakeout before BTC price rocketed to $20,000.

Fast-forward to today, and Bitcoin is once again hovering near a multimonth base between $105,000 and $110,000, a level that could be the launchpad for another parabolic leg upward.

I also like the idea that in 4 or 6 more weeks the price of BTC could rise.



Quote
Analyst ZYN suggests that Bitcoin could be on track for a fresh all-time high above $124,500 within the next 4–6 weeks, owing to these technical patterns that justify a potential rally in September.



cointelegraph:https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-bitcoin-price-drop-in-september


I've seen a lot of negativity from many analysts, people give up quickly.
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August 31, 2025, 03:41:44 PM
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Quote
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   912567  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   105.3758%  (1336 / 1267.84 expected, 68.16 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   129435235580344.8                            
Current Difficulty:   129699156960680.9                            
Next Difficulty:   between 136180142908989 and 137059376267681
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.9969% and +5.6748%
Previous Retarget:   August 22, 2025 at 4:12 PM  (+0.2039%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 11:03 PM  (in 4d 11h 33m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 1:00 AM  (in 4d 13h 30m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 6h 51m 32s and 13d 8h 48m 32s


5.4% growth in hash = large investment

 over  6 eh or

6000 ph

or

6,000,000 th. this is about 22,222 s21xp's or

$133,333,333  in gear that will burn   77,777kwatts an hour or  4,666 usd an hour which is 111,998 a day or 3,359,966 a month.


It is a lot to be sentient the system and it will bring us to well over 135T which will be a new record.
So serious money is coming in the form of mining.


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August 31, 2025, 04:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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August 31, 2025, 04:03:51 PM



Bitcoin may be creating another chapter from the beginning of the month. My chapter of preparation is still at the end.
Gooooo .... Holding Bitcoin.

Those who neglected me will be looking for me in the future.
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August 31, 2025, 04:06:14 PM
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I'll take Richy_T's recommendation and tell you, FUCK YOU!

Good start but one other piece of advice, if I could give it, would be to develop a thick skin. The internet's a rough place but none of it is real.

Richy - I do indeed have a thick skin, having been around a long time to see and be exposed to pretty much everything possible on the Internet.

What I have no interest in, or patience with, is dealing with stupid people that intentionally actually enjoy being bullies to people when there is no need for such action. Those are the scumbags in our society that need to be taught a serious lesson. Maybe karma will determine their future!

I came here as a friend to all and asked a friendly question to the poster offering info on the radio garden website and I shared info about a hobby in which immediately a half dozen OGs attacked my integrity. Do you think that is a proper way to treat a newcomer that presented no harm or ill-intentions to anyone?           


Man, you really don't get it... Yes, some people here are kind of old and bitchy... but the simple fact is you have come to play in our sandbox. Multiple members gave you slight hints on how you were being disruptive. But you are either very proud or very retarded (not sure which). Either way, you have to realize some of us here have been here for a decade or longer. We have put our time in, we have gone through the hazing, and we have the thick skin required here to break in those titanium plates we all love to abuse... The thing is, if you take it all with a grain of salt and start contributing useful information, maybe, just maybe, in time you can become a part of this absolutely amazing and diverse group of people. Which is a once-in-a-lifetime (maybe longer) type of collective of people here all providing input to the greatest thing that any of us will ever see!!!

I am a (old) new guy around here and I was welcomed with open arms (though I am a bit funny), and I have benefited more then I could ever type from reading what I have read here (even in the roach days). This is a wealth of information if you learn to wade through the bullshit a thread of this stature attracts. If you continue to worry about the asshats being wrong or, more importantly, you being right, you are going to have a bad time here. But I promise you if you just learn to not be the whiny kid in the corner, you might just get some real-world life-changing advice in between the poop jokes!!!

Or just be a lurker like me and not worry about what some stoopid strangers think of you on the interwebz (this is the way).
Till the next time
K
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August 31, 2025, 04:17:11 PM

I've seen a lot of negativity from many analysts, people give up quickly.

It's also worth noting that the negative scenario may come true, as the chart shows signs of a bearish movement in the short term. For example, there is an attractive liquidation level in the $94-95k range, and in my opinion, it would be strange if large players didn't gather liquidity there before pumping BTC to new heights.

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August 31, 2025, 04:54:38 PM



Bitcoin may be creating another chapter from the beginning of the month. My chapter of preparation is still at the end.
Gooooo .... Holding Bitcoin.

Those who neglected me will be looking for me in the future.

I would be 83 and even if a btc is 10 or 20 million

I would still be 83.

I can honestly say i am in okay shape at 68.

even thou I have asthma and diabetes I can move around pretty well.

But long term holding is a bit harder to do if you are close to 70.

my errors happened from 2012 to 2017.  not so much from 2018 to 2025.
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August 31, 2025, 05:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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August 31, 2025, 05:04:38 PM

I have a small analysis. As I was looking at the chart, the price has fluctuated slightly in the past three days. My gut feeling says that there is a possibility of a spring being squeezed. Maybe we will see a consolidation of several days or weeks (this fact that we are on the weekend is also important. We know the impact of weekends on the price trend).
$112,000 has been a highly reactive area, although it has been broken, it has been reacted to a lot before, especially in the past month.
So the first important level will be $112,000, and if it can break this area, it can quickly go to $115,000, which is also an important area on the chart.

Right now, the best strategy that I think is suitable for me is step purchases.
Again, as always, I repeat that nothing is 100% accurate.


You seem to be describing a kind of noise area in which it hardly makes any sense to attempt to draw significance to BTC price moves within a noise area.

In other words, if we attempt to think more broadly such as is a new ATH going to come first or is $100k going to be tested.

Either could happen,  yet  it seems that any bouncing that we might be doing allong the way is either hardly important or it can be attempted to be described within a theory about whether up or down is more likely.

Another thing is that we likely remain in a bull market which causes up to be more likely than down (which is kind of the meaning of a bull market), so in order to get down rather than up, there needs to be some kind of compelling reason that overcomes the upward thesis.. whether it ends up being merely a short term correction within a bull market or a transition out of the bull market.

Quote
it is what it is. Happy sunday everyone!
definitely the six leg octopus scares me!... trivia, did you know a octopus has 3 hearts!
(just done a 12hour drive playing trivia from YT to stay away!)
There is a point hidden in the picture.
Look at that peak where the cable car connects.
After that, we will not see any peaks or heights as high as that, but there are worse things.

Depends on where you actually are at rather than where you merely perceive yourself to be.

not a good trend IMO.
Most Bitcoin Still Belongs to Individuals, but Institutions Are Catching Up: Research
Quote
What to know:
River’s research estimates that as of Aug. 25, 2025, individuals hold about 65.9% of BTC (13.83 million coins).
Funds and ETFs control about 7.8% of supply; businesses hold 6.2% and governments control 1.5%.
River says the distribution is inferred from filings, address tagging and prior research. In other words, it is an estimate, not an on-chain census.
What do you guys think would happen if the majority of the supply is held by institutions? Wouldn’t that slow down the adoption process since most of them are just into holding long-term?

And does that also mean the market ends up being more manipulated by them, since they control such a big chunk of the supply?

These are not all or nothing arrangements, so even if there are trends in one direction or another there is still quite a bit of variety happening within bitcoin holders and the trends of holders to spend and/or to hold.. and yeah fewer circulating coins has its own effects on price that is not necessarily a bad thing and does not inhibit future abilities to use coins, yet if no one is ready, willing or able to transact with others de to physical or psychological incapacitations then that would take away from aspects of bitcoin power and value proposition in the peer to peer sense..

And, not only are institutions, governments and/or status quo rich folks hodling bitcoin, there are certain trends to try to disinincentivize and inhibit ways that individuals can hold their bitcoin and directly transact.. which surely is a power of bitcoin and does not even necessarily need everyone transacting directly on it to still empower folks in that direction.. so powers that be are likely still quite scared of the ability of individuals to transact anywhere in the world and with anyone without getting prior permission and/or sometimes difficulties to monitor specifics of those transactions.  Scary, but ongoingly powerful.

We can see Bitcoin more down.
@im_BrokeDoomer
$BTC on make or break situation.

Market is pumping on the weekend, but it is a fake pump, TBH Bitcoin has its done for now and getting ready for a huge large red candle.
I know you don't want to hear bearish news, but this is fact, once a bad news comes in the market, Bitcoin will dump hard no matter when, if, why.

Everything will he useless that time, so if you want to be on the safer side and risk free, manage your R/R.
Market always goes with some structure. You see Bitcoin forming double top in 3D. This is a sign we are going for more low.

This is a possible scenario as of now, i know this looks risky, but this is true.
Hoping for a good market recovery in pumtober.

X

These kinds of stories are frequently common in bitcoinlandia, where the proposition is framed as if it were inevitable but it might not even have greater than 49% odds of happening anywhere close to the downity proposition... but sure, it might be helpful to get a few more folks to sell their coins at or near the bottom of a local correction or alternatively to help to stimulate some further correction... perhaps? perhaps?

[edited out]
Before someone says I could have paid for 2500 worth of btc in 2022 I got these when btc was 40k in April of 2015
So 40k to 108k is not as good as

2500 to 10000.
I can get 6000 now and have 4000 in my pocket at cash.
Edit
6750 in btc and have 3250 cash in my pocket via the copper route

Something is wrong with your dates and your BTC prices.

It would have had been better to buy BTC at any time in 2015 or any time in late 2022 (after June 2022), yet surely bitcoin is not as exciting as lugging around 10k-ish pounds of copper/wiring.

But yeah sure you are free to have fun and keep yourself busy in various ways, and sometimes you are even providing a good service to the world.  We cannot have everyone getting richity rich by sitting on their butts and merely accumulating and/or hodling the cornz.  

One of the advantages of asymmetric information for many of us longer term bitcoiners is that we ended up profiting quite stupendously in several ways, and yeah maybe it is unfair and maybe we have gotten lucky in several regards, yet it also can be quit gruelling and frustration provoking to both keep building and HODLing bitcoin while putting up with various uncertainties, too.. since even having asymmetric information, it is not a slam dunk outcome.. since we also need to secure our coins and don't put them with risky third parties.

[edited out]
A bit harsh for a newbie.
A bit harsh the trashing I received from the OGs!

Poor widdo ting-i-lie.

By the way, you are going to have a hard time getting ahead with both a victim mentality and also an ongoing desire to get folks here to accept your various ongoing wrong frameworks and seemingly persistent lack of humility.

[edited out]
@hisslyness, FYI - I got tired quickly of the needless bullshit trashing I received...  Great way to treat newcomers!

It should be no fucking wonder why people are leaving and new members are becoming more rare. Something you OGs should think about!  

Don't let the door hit you on the way out, if we were to be so lucky in these here parts that you would actually leave, since it seems that you are not even trying to get along with  your varlious predecessors..

And, yeah, predecessors do not have more rank or more voice than you, but it still might be helpful that you might figure out some ways to take some hints.. whether they be subtle or not so subtle.. since I doubt that any of us are out to get you and you are kind of wearing on folks who tend to have a lot of patience (even if it might seem to your naive lil newbie perspective that they don't have patience and/or sufficient tolerance for arrogant newbies like ur lil selfie).
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August 31, 2025, 05:23:08 PM
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Bitcoin no longer plays gold’s game

An informational piece (without too much information actually), stating the need for yield benchmarks that take into account custodial vs. noncustodial and other parameters. The author doesn't propose a specific benchmark though. I guess many of the folks here would be happy to see such a turn of events - getting yield out of corn without the need to sell or to give up your keys. Interesting times ahead, probably.

TL;DR A vault asset that earns yield isn’t digital gold anymore — it’s productive capital.
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August 31, 2025, 05:53:24 PM
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What I have no interest in, or patience with, is dealing with stupid people that intentionally actually enjoy being bullies to people when there is no need for such action. Those are the scumbags in our society that need to be taught a serious lesson. Maybe karma will determine their future!
         

The way you are behaving here means that you actually dont know what karma even is about.

OT:
Guys, i am on a holiday now, i cant post much, because IT is horrible to type on my roadwarrior tablet. I had to tap backspace a multiple times more often than this Text consists of Letters.

Yours,
AngryOOM

I hate this Thing, its on the verge to kiss the wall AT full Speerd, See you again soon.
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August 31, 2025, 05:59:48 PM

Guys, i am on a holiday now, i cant post much, because IT is horrible to type on my roadwarrior tablet. I had to tap backspace a multiple times more often than this Text consists of Letters.
What's stopping you from getting a light, cheap, low-power, disposable laptop with full disk encryption and good keyboard for travels? I've "tested" it for the first time this year, and I'm very happy with it.
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August 31, 2025, 06:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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August 31, 2025, 06:40:59 PM
Last edit: August 31, 2025, 06:57:10 PM by JayJuanGee
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not a good trend IMO.
Most Bitcoin Still Belongs to Individuals, but Institutions Are Catching Up: Research
Quote
What to know:
River’s research estimates that as of Aug. 25, 2025, individuals hold about 65.9% of BTC (13.83 million coins).
Funds and ETFs control about 7.8% of supply; businesses hold 6.2% and governments control 1.5%.
River says the distribution is inferred from filings, address tagging and prior research. In other words, it is an estimate, not an on-chain census.
What do you guys think would happen if the majority of the supply is held by institutions? Wouldn’t that slow down the adoption process since most of them are just into holding long-term?

And does that also mean the market ends up being more manipulated by them, since they control such a big chunk of the supply?
To begin with, I will say that you should be careful what you wish for, because it could come true. I want to say that since I've been on this forum (10+ years) many members have wanted exactly what has been happening for the last, say, 5 years - or just a little less than 2 years since BTC spot ETFs were approved in the US.

Everything that is happening is a logical sequence of events, although it took a long time for the big ones to recognize the opportunity offered by Bitcoin, so we small ordinary people got the opportunity to invest at a price that Saylor and the other big players can't even dream of. Now the only question is at what price any of us decide to sell BTC, because they have the money to buy at $100k, but $200k or more won't be a problem for them either.

Realistically, they don't literally control the market, but in some ways they can greatly affect the price of BTC if they decide to dump a large amount of BTC - which is an option at any time. Whether anyone likes it or not, they are responsible for the fact that the price of Bitcoin is over $100k today.

"We" historical bitcoiners are not any kind of monolithic force, and there are all kinds of things that we might want including growth of bitcoin, number go up and various financial freedoms, and each of us will prioritize these matters differently including not necessarily considering there may be trade-offs and challenges from one versus another, not that "we" can choose who comes to bitcoin even if "we" likely have been soliciting everyone to come to bitcoin which entails costs (and benefits)..

Whether bitcoin would have had still  gotten to $100k without Saylor/MSTR and/or shitcoins and/or various financialization products and/or without Larry Fink et al are stories that we cannot really know beyond speculating about it and hopefully not trying to act like we know it all merely because we have a mirror that we can look into and see what was back there.. we still have to speculate about the importance of causal relationships... and hey, of course, we can tell ourselves whatever story we like about where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going based on our assessments (which we might not even be correct about any of those assessments, but still think that we know it all merely because we have  been observing 10 years or more , which may well be 9.5 years longer than an overwhelming majority of others).

[edited out
That’s the thing
We have no desires for newcomers in the WO
Should be obvious
Enough space on the forum to be around imho

Personally, I have no problem with newcomers, yet it is not like we have to go out of the way to kiss their asses merely because they might have a fresh and/or different perspective... especially if they lie and seem to argue for the mere sake of it with their sensitivities and likely fantasy perceptions of self-importance.

Guys here don't even always agree on things and we have different points of view and different ways of presenting matters, and sometimes even bad manners, so there is even a certain level of tolerance for newbies to challenge our frameworks and/or presentation..

Ongoingly BTCETFInvestor seems to want to want to battle, and he may well be doing it on purpose to distract us from more important topics...  

There have been a few interesting contributions that he has made so far, but yeah, he also seems to be unable to let go of some of the personal angle and mostly focus on substance.. not that we are going to completely forget the personal angle,  but the personal angle is likely way less important than what BTCETFInvestor continues to make it out to be.

[edited out]
Phil - Did you get your junk cable selling idea from Sanford & Sons Salvage?


People may well not agree with Phil on a variety of topics, yet I doubt that any of us have any real suspicions that Phil is purposefully deploying fakety information.. and/or just making shit up and/or getting fotos from the web and presenting them as if they were his own, which seems to be your area of expertise, BTCETFInvestor.

That’s the thing
We have no desires for newcomers in the WO
Should be obvious
Enough space on the forum to be around imho
Can't hide ignorance! This place is so teeming with it, it's blinding you...  

I am sure many of us are not even close to as smart as you.

You have shown yourself to be quite intelligent, especially relative to several of us in this thread.  We even have some (at least one) self-proclaimed retard.  A bitcoin retard, at that.

Go figure?

[edited out]
I'll take Richy_T's recommendation and tell you, FUCK YOU!

What else could any of us want?  

A witnessing of the assertion of fuck you status in the wild - even though surely some guys don't really seem to understand the different levels of fuck you status and so sometimes they don't apply their own perception of contextual fuck you status in a very fitting way.

I recall some guys coming to this thread (and other parts of the forum) proclaiming that they had to go back to work because they pulled the fuck you lever too soon.. and surely many of us likely realize that there can be some real world costs (sometimes irreversible) when guys burn bridges and there is really no real justification for such course of action.

Young folks do that frequently and set their future path, when they may have all kinds of opportunities, but then they end up working dead end jobs until their death and become burdens on people who surround them and on the society in general.  It can be sad to come across these kinds of folks in the real world.

I know a person in my real life in which I am frequently saddened to meet up with him, and sometimes he even scares me since I sometimes consider that maybe I have told him too much, even though sometimes I will make some offers to help him to help himself... but he has a lot of pride too, which is also part of his problem, so it becomes more and more difficult for him to get higher paid positions and/or even to keep the manual labor positions that he continues to get into his late 50s and his health is not even doing that good, either... but yeah part of my point is that the earlier he was in his life he could have had potentially changed his trajectory.... but now it is getting to the point that he might not be able to work, even though he proclaims he will keep working until he keels over, not that he has a choice anyhow...or that he is likely to get lucky (like win the lottery - not that that would help) to potentially get himself out of his own problematic mindset that also has action-based follow throughs on a fairly regular basis.

I'll take Richy_T's recommendation and tell you, FUCK YOU!
Good start but one other piece of advice, if I could give it, would be to develop a thick skin. The internet's a rough place but none of it is real.

The internet is real.

But, yeah, thick skin is important, including sometimes choosing ways to let certain topics lie, especially if they might not be going in your favor.. and you don't even necessarily need to admit that you were wrong.. even though sometimes it could be helpful to deal with reality rather than digging oneself in deeper and deeper and deeper, without there being any kind of reason to engage in such, absent just pride.. which surely nearly everyone has pride and/or an ego... and sometimes we have difficulties to control our own ego and/or pride.  I am not going to proclaim to be anything close to a saint in that regard.

By the way, Richy.. .. one of the angles of your advice seems to be that BTCETFInvestor had not figured out to put it into a reasonably functional context, with a certain amount of follow through.. Let's take your own fuck you example from 2017-ish, when you took your marbles away and said that you weren't going to play anymore...

It can be difficult to apply fuck you without consequences, and there can be a certain level of fall-out.. including that some folks just keep on bringing it up... so sure, it might kind of work to say fuck you once in a while, but there can be relatively long term consequences, that surely may not even be that important in the whole scheme of things.  Some folks can apply fuck you better than others in certain contexts, especially if they have shown some historical proof of work.

Remember Adamstgbit's fuck you?  He was quite respected around here, and he could still come back and receive a lot of praise, but at some point, he just went down the road of continuously saying fuck you, which may well could have had been a sign that he was getting too emotional, and I am sure that his choices had real world negative effects on him, even though you are proclaiming that the internet is not real.. but adams' way of dealing with his forum membership was real and quite greatly squandered.. at least from my perspective.

Of course, there are many other examples in which fuck you has gone wrong, and other instances where it ends up working itself out, especially in cases that members are able to and potentially have contributed over the years...so they might not be liked and/or correct in all areas, but if they have also made decently good forum contributions, other members may overlook their flaws and perhaps even some of their confrontational approach.  I have both going on in my own personality and my forum history.. and sometimes any of us might say things and/or do things that have negative consequences.. and sometimes we might not want to say what is our bottom line or how far we might be willing to argue certain points. .which may or may not end up hurting our reputation and/or how other members perceive us.
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August 31, 2025, 06:59:27 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

There was a small M class solar flare this weekend but it was of long duration so it was able to send some love our way.
If the predictions are correct, we should be able to see the aurora beginning at 9pm (UST).  Now that's only 5pm in New York and 2pm in Los Angeles but it should last through the night waning and waxing.  The peak is expected to occur around 11pm UST which is great for Europeans not so much for North Americans.  It's predicted to be a G3 with a Kp of 7ish which means the auroras could dip to ~50° lat so maybe not viewable as far south as LA but then I only gave that as a time reference.  YMMV so keep your eyes on the night sky tomorrow night! (unless you're driving...)

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August 31, 2025, 07:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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