the crash is over?

[superduh]

not counting the day traders causing a lot of volatility is it possible that the crash may actually be settling
obviously, noone has any actual idea.
some people who have a lot of coins might try to manipulate
but it's been 3 days since the "disaster"
wouldn't everyone who wanted to cash out have cashed out by now?
i would assume that people feel confident at a certain level
it's been 3+ days. good or bad assumption

[1713915145]

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[checkers6676]

i have buy orders spread from here to china. and sell orders spread from there back. i am eBrluaBl (an exact and equal mix of Bear and Bull, in no particular order)

[NikolaTesla]

I would imagine everyone who has wanted to get out has gotten out by now, and we're left with long-term holders, which would technically make it a new bull market. I don't expect any kind of euphoric bubbles again, but I think there is not much the market can do besides go up.

[Ekaros]

Crash is over, correction will continue...

[BitcoinAshley]

Correction is losing momentum and we are seeing massive volumes during significant moves.

[BitPirate]

Looks like it -- buying pressure is increasing again. There is a big wall at $60 and $61 -- yesterday it was at $50; it look slike buyer sentiment is improving.

Still lots of selling pressure too, but she seems to be holding up well.

[Anonymouss]

I don't think it will ever stable out 100% if people arnt willing to use it as currency. They only see it as an investment which is a shame because the potential is there we just have to utilize it.

[nobbynobbynoob]

I don't think it will ever stable out 100% if people arnt willing to use it as currency. They only see it as an investment which is a shame because the potential is there we just have to utilize it.

I use it both ways.

There won't be stability in any case while BTC trades at penny-stock prices. As the ecosystem expands, the net demand for BTC will rise, pushing the price up with it. But a steadily increasing price draws in the speculators and get-rich-quick crowd, fuelling the next bubble, which pops, and around and around we go...

There should be more stability at $10/mBTC.

[anonymous_hero]

I'm still bearish.  Using the June 2011 "crash" as a reference for how this one will turn out, prices will continue to drop for some time.  Obviously things are different in many ways now, but I think the price will steadily drop for some time.  We'll see whether I'm wrong soon.   

[botlove]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN4XpIbEY-Y

=)

[fitty]

2011?

Was Beiber even born back then? Wasn't Regan president?

Past performance is not an indication of future results. If only it was that easy, we'd all be rich. Luckily I'm old enough I was there in 2011, this isn't remotely close to what happened then.

I'm still bearish.  Using the June 2011 "crash" as a reference for how this one will turn out, prices will continue to drop for some time.  Obviously things are different in many ways now, but I think the price will steadily drop for some time.  We'll see whether I'm wrong soon.   

[SlipperySlope]

After the high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011, at 31.90, the previous bitcoin bubble dropped to just 2.20. That drop took 159 days and most of the time the rate of decline was about 1% a day.  There were several high volume capitulations along the way.

To the extent that this bubble is typical, this crash is not over - the losses for buyers above 70 are only going to increase.

[bitcon]

the crash is over. whether we slide downhill or get wind under our wings nobody knows.

[xorglub]

Impossible to know for sure...

Arguments for :
* record volume trying to sell into the $50 support, twice, not broken. Capitulation ?
* fundamentals look great. Lots of new businesses and buyers. MtGox seems to have fixed their lag problem.
* lots of confidence that was not present in 2011 - at the time it was the first bubble and no one knew if Bitcoin would survive. Today its recovery is a question of when, not if.
* forum bears are quieter again (not just Proudhon, whether he's trolling to desperately get the price down or genuinely bullish, it's a bullish sign either way)
* usual eliott wave analysis of 0->30 = wave 1, 30->2 = wave 2, 2->266 = wave 3, 266->? = wave 4 implies that the low of wave 4 must be >32. Does not let much further downside than what we've already retraced from the 266 high.

Arguments against :
* even though we're now back at $70, we are not officially clear of the downtrend channel that started with the first bounce to $130 after the bubble popped. That rally may just be a correction for dropping 50% in a day (100->50) and the downtrend may contine slowly.
* bubble deflation was too quick ?
* still lots of people speculating. Way too much IMHO. The bulls are still in "yeah $100 by next week woohoo !" mode; after the true bottom I would expect the rally to restart very slowly, not go from $50 to $80 and back to $65 in less than a day.

What do you think ?

[checkers6676]

nice list of points. it should be noted that the wall at 70, which I believe is currently holding up the current price, is the work of a handful of people (all of those buy orders appeared together over a few minutes), and when that person/people log off for the day where ever they are (canceling their buy orders if they dont actually want them filled, and I believe they dont or there'd be a lot more volume via market buys), then the price will drop back into 60s range.

[mp420]

This crash was not a mere correction. I for one am buying back when I see a reason to on the weekly chart.

[Frozenlock]

Link? 

[ManBearPig]

Today it is my opinion (caveat!) that we will see our first green candlestick since the crash.

[rpietila]

This crash was not a mere correction. I for one am buying back when I see a reason to on the weekly chart.

That's good. I would think it nets you more than it takes.

I would give a 20% chance now, that bitcoin in a major traded exchange would go below $50, 12% for a visit to $32. (Before end of 2013)

Less than 5% that we linger at around 50 next autumn.

[Miz4r]

I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.

[rpietila]

I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.

We have tried it 4 times now:
- During the time Mt.Gox was closed for 12 hours, in Bitstamp and other exchanges
- Immediately after Mt.Gox was opened, in MtGox
- About 12 hours after it was opened, in MtGox
- Yesterday, in MtGox

It is starting to feel strong.. Maybe it will fall next 

[oakpacific]

I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.

I am fairly sure we will only go up when the bears have completely blown their wads and got nothing more to burn.

[alexeft]

I wouldn't worry. Fundamentals are still there.

In no particular order:

1) Deposit confiscation is getting worldwide
2) Limited bitcoin supply is there.
3) Mtgox and others should be stronger than ever, in terms of machinery and capital.
4) Bitcoin transactions are more than ever. Look here http://blockchain.info/el/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

5) The number of involved people is bigger than ever. Look here http://blockchain.info/el/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

 

[nwbitcoin]

If this bubble took a month to peak ( and it took longer than that) doesn't it stand to reason that it will take at least a month to get back to some kind of stability?

People are pointing to $50 because its a nice round number, I think it will drop to where we were at the beginning of March because we all know MTGox is broken, and that does cause more doubt than you can make a graph with!

[Brushan]

Looks to me like it's stabilizing.

[zoolander]

I feel a change in the wind, but I have to say I'm still very dubious that things have shaken out this quickly. I'm still bearish overall.

That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).

Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.

[Brushan]

39K BTC Bid wall at 70$ and it's rising. Looks like all the sellers are getting back in the game.

[Dr3AM$cAp3]

Speculating....keeps you up at night.  

[just1nmc]

39K BTC Bid wall at 70$ and it's rising. Looks like all the sellers are getting back in the game.

I agree  

[BitPirate]

I feel a change in the wind, but I have to say I'm still very dubious that things have shaken out this quickly. I'm still bearish overall.

That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).

Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.

If BTC/USD can double and then crash to half in a day, it can bottom and stabilise in a week -- and that is what it appears to be doing.

[zakoliverz]

Crash is over, correction will continue...

Thank you so much for your information.

[xorglub]

Nope, it's crashing upwards now 

[arepo]

Nope, it's crashing upwards now 

it's hilarious how perfectly sentiment lags price. when everyone was all doom and gloom, this rally was born. now that everyone's on board, it's topping. short term top at $8x.xx

selling pressure, ON!

[jubalix]

I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.

I am fairly sure we will only go up when the bears have completely blown their wads and got nothing more to burn.

hahah really made me laugh glad i wasn't drinking a hot coffee

[annette786]

I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC.  All those little crashes on they way to 260 were blips after a few days. 

It's because there are no shorts.  Everyone that is trading is long by definition.  If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.

It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.

[antimattercrusader]

I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC. 

+1

[johnniewalker]

You guys are so cute.

[blueberry]

We double bottomed around $50. If you didn't buy on the dip or panicked and sold your coins for cheap, then commiserations.

[atomium]

looks very stable to me, lets see how it ends up by the end of the week

[blueberry]

looks very stable to me, lets see how it ends up by the end of the week

Yes, I hope it stabilizes soon. I can't sleep with all this 24/7 volatility. 

[rpietila]

I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC.  All those little crashes on they way to 260 were blips after a few days. 

It's because there are no shorts.  Everyone that is trading is long by definition.  If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.

It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.

+1.

To add: People have tendency to project their own actions or thought to the general public. I, for one, am super bullish long term, have done my homework, bought on equity (not credit) on the way to $100, stopped buying, sold a tiny bit over $200 (had intention to sell 25% at an average price of $400 but we never got that far), resumed buying at $100 and now I am slowly accumulating more as I don't have "excess" assets that could be converted to BTC (my silver is also getting interesting..), I would never panic sell, but I did panic buy several times on the way up.

I think most of the new entrants in Jan-March were like me.

If someone, on the other hand, actually bought on margin, solely for the reason that it went up, and is now either exited or busted, he may very well think that most of the new money was from the likes of him.

What I think, however, is that some time from now on, it will come from the likes of me. True believers. It will be an excellent entry point, as we cannot go but up from the point where all sellers have sold already. The "bears" in this forum are people waiting to buy back, the successful speculators have no reason to come here to spread FUD, they are already pumping the next bubble in Madagaskar real estate or something with their quick gains.

[superduh]

i'm glad i was right. "correction" happening. hopefully it will go slower

[BitcoinAshley]

What I think, however, is that some time from now on, it will come from the likes of me. True believers.

It's funny, though, because many of our resident Occupy Wall St. Bears would label you a
"greedy speculator who doesn't believe in or care about bitcoin," simply because you have more than, say, [$5000 USD worth of bitcoins] (arbitrary amount, because, around here, having a fiat savings account is OK but we're supposed to treat Bitcoin like a hot potato lest we be labeled 'greedy.') It's interesting how "true believer" means different things to different folks... But as you say,

[...] the successful speculators have no reason to come here to spread FUD, they are already pumping the next bubble in Madagaskar real estate or something with their quick gains.

The real speculators are done and onto the next bubble, lol @ Madagascar real estate.

For the FUDers, no matter why the price goes up, they'll always blame it on "greedy speculators." Any price rise must surely be due to bubble-pumpers rather than thousands upon thousands of people just like me, buying bitcoins to avoid fiat and for the sheer convenience.
   

[xorglub]

Today was very interesting. If you look at the hourly chart it looks almost identical to the "zoomed out" chart of the april crash. Oh fractal nature of markets...

If history is to be repeated, the price is going to gradually decrease to about $110, accelerating towards $100. There will be some big sell-offs at around that $90-$100 resistance. If it holds, then both bubbles can be called over.
If it does not and $80ish support is broken, we are entering a dangerous bear territory.

[rebuilder]

I'm interested to see what the bottom turns out to be. That's not saying much, everyone here is waiting to see that. But I'm looking forward to seeing how the long-term volatility of BTC shapes up. To have a repeat of the 2011 crash from 30 to around 2, we'd need to break below 20. If the bottom turns out to be significantly above 20, I'd take it as supportive of the theory that volatility should go down as trading volume goes up, in the long term.