MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[Rampion]

I don't understand what the spread in prices means when MtGox site goes back live. Lots of people are selling thousands and millions of dollars of bitcoin on mtgox because it is priced higher than it should be.

Why would someone buy bitcoin so high?

this is ridiculous.

People with money on Gox are in panic, because USD withdrawals have become very slow or impossibly. Don't try to understand a panic. Deal with it.  

USD withdraws?

Everything but JPY withdraws are slowed to nearly a halt. There's less than a dozen reports a WEEK of people receiving SEPA/SWIFT transfers on this forum - they aren't happening.

Well, check early June - people were complaining of huge delays in SEPA, but nevertheless this is my Withdraw history:

WITHDRAW 1: requested June 3th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 2: requested June 4th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 3: requested June 9th, received on June 11th

So, what about that? SEPA withdrawals clearing in 2/3 days, while this forum was already full of whiners about how delayed were SEPA their transfers. We can dig out posts to see how in that precise days people was saying they were waiting their 500€ since April or so at the same time I requested my withdrawals (I remember perfectly because I was nervous, I needed the money fast and I was ready to take a loan as I thought that I was going to have to wait 3 weeks or more - I was very happily surprised by how fast those came trough). I can also tell you that I'm certainly no whale, but I don't have peanuts in there neither. Those 3 withdrawals combine were something like in the mid 5 figures range. This makes me think I'm not the only one that received good service from Gox, but obviously people with problems is much louder than people that has no issues.

[1713882550]

1713882550

[1713882550]

1713882550

[OhShei8e]

WITHDRAW 1: requested June 3th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 2: requested June 4th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 3: requested June 9th, received on June 11th

So, what about that?

In early June I had two withdrawals, which were executed within days. But all the others have lasted much longer. You've just had luck. Thats all. Be happy. 

[Rampion]

WITHDRAW 1: requested June 3th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 2: requested June 4th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 3: requested June 9th, received on June 11th

So, what about that?

In early June I had two withdrawals, which were executed within days. But all the others have lasted much longer. You've just had luck. Thats all. Be happy.  

The withdraw issues didn't start happening until June 20th (hiatus on USD withdraws). So both of your comments about successful withdraws are irrelevant. The funny thing is that not only are USD withdraws affected, but now EUR, CAD, are being affected as well.  

What are you talking about? Just check this very thread, the OP is from mid-April and there are TONS of people complaining regarding wires (especially SEPA) that were experiencing big delays. Some quotes from the days in which I requested and successfully received my withdrawals:

I've been waiting for my 1000 € for 33 days now. It still says "up to 3 weeks" on their site (and it said 2 weeks around the time I made the withdraw).

I've been waiting 5 weeks for my SEPA withdrawal, I see I'm not alone.

If I don't get the money in a week I'm going to let debt collectors handle it. It's better I get half the money with debt collectors taking half as fees than nothing at all.

I requested a SEPA withdrawal two weeks ago.
First my withdrawal was in status "pending", a few days later in "confirmed" - and now it's back again in "pending".

I am still waiting for my money.

WTF!?

And the list goes on, just check this very thread and make a forum search, you will see that there was already MANY complaints those days (some context: just few days earlier happened the Liberty Reserve shutdwon and 10/15 days earlier the Dwolla situation). Yes, the "USD hiatus" didn't happen yet, but I read the very same complains about people waiting many weeks, while it seems big volume traders (mrbigg; epsiking) report they are receiving their money without too much wait. I don't see how the SEPA picture could change after the "USD hiatus", in fact it looks pretty much the same: some people waiting +5 weeks until they have to cancel the withdraw and buy BTC (see sd quoted above, after 5 weeks and a half he finally canceleed and bought BTC), and some people probably receiving their money with no issues.

[S3052]

WITHDRAW 1: requested June 3th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 2: requested June 4th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 3: requested June 9th, received on June 11th

So, what about that?

In early June I had two withdrawals, which were executed within days. But all the others have lasted much longer. You've just had luck. Thats all. Be happy. 

June was nothing compared to now.
In July, my withdrawals stopped being processed.
Finally I bought bitcoins back and withdrew them. Goodbye mtgox.
In the end its Easy.

[morningtime]

Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.

[Rampion]

Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.

I usually receive 9,915€ for those - I guess it's not only Gox, there are other parties taking commissions.

[qxzn]

No, it is a very poor analysis.  Arb opportunities rarely exist in mainstream markets for more than a few microseconds.  With the current Gox situation you are looking at 5-15% variance for over 2 months!  The reason why this exists is because no one can reliably get wire their money out, otherwise someone (ANYONE) would have taken advantage of it.  The arb exists because it can't be realized.  

hahahaha

I'm not sure what you find humorous.  But I understand it must be frustrating lacking the capability to understand basic concepts in finance.  Find me an academic paper that states that arb opporuntities can exist over extended (long) periods of time....You won't.  Remember, if someone could have taken advantage of the arb opportunity there wouldn't be an extended price variance.  But if you'd like to read up on arbitrage so you can make some relatively intelligent comments, then I encourage you to read the links below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_pricing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_equilibrium

And here is one academic paper out of hundreds:

Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets

"Using the “firm” quotes obtained from the tick-by-tick EBS (electronic broking system that is a major trading platform for foreign exchanges) data, it is found that risk-free arbitrage opportunities—free lunch—do occur in the foreign exchange markets, but it typically last only a few seconds....The probability of its disappearance within one second was less than 50% in 1999, but increased to about 90% by 2009."

http://www.nber.org/papers/w18541

Zeroblock, I don't understand why you are on this quixotic campaign to convince everyone that bitcoin markets are efficient. You have already admitted that you don't have any personal experience with the matter. You're quoting wikipedia articles written by academics looking at the stock market instead of asking traders who make their living doing arbitrage.

I know you're wrong, from personal experience. That said, I don't care so much what you think, and in fact it's fine if you want to teach everyone that the markets are efficient, you'll just discourage more of my competition (thanks!).

The thing that I don't understand is, why is it so important to you that everyone thinks the way you do?

[morningtime]

Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.

I usually receive 9,915€ for those - I guess it's not only Gox, there are other parties taking commissions.

I guess so. I find it bit strange. When I wire 10,000 to Mt.Gox it only costs 1.20 EUR instead of 100 EUR. I guess their bank's withdrawals have different rates. I thought the EUR SEPA zone was supposed to get rid of these costs.

Anyway, of course I'm very happy to receive funds.

[Rampion]

Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.

I usually receive 9,915€ for those - I guess it's not only Gox, there are other parties taking commissions.

I guess so. I find it bit strange. When I wire 10,000 to Mt.Gox it only costs 1.20 EUR instead of 100 EUR. I guess their bank's withdrawals have different rates. I thought the EUR SEPA zone was supposed to get rid of these costs.

Anyway, of course I'm very happy to receive funds.

Thanks for posting good news for a change. It looks like +10,000€ wires indeed clear faster.

[Pale Phoenix]

Thanks for posting good news for a change. It looks like +10,000€ wires indeed clear faster.

LOL One person posts about a wire received in 12 days and that's good news? 12 fucking days?

Anyway, you are completely wrong about +10k wires. People in this very thread have +100k withdrawals pending.

You people defending Gox by cherry picking bits of "good news" while ignoring the huge number of reported problems and broken promises look like disgusting shills from the outside. Just sayin.

[zeroblock]

Zeroblock, I don't understand why you are on this quixotic campaign to convince everyone that bitcoin markets are efficient. You have already admitted that you don't have any personal experience with the matter. You're quoting wikipedia articles written by academics looking at the stock market instead of asking traders who make their living doing arbitrage.

I know you're wrong, from personal experience. That said, I don't care so much what you think, and in fact it's fine if you want to teach everyone that the markets are efficient, you'll just discourage more of my competition (thanks!).

The thing that I don't understand is, why is it so important to you that everyone thinks the way you do?

I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.  I don't want you to influence uneducated users, who then might transfer money to Gox, thinking that Gox is liquid enough to withdraw fiat.  Then their funds will be stuck and exposed to the risk of Gox failure.  

I agree with you that small arbitrage opportunities might exist, however it looks like large arb opportunity cannot exist to do cash flow limits.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277455.msg2972810#msg2972810.  The reality is that Gox can't support large outflows of cash, this is proven by the existing spread.  No large player can take advantage of the arb opportunity, otherwise the spread would be 0%.  Therefore, this arb opportunity will exist and spread larger and larger as traders on Gox realize that they can't actually cash out large sums.  In fact, the sustained (average) spread increased yesterday (8/19) to an all time record of 16%.  That was the average spread throughout the entire day. And yes, you might be able to take advantage of small arb opportunities, but you still expose yourself to the risk of Gox failing. You might make a 50% profit, then lose your entire initial capital when Gox closes up.  




Each day that passes proves my point.  The spread is widening at an alarming rate.   A week ago it was 10%.  Where do you think that spread is heading?  And why do you think it is heading that way?  Its a loss of confidence with Gox that is accelerating.  What's the tipping point? 20%? (already happened) 25% 30%? Certainly that tipping point is not too far away. At this pace, I see Gox's end within the next 4-6 weeks.  If anyone would like the excel spreadsheet containing my data or charts, please PM me.  

[BitCoinNutJob]

I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking. 

99% of people on bitcointalk know depositing @ gox & expecting a quick withdraw at this point is risky its all over the forum.  Whats your real motivation?

[OhShei8e]

June was nothing compared to now.
In July, my withdrawals stopped being processed.
Finally I bought bitcoins back and withdrew them. Goodbye mtgox.
In the end its Easy.

I do not understand why experienced people like you are so enraged. You've decided to withdraw your money there, okay. You pay for it but have your safety now. So what? Why do we do not even calm down again?

Gox can of course go to the dogs but how likely is that? In all likelihood Gox will remain an important exchange that you want to use again.

I find the present situation even exciting. I am working for the first time with alternatives to Gox. But if we lose Gox, what would we have won? It would proof that no exchange can survived long term. We get stuck into bitcoin marketplaces like localbitcoins and the trading volume remains permanently low. Without exchanges bitcoin will never be an alternative to other currencies.

[OhShei8e]

Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.

Wow, really? That would be the current speed record. Very good.

[BitCoinNutJob]

I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.

99% of people on bitcointalk know depositing @ gox & expecting a quick withdraw at this point is risky its all over the forum.  Whats your real motivation?

Actually, I've found alot of people still don't realize the problems at Gox.  My company, ZeroBlock focuses on providing real time market data and aggregated news feeds cross platform on all devices. http://www.zeroblock.com/  We are currently deployed on iOS and will soon be on Android.  My only motivation is to spread information.  I've read more articles and analysis and anyone else in the world (the app was in beta for 1 month).  And what I'm seeing is a serous problem with Gox that needs to be addressed head on by Karpeles.  Once the news about the spread hits a mainstream news source, Gox is finished.

If gox all of a sudden finishes that is bad for the crypto community do you understand this? large sums of investment gone.   Gox can lose market share without dying, this is optimum for the bitcoin community. 

[sturle]

No one wants Gox to die, it just simply looks like that is what is going to happen.

MtGox has well over 50% of the market and shows no signs of dying.  It is the only exchange featuring proper multi-currency trading, it has the most secure and mature API, has the deepest books and is the most trusted of all exchanges.  MtGox has survived worse problems in the past, and will come out stronger.

[qxzn]

Nice Thesaurus lookup of "quixotic," that's definitely a word that is in common use. 

I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.  I don't want you to influence uneducated users, who then might transfer money to Gox, thinking that Gox is liquid enough to withdraw fiat.  Then their funds will be stuck and exposed to the risk of Gox failure. 

I quote wikipedia articles because I believe that is where someone with your level of intelligence should start. So you know "I am wrong from personal experience," without any factual backup? 
Fantastic analysis.

You are pretty upset eh? It's cool, vent it out at me, I can take it.

I can admit that I do agree with you that small arbitrage opportunities might exist, however it looks like large arb opportunity cannot exist to do cash flow limits.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277455.msg2972810#msg2972810.  The reality is that Gox can't support large outflows of cash, this is proven by the existing spread.  No large player can take advantage of the arb opportunity, otherwise the spread would be 0%.  Therefore, this arb opportunity will exist and spread larger and larger as traders on Gox realize that they can't actually cash out large sums.  In fact, the sustained (average) spread increased yesterday (8/19) to an all time record of 16%.  That was the average spread throughout the entire day. And yes, you might be able to take advantage of small arb opportunities, but you still expose yourself to the risk of Gox failing. You might make a 50% profit, then lose your entire initial capital when Gox closes up. 

Each day that passes proves my point.  The spread is widening at an alarming rate.   A week ago it was 10%.  Where do you think that spread is heading?  And why do you think it is heading that way?  Its a loss of confidence with Gox that is accelerating.  What's the tipping point? 20%? (already happened) 25% 30%? Certainly that tipping point is not too far away. At this pace, I see Gox's end within the next 4-6 weeks.  If anyone would like the excel spreadsheet containing my data or charts, please PM me. 

Hey, I doubt we see the facts all that differently.. I was just hoping to get you to tone down your claims a bit. Saying things like "arbitrage opportunities only exist for microseconds in modern markets" is really a misleading statement, because (1) it's not even true in the major stock exchanges (microseconds is *really* fast! you get into things like light speed limitations and such at that level..) and (2) bitcoin is far from a mature, efficient market like the major electronic markets around the world.

That said, I agree that this is not just a pure arb sitting there for every doofus to take advantage of. There's enormous counterparty risk at mtgox right now, and some at the other exchanges as well. So the term "risk-free profit" is really misleading as well.. if you sell the spread, you're basically making a bet that mtgox will eventually wire your money.

It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic. Hardly jives with "I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking." I mean, it's cool to me because our algorithms are experiencing increased trade volumes and profits due to people panic trading, nevertheless it hardly seems charitable to incite people to more panic trading.

[sturle]

If anyone would like the excel spreadsheet containing my data or charts, please PM me. 

Please share the data you have on when the CoinLab suit started.  

[BitCoinNutJob]

I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.

99% of people on bitcointalk know depositing @ gox & expecting a quick withdraw at this point is risky its all over the forum.  Whats your real motivation?

Actually, I've found alot of people still don't realize the problems at Gox.  My company, ZeroBlock focuses on providing real time market data and aggregated news feeds cross platform on all devices. http://www.zeroblock.com/  We are currently deployed on iOS and will soon be on Android.  My only motivation is to spread information.  I've read more articles and analysis and anyone else in the world (the app was in beta for 1 month).  And what I'm seeing is a serous problem with Gox that needs to be addressed head on by Karpeles.  Once the news about the spread hits a mainstream news source, Gox is finished.

If gox all of a sudden finishes that is bad for the crypto community do you understand this? large sums of investment gone.   Gox can lose market share without dying, this is optimum for the bitcoin community.  

I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin).  But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves.  Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist.

ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off.

[Nagle]

I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin).  But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves.  Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist.

If they haven't been stealing customer funds, they should be able to get out of this hole. If they have been stealing customer funds, they're going down.

The real problem is denial of their obligations. Mt. Gox has serious financial obligations to their customers, and they try to sleaze out of them. That's usually associated with scams.

A legit Bitcoin exchange is probably going to have to register as a broker/dealer in some G-20 country, and comply with the regulations for regular brokers. Audits, insurance, capital requirements - it's not just about money laundering. Brokers hold customer assets, and somebody needs to be checking on them to see that they have those assets. Bitfloor and Bitcoinica customers learned that the hard way.

It looked for a while that CoinLab, which was backed by Silicon Valley Bank and some VCs, was going to do that for Mt. Gox. But they had a falling out within two months of signing a deal, and now they're in litigation.