[Discussion] Bitcoin ETF

[OmegaStarScream]

I thought we should make a thread about the Bitcoin ETF and make a discussion about it , even though I don't fully understand what is this actually about , and I saw a question somewhere that really made me think why would someone buy shares on ETF that holds bitcoin while he could buy bitcoins himself ?

I also saw some interesting analysis on coindesk yesterday and wanted to take your opinion on it :

[1714101212]

1714101212

[1714101212]

1714101212

[1714101212]

1714101212

[1714101212]

1714101212

[calkob]

A bitcoin ETF is good for the like of big pension funds and large investment companies it gives them the regulatory protections they need to invest other peoples money.  Thats what i understand about then, i'm sure there are other benefits.  I think in general its a good thing,  but yes i would rather hold bitcoin myself, but my granny probably wont

[geopolisch]

A bitcoin ETF is good for the like of big pension funds and large investment companies it gives them the regulatory protections they need to invest other peoples money.  Thats what i understand about then, i'm sure there are other benefits.  I think in general its a good thing,  but yes i would rather hold bitcoin myself, but my granny probably wont

Literally bitcoin ETF will bring opportunities to rest of people to invest-only into bitcoin rather than adopting it for investment purposes. It means bitcoin investments will get easier for non-technical people.

Honestly the impact of bitcoin ETF on price levels will be unpredictable as market will react on speculations. Still we all know what are magics new investors will do for us.

[bettercrypto]

If Bitcoin ETF is approved this is a great breakthrough for Bitcoin because this will not only show that Government finds Bitcoin profitable, it will also clear the doubt of Bitcoin being illegal currency.  Aside from that this will boost popularity and adoption. 

[calkob]

A bitcoin ETF is good for the like of big pension funds and large investment companies it gives them the regulatory protections they need to invest other peoples money.  Thats what i understand about then, i'm sure there are other benefits.  I think in general its a good thing,  but yes i would rather hold bitcoin myself, but my granny probably wont

Literally bitcoin ETF will bring opportunities to rest of people to invest-only into bitcoin rather than adopting it for investment purposes. It means bitcoin investments will get easier for non-technical people.

Honestly the impact of bitcoin ETF on price levels will be unpredictable as market will react on speculations. Still we all know what are magics new investors will do for us.

Your right we wont know what impact it will have on price but i think we can all agree that it will most def be positive. 

[European Central Bank]

a bitcoin etf opens up the possibility of regular folks putting money in tax free and relatively risk free. however i don't see much, or any, evidence of regular folks wanting to do this.

if one does get approved i think it's gonna be a very useful addition but also a very slow burn. there isn't a mountain of pent up demand out there for it as far as i can tell.

[Lauda]

I tend to avoid speculation in this fact. Let's face it, nobody really knows:
1) If the ETF will be approved or not. With 50% chance of being right, one side will definitely brag about it later.
2) What kind of price effect it is going to have.
I think that the picture taken from Coindesk is a random prediction. It claims that $300m of buy-in capital would only move the price to $1090. I strongly disagree. An ETF approval (without factoring in the capital) will move the price way above this point just out of speculative reasons. Such a big buy in (assuming most of it isn't OTC) even over a longer period of time will definitely cause upward movement.

[Kprawn]

The ETF approval will definitely have a impact and I think the most positive impact it will have will be that serious investors will have a gateway

to access it, without having to deal with risks and having technical knowledge about it. I think a lot of the big guns are hesitant to invest directly

into Bitcoin because of these issues. 

[newIndia]

IMHO, Bitcoin ETF is good for institutional investments. Being a secondary market, it may or may not have an effect on bitcoin's primary market. That is part of the speculation.

[Yakamoto]

I'm thinking that an ETF will definitely be a big boom to the Bitcoin economy during the time it is involved, and I think that a majority of the numbers they're running off are relatively accurate in my opinion.

I'm just wondering how often they're going to end up shorting Bitcoin, since so much of their project is based around Bitcoin and a lot of what happens in the market is relatively erratic.

[Velkro]

A bitcoin ETF is good for the like of big pension funds and large investment companies it gives them the regulatory protections they need to invest other peoples money.  Thats what i understand about then, i'm sure there are other benefits.  I think in general its a good thing,  but yes i would rather hold bitcoin myself, but my granny probably wont

Something like this, i dont think bitcoin need this ETF, but this will help people from diffirent world to invest and thats good for bitcoin.
I hope winkelvoss brothers will succeed with this

[KyriosCluster]

I personally wish that Bitcoin stays in this circle of internet users,
but on the other hand this is a huge chance for Bitcoin to gain a wider range of users and seem more trustable to 'normal' investors.

[franky1]

ETF's wont cause much of a change to bitcoin at first.

for one.
most ETF had pre-bought the coins months/years before getting the green light from regulators.
also ETF are not trading bitcoins. they are trading shares in a company of X btc in trust. thus the price of a share is not directly impacting
bitcoin. because it does not result in any actual bitcoins being bought/sold.

there may be ETF events when they make announcements that they have added new 'baskets' (much like share dilution events) where the supply
of shares alters within the company. but this again is not about a change in bitcoins.

ETF will be more reactive to bitcoin prices so an ETF will follow the real bitcoin price rather than the other way around.

what positives i can see:
people will see an ETF and want to hold real bitcoin. so after playing with ETF or using ETF's for their official regulated pension funds. traders would separately then go and buy bitcoin for their personal holdings unofficially(outside their pension/investment contract)

mentions of the word bitcoin ETF would solidify bitcoin as a good asset. so again if its good for a ETF. people will then move off and buy bitcoin directly from proper bitcoin exchanges.

but i do not see the ETF price movements causing the real bitcoin prices to manoeuvre.. i see the bitcoin price movements manoeuvre ETF's

... just my opinion

[ImHash]

When 10 years from now giant fiat banks have more than 70% of all the bitcoins then we'll end up once again their poppets. I beg you stop selling your bitcoins just for a few bucks profit, ETF will boost the price without any doubt but avoid selling yours if you wont be able to buy back later.
Big miners are mining just to sell afterwards, let them be the losing party in the future.
Next step after ETF is wall street for sure.

[mtwelve]

While it would be awesome for a Bitcoin ETF to exist, I'm still confused on how it would be better than buying and holding Bitcoin outright. Or using a service like a Bitcoin IRA if you're thinking long term.

[Hydrogen]

I still have questions on initial btc ETF offerings.

Whether its leveraged or not could be key.

Bitcoin could benefit from more professional investors being involved with it.

In the past it has shook my confidence in btc seeing people in the talkbox on btc-e exchange conspiring to find ways to devalue bitcoin, as they think if they kill the price it will immediately shoot back up.

Somehow I don't think "dead cat bounce" is the go-to tactic professional investors look for as a signature way to profit from investments. In a way it can be demoralizing and depressing to see so many less experienced btc traders favor that approach.

On the flip side, if there is big money invested in a btc etf, there could be negatives in terms of increased politics and attempts to manipulate the price of bitcoin for better or worse.

I hope overall the price of bitcoin will go up and there will be more professionals involved with long term stakes, who will try to advance bitcoin as an alt currency & take advantage of the benefits it can offer to civilization and society.

If nothing else, ETC offering could boost volitility and trading volume. There could be opportunities for trading when the btc etf rolls out.

[Kakmakr]

ETF's wont cause much of a change to bitcoin at first.

for one.
most ETF had pre-bought the coins months/years before getting the green light from regulators.
also ETF are not trading bitcoins. they are trading shares in a company of X btc in trust. thus the price of a share is not directly impacting
bitcoin. because it does not result in any actual bitcoins being bought/sold.

there may be ETF events when they make announcements that they have added new 'baskets' (much like share dilution events) where the supply
of shares alters within the company. but this again is not about a change in bitcoins.

ETF will be more reactive to bitcoin prices so an ETF will follow the real bitcoin price rather than the other way around.

what positives i can see:
people will see an ETF and want to hold real bitcoin. so after playing with ETF or using ETF's for their official regulated pension funds. traders would separately then go and buy bitcoin for their personal holdings unofficially(outside their pension/investment contract)

mentions of the word bitcoin ETF would solidify bitcoin as a good asset. so again if its good for a ETF. people will then move off and buy bitcoin directly from proper bitcoin exchanges.

but i do not see the ETF price movements causing the real bitcoin prices to manoeuvre.. i see the bitcoin price movements manoeuvre ETF's

... just my opinion

I am very curious to know how many bitcoins were pre-bought for this, because the numbers that are being thrown around is in the Billions of $. Do you think the twins are using their own bitcoins or bitcoins that we bought be investors. If these bitcoins were pre-bought and the ETF fails, then we might see a dump, when the investors wants their money back?

So this might just have a negative side.

[Sniper44]

despite what some may think about ETF and its effect, in my opinion it is not about buying bitcoin in other words the money that is supposed to be injected into the market has been getting injected for a while.

but it is all about the publicity this can bring to bitcoin, many will find out about it and see bitcoin as a viable investment option and that alone can be very helpful in increasing the price.

[Grdas130979]

BTC ETF is going to happen, but i think later, not now. It will bring more legitimacy to BTC, more attention by people and an easier way to poor money, when we say money we talk about more than current market cap, so its huge for BTC. But its not so simple, i believe its not easy right now for SEC to accept ETF in current situation, when China rises questions about KYC issues and money laundering, right or wrong it doesnt matter.

[helloeverybody]

ETF going through will be a big thing for bitcoin, the odds of it going through are still slim with most people giving numbers ranging from 25% up to 35% of being approved. This would put bitcoin into the hands of thousands of big and small investors who under normal circumstances wouldn't touch bitcoin with a barge pole. The whole winklevoss ETF has been ongoing for almost 4 years now so this is it finally coming to a close and if no decision is made by the 11th of march then the new rule will be set in place by default and bitcoin can be traded as ETF.

There should be more coverage on this on bitcoin talk imo as it would lead onto a definite bull run.

[BillyBobZorton]

ETF going through will be a big thing for bitcoin, the odds of it going through are still slim with most people giving numbers ranging from 25% up to 35% of being approved. This would put bitcoin into the hands of thousands of big and small investors who under normal circumstances wouldn't touch bitcoin with a barge pole. The whole winklevoss ETF has been ongoing for almost 4 years now so this is it finally coming to a close and if no decision is made by the 11th of march then the new rule will be set in place by default and bitcoin can be traded as ETF.

There should be more coverage on this on bitcoin talk imo as it would lead onto a definite bull run.

I sense big money coming from the ETF. All those old big money men are going to come to bitcoin with the ETF, because they are too dumb to learn the technology and get their money in crypto exchanges, or maybe too smart, since they don't want to risk unregulated stuff.

So I sense 5 figures in not a long time from now. The ETF will get accepted sooner or later so no need to worry about dips if it doesn't get accepted again.

[helloeverybody]

ETF going through will be a big thing for bitcoin, the odds of it going through are still slim with most people giving numbers ranging from 25% up to 35% of being approved. This would put bitcoin into the hands of thousands of big and small investors who under normal circumstances wouldn't touch bitcoin with a barge pole. The whole winklevoss ETF has been ongoing for almost 4 years now so this is it finally coming to a close and if no decision is made by the 11th of march then the new rule will be set in place by default and bitcoin can be traded as ETF.

There should be more coverage on this on bitcoin talk imo as it would lead onto a definite bull run.

I sense big money coming from the ETF. All those old big money men are going to come to bitcoin with the ETF, because they are too dumb to learn the technology and get their money in crypto exchanges, or maybe too smart, since they don't want to risk unregulated stuff.

So I sense 5 figures in not a long time from now. The ETF will get accepted sooner or later so no need to worry about dips if it doesn't get accepted again.

Exactly. The discussion thread should be full of stuff on the ETF but instead everyone is still worrying about the same old stuff. We are literally a few weeks away from the possibility of this going through and that means a lot of money more than likely will come in. Traditional investors dont like learning new technology's like bitcoin but if they can trade it as a ETF then there is a massive store of wealth just waiting to get tapped into. 

[mtwelve]

We are assuming the ETF does get accepted for this bull run to occur however. Delays are no longer possible and the final decision is indeed to be made March 11th, but what if it's denied? Will this lead to a dump? Are we going to see three figures again?

[aryer84]

I for one cannot wait to get my hands on this ETF. 

[WirelessDonkey]

If the winklevoss etf is approved on March 11, when will we be able to buy it? March 11th? or is there some time before it's up and running?

[OmegaStarScream]

We are assuming the ETF does get accepted for this bull run to occur however. Delays are no longer possible and the final decision is indeed to be made March 11th, but what if it's denied? Will this lead to a dump? Are we going to see three figures again?

I believe so, because If everyone is buying right now for the sole purpose of making profit when the price increase after ETF gets approved, they will obviously get disappointed and sell everything they bought.

[spartacusrex]

With regard to HOW the ETF actually works..

The price of the COIN ticker is not the price of a bitcoin ?

My limited, and probably wrong, understanding is that if many people buy COIN, then COIN will have to buy up Bitcoins from exchanges so that they have the correct amount of Bitcoin * Price (Winkdex) given how much there COIN ETF is worth.. ? And the same in reverse.

Can someone explain it pls..

[Red-Apple]

We are assuming the ETF does get accepted for this bull run to occur however. Delays are no longer possible and the final decision is indeed to be made March 11th, but what if it's denied? Will this lead to a dump? Are we going to see three figures again?

I believe so, because If everyone is buying right now for the sole purpose of making profit when the price increase after ETF gets approved, they will obviously get disappointed and sell everything they bought.

there are always going to be people who buy because they want to make some quick profit and that is their only purpose and they always sell after a rise whether they are satisfied or not. and this has never changed anything about bitcoin price and its overall movement.
these things are all side-stuff which will always have temporary effect.

[WirelessDonkey]

If the winklevoss etf is approved on March 11, when will we be able to buy it? March 11th? or is there some time before it's up and running?

Bump

[dominikherzog5]

Bitcoin ETF is good for institutional investments.This will help people from different world to invest and that's good for bitcoin.

[Bibite]

Don't get too much hopes with ETF accepted. Two times rejected already. Two other funds of the same kind are pending approval: the ETF of the SolidX Bitcoin Trust and that of Grayscale Investments, a company owned by Barry Silbert. If it is accepted it could bring new investors but if not it could a flop with the price too!

[pinkpanther03]

I thought we should make a thread about the Bitcoin ETF and make a discussion about it , even though I don't fully understand what is this actually about , and I saw a question somewhere that really made me think why would someone buy shares on ETF that holds bitcoin while he could buy bitcoins himself ?

I also saw some interesting analysis on coindesk yesterday and wanted to take your opinion on it :

All I can say on this chart, I'm not sure if this is just a projection, It maybe happen  and It may not be happen, meaning 50/50 chances to be happen but whatever the result might gonna be still bitcoin will increase more.

[WirelessDonkey]

If the winklevoss etf is approved on March 11, when will we be able to buy it? March 11th? or is there some time before it's up and running?

Bump

[European Central Bank]

If the winklevoss etf is approved on March 11, when will we be able to buy it? March 11th? or is there some time before it's up and running?

Bump

only they can tell you that. i assume they have absolutely everything ready to roll. what might take time is the bats exchange getting ready but maybe they're ready too.

it could be a couple of weeks, might be three or more months.

[chennan]

ETF's wont cause much of a change to bitcoin at first.

for one.
most ETF had pre-bought the coins months/years before getting the green light from regulators.
also ETF are not trading bitcoins. they are trading shares in a company of X btc in trust. thus the price of a share is not directly impacting
bitcoin. because it does not result in any actual bitcoins being bought/sold.

there may be ETF events when they make announcements that they have added new 'baskets' (much like share dilution events) where the supply
of shares alters within the company. but this again is not about a change in bitcoins.

ETF will be more reactive to bitcoin prices so an ETF will follow the real bitcoin price rather than the other way around.

what positives i can see:
people will see an ETF and want to hold real bitcoin. so after playing with ETF or using ETF's for their official regulated pension funds. traders would separately then go and buy bitcoin for their personal holdings unofficially(outside their pension/investment contract)

mentions of the word bitcoin ETF would solidify bitcoin as a good asset. so again if its good for a ETF. people will then move off and buy bitcoin directly from proper bitcoin exchanges.

but i do not see the ETF price movements causing the real bitcoin prices to manoeuvre.. i see the bitcoin price movements manoeuvre ETF's

... just my opinion

So coming from someone who doesn't really quite understand how ETF's would work, I have a couple questions coming from what I highlighted above.

1) So with an ETF (Exchange Traded Funds), you are saying that people who invest into these are investing into a "company's" portfolio (i.e. Winklevoss bitcoin portfolio) rather than buying their own coins for what reasons?  How does this protect their investments?

2) If they can add more shares willingly to dilute their stocks enough to make it affordable, why even bother?  You can buy as much or as little Bitcoin as you want on regular exchanges.

...

Idk, I'm trying to see it from the side of the "non-techie guy" in trying to come up with reasons to invest in the ETF rather than just the asset itself, and can't really see why?  I understand this is primarily due to me not understanding how ETF's work IRL on the regular markets, but it gets confusing to me after looking up what an ETF is and seeing it's investing in a 'portfolio', when in this case it's just a portfolio of Bitcoin. (?)

[OmegaStarScream]

We all know that ETF got rejected but the decision is being re-examined by SEC:

Further, the Commission hereby establishes that any party to the action or other person may file a written statement in support of or in opposition to the Disapproval Order on or before May 15, 2017

Source: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/batsbzx/2017/34-80511.pdf

[Slark]

We all know that ETF got rejected but the decision is being re-examined by SEC:

Further, the Commission hereby establishes that any party to the action or other person may file a written statement in support of or in opposition to the Disapproval Order on or before May 15, 2017

Source: https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/batsbzx/2017/34-80511.pdf

What 'reexamine' in this case really means? Is this possible that SEC decision will be changed somehow?
Is there a known case from the past when after negative SEC decision another reevaluation changed initial decision?

I feel like SEC will forever give us the same response over and over again 'bitcoin can't be regulated, so there won't be ETF based on it".

[Icaraswipeout]

A bitcoin ETF is good for the like of big pension funds and large investment companies it gives them the regulatory protections they need to invest other peoples money.  Thats what i understand about then, i'm sure there are other benefits.  I think in general its a good thing,  but yes i would rather hold bitcoin myself, but my granny probably wont

Literally bitcoin ETF will bring opportunities to rest of people to invest-only into bitcoin rather than adopting it for investment purposes. It means bitcoin investments will get easier for non-technical people.

Honestly the impact of bitcoin ETF on price levels will be unpredictable as market will react on speculations. Still we all know what are magics new investors will do for us.

Not sure that ETF is really useful when it comes to Crypto.
Now, I don't say their is no room for a public bot that passive management.

[aleksandrivanov99]

Bitcoin ETF is a very good option, as it is going to bring some big non technical and non-crypto investors into this.