MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[Zarathustra]

Sturle & Zarathustra

Looks like you'll have to agree to disagree on this point.


We both get the points you're making and some will agree with one and others will agree with the other.

This is an issue of opinion and neither one is necessarily correct.

Time will tell which one of you is right for this occasion though.

Yes, but I can not be wrong, because I don't predict that gox will go bankrupt. I only say, that companies with such behavier do have a high risk of going bankrupt, which is reflected in the market price.

[1714056266]

1714056266

[OhShei8e]

99 euro, dafuq? 1 btc is 90 euro on gox right now.

Yes, at the moment. We soon see $ 135 on Gox. Thats € 101, but I always speculate very conservative, so I sell for € 99.5.

That's not the right way to do arbitrage.    You should sell immediately at the current gox price (perhaps even lower so you get immediate sales), withdraw the money, and re-fund bitstamp when withdrawal is done.  Rinse and Repeat.

Under normal circumstances, you're right. But the circumstances are not normal. For obvious reasons I have to wait for the SEPA withdrawal from Gox for weeks. For the same reasons the price on Gox will not decline. I plot the charts and the order book very accurate. The USD / BTC ratio on Gox is now at about $ 200 and it continues to rise. There may be setbacks from time to time, but the price will continue to rise.

[sturle]

Us gov froze all the SWIFT/IBAN transfer of MtGox. SEPA still working.
--->According to RealSolid who talked to MagicalTux

Third hand information on this forum is very often wrong.  Perhaps RealSolid could tell us what MagicalTux actually said.  Did he explain how MtGox still manage to get USD wires out to customers?

From #bitcoin-otc on Freenode yesterday:

Code:

15:43 < joesmoe> received wire from gox today, just to clarify, transfers are working, albeit slowly. 6 figures USD.

Here is another one showing that MtGox indeed can wire money to the USSA (Luke-Jr lives in Florida):

Code:

13:18 <@MagicalTux> [20:18:44] <Blitzboom> how does a manual process work, and how much does it cost? <- you need to request it, and cost is only disclosed under a light NDA
13:19 < Luke-Jr> MagicalTux: what's involved in "go through the manual process"? I have a wire outstanding 21 days now, didn't realize there was more to it..
13:19 <@MagicalTux> Luke-Jr: contacting me usually works
13:19 <@MagicalTux> we'll need the reference id for the transfer too
13:20 <@MagicalTux> (or many transfers we can send as one)

[zeroblock]

Smart Money is exiting.

 

[sturle]

Smart Money is exiting.

(I have no idea what you are trying to say with that graph.  It shows that the big traders are still playing at MtGox.  Not much more.)

Smart money is becoming more smart money through arbitrage.  Did you make your favourite graph again today?  (Remember to fix the CoinLab rectangle, btw, and perhaps add LR and OKpay.)

21:20 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.74957668657 %.

[cedivad]

Exiting, where?
There is not the corresponding selling pressure on bitstamp.

[zeroblock]

Exiting, where?
There is not the corresponding selling pressure on bitstamp.

Klao,

Have you analyzed the most recent price movements at Gox?  Looks like they fall under the large buy orders from whales category.

Here's the results for today:

2013-08-21 00:04:42 UTC:      (462 ts in 17s) 3471.65 @ 123.29 BUY (min: 122.34, max: 124.45) big ts: ["249.98","199.15","167.00","138.50"]
2013-08-21 01:54:53 UTC:      (78 ts in 4s) 680.50 @ 124.50 BUY (min: 123.49, max: 124.70) big ts: ["166.43","115.05","72.97","43.00"]
2013-08-21 02:50:27 UTC:      (36 ts in 1s) 1088.79 @ 124.90 BUY (min: 124.83, max: 124.91) big ts: ["497.85","300.00","49.75","40.00"]
2013-08-21 03:36:44 UTC:      (129 ts in 6s) 1000.00 @ 121.68 SELL (min: 121.00, max: 123.04) big ts: ["140.54","124.78","112.42","69.60"]
2013-08-21 04:49:13 UTC:      (95 ts in 4s) 490.00 @ 120.40 SELL (min: 120.00, max: 121.00) big ts: ["40.00","40.00","39.00","30.00"]
2013-08-21 13:27:46 UTC:      (94 ts in 4s) 868.91 @ 120.23 SELL (min: 120.00, max: 121.48) big ts: ["100.00","98.00","91.65","83.33"]
2013-08-21 14:38:38 UTC:      (78 ts in 4s) 1000.00 @ 121.71 BUY (min: 120.43, max: 122.50) big ts: ["100.00","100.00","65.94","60.00"]
2013-08-21 14:39:36 UTC:      (146 ts in 6s) 1000.00 @ 123.32 BUY (min: 120.55, max: 123.99) big ts: ["175.51","132.73","90.00","43.12"]
2013-08-21 16:06:39 UTC:      (152 ts in 5s) 1000.00 @ 123.57 BUY (min: 121.01, max: 124.23) big ts: ["133.33","60.00","46.00","40.00"]
2013-08-21 16:07:29 UTC:      (225 ts in 8s) 2404.00 @ 124.75 BUY (min: 123.40, max: 125.00) big ts: ["401.16","173.58","102.18","101.00"]
2013-08-21 18:06:17 UTC:      (108 ts in 4s) 1021.96 @ 124.39 BUY (min: 122.93, max: 124.91) big ts: ["250.00","71.19","60.79","40.00"]
2013-08-21 18:46:40 UTC:      (44 ts in 2s) 444.98 @ 124.21 BUY (min: 123.00, max: 124.90) big ts: ["57.00","50.00","50.00","40.00"]


Again, we have several very obvious exact 1k orders. And a few even bigger. For example, the 2404 BTC one had probably limit price of 125 and exhausted the order book.

Interestingly, today we had more big sells. But still, the buys dominate.

Whales are buying BTC in large quantities to move out of Gox.  They don't necessarily need to cash out immediately.  They could be holding BTC for speculative purposes as there is no other exchange that could possibly handle that volume (neither can Gox, that's why the price has moved so dramatically).

This is quite obvious when you see such large buy orders in 1 minute time spans vs a gradual move up in price. 

[sturle]

Whales are buying BTC in large quantities to move out of Gox.  They don't necessarily need to cash out immediately.  They could be holding BTC for speculative purposes as there is no other exchange that could possibly handle that volume (neither can Gox, that's why the price has moved so dramatically).

This is quite obvious when you see such large buy orders in 1 minute time spans vs a gradual move up in price. 

They are buying BTC in large quantities to move out of MtGox, but they don't move it out of MtGox?  Is this some kind of New Speak for speculative buying because they believe the price is going up?  Not Exactly New in the world of Bitcoin trading.  What about the even larger price increase at Bitstamp?  Is that people buying BTC on Bitstamp to move out of Bitstamp, but they don't actually move it out of Bitstamp, or something?  No, this is entirely in your own head.

[Zarathustra]

Whales are buying BTC in large quantities to move out of Gox.  They don't necessarily need to cash out immediately.  They could be holding BTC for speculative purposes as there is no other exchange that could possibly handle that volume (neither can Gox, that's why the price has moved so dramatically).

This is quite obvious when you see such large buy orders in 1 minute time spans vs a gradual move up in price.  

They are buying BTC in large quantities to move out of MtGox, but they don't move it out of MtGox?  Is this some kind of New Speak for speculative buying because they believe the price is going up?  

Where did zeroblock argue that they don't move it out of MtGox? Sometimes it would be no disadvantage zu keep quiet.

[Zarathustra]

Numbers tell otherwise.  Well over 50% market share, and by far the deepest order book of all exchanges.  MtGox is clearly the most trusted of all exchanges.

MtGox is clearly those exchange of the bigger ones, that is losing market share at the highest speed.

Their market share has always been following volume, and volume has been extraordinary low for a while.  MtGox went back over 80% for a while yesterday when volume was high (24h volume).

Today is a high volume day. Biggest volume at BitStamp since more than 5 weeks, but today BitStamp is not far behind Gox. (24k / 29k)
The times they are a changin ...

[sturle]

Today is a high volume day. Biggest volume at BitStamp since more than 5 weeks, but today BitStamp is not far behind Gox. (24k / 29k)
The times they are a changin ...

Yep, it's the smart money doing arbitrage.  Difference between MtGox and Bitstamp is back below 10% now:

 23:33 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.6536870263 %.

Your volume for MtGox is too low, btw.  You only counted USD volume.  Add almost 4k EUR trades, almost 1.8k JPY trades, and more than 2k in other currencies.

[OhShei8e]

Today is a high volume day. Biggest volume at BitStamp since more than 5 weeks, but today BitStamp is not far behind Gox. (24k / 29k)
The times they are a changin ...

For Bitstamp it's big, for Gox its puny.

[erk]

Today is a high volume day. Biggest volume at BitStamp since more than 5 weeks, but today BitStamp is not far behind Gox. (24k / 29k)
The times they are a changin ...

For Bitstamp it's big, for Gox its puny.

More so it only looks at one currency pair, Gox does many. If you add them up bitstamp only does about 1/4-1/3 of the Gox weekly volume.

[Zarathustra]

Today is a high volume day. Biggest volume at BitStamp since more than 5 weeks, but today BitStamp is not far behind Gox. (24k / 29k)
The times they are a changin ...

Yep, it's the smart money doing arbitrage.  Difference between MtGox and Bitstamp is back below 10% now:

Some whales left the junk exchange and therefore the buying pressure is diminishing for a while.
An you still don't understand arbitrage. To move money into junk bonds and back into high grade bonds is as less arbitrage as to move money between junk exchanges and real exchanges. It is speculation.

Your volume for MtGox is too low, btw.  You only counted USD volume.  Add almost 4k EUR trades, almost 1.8k JPY trades, and more than 2k in other currencies.

I always count the same to follow the decline of gox market share.

[Rampion]

Exiting, where?
There is not the corresponding selling pressure on bitstamp.

This. It's true that tens of k's are leaving Gox, but they are not showing up on Bitstamp at all. And this have been going on for months now. Just check the order books.

[sturle]

Today is a high volume day. Biggest volume at BitStamp since more than 5 weeks, but today BitStamp is not far behind Gox. (24k / 29k)
The times they are a changin ...

Yep, it's the smart money doing arbitrage.  Difference between MtGox and Bitstamp is back below 10% now:

You still don't understand arbitrage. To move money into junk bonds and back into high grade bonds is as less arbitrage as to move money between junk exchanges and real exchanges. It is speculation.

People are moving fiat money from MtGox to other exchanges to buy BTC at a low price, which they sell on MtGox for what the BTC is worth.  Repeat.  This is arbitrage.  Read about it.  BTC is BTC.  EUR is EUR.  You become richer in the process, which makes it a smart move.  Hence smart money.

Your volume for MtGox is too low, btw.  You only counted USD volume.  Add almost 4k EUR trades, almost 1.8k JPY trades, and more than 2k in other currencies.

I always count the same to follow the decline of gox market share.

Eh?  You count it wrong so you can pretend to yourself it is declining?  You add up all currencies at Bitstamp because Bitstamp don't know how to implement a real multi currency exchange, so why not use a comparable measure for MtGox?

[sturle]

Exiting, where?
There is not the corresponding selling pressure on bitstamp.

This. It's true that tens of k's are leaving Gox, but they are not showing up on Bitstamp at all. And this have been going on for months now. Just check the order books.

Very slowly.  There is still more BTC in the order books on MtGox than there were in April.  But, yes.  It looks like some are hoarding BTC.  Prepare for rally!

[doobeedoo]

The truth is it seems pretty random. What's obvious is that the "withdrawals are processed in receiving order" is utter BS. Just now some people reports SEPA withdrawals clearing in 15/20 days, some others have been +5 weeks waiting.

International wires are processed in receiving order.  No word about the processing order of SEPA withdrawals, but I suspect they start with the oldest and run through the queue while skipping those which are too large to fit within the daily quota.  This means smaller SEPA withdrawals will have a small advantage.

If you have been waiting 5 weeks for a SEPA withdrawal, you should contact support and ask if anything is wrong.  It probably is.  Some wrong info perhaps, like joesmoe who misspelled his Japanese name, or it got in the international (SWIFT) queue by mistake.

5 weeks seem to be a short time, depending on the size of the withdraw.

05-14-2013 - 800 EUR sepa - received 05-21-2013
05-22-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 05-23-2013
06-01-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 06-04-2013
06-04-2013 - 1000 EUR sepa - received 07-30-2013
06-19-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 07-01-2013
06-27-2013 - 750 EUR sepa - received 08-08-2013
06-28-2013 - 750 EUR int.wire - still open
07-01-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 07-16-2013
08-09-2013 - 300 EUR sepa - still open

as you can see, it may take about 2 month for 1000 EUR.
my limit is 1000 EUR per day.
support giving just standard answers - no help.

This fits well with the latest information from MtGox.  SEPA withdrawal times are decreasing.  Aug. 9th was a Friday, and if it was done in normal daytime in Europe processing started on Monday 12th.  It should arrive any time now.  Just cancel your international wire.  It is going to take a very long time.  As a verified user you can easily increase your daily limit to 10k EUR by asking support.

no, i have been waiting 2 month for 1000 EUR and more than 1 month for 750 EUR.
it shows, that smaller amounts up to 500 EUR are much faster. maybe it's better to split it in smaller amounts.

[sturle]

no, i have been waiting 2 month for 1000 EUR and more than 1 month for 750 EUR.
it shows, that smaller amounts up to 500 EUR are much faster. maybe it's better to split it in smaller amounts.

Are they listed as SEPA or International?  SEPA is fast, international fits your description.

[doobeedoo]

no, i have been waiting 2 month for 1000 EUR and more than 1 month for 750 EUR.
it shows, that smaller amounts up to 500 EUR are much faster. maybe it's better to split it in smaller amounts.

Are they listed as SEPA or International?  SEPA is fast, international fits your description.

reading my post could help...

05-14-2013 - 800 EUR sepa - received 05-21-2013
05-22-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 05-23-2013
06-01-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 06-04-2013
06-04-2013 - 1000 EUR sepa - received 07-30-2013
06-19-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 07-01-2013
06-27-2013 - 750 EUR sepa - received 08-08-2013
06-28-2013 - 750 EUR int.wire - still open
07-01-2013 - 500 EUR sepa - received 07-16-2013
08-09-2013 - 300 EUR sepa - still open