Yup, still feeling bearish.

[Flanelcoin]

Gentlemen,

Some great and valid points have been made above. Speculation and price increase are necessary for fluent adoption, and more improvement is done on the system than ever. Just look at how they fixed the fork.

Of course, we need a quantum leap in infrastructure quality. That is holding us back severely, and that caused the recent crash. We need big money and big finance and big technology to help us on that one.

[Manticore]

Gentlemen,

Some great and valid points have been made above. Speculation and price increase are necessary for fluent adoption, and more improvement is done on the system than ever. Just look at how they fixed the fork.

Of course, we need a quantum leap in infrastructure quality. That is holding us back severely, and that caused the recent crash. We need big money and big finance and big technology to help us on that one.

Yes, poor infrastructure is holding it back....but it's more than that. This forum exists in a tiny bubble. I feel like it's difficult for many of you to see outside of this bubble. The main reason Bitcoin needs real infrastructure is to give it legitimacy. The only way there will ever be true mass appeal is if the process to buy/sell bitcoins is seamless (getting there) AND it has legitimate backing by the types of entities at which Bitcoin was invented to thumb its nose. This may allow the general public to buy-in.

Bitcoin needs Wall Street and/or the large elements of the financial community. This grassroots effort will stall at some point without the involvement of serious forces.

[Manticore]

See, the media pump is on. Western Union/MoneyGram simply mention 'Bitcoin' and BTC it goes haywire.

MoneyGram's senior vice president of U.S. and Canada says, "But we've not committed and don't have any imminent plans to announce anything."

This is a rehash of old Western Union news. They mentioned this over a month ago. They basically repeated the same thing in a new interview and apparently it's a whole new world for Bitcoin.

[evolve]

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.







...what could possibly go wrong?

[fitty]

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.


...what could possibly go wrong?

Bear? Is that you? Stop it!

[Frozenlock]

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.
...what could possibly go wrong?

Everything! Isn't it exciting?! 

[Hfleer]

Investor confidence seems to be back on the rise, and some people are saying the bottom is in...I don't buy it for a second; I think its just the calm before the storm.

However, if I am wrong, and we start to bubble up again, I think the results will be catastrophic.

Neither situation is good for BTC, IMO...but I think another bubble would be much worse.

Good luck with that.

[BTC Books]

Well, for what it's worth, here's my fearless prediction:

We'll break $250 within a week from today.  $300 by the following Monday or Tuesday.  The next weekend there will be a very steep drop down to around $150 or so.  All followed by a much slower but steady rise after that.

Why?

Because I don't think the very few big players who are pushing the price care that much about what bitcoin is costing them.  They want the coin - and price, as they say, is no object.  This is long-term thinking by people who are putting relatively small amounts of money into bitcoin:  relative, that is, to their more conventional investments.

So they need to move quickly by pushing the price up as much as possible - because there is a lot of lingering regret in some long-term holders:  "Shit!  I coulda sold a thousand for a quarter mil!  Goddammit!  I will NOT let that go by again!"

The quicker the price gets pushed back up, the fresher those regretful memories will be.  And the more bitcoin these top players will be able to shake loose.

The steep drop afterwards will be for the benefit of the weak-hand holders who get scared that the 'crashes' are too close together and "Oh Crap!  Maybe evolve is right."

I'm probably wrong.  I'm hopeless at trading, myself.  But WTF - that's what I'm thinking.

Hello bears.   

Let's see what happens...

[mp420]

I think the price might just touch $150 before correcting back down.

[Photonfrog]

Its worth to keep in mind that anyone who invests in better infrastructure tech for bitcoins will do so with the ambition to get a solid ROI. This return will come from trading volume measured in fiat.

This type of project is a big investment, so before we can expect better infrastructure we need to see a much higher BTC price, or people will need to increase the frequency of trading by magnitudes. While the price is low the best we can hope for is small incremental improvements and that will take its time to make a noticeable change.

Low BTC price leads to bad infrastructure

High BTC price leads to good infrastructure

These relationships have a direction. Anyone building a good infrastructure now will possibly influence the BTC price a bit but not as reliably as a high BTC price will lead to a better IF.

[BrightAnarchist]

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.







...what could possibly go wrong?

Bear market rally

If it was a new bull, nobody woud be euphoric about it

That's why bulls climb a wall of worry, and bears slide down a slope of hope

[Zaih]

Just chuck it in 

[rpietila]

Bear market rally

If it was a new bull, nobody woud be euphoric about it

That's why bulls climb a wall of worry, and bears slide down a slope of hope

Yeah, I am one of the bulls here and I'm going to short that sucker. No euphoria, thank you. It's a bear market rally.

[Manticore]

The price is shooting up an an unbelievable rate, and forum member are already getting euphoric again.







...what could possibly go wrong?

Bear market rally

If it was a new bull, nobody woud be euphoric about it

That's why bulls climb a wall of worry, and bears slide down a slope of hope

Surprising how fast the euphoria returns.

[evolve]

Yup. I dont think we will be hitting or surpassing the old ATH, for a good long time.  We will probably get fairly close though, and likely within a couple days.

However, at the first sign of another crash, people will be abandoning ship en masse, only this time it'll be faster and harder.  Within a few weeks the volatility swung from <15% to 20% to 50% at the time of the crash...I wouldnt be surprised to see a 70%-75% drop in value this time (and if we get that low, we wont be recovering for a while).

[Logik]

Think about all the people who bought from ~150 to the ATH - what are they going to do now? Sell as soon as they can, imo. If they were sophisticated enough to hold then they probably wouldn't have bought in at those prices in the first place.

[wobber]

Think about all the people who bought from ~150 to the ATH - what are they going to do now? Sell as soon as they can, imo. If they were sophisticated enough to hold then they probably wouldn't have bought in at those prices in the first place.

Many sold ad 50-70. And sold lots of coins.

[Rampion]

Think about all the people who bought from ~150 to the ATH - what are they going to do now? Sell as soon as they can, imo. If they were sophisticated enough to hold then they probably wouldn't have bought in at those prices in the first place.

Many sold ad 50-70. And sold lots of coins.

This is true. We have ATH volume the last days. Just a couple of days +500k coins dumped, volume was even higher than in the first bubble. I don't think there are so many who have a significant amount of coins willing to dump - they already did.

This does not mean we are NOT in a bear market: we are clearly in a bear market. I think the mindset changed for a lot of people: before the crash it was "let's hold to see where it gets". Now its more something like "let's see how soon it arrives to $130 so I can sell". I say $130 but it can be $150 or $160, that point is different for everyone, but I think its clear the mindset changed a lot.

[Kazu]

This does not mean we are NOT in a bear market: we are clearly in a bear market. I think the mindset changed for a lot of people: before the crash it was "let's hold to see where it gets". Now its more something like "let's see how soon it arrives to $130 so I can sell". I say $130 but it can be $150 or $160, that point is different for everyone, but I think its clear the mindset changed a lot.

Can you provide factual evidence for the bolded part? Or is this more of a gut feeling? To me it doesn't seem like we can say that we are in a bear market yet, this could easily be a bear trap. Or we could have sideways consolidation for a while. Yes, if the downward trend solidifies over the next few weeks, I think that would paint more a clear picture.

EDIT: I think this graph gives good perspective.



Fast forward a few months, "bubble 2.0" may just look like a large correction to the consistent underlying bullish trend for the past year.

If this graph is supposed to look bearish, then you did a pretty bad job.
If this graph is supposed to induce a great WTF feeling, then you did a pretty good job.

[johnniewalker]

Yeah, bitcoin is well on its way to mainstream acceptance...In fact, I was going to buy gas, groceries, rent, car payment, any basic neccesity of life, drugs, porn, and trinkets with my BTC today!  I guess, I'll just hold onto them though, because the price can only go up,uP,UP!  

Dont fool yourself, this price is only justified by rampant speculation, not because metart or whoever decided to accept BTC.

+1 cause you made me laugh, not getting into speculation debates