Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ultros]

More usage of the ignore button, less talking about the ignore button. Please don't feed/quote the trolls. Even Fonzie/Igorr are way funnier to read.

Meanwhile, I'd like to post something meaningful but I must say I'm quite lost with this lack of volume just around the breaking of both the long-term exponential trend from 2013 and the December downtrend. Market seems frozen, well known analysts getting shy, so I'm waiting with everyone else. That's my "average Joe" report.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[flynn]

just around the breaking of both the long-term exponential trend from 2013 and the December downtrend.

This.

Bitcoin should learn TA - that's not a way to behave dammit

[mikeh2]

I was impressed by the ZeroHedge link above so I posted it to a group of friends and I got this link as reply: http://jalopnik.com/that-zero-hedge-article-on-unsold-cars-is-bullshit-1578124255

Interesting, it's one of those stories where one isn't inclined to be sceptical as there's not really anything to be gained from making it up. I also can't imagine any agenda behind debunking it (for a change), just a bit odd that someone would bother.

[MICRO]

We are on the moon. Slowly descending to earth.

Actually , that can be very true.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

We are on the moon. Slowly descending to earth.

Actually , that can be very true.

FUD spreader! Stop trolling and start praising BTC!

[MICRO]

We are on the moon. Slowly descending to earth.

Actually , that can be very true.

FUD spreader! Stop trolling and start praising BTC!

I am praising BTC but sometimes u need to be negative and not hope for the best. (Take Serbia floods as example, we hoped for the best and its much more worst)

[oda.krell]

You can't.  You have throw away that number and  compute a valid number.  It costs about $2k to buy 1 ghps, which burns .2 joule/gh at $0.1/kwh, and which gives you a 1.3x10^-8 chance at every 25 btc block reward (one every 9 minutes).  That difficulty increases 20% at each adjustment, every 12.8 days.  Now calculate.

<snip>
  
[I wonder especially about the "Total network hash rate: NHR = 65'000'000 GH/s", is that really per second, per day, or what?]

there is no way to really calculate the total hash rate, we can only estimate based on the current difficulty and the speed at which blocks are created.

luck plays a role, and the hashrate estimate seems to be fluctuating between 65-85 peta hashes per second currently, so the blockchain data seems roughly close enough. (source = http://bitcoin.sipa.be/  )

And yes, that is actually 65 Trillion Quadrillion hashes per second. pretty impressive for an open-source beta project, don't you think?


-also, just noticed this part

Technology-dependent data:
 
  Cost of equipment: CEQ = 2000 USD/(GH/s) (modern equipment)
 
   [Source: @aminorex]

I think that's a typo or something, should be closer to 2000 USD/(TH/s) I believe.

Where are some of you (I'm looking at you, aminorex) getting your estimates from for hardware cost? I (as in: me, small time forum user with a cc) can get 1 TH/s for 1100 USD through Antminer. And I hope you don't believe for one second a large mining farm operator would pay retail prices like that, right?¹

I'm not being frivolous here if I say that I think a realistic estimate for a large scale mining operation should be assumed to operate between factor 0.5 to 1 of that value (keep in in mind, Antminer sells a more or less complete product, a large miner will order the chips and do everything else himself), so my estimate would be [$550, $1100]/TH/s


¹And please don't respond with "those are not energy efficient enough"... the large farms are precisely set up in such a way to minimize the energy costs, so their calculation will be to find the sweet spot between lowest possible hardware cost operating under heavily reduced energy costs.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

same but then our entire economy is very wasteful http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die
I'm sure eventually we'll switch to a better crypto system or energy sources like thorium.

I was impressed by the ZeroHedge link above so I posted it to a group of friends and I got this link as reply: http://jalopnik.com/that-zero-hedge-article-on-unsold-cars-is-bullshit-1578124255

I enjoy the occasional ZH rant as much as anybody, but that "cars of doom" article is terrible, and the rebuttal (while being polemic as well) is imo a lot closer to the actual situation than the original. Car manufacturing is hardly a picture of health, but the idea that they produce millions of cars just to forever stow them away (in fact, we're almost running out of space on earth to store all of them, the article implies) is laughable.

[blatchcorn]

So market is going nowhere.  What exactly are we waiting for to happen?  The foundations are in place for a huge rally, we just need a catalyst.

[aminorex]

“I have discovered a use case for which bitcoin is presently an implausible solution, therefore all bitcoin users will be shot“

Yes, you have proven to me that idiots should not use bitcoin yet.  Idiots need idiot- proof software.  Now go away, and we'll let you know when it is ready.

[RandomPedestrianN9]

[latoxine]

So should we invest in Carlsberg ? 

[TERA]

[trc]

About new cars. Most of the new cars are as ugly as it gets and don't offer any improvements to justify the purchase. The problem is the products themselves, whether manufacturers wish to admit or not. Whenever a truly good car is made, this rule is broken and that model sells like they used to in the past. A quality 10+ or even 20+ years old German car is all you need, even today. Make a better car than a 10 year old Mercedes and I'll think about it. Otherwise, keep your tin cans and let them rust yourselves, thank you.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xalex]

According to my data, the number of new users learning about Bitcoin is still decreasing.

(This is an index number based on statistics from websites/webpages explaining about bitcoin.)

..(huge image removed)..

Today's index (not plotted here but on hourly chart) looks like it's going to be a new yearly low for a Friday.

This is the most interesting thing I've seen on the wall thread in at least a week:  Lots of new bits of data.   Please, please give us more color on what is being charted, otherwise the bits are wasted.

tl;dr

Lots more people were looking up information about bitcoin when it was peaking in price. That chart starts in January when the price was still over $800. As the price relaxed there was less interest (other than when significant, fast drops in price occurred)

The chart would be FAR more meaningful if it extended back to about april of last year, when the price was stable at $90-120, so you could see the change in interest from then through the price jump and to now. I am sure its a few times higher now than a year ago

Aminorex: There are a lot of websites and webpages explaining about Bitcoin. If the statistical data is not public (only a few are), i figure out on what type of machine the website is running. Depending on the type of machine, i use common techniques such as remote resource load monitoring trough webserver response times to create an index number based on the difference compared to average load at stable times.
It looks like the data is dominated by the wikipedia page statistics, yet it is weighted relatively low considering it is linked within many of the other resources i get the data from.
It takes some work to consistently get an evenly weighted index number for the graph due to sites disappearing and new ones being made. To be honest, it is quite a mess due to lack of interest on my part to keep up   but hey, i'm a hacker (the good kind), not a financial analyst  

Klondike_bar: The script has been monitoring (and mirroring) this data for bitcoin, litecoin, peercoin and feathercoin since about june 2012. However, the data folder is over 1300Gb and the code to analyze it is slow, even after a lot of efficiency updates. I'ts not exactly high end hardware. I have it running right now and i was wondering the same thing as you, so the last couple of days i'm spending my time trying to speed up the process.

tl;dr
Used some fairly unknown techniques to get usage data from websites combined with publicly available data.
Hacking around my code to speed up the 1TB+ of data filter to generate graph back to april 2013.

Running optimized on 6 CPU´s, graph from 01 January 2013 until 16 May 2014 should be done in about 3-4 days 
Would be an easy way of predicting big differences in short term demand and possible price. Therefore i predict it won't work. We'll see in a couple of days 

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Adoption is speeding up, volume just reached its new ATH, another Bitcoin exchange went down.....probably server issues, definitely not a security breach or stealing customers coins on purpose.

TO DA MOON!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation