When the all time high gets smashed

[afbitcoins]

A view of bitcoin all time highs being smashed

Here is what bitcoin looked like at one time at the start of 2013. Bitcoin all time high was around 32$ a bubble peak and after a huge correction the price had recovered enough to get close to that old bubble top.



Shortly after that it looked like this.



The all time high was smashed! The old all time high now looking like a shrivelled little bump.

Bitcoin found itself in a very similar formation not long after but at a much higher price level, this time the all time high was at about $260. Bitcoin at the time had recovered from the Silk Road Seizure and was once again close to an all time high.



Shortly after that it looked like this.



Again bitcoin proved the doubters wrong and the all time high was smashed!


Heres todays chart, once again the old all time high dominates but somehow bitcoin has recovered to challenge that old high



Who knows what happens next ??  

Edit:

As of end of October 2017, now looking like this

[manselr]

A nice thread. Those screenshots speak for itself. It's clear that whoever manages to sell right at the top will get really rich, the problem is, you will most likely not be able to sell at the peak, and you will be selling too early, or too late (during the dip before it goes back up and stabilizes).

Looks like the best way is to not risk it and hold across the bump and enjoy the nice new floor that will be stablished after the big squeeze (which again, god knows how high it can go).

It would also be nice to add posts on this thread for historical reference. This is one of the favorites:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=33917.msg425880#msg425880

I would not mind if they were in the $5 range...I think bitcoins have been overpriced for a while.  Look at the run it has had this year.  When CNN and Foxnews puts you on, you become popular.  Unfortunately, the DDoS, hacks, massive sell in June, and recession striking the world have had an impact.  While I think bitcoin has its place...I don't think its place is $15.  I am thinking $8 or so now with MARGINAL increases...not massive ones.

Oh boy... well, I hope that guy is ok. Things like this definitely put things in perspective.

[European Central Bank]

maybe china will turn out to be a supercharged silk road event. what everyone thought was driving the cart turned out to be a little bit of a paper tiger. hard to know yet but it's conceivable.

[jjacob]

Wow... If history repeats itself we are looking at a smashing of the ATH now.
What would be the new peak, my guess is $3K+. The magnitude of the increase has been lower each time.
$32 --> $260 -- $1200. I would be happy with a peak of $3k now. 

[Junko]

Yes, it will be nice in the future to look back at the graph and to see the next few ATH's as just small insignificant bumps along the way. I kind of laugh when I think back to the time well before the last ATH when I dreamed/hoped/prayed that bitcoin would some day once again reach the ATH of $32. LOL

[Seansky]

I really do hope that history might repeat itself but I think it wont this time. Things look different from the situation bitcoin had at that time. The pump to all time high IMO is not healthy for a price since to me it looked like someone was manipulating it and the price we had now is so stable ranging from 1000$-1100$. New all time high might be seen sooner or later this year but im kinda excited to see what price will be bitcoin's new floor.

[NUFCrichard]

The short term floor of over $900 does kind of indicate that the ATH will go pretty soon.
The price is always volatile, so much so that long term staying withing $300 of the ATH without passing through it at some point is unlikely.

Each bubble seems smaller percentage wise than the last. I don't think that $2000 will be breached in the next bubble

[Zadicar]

I really do hope that history might repeat itself but I think it wont this time. Things look different from the situation bitcoin had at that time. The pump to all time high IMO is not healthy for a price since to me it looked like someone was manipulating it and the price we had now is so stable ranging from 1000$-1100$. New all time high might be seen sooner or later this year but im kinda excited to see what price will be bitcoin's new floor.

Im hoping too that this price would be the new floor and would not tend to drop on next months or days or years.I really do have the doubt that anytime this new all time high would decrease and here comes a new and fresh news on bitcoin which causes the price decrease again.lel

[CyberKuro]

A nice thread. Those screenshots speak for itself. It's clear that whoever manages to sell right at the top will get really rich, the problem is, you will most likely not be able to sell at the peak, and you will be selling too early, or too late (during the dip before it goes back up and stabilizes).

Looks like the best way is to not risk it and hold across the bump and enjoy the nice new floor that will be stablished after the big squeeze (which again, god knows how high it can go).

It would also be nice to add posts on this thread for historical reference. This is one of the favorites:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=33917.msg425880#msg425880

I would not mind if they were in the $5 range...I think bitcoins have been overpriced for a while.  Look at the run it has had this year.  When CNN and Foxnews puts you on, you become popular.  Unfortunately, the DDoS, hacks, massive sell in June, and recession striking the world have had an impact.  While I think bitcoin has its place...I don't think its place is $15.  I am thinking $8 or so now with MARGINAL increases...not massive ones.

Oh boy... well, I hope that guy is ok. Things like this definitely put things in perspective.

Whenever bitcoin price reach certain point, massive sell will happen again in order to get nice profits based on their capital.
This is how it works everytime in every commodity as capital want to get some portion, unless bitcoin market cap getting bigger.
But, how the market cap will grow if we stay on this cycle? It will like what happens all this time, slowly but surely as long as new adopters and merchants join into community.

[BillyBobZorton]

The short term floor of over $900 does kind of indicate that the ATH will go pretty soon.
The price is always volatile, so much so that long term staying withing $300 of the ATH without passing through it at some point is unlikely.

Each bubble seems smaller percentage wise than the last. I don't think that $2000 will be breached in the next bubble

$1000 is new floor. Doubters will not let the price go below $1000 again, they will enter everytime it dips now and gets close to $1000. We already saw this hours ago. $1039 dip and people got nervous so they jumped in and bought it and we are back to $1050.

[FlightyPouch]

Is just me or I am really looking at it and its like i can see a pattern in this chart. It is like a wave, first one getting high on the left side, the next one on the right side and so on.
I think it is just a coincidence but it is really good, and I think it will till go higher, hope it goes lower and then go higher again.

[Denker]

Is just me or I am really looking at it and its like i can see a pattern in this chart. It is like a wave, first one getting high on the left side, the next one on the right side and so on.
I think it is just a coincidence but it is really good, and I think it will till go higher, hope it goes lower and then go higher again.

If you wanna see pattern then there will be pattern, even when there aren't any.
This is often a very subjective impression.
Funny how our brain works right.

[BrewMaster]

forgive me if it is newbish question, it comes from the fact that i have little experience with tradingviw.

but why does the two first charts are saying Silver / U.S. Dollar in the background of the chart?

[BillyBobZorton]

Is just me or I am really looking at it and its like i can see a pattern in this chart. It is like a wave, first one getting high on the left side, the next one on the right side and so on.
I think it is just a coincidence but it is really good, and I think it will till go higher, hope it goes lower and then go higher again.

Bitcoin is growing exponentially, this is the new big bubble of 2013 reloaded, now with a bigger marketcap, more mature software, lots of exchanges, up and coming ETF... the peak will be impossible to predict. x10 is easily possible, so a $10,000 peak with a new $5,000 floor is not far fetched. This and 2018 will be insane years for BTC holders.

[afbitcoins]

forgive me if it is newbish question, it comes from the fact that i have little experience with tradingviw.

but why does the two first charts are saying Silver / U.S. Dollar in the background of the chart?

Its a wierd thing to do with how to access MtGox data on the trading view website www.tradingview.com , you have to pick some other symbol which had a feed running during the MtGox era, then compare with MtGox then you can hide the other symbol. Can't use most bitcoin markets as they weren't around in those days. Silver was just random, could have been any other.

[Febo]

Wow... If history repeats itself we are looking at a smashing of the ATH now.
What would be the new peak, my guess is $3K+. The magnitude of the increase has been lower each time.
$32 --> $260 -- $1200. I would be happy with a peak of $3k now. 

Good point I also think that next bubble ATH will not be as high as so many expect. It will be around 3k and one bubble after will be only double of that. I guess the third bubble people will not call a bubble anymore

[Arcteryx]

I remember the same time last year it was around $700 right?
And it started to cool down after that.
So if history tends to repeat it's self then expect it to go down before it goes up.
So expecting it to get to the ath we might need to wait for it to go down a couple of more times so we don't have  it's just a bubble response later on.

[d5000]

Thank you for the pics, OP. They show something most of the commentators do not (want to) realize: that this time it's different.

In all the previous intents, the ATH was smashed at most a few days after the price approached it. In the end-2013 rally there was already a bit more resistance but in 10 days it was broken.

This time, we got already very, very close to the ATH (~20 USD or ~2% if we take the ~1160 Bitstamp high as reference) but the resistance was very strong and the price went down about 30 % after the first intent. The second intent failed at ~1075. We could be still in the same uptrend but it's also possible that it's already the first "dead cat bounce", as this price level was still not reached again.

I think that one of the possible explanations is that the market is now more mature and a little bit less volatile (there are no +30% crashes in a single day anymore like in 2013) so there must be a substantially higher "euphory" in the community to break the ATH. But at the other hand, when looking at the fundamentals, there is no clear positive sentiment - there are possible new bullish news like the first LN alpha version and the possible approval of the ETF, but also the (very negative) stalemate with respect to Segwit.

[1Referee]

the (very negative) stalemate with respect to Segwit.

I am happy with what we have achieved so far (price-wise), but I constantly try to temper my happiness knowing that we potentially might go through a hell of a bear market due to the uncertainty around Segwit. It's clear that we (more than ever) need to see the block size get upgraded to a higher number, but as it is, there are zero indications of this to become reality within a reasonable amount of time. In the meanwhile it gives alternatives such as BU more time to take a stronger position in this whole nonsense situation. Nonsense because pools should stop fooling around and just accept Segwit to help Bitcoin move further.

[Slark]

maybe china will turn out to be a supercharged silk road event. what everyone thought was driving the cart turned out to be a little bit of a paper tiger. hard to know yet but it's conceivable.

I thought about this possibility too! And maybe it wont be that bad after all? Especially not in the long term.
I mean price of BTC would crash for sure, maybe even by 50% or more, hard to tell.
But when the dust falls out of the air, trading would be resumed and Chinese influence over BTC market will be severed significantly.