Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

Oh dear btc e back to sub 400

They just keep dumping as if their life depends on it. The way up is gonna be hard and slow.
It seems that their coins getting worth more is the worst thing that could happen to these people and they will do anything to avoid it.

If you purchased sub $300 coins 10 days ago, it would be foolish not to take some off the table with a >40% profit.

I did and i'm not selling. Why would i when the price goes up. What's the point? So i can buy in higher again?
I like to have coins. Not money.

[Karpeles]

that time when you miss Willy bot so much and would like Gox still alive

[JimboToronto]

I purchased some around $300. I'm not selling

Same here.

I also bought some around $500, $450, $400 and $350 on the way down. I'd be crazy to sell now.

That doesn't even include my old coins, bought in early 2013, average cost $120. No way I sell for triple digits.

[JimboToronto]

I like to have coins. Not money.

Money (fiat) is common, coins are scarce.

[ekissane]

I purchased some around $300. I'm not selling

Same here.

I also bought some around $500, $450, $400 and $350 on the way down. I'd be crazy to sell now.

That doesn't even include my old coins, bought in early 2013, average cost $120. No way I sell for triple digits.

I'm only going to sell when we get to 5 digits ;-)

[MrPiggles]

I purchased some around $300. I'm not selling

Same here.

I also bought some around $500, $450, $400 and $350 on the way down. I'd be crazy to sell now.

That doesn't even include my old coins, bought in early 2013, average cost $120. No way I sell for triple digits.

I don't count my old coins cuz I sold them all in December when it was clearly a frenzy, I figured it'd pop, I was waiting to buy back in. Started buying back in around May when I realised I couldn't really predict what was happening

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[superresistant]

 
Bitcoin will increase +100 USD per week up to 5K USD.

You'll see.

[bassclef]

12hr head & shoulders completed on heavy volume. Trend reversal confirmed. Time to go long. Major resistance at $440-$450.

Major resistence is at $420. Don't look to the past. Look at the here and now( order book)!

1. order book can change instantly, not a reliable indicator
2. the past indicates support/resistance levels and their respective volumes, or how many players traded and will remember that particular price. support becomes resistance and vice-versa.

sure it can change. But now there is a wall at $420 with 4000 coins. This could deter people to buy at $415 because the price will likely no rise for the next time. I don't like TA. In my opinion price is the result of supply and demand. But if many traders believe in TA this will get a self-fullfilling prophecy. But I would say: If people try to predict the future with chart analysis, they are right at 50 50.

I bought new coins after we broke that 26k wall. This has more impact than charts!

PS: There is no resistance or support level at $420 in the past. Neither is it a round number (like $400). Why is there such a resistence now?

The wall could get moved up or down, or be taken away entirely. Some walls are skiddish, some are permanent. There's no way to know. Sometimes they are useful. During strong trends they are not as they get easily moved/pulled.

TA is simply a way to predict when the trend might reverse. And that's what you should be doing when trading... following the trend.

Volume tells me how much money and how many coins were accumulated and distributed when the 26k wall was eaten. You are part of it, so was I That is TA.

Support/resistance levels don't occur every time the market pauses. We could be consolidating for the next move up. 420 may well be a resistance level. But 450 will be a more significant one.

Markets are fractal in nature. The farther out you zoom, the more significant patterns and predictions become. So heavy volume support points on the daily chart will become more significant resistance than lesser volume support on, say, a 1 hour chart.

[MrPiggles]

Some walls are skiddish,

Skiddish is not a word

[porcupine87]

12hr head & shoulders completed on heavy volume. Trend reversal confirmed. Time to go long. Major resistance at $440-$450.

Major resistence is at $420. Don't look to the past. Look at the here and now( order book)!

1. order book can change instantly, not a reliable indicator
2. the past indicates support/resistance levels and their respective volumes, or how many players traded and will remember that particular price. support becomes resistance and vice-versa.

sure it can change. But now there is a wall at $420 with 4000 coins. This could deter people to buy at $415 because the price will likely no rise for the next time. I don't like TA. In my opinion price is the result of supply and demand. But if many traders believe in TA this will get a self-fullfilling prophecy. But I would say: If people try to predict the future with chart analysis, they are right at 50 50.

I bought new coins after we broke that 26k wall. This has more impact than charts!

PS: There is no resistance or support level at $420 in the past. Neither is it a round number (like $400). Why is there such a resistence now?

The wall could get moved up or down, or be taken away entirely. Some walls are skiddish, some are permanent. There's no way to know. Sometimes they are useful. During strong trends they are not as they get easily moved/pulled.

TA is simply a way to predict when the trend might reverse. And that's what you should be doing when trading... following the trend.

Volume tells me how much money and how many coins were accumulated and distributed when the 26k wall was eaten. You are part of it, so was I That is TA.

Support/resistance levels don't occur every time the market pauses. We could be consolidating for the next move up. 420 may well be a resistance level. But 450 will be a more significant one.

Markets are fractal in nature. The farther out you zoom, the more significant patterns and predictions become. So heavy volume support points on the daily chart will become more significant resistance than lesser volume support on, say, a 1 hour chart.

We will see what happens at $440. But you are right. Orders can always be pulled. It is just an indicator, not a tight rule. Out of curiousity: Why $440? Because there was a resistance  in 23.9.? Because there was a support at 18.8.?

[bassclef]

We will see what happens at $440. But you are right. Orders can always be pulled. It is just an indicator, not a tight rule. Out of curiousity: Why $440? Because there was a resistance  in 23.9.? Because there was a support at 18.8.?

Yes that is correct. Also 440-450 is the neckline of a larger head & shoulder reversal. There is an increased chance that the price will bounce back to 400 or so before resuming up, (only if there is enough volume). Also if there are enough profit-takers, you may get your $420 resistance :8

[Erdogan]

So the question I have for everyone is are we really ready for another bubble?  For those of you that have been through a rally before do you remember how addicted we became to the charts? Even more so than now, which can be hard to believe for some of us. And if you are anything like me, all I seemed to talk about day and night was Bitcoin.  My kids would even say, "Stop talking about Bitcoin!"  But the obsessiveness was because of the adrenalin rush of price increases every day, every hour and sometimes every minute!  Hopefully I can remain more calm and less of an "addict" this time around.  We will see. . .  

I prefer a modest rise of 10% per week in the beginning of a new bubble, so we rise too fast. Wild guess: this time we first get a minibubble of say 2000 USD/B, after a pause of a month or so we get the real bubble.

[Davyd05]

We will see what happens at $440. But you are right. Orders can always be pulled. It is just an indicator, not a tight rule. Out of curiousity: Why $440? Because there was a resistance  in 23.9.? Because there was a support at 18.8.?

Yes that is correct. Also 440-450 is the neckline of a larger head & shoulder reversal. There is an increased chance that the price will bounce back to 400 or so before resuming up, (only if there is enough volume). Also if there are enough profit-takers, you may get your $420 resistance :8

think new money panic buys will confirm ccmf bull run but at least this reversal is rolling

[porcupine87]

We will see what happens at $440. But you are right. Orders can always be pulled. It is just an indicator, not a tight rule. Out of curiousity: Why $440? Because there was a resistance  in 23.9.? Because there was a support at 18.8.?

Yes that is correct. Also 440-450 is the neckline of a larger head & shoulder reversal. There is an increased chance that the price will bounce back to 400 or so before resuming up, (only if there is enough volume). Also if there are enough profit-takers, you may get your $420 resistance :8

You mean I should take profits and dump my 5000 coins?

[findftp]

It looks like my prediction is still on track.
bubble start between 25th sept. and 25th oct.
Now CCMF!

[YogoH]

It looks like my prediction is still on track.
bubble start between 25th sept. and 25th oct.
Now CCMF!

Maybe this IS the bubble start?

[findftp]

It looks like my prediction is still on track.
bubble start between 25th sept. and 25th oct.
Now CCMF!

Maybe this IS the bubble start?

Yes it is
That's why I say it is on track.
I also predict the top, hope I'm right. My trades are dependent on it.

[YogoH]

It looks like my prediction is still on track.
bubble start between 25th sept. and 25th oct.
Now CCMF!

Maybe this IS the bubble start?

Yes it is
That's why I say it is on track.
I also predict the top, hope I'm right. My trades are dependent on it.

oh hah i misread what you wrote.  I hope you are right as well, although many people predict us to retrace to 300 once more.

[DaRude]

Feels like one entity is buying up coins while trying to minimize the slippage. Buys few thousand coins then backs off for asks to refill and then buys again...