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Author Topic: Here comes the bitcoin crash!  (Read 6826 times)
compro01
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June 17, 2011, 05:57:25 PM
 #61

The media attention causes people to sign up and get into bitcoin, the falling prices indicate a crash.
Just wait until the local news starts doing stories on the "latest craze" of BC about 6 months from now. Then you'll really see the price go up, and mining become impossible.


as long as difficulty/price stays below 377,000 (currently 60249), my mining will remain profitable, unless electric rates go up.
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bacsilove
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June 17, 2011, 05:59:38 PM
 #62

This is a historical day for bitcoin, price will be $10 by the end of today.
skyhigh
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June 17, 2011, 06:07:18 PM
 #63

What I would like to add to whatever I was saying earlier in this thread is, that i have noticed too many people around here are watching the price move on tick to tick basis and they cheering its every move. I understand some of you are new to the whole trading in general, but these comments on every tiny move without any real volume behind it make you look like a fortune tellers.


Since I'm fairly new to this whole thing .. Is there a section for bitcoin daytraders ?
dday
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June 17, 2011, 07:04:21 PM
 #64

What I would like to add to whatever I was saying earlier in this thread is, that i have noticed too many people around here are watching the price move on tick to tick basis and they cheering its every move. I understand some of you are new to the whole trading in general, but these comments on every tiny move without any real volume behind it make you look like a fortune tellers.


Since I'm fairly new to this whole thing .. Is there a section for bitcoin daytraders ?

This is the section for bitcoin daytraders!  I alerted people to get out in the high 18's yesterday....and said once it hit below 15 that losses would accelerate.  It took only a few minutes to get in the 13's once it broke the $15 psychological barrier.  I think there will be some money to be made short-term if you can get in at $12 and then sell quickly on a bounce before it falls below $10.  I day-traded stocks for years so I do have experience in this field.  My worst day was when I went to the corner store to go by cigarettes and came back a few minutes later and had lost over $5,000. Smiley  -- that's when the dow was losing over 400 points in a day....the bitcoin is as about us unstable right now as stocks were during those days.

I really wish there was a way to short bitcoin so you could make some easy money right now!  I'm going to buy my first $5,000 worth once it drops to around $8 or $9.  Then if it's gets to $5 I will pick up $10,000 more.  Excited to get in! 
boris_37
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June 17, 2011, 07:12:58 PM
 #65

I  don't think it will crash, know why?

Every time the price drops tons of people will be buying forcing it to go back up.

Until someone or a lot of top people go running away(which could happen regardless) no one is going to think bitcoin is going anywhere.

As long as a supply exists demand will exist.
finnthecelt
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June 17, 2011, 07:19:09 PM
 #66

You are lucky I am here, providing professional technical analysis for the benefit of the community.

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/1860/lolwj.gif

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3157/lines.gif

If you want me to start a blog, donate.

I think you should revisit image 689 with a support line at 5 and an upward trend line from 5 to the 10 support level. Also a possibility.

That would tighten that pennant formation and start the coiling process earlier. If that's the case we should see less volatility for awhile and a either a price explosion or a fallout to <$1.00 potential. Not likely in my opinion.
finnthecelt
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June 17, 2011, 07:32:01 PM
 #67

I  don't think it will crash, know why?

Every time the price drops tons of people will be buying forcing it to go back up.

Until someone or a lot of top people go running away(which could happen regardless) no one is going to think bitcoin is going anywhere.

As long as a supply exists demand will exist.

You mean as long as demand exists supply will exist?
gdman361
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June 17, 2011, 07:49:08 PM
 #68

I  don't think it will crash, know why?

Every time the price drops tons of people will be buying forcing it to go back up.

Until someone or a lot of top people go running away(which could happen regardless) no one is going to think bitcoin is going anywhere.

As long as a supply exists demand will exist.

You mean as long as demand exists supply will exist?

yea when the demand is built on mining, the demand can disappear overnight.  i think its a supply issue, the network has been minting coins too fast to the supply is overloading the market, when u see hash rate fall back to pre-may21st area thats the sign the most the weak hands will be out of the market.  the quick buck guys will come and go, just like any major bull market.  I'm thinking bitcoin price could be under pressure into september, much like the global economy will be.
finnthecelt
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June 17, 2011, 09:11:39 PM
 #69

I  don't think it will crash, know why?

Every time the price drops tons of people will be buying forcing it to go back up.

Until someone or a lot of top people go running away(which could happen regardless) no one is going to think bitcoin is going anywhere.

As long as a supply exists demand will exist.

You mean as long as demand exists supply will exist?

yea when the demand is built on mining, the demand can disappear overnight.  i think its a supply issue, the network has been minting coins too fast to the supply is overloading the market, when u see hash rate fall back to pre-may21st area thats the sign the most the weak hands will be out of the market.  the quick buck guys will come and go, just like any major bull market.  I'm thinking bitcoin price could be under pressure into september, much like the global economy will be.

Demand is not built on mining. Demand is a personal issue with whoever demands it. There is also no issue with supply. The main issue is the public learning about BTC in waves and the resultant action from the coverage. When the blitz dies down so does demand.

It will probably be like this for some time I'd imagine. Years.
defacen
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June 17, 2011, 09:58:57 PM
 #70

Something else Warren Buffet said: "Be greedy while others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy."

Take that to mean what you will. Smiley

That's perfect!
finnthecelt
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June 18, 2011, 04:44:03 AM
 #71

Something else Warren Buffet said: "Be greedy while others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy."

Take that to mean what you will. Smiley

That's perfect!

Warren Buffet's an ass.

I still want to see updated charts. Where's bitter?
penta
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June 18, 2011, 05:35:09 AM
 #72

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvzlztgSza1gEMAzm1g10zm2g25zi1gEMV
finnthecelt
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June 18, 2011, 05:38:12 AM
 #73


Nooooo. I want to see the one below redrawn. $5 support and new trend line...

Delicious
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June 18, 2011, 05:58:14 AM
 #74

I think BTC price explosion is heavily influenced by media coverage of illicit usages.  When sites that promote such use go down, so does interest and price.  Major price flux last week when SR went down, and now steady decline as SR remains unavailable once again.

191p73wvR2tqG8ebxgo2rFYJHxGhABLWip
enmaku
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June 18, 2011, 06:05:43 AM
 #75

Again with the chart showing the linear progression of the baselines and the supposed crash to ridiculous lows. Has it not occurred to anyone that this chart is drawn on a logarithmic scale and represents a fairly short section of an exponential market? Any short segment of an exponentially increasing graph can be made to look linear on the right log scale - no one has discovered the "secret" of the market, just manipulated data until they saw a pattern that may or may not actually be there.

More realistically, price fluctuations in this market occur around a lognormal distribution with greater tendency to increase than decrease, which is what you would expect from a commodity with a user-base increasing faster than the available quantity of the commodity (i.e. its scarcity per capita is increasing).

finnthecelt
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June 18, 2011, 02:46:32 PM
 #76

Again with the chart showing the linear progression of the baselines and the supposed crash to ridiculous lows. Has it not occurred to anyone that this chart is drawn on a logarithmic scale and represents a fairly short section of an exponential market? Any short segment of an exponentially increasing graph can be made to look linear on the right log scale - no one has discovered the "secret" of the market, just manipulated data until they saw a pattern that may or may not actually be there.

More realistically, price fluctuations in this market occur around a lognormal distribution with greater tendency to increase than decrease, which is what you would expect from a commodity with a user-base increasing faster than the available quantity of the commodity (i.e. its scarcity per capita is increasing).

I agree with you and this is what I see in the same chart. And of course it can be refined I did it quickly..

What we're seeing is a consolidation that will happen very quickly in this coiling pennant formation. The longterm trend is upwards so the bias is for the coil to break out to the upside. But who knows right?




dday
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June 21, 2011, 03:44:03 PM
 #77

I tried to warn you...
finnthecelt
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June 21, 2011, 05:18:29 PM
 #78

I tried to warn you...

Oh fuck off! You're actually going to take credit for an event that no one could have predicted. Go bugger a young boy!!!


"I told you so, I told you so!! In a really whiny little pathetic voice!!!!
dday
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June 21, 2011, 05:28:00 PM
 #79

I tried to warn you...

Oh fuck off! You're actually going to take credit for an event that no one could have predicted. Go bugger a young boy!!!


"I told you so, I told you so!! In a really whiny little pathetic voice!!!!

yes nobody could predict that a low-budget site like Mt Gox could be hacked! lol  -- Looks like somebody invested all of their allowance in bitcoins! haha  -- Seems like now is a great time to invest in bitcoin!  Good luck savvy investors!
finnthecelt
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June 21, 2011, 05:52:49 PM
 #80

I tried to warn you...

Oh fuck off! You're actually going to take credit for an event that no one could have predicted. Go bugger a young boy!!!


"I told you so, I told you so!! In a really whiny little pathetic voice!!!!

yes nobody could predict that a low-budget site like Mt Gox could be hacked! lol  -- Looks like somebody invested all of their allowance in bitcoins! haha  -- Seems like now is a great time to invest in bitcoin!  Good luck savvy investors!

Note to self. Ignore this board from here on out.
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