Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YogoH]

I don't think its done. This was a pump led by bitstamp in the super early morning. I think the day will be good and monday will be better.

[windjc]

This last leg up was real weak. Starting to wonder if we will even make it to test that 530 wall. But bitcoin tends to surprise!!

What do you mean?  Were you expecting us to shoot up to 550 tonight?

I think a slow methodical rise is healthier than a bunch of panic short covering and margin buying into oblivion. We are going up pretty damn fast as it is.

This is what I am looking at



It is taking massive momentum, exhausting RSI to make lower highs. We are above January level momentum at half the price and those divergences there should be warning to the bulls. Daily RSI is overbought levels and we have not even tested the previous high at 548! The triangle broke but is the downtrend over? This momentum tells me the buying pressure is not there, and if it does not show itself sooner than later the downtrend will push us down

Good lord, man.

I believe as much as anybody we are not out of the bear market, but you can't expect us to go up at this rate (super quick) after 6 months of bear market and not have the RSI go off the charts. Its just part of a reversal (even if this is a short lived one).  We can simply retest 500 here and the RSI would drop down again and we could fire off to 530+.

Not sure what you are expecting for a "real" reversal, but the RSI can't stay low under these conditions. To compare it to the January momentum is not fair or accurate, imo.

[dreamspark]

One thing that times like this always make me think about is how much more painful it is to be holding fiat when going up than holding bitcoin while going down.

 Not making that mistake again so jumped on the train $100 ago and Im glad I did!

[frienemy]

This last leg up was real weak. Starting to wonder if we will even make it to test that 530 wall. But bitcoin tends to surprise!!

What do you mean?  Were you expecting us to shoot up to 550 tonight?

I think a slow methodical rise is healthier than a bunch of panic short covering and margin buying into oblivion. We are going up pretty damn fast as it is.

This is what I am looking at



It is taking massive momentum, exhausting RSI to make lower highs. We are above January level momentum at half the price and those divergences there should be warning to the bulls. Daily RSI is overbought levels and we have not even tested the previous high at 548! The triangle broke but is the downtrend over? This momentum tells me the buying pressure is not there, and if it does not show itself sooner than later the downtrend will push us down

Good lord, man.

I believe as much as anybody we are not out of the bear market, but you can't expect us to go up at this rate (super quick) after 6 months of bear market and not have the RSI go off the charts. Its just part of a reversal (even if this is a short lived one).  We can simply retest 500 here and the RSI would drop down again and we could fire off to 530+.

Not sure what you are expecting for a "real" reversal, but the RSI can't stay low under these conditions. To compare it to the January momentum is not fair or accurate, imo.

+1

Furthermore, the last hight took 6 candles to establish, now we are only at candle #3. Eating through that massive buy wall at 510 took some fuel, but still this is far from over.

[Marbit]

This last leg up was real weak. Starting to wonder if we will even make it to test that 530 wall. But bitcoin tends to surprise!!

What do you mean?  Were you expecting us to shoot up to 550 tonight?

I think a slow methodical rise is healthier than a bunch of panic short covering and margin buying into oblivion. We are going up pretty damn fast as it is.

This is what I am looking at



It is taking massive momentum, exhausting RSI to make lower highs. We are above January level momentum at half the price and those divergences there should be warning to the bulls. Daily RSI is overbought levels and we have not even tested the previous high at 548! The triangle broke but is the downtrend over? This momentum tells me the buying pressure is not there, and if it does not show itself sooner than later the downtrend will push us down

Good lord, man.

I believe as much as anybody we are not out of the bear market, but you can't expect us to go up at this rate (super quick) after 6 months of bear market and not have the RSI go off the charts. Its just part of a reversal (even if this is a short lived one).  We can simply retest 500 here and the RSI would drop down again and we could fire off to 530+.

Not sure what you are expecting for a "real" reversal, but the RSI can't stay low under these conditions. To compare it to the January momentum is not fair or accurate, imo.

What conditions are you referring to that would make RSI act any differently now than in January? What exactly makes this unfair? Why would RSI be more likely to go off the charts after 6 months of bear market? That makes no sense to me

my point is that when the buying pressure is there, when a rally has *strength* to continue, price can fly 100s of $ without forcing RSI in this manner. just like in late December/early January. indicators are unbiased unlike is humans. and this is relevant to me with all this talk of upcoming bubble in here.

[ShroomsKit]

This last leg up was real weak. Starting to wonder if we will even make it to test that 530 wall. But bitcoin tends to surprise!!

What do you mean?  Were you expecting us to shoot up to 550 tonight?

I think a slow methodical rise is healthier than a bunch of panic short covering and margin buying into oblivion. We are going up pretty damn fast as it is.

This is what I am looking at



It is taking massive momentum, exhausting RSI to make lower highs. We are above January level momentum at half the price and those divergences there should be warning to the bulls. Daily RSI is overbought levels and we have not even tested the previous high at 548! The triangle broke but is the downtrend over? This momentum tells me the buying pressure is not there, and if it does not show itself sooner than later the downtrend will push us down

A few lines told you all that?

[Marbit]

This last leg up was real weak. Starting to wonder if we will even make it to test that 530 wall. But bitcoin tends to surprise!!

What do you mean?  Were you expecting us to shoot up to 550 tonight?

I think a slow methodical rise is healthier than a bunch of panic short covering and margin buying into oblivion. We are going up pretty damn fast as it is.

This is what I am looking at



It is taking massive momentum, exhausting RSI to make lower highs. We are above January level momentum at half the price and those divergences there should be warning to the bulls. Daily RSI is overbought levels and we have not even tested the previous high at 548! The triangle broke but is the downtrend over? This momentum tells me the buying pressure is not there, and if it does not show itself sooner than later the downtrend will push us down

A few lines told you all that?

The lines do not tell me anything, they just illustrate the point. But I see you are only here to troll, so by all means, carry on.

http://www.babypips.com/school/high-school/trading-divergences/hidden-divergence.html

[windjc]

This last leg up was real weak. Starting to wonder if we will even make it to test that 530 wall. But bitcoin tends to surprise!!

What do you mean?  Were you expecting us to shoot up to 550 tonight?

I think a slow methodical rise is healthier than a bunch of panic short covering and margin buying into oblivion. We are going up pretty damn fast as it is.

This is what I am looking at



It is taking massive momentum, exhausting RSI to make lower highs. We are above January level momentum at half the price and those divergences there should be warning to the bulls. Daily RSI is overbought levels and we have not even tested the previous high at 548! The triangle broke but is the downtrend over? This momentum tells me the buying pressure is not there, and if it does not show itself sooner than later the downtrend will push us down

Good lord, man.

I believe as much as anybody we are not out of the bear market, but you can't expect us to go up at this rate (super quick) after 6 months of bear market and not have the RSI go off the charts. Its just part of a reversal (even if this is a short lived one).  We can simply retest 500 here and the RSI would drop down again and we could fire off to 530+.

Not sure what you are expecting for a "real" reversal, but the RSI can't stay low under these conditions. To compare it to the January momentum is not fair or accurate, imo.

What conditions are you referring to that would make RSI act any differently now than in January? What exactly makes this unfair? Why would RSI be more likely to go off the charts after 6 months of bear market? That makes no sense to me

my point is that when the buying pressure is there, when a rally has *strength* to continue, price can fly 100s of $ without forcing RSI in this manner. just like in late December/early January. indicators are unbiased unlike is humans. and this is relevant to me with all this talk of upcoming bubble in here.

Look. What I am saying is, that its obvious that this rally isn't being carried by high volume buying. You don't need to look at RSI to see that. This rally is occuring because of utter exhaustion of sellers. And, in fact, that can be enough to induce a rally. And it has.

If sellers do not come back on board, then this rally is going to most likely continue for at least a little while longer.

Unless a bunch of sellers magically decide to ignore the fact that we just broke several 6 month trendlines and start shorting again, then RSI or no RSI, we are going to continue up. And its probably going to be a lot slower and more arduous than it has been for the last 3 days.

[dreamspark]

Fair amount of resistance up from here and around $800k gone from the bid side, will be intersting to see if there's any movement with new deposits as this rally happened on any money that was in yesterday.

[zimmah]

It's currently struggling against the upper fib downtrend line back from the 1163 peak in november.

It briefly broke it with medium-ish volume but got rejected for now. It will need some more momentum to break it. The line is currently around 516

[windjc]

Fair amount of resistance up from here and around $800k gone from the bid side, will be intersting to see if there's any movement with new deposits as this rally happened on any money that was in yesterday.

I think any consolidation north of $500 is bullish for continuation.  I fully expected a retracment back to or near $500, especially on such a breakout. I think we are entering a point where there is one landmine after another of resistance points from here to 1000.  I doubt we get through many of them, but we do have a fair bit of momentum. And this is the FIRST time since the December bubble that we are going up with momentum without being a snap back.

EDIT: Our only real hope of a sustained bull market is a positive feedback loop. How many people have been waiting on the sidelines for the next "bubble" and do enough of them exists and can enough of them slowly come on board to keep us going at least 3 steps forward 2 steps back.

I give it about 10% chance. I think this "rally" runs out when enough traders have decide its time to take profits. But at least there is a chance.

[UnDerDoG81]

Buhuu a lot of lines and charts here on this page... And all of them are senseless because Bitcoin does not care and does what it does

[nanobrain]

@Marbit -- it was my understanding that RSI and Stochi RSI indicators are relative to what has previously occurred (their time frame for want of a better phrase), so I think what Windjc is saying is that a sudden rise within the 'environment' of a subdued bear market is always going to say 'oversold' to begin with.  Eventually, that indicator will recalibrate to reflect the circumstances of the improving market.

Surely, regardless of TA, a steady, sustained rise over a longer period is more preferable to sudden and unsupported spurts, which is the point here...isn't it?  The bubble in Q1 2013 was actually more protracted than the Q4 rise, so I'd hope we can see something more solid and less 'flash-in-the-pan' this time (fingers crossed ).

[Davyd05]

I am all for sustainable growth, but close to the ATH I would expect more flash in the pan flexes

[droptable]

it has been a long time since i posted here.

looking at the BTC price-chart you also can celebrate.
Congratz!

[zimmah]

Buhuu a lot of lines and charts here on this page... And all of them are senseless because Bitcoin does not care and does what it does

yes and no,

bitcoin sometimes makes big moves, but each of the moves is reasonably predictable. Charts do help you understand the patterns and what's going on but they won't predict the future exactly, but that's true for any market.

[Marbit]

@Marbit -- it was my understanding that RSI and Stochi RSI indicators are relative to what has previously occurred (their time frame for want of a better phrase), so I think what Windjc is saying is that a sudden rise within the 'environment' of a subdued bear market is always going to say 'oversold' to begin with.  Eventually, that indicator will recalibrate to reflect the circumstances of the improving market.

Yes hidden divergences are partly a result of this "environment"  but it is a break of these divergences that could show a strong confirmation for trend reversal. Inability to break them is the very reason to look for hidden divergences -- to see if trend stays intact. so we will see if we can break 550 level and break that last local divergence

However more than anything I am referring to the difference between a $300 move and a $50 move, when both cause the same point increase in RSI (or other momentum indicators). This is not affected by previous price action

[JayJuanGee]

There is one idea in crypto-currency that is unquestionably good, but most parts of the bitcoin protocol are "good" only if one subscribes to the libertarian dogma that banks and governments are evils to be removed.

The only thing about bitcoin that matters is that it is an accurate ledger of transactions, that it is open to the public, and that it cannot be fucked with.









(apologies to JJG, this post has been heavily edited )

Whatever floats your boat, no?

[dnaleor]

I will quote myself

This time, it's for real!