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Author Topic: Here comes the bitcoin crash!  (Read 6835 times)
drknark
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June 17, 2011, 03:12:59 PM
 #41


Of course BTC will be volatile, fluctuate a lot, but overall trend is only UP.

yeah would be great. I think higher Difficulty results in higher Prices Smiley


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MINING DIFFICULTY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BITCOIN PRICE.

Personally I have a third viewpoint. I don't think higher difficulty can result in higher prices, supply will be the same no matter what the difficulty. Therefore only increased demand can result in higher prices.

But saying difficulty has nothing to do with the price cannot, in my mind, be correct either. The most logical connection is that increased price leads to higher difficulty. This is because high prices will make more people buy mining hardware.

Decreasing price would however probably not lead to decreasing difficulty, since most people who already have the hardware will keep running it until the electricity cost is say more than half the income they get.
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Transactions must be included in a block to be properly completed. When you send a transaction, it is broadcast to miners. Miners can then optionally include it in their next blocks. Miners will be more inclined to include your transaction if it has a transaction fee.
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Alex Beckenham
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June 17, 2011, 03:14:56 PM
 #42

There has to be a reason for price to move

Weekend vs weekdays.

dday
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June 17, 2011, 04:02:52 PM
 #43

It just hit $15.01!!  If it goes in the $14's I think things are going to get ugly!
perfectchoice4u
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June 17, 2011, 04:06:59 PM
 #44

I think that Bitcoins will continue to rise until the amount you get for completing a batch goes from 50 to 25 in 18 months or so.

I DO NOT think that the media attention is all you believe it to be. I am and have studied economics, outside of an academic environment, and have been a trader and speculator (accurately) for years.

There were a few news articles on it. Your VERY sensitive to bitcoin news, for the simple reason your on this forum.

For every person that saw something on bitcoins in the media, 10,000 people continues to live in ignorance of its existence.
For Every person that saw something, 1000 of the people that saw it barely looked it over,
Out of those few select people, maybe a couple of people looked into it for 15 minutes
And maybe 1 out of 1000 got here

Bitcoins lack something that's always indicative of a bubble. "The housewife factor"
During the dotcom bubble you had soccer moms talking about owning yahoo and other dotcom stocks.
During the housing bubble you had lower income single mothers dying to own an investment in their future

Go ask your friends mother what a bitcoin is.
And while your at it, ask them how much an ounce of silver or gold goes for. That's how you gauge your bubbles

Bitman_Begins
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June 17, 2011, 04:08:31 PM
 #45

Heh, if it crashes, I will be getting rich  Wink Cheesy

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iData
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June 17, 2011, 04:11:19 PM
 #46

Heh, if it crashes, I will be getting rich  Wink Cheesy
Don't count your chickens - even if you bet against the market you still have to collect and turn it into cash in hand.
dday
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June 17, 2011, 04:16:34 PM
 #47

Low: 15.0011  (lol - it's trying hard not to fall below $15)! Smiley
rangle32
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June 17, 2011, 04:23:41 PM
 #48

When will Yahoo or Google Finance track this? I would like to add it to my standard portfolio page.
perfectchoice4u
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June 17, 2011, 04:32:05 PM
 #49

lol 15.35

I've thought the resistance levels were really going to be $15 and $20

Although I do hate to say, if it goes below 15, then it probably wont stop till $13, below $13 and we would be in a new $10-$15 bracket

I don't see things going above $20 until this whole threat with the mtgox is resolved, if i was consulting I'd try to get everything priced to a conservative $15-16 exchange rate for now

pixxxel
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June 17, 2011, 04:32:25 PM
 #50

Anything with a 300,000% uptick has to stabilize. Hopefully though bitcoin doesn't fade away like so many other internet trends in the past.
bji
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June 17, 2011, 04:35:22 PM
 #51

The bitcoin market is a very strange beast in that it has tons of artificial restrictions that other markets in recent history have not had.  When the dotcom bubble occurred (and I was there working in a startup at the time and I really hated the fact that so many instant millionnaires were being created with no real value, and my prediction that it would lead to a depression in the economy for as many years as it would take to bring the market value back down to where it should have been without the bubble did come true) there were already tons and tons of financial institutions set up with decades (centuries?) of infrastructure in place to handle it.

In the bitcoin market, there are all kinds of weird restrictions like the monthy withdrawal limit of Mt. Gox, the difficulty of buying into the market (I'd probably have traded for some bitcoin on Mt. Gox already but I can't be bothered to shuttle my dollars through whatever circuitous route is required to get money into Mt. Gox), the difficulty of using the client (having to download hundreds of megabytes of data to use bitcoin at all must have some kind of dampening effect on its uptake), the lack of understanding that people have about how it works, etc.

I feel like what we're seeing is a boom/bust cycle that is being held back in strange and artificial ways.  It's like a bubble made of bubble gum being blown up in a mesh of wire.  It expands but then it gets distorted and ends up oddly shaped and strange because its natural expansion is impeded at odd angles and in odd ways.
skyhigh
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June 17, 2011, 04:38:45 PM
 #52

drknark, you are wrong in what you are saying. Your assumption that higher price will get more people to mine is somewhat true but only in the minimal, basically non important, very short term way.

I'll explain why.

Difficulty is changing so rapidly every month, that the ratio between mining vs price will only increase on the long term basis. Even when difficulty will slow down a lot, which I'm sure it will in the near future, it will still keep on going higher at an alarming pace vs bitcoin price. You have to understand that difficulty will change 10x  in the span of 60 days.

2011-04-30  difficulty was  109.670
2011-06-30  estimate      1.095.512

Fact that price also moved a lot in the same time is just a coincidence.
finnthecelt
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June 17, 2011, 04:39:02 PM
 #53

Anything with a 300,000% uptick has to stabilize. Hopefully though bitcoin doesn't fade away like so many other internet trends in the past.

Like the internet itself? Or Paypal?
dday
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June 17, 2011, 04:44:52 PM
 #54

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Like the internet itself? Or Paypal?

I think the Internet is just a fad. Smiley
pixxxel
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June 17, 2011, 05:09:46 PM
 #55

But saying Bitcoin is like the internet is just silly. About as silly as using the internet or paypal (which cant really fail due to who their backers are) as an example of "why bitcoin cant/wont crash".

I dont quite get how the argument of "its like the internet" somehow gives it this unstoppable force quality to all fanatics.

Until bitcoin gets mainstream attention - which it is far far far from having - it will be at risk of failure.
plasticity
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June 17, 2011, 05:10:37 PM
 #56

The media attention causes people to sign up and get into bitcoin, the falling prices indicate a crash.
Just wait until the local news starts doing stories on the "latest craze" of BC about 6 months from now. Then you'll really see the price go up, and mining become impossible.
Philj
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June 17, 2011, 05:32:40 PM
 #57

Looking at the market depth, there seems to be a prop at $15 that should hold the market there unless a lot of people decide to dump BTC.
SgtSpike
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June 17, 2011, 05:41:45 PM
 #58

$15 is gone, $10 here we come?
dayfall
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June 17, 2011, 05:44:56 PM
 #59

Low: 15.0011  (lol - it's trying hard not to fall below $15)! Smiley

Like a hot knife through butter.

Like King Kong off the Empire State Building.

Like the Titanic on the way to the bottom of the Atlantic.
bacsilove
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June 17, 2011, 05:47:44 PM
 #60

Low: 15.0011  (lol - it's trying hard not to fall below $15)! Smiley

Like a hot knife through butter.

Like King Kong off the Empire State Building.

Like the Titanic on the way to the bottom of the Atlantic.


lol
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