Bitcoin Forum
October 17, 2018, 10:59:57 AM *
News: Make sure you are not using versions of Bitcoin Core other than 0.17.0 [Torrent], 0.16.3, 0.15.2, or 0.14.3. More info.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin's Dystopian Future  (Read 27728 times)
lili song
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 980
Merit: 509



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 06:20:00 PM
 #221

The deflationary arguments are not warranted imo. I would actually spend more. knowing that I can buy more tomorrow without need to have as much in nominal terms.
We are so brainwashed into believing that a deflationary system cant work because we have been drilled with/by the current interests. The current system is on the brink of collapse. Our govts ARE at the level of Zimbabwe inflation but it's not in the units that you can hold in your hand.... Bailouts,  QE and the fact that govts are pretty much doing this in parity makes it a little less visible....
Deflation has been used as a scapegoat at every opportunity of the current failures. The inflationary system is only in place because it is necessitated by an independent central banking system as a business model. The inflationary systems have only been in place since the plans to create private central banks were thought up.
1539773997
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1539773997

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1539773997
Reply with quote  #2

1539773997
Report to moderator
1539773997
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1539773997

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1539773997
Reply with quote  #2

1539773997
Report to moderator
1539773997
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1539773997

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1539773997
Reply with quote  #2

1539773997
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
HelenS
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 56
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 06:55:19 PM
 #222

I believe in the UTOPIAN future. There is nothing perfect in this world, but BTC is  Grin
bitvelk
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 280
Merit: 10


View Profile
June 14, 2018, 08:26:17 PM
 #223

This is just one of the scenarios, unfortunately, or fortunately, no one will say exactly how the fate of the cryptocurrency will be. I prefer to be optimistic.

  |||  EverLife.AI  ||| 
  |||  Preserve your Legacy on the BlockChain  ||| 
  |||  Your Immutable AI Avatar on the Blockchain that preserves your legacy  ||| 

●  Facebook  ●  Twitter ●  Telegram  ●  ANN  ●
Rakabel619
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 322
Merit: 100



View Profile
June 14, 2018, 08:38:07 PM
 #224

hello, in my opinion, the whole crypto market will be in regression all prices will be shrinking, we will all remember the values of January 2018, it will remain a difficult peak.

bishopcrypto
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 98
Merit: 1


View Profile
June 15, 2018, 03:32:12 PM
 #225

Weird, many of the things in the OP can be blamed on many things not named bitcoin. Grandma's retirement, for example, was already in the toilet pre-crypto. She's been losing her ass for many years because of government policy and endless money printing. Just like all of us. You don't have to be a hardcore libertarian to see the deck has been stacked against us for generations. Will bitcoin exacerbate the problems? Perhaps. Or maybe bitcoin provides a better option. Especially if grandma's retirement fund is crypto friendly, and not just treasuries.

☀️☀️Secret God☀️☀️ Decentralized Private Society ☠ secretgod.io
yaghoniyu
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 57
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 18, 2018, 02:17:46 PM
 #226

I have seen the future of Bitcoin, and it is bleak.

The Promise of Bitcoin

If you were to peak into my bedroom at night (please don’t), there’s a good chance you would see my wife sleeping soundly while I stare at the ceiling, running thought experiments about where Bitcoin is going. Like many other people, I have come to the conclusion that distributed currencies like Bitcoin are going to eventually be recognized as the most important technological innovation of the decade, if not the century. It seems clear to me that the rise of distributed currencies presents the biggest (and riskiest) investment opportunity I am likely to see in my lifetime; perhaps in a thousand lifetimes. It is critically important to understand where Bitcoin is going, and I am determined to do so.

My hundreds of hours of thought experiments have been productive. I published a whitepaper about the future of Bitcoin, and because of that paper I’ll have the great privilege of sitting on the “Bitcoin in the Future” panel at the 2013 Bitcoin Conference in San Jose. Through these years of deliberation I have satisfied myself that the answer to the “Trillion Dollar Question” of whether any form of distributed currency can ever achieve a stable price, is “yes”. (There are three ways this will happen, as I have written elsewhere).

I have been predicting for years that the world’s first trillionaire by USD valuation will be an early investor in distributed currency — quite possibly Satoshi Nakamoto, whoever he/she/it/they may be. I own a few bitcoins, and I intend to keep them until I find a more attractive investment (that is, I want to invest in whatever replaces bitcoin or builds on top of it).

To many people, this sounds like an implausibly rosy future, and for early adopters that is true — it feels like winning the lottery every day. However, for most other people, the ascendancy of distributed currency systems will feel like a disaster. If you are involved in Bitcoin now, you should prepare to be almost universally hated someday.

In this article, we will examine a few simple thought experiments to show how the rise of distributed currencies such as bitcoin could create massive social upheaval due to governments’ rapidly degrading capability to fulfill their core functions of taxation and regulation of commerce. We’ll see how the end result could be extremely painful for common citizens due to previously unimaginable wealth disparities, hyperinflation of previously stable government-backed fiat currencies, and a greatly empowered criminal class.

The Bleak Future of Fiat Currencies

Anarchists and hardcore libertarians love Bitcoin, but most people outside those circles are not in favor of completely doing away with their government. If you aren’t part of a fringe political movement, chances are there is something the government does that you like, whether it’s handing out entitlement money, killing enemies, putting people in prison, building dams and roads, funding research, or any number of other things. The government can do these things because the government can collect taxes, which in turn they can do because the flows of money are highly regulated and tracked at every level. Whether you are collecting a paycheck, buying furniture, cashing out investments, or simply dying and leaving an inheritance, the government knows about it and takes a cut.

For our first thought experiment, let’s imagine a world where distributed currencies like bitcoin have become wildly successful due to technological advances which make them easy to use and completely stable. In this world government-issued money is as good as dead. It may take a few years for everyone to realize it, but there will come a point when the ever-increasing outflows of money from fiat money into untaxable, unseizable decentralized currency will reach a tipping point, and we’ll have a financial panic like the world has never seen. Frightened lawmakers and banks will try to stop people from cashing out, but that will just increase the panic. Those who don’t get out before the door closes will be in dire straits indeed. This is the ultimate bank run — the run on the world’s central banks, and who could possibly step in and restore order?

When people think of hyperinflation, they usually envision a Zimbabwean printing press running around the clock in the dark corner of a mud hut, putting ever more zeroes on cheap paper. Has it ever occurred to you that hyperinflation can happen while the printing presses are off? The value of the money in your pocket is not ultimately guaranteed by your government, but by simple supply and demand. The government controls the supply, and we control the demand. If demand falls precipitously, we have hyperinflation without ever needing to print another dollar or euro. If people start fleeing government currencies en masse, hyperinflation is the inevitable result.

The good news is that you don’t need to worry about current government debt in this scenario. If government currencies lose their value rapidly, debts which previously seemed overwhelming suddenly become much more manageable. Perhaps your debt-laden government will someday completely pay off it’s national debt by simply selling a few gold bars and a couple national parks.

The Bleak Future of Retirement

For our next thought experiment, let’s consider what will happen to Grandma. For her whole life, she has carefully saved her money, and now she is living in reasonable comfort. She gets money and health care from the government, and she has her own savings to fall back on. Grandma has done everything right, including taking her savings out of the stock market; most of her savings are now invested in the safest asset known to man: U.S. Treasury Bonds.

Rather suddenly, things start to go wrong. At the same time all her expenses start skyrocketing, the government has a liquidity crisis; they are having trouble collecting taxes and can no longer pay for her health care. Her savings are still “safe” in the sense that she will get U.S. Dollars out of them, but that is little comfort when those dollars which should have lasted years can barely pay her weekly grocery bill.

Grandma’s retirement has been sabotaged by the rise of a new kind of money that she can’t even begin to understand. All she knows is that she did everything right, and now she has nothing.

The Bleak Future Wealth Disparities

All the world’s wealth has essentially been stolen, but by whom? By you, dear reader.

We’ll be very lucky if we aren’t all rounded up and summarily executed. Thankfully, you’ll be able to use some of that money to purchase protection, but I’m not at all convinced that it will be enough. A wrathful government backed by an enraged population is a fearful enemy. Satoshi foresaw this long ago, and I doubt he/she/it/they will ever voluntarily come into the light.

If there are enough of us, and we are very careful and charming, we may be physically safe. However, the massive displacement of wealth will still have some awful consequences. People argue all the time about the societal benefits and drawbacks of wealth disparities, and the rise of distributed currencies will create disparities that previously did not seem possible. It seems clear that there will be a lot of jobs created by the new wealthy, but whether the average person is better off or not, one thing is sure to rise: resentment. What right do we have to take all the wealth of the world and put it in our pockets? Sure, a nifty new idea should pay off for early visionaries, but nobody ever expected a new idea to suck all the wealth out of the world like a financial black hole!

The Bleak Future of Law Enforcement

This is where things get really bleak. Currently distributed currencies facilitate money laundering, black market commerce (the Silk Road), and insider trading (TorBroker). These applications in their current form are just a snowflake on the tip of the iceberg. Not only will they get MUCH bigger, but we will see applications which are much less savory. Historically, the “Dark Net” accessible by Tor and private networks has been nothing more than a hidey-hole for illegal files and a hangout for paranoid schizophrenics, but it is quickly becoming the platform of choice for large-scale illegal commerce.

For this thought experiment, we will imagine that your child has been kidnapped and put up for sale on “TorSlaver”. Their business plan is to kidnap children and sell them to the highest bidder, whether parent or pedophile. The winning bidder is sent the location of the child, probably bound and gagged and dumped somewhere. As long as they don’t get caught doing the kidnapping, the kidnappers can do this again and again with complete impunity. Once someone proves it can be done, copycats will come out of the woodwork, and it won’t matter if the first mover gets caught.

As a parent of three small children, I cannot describe to you how awful this makes me feel. I have always been a very reluctant bitcoin investor, for this very reason. I don’t invest in bitcoin because I think it will bring about a happy utopian world. Quite the opposite. I invest in bitcoin because the rise of distributed currency is inevitable, and owning some bitcoins seems to be the best way to prepare for the chaos ahead. And just maybe, if I position myself correctly, I can make things a little less awful.

The Government Strikes Back

Does anyone really expect the government to sit back quietly and watch while their currency is debased, terrorism is funded, and children are kidnapped? The only question is when and how they will strike back against these forces. While the government does have a lot of options, ultimately those options only slow things down. At some point, we collectively with our governments face a difficult choice between trying to survive this deadly storm or attempting to destroy all decentralized computer networks (including the internet). The former seems unthinkable, the latter, impossible.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this chaos gives rise to a strong, centralized, one-world government which gets its revenues by tightly reigning in freedom of commerce in order to collect taxes. For instance, I will not be surprised to see a requirement someday that every person buying or selling have an implant which tightly binds their identity to the sale. Perhaps the implant will even be located on the back of the right hand or the forehead! This may seem repugnant to you now, but wait until you have lived in the storm for a while before you call it impossible. The natural reaction to the deadly chaos of decentralized currency is for the populace to embrace increasingly centralized controls on commerce. The battle lines are only just starting to be drawn, and your guess is as good as mine for how it will play out.

What Should We Do?

We need people thinking about this. I’ll admit that many of the things I wrote about may not happen at all, or may happen very differently than I imagine. However, there are lots of people touting the fantastic benefits that bitcoin and its children can give us, and I don’t see anybody talking about how bad things could potentially get.

We need solutions. When the government finally starts taking decentralized currency seriously, it will probably be doing so in a state of panic. We need to be advising governments now about how they can survive the storm and protect their populace. We need to think of ways the government can pay for its most critical operations, and what legislation makes sense to mitigate these new risks while preserving as much freedom as we can.

The Lifeboat Foundation is attempting to provide this thinking, advice, and solutions. They are already getting ready for a new advisory board, culled from computer scientists, economists, and bitcoin experts. If you make a fortune from your investments in decentralized currency, I urge you to consider how you can help all the people harmed by these rapid changes. Many bitcoin enthusiasts seem to think they will get to retire on a private island with a harem and a stable of Italian sports cars. This is wrong. Bitcoin investors need to someday become bitcoin philanthropists, and our giving needs to be targeted at helping all the people we have harmed. The Lifeboat Foundation is one option, but I’m sure there will be others.

I first published this article on the blog of the Lifeboat Foundation: http://lifeboat.com/blog/2013/04/bitcoins-dystopian-future
Reddit version is here: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1cos8x/bitcoins_dystopian_future/

tl;dr: Wildly successful distributed currencies could hurt a lot of people.


I think, Most of these scenarios only make sense if the national currency really disappears. Although many on this board predict this result. Conversely, the more likely outcome is Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will exist alongside the national currency in stable equilibrium, each used in a context where it works better than any other alternative. That's in my opinion.
Tuyoqhh
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 51
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 18, 2018, 02:41:26 PM
 #227

I think We will never solve the problems of money with money, even if it is a better money. Investigate a resource based economy.
Kytanylu
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 76
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 19, 2018, 04:09:04 AM
 #228

Using the after effects of a massive credit bubble to argue that deflation is harmful is as rational as using the existence of hangovers to argue that one should never stop drinking. Wink
phelanceter
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 70
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 19, 2018, 09:11:48 AM
 #229

Bitcoin is not really economically different from gold. Face it, when was the last time ordinary people used gold or silver coins in their hands for daily transactions?  Well, Bitcoin is going to eventually occupy the same place that gold and silver do in our current economy; a place for investment capital to flee to, as a last-resort inflation hedge when the productive economy is administered by miss Helena Handbasket.  It will not likely be used by ordinary people.
anhtuan845
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 28, 2018, 07:58:08 AM
 #230


There are two types of investors. One type is the optimistic one and the other type is the pessimistic one. I personally consider myself within the first Category and I am sure bitcoin will have serious higher value in future. The price we are seeing now is just the tip of the iceberg and I will be happy to buy more at the current price.  Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue

But not many people understands that every dip provides us an opportunity. Grin Grin Grin Grin Those who understand, will stay on the top within few years from now, rest will continue crying foul.
leoasdnedc
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 59
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 28, 2018, 09:20:39 AM
 #231

Like many technologies, Bitcoin can and will be used for good and bad. When fire was "discovered" it was used to cook and to burn down villages. That is lunacy to the extreme thus the rest of the dystopia is not based on any or even a small part of practical real reality.
Saraki Goo
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 42
Merit: 0


View Profile
June 28, 2018, 03:44:18 PM
 #232

 You absolutely need a centralized currency to move huge amounts of wealth from citizens and future citizens to the state in order to build an empire, otherwise no tax-payer would ever spring for such a goal.
jdamayo28
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 84
Merit: 0


View Profile
July 06, 2018, 03:49:17 AM
 #233

You absolutely need a centralized currency to move huge amounts of wealth from citizens and future citizens to the state in order to build an empire, otherwise no tax-payer would ever spring for such a goal.

All of crypto currency is unstable and unpredictable. Now, talking with BTC, I believe BTC got the brightest future ahead among all other cryptocurrencies, simply because of its performance showed the last few years that excite and entertain a lot of traders and investors.Some are afraid of holding BTC, because its been struggling this past few months and they think BTC will have an undesirable future. But for the bitcoin holders and traders, we believe to that BTC will have a great future ahead.
Wekkel
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002
Merit: 1054


yes


View Profile
July 06, 2018, 06:11:43 AM
 #234

In fact, all currency is unstable. But to a varying decree. Once crypto has grown bigger than its current 1993-Internet-like state, a form of price stability can be expected that matches bigger fiat currencies. At much higher prices of course.

In fact, Bitcoin volatility right now can be regarded as less than some fiat currency brothers. Of course, these fiat brothers are the worst in town at the moment but it proofs that fiat currencies are not necessarily stable either. When looking at day to day fluctuations, Bitcoin often has more stable days than major currencies. It is all about scale.

I think Bitcoin has a big chance of becoming the premier ‘numeraire’: http://www.gata.org/node/8303

Who had thought that a few lines of code would compete with (the currencies of) the world’s empires?

I am enjoying every minute of the ride  Grin

           ▀██▄ ▄██▀
            ▐█████▌
           ▄███▀███▄
         ▄████▄  ▀███▄
       ▄███▀ ▀██▄  ▀███▄
     ▄███▀  ▄█████▄  ▀███▄
   ▄███▀  ▄███▀ ▀███▄  ▀███▄
  ███▀  ▄████▌   ▐████▄  ▀███
 ███   ██▀  ██▄ ▄██  ▀██   ███
███   ███  ███   ███  ███   ███
███   ███   ███████   ███   ███
 ███   ███▄▄       ▄▄███   ███
  ███▄   ▀▀█████████▀▀   ▄███
   ▀████▄▄           ▄▄████▀
      ▀▀███████████████▀▀
DeepOnion
.Anonymous and Untraceable.
ANN  Whitepaper  Facebook  Twitter  Telegram  Discord 





      ▄▄██████████▄▄
    ▄███▀▀      ▀▀█▀   ▄▄
   ███▀              ▄███
  ███              ▄███▀   ▄▄
 ███▌  ▄▄▄▄      ▄███▀   ▄███
▐███  ██████   ▄███▀   ▄███▀
███▌ ███  ███▄███▀   ▄███▀
███▌ ███   ████▀   ▄███▀
███▌  ███   █▀   ▄███▀  ███
▐███   ███     ▄███▀   ███
 ███▌   ███  ▄███▀     ███
  ███    ██████▀      ███
   ███▄             ▄███
    ▀███▄▄       ▄▄███▀
      ▀▀███████████▀▀
.
Dico88
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 406
Merit: 100



View Profile
July 30, 2018, 09:21:44 PM
 #235

Bitcoin as a capital flight to a level never before seen in history. The people to choose with their feet is much easier than before stepping. People will choose to live in places where security against physical and economic violence is the best. We must achieve a higher quality governance because places with very bad governance experience massive capital flight to make them poor and not very effective. This is a gift that is so little negative value. Cool
kimcuchospital
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 17
Merit: 0


View Profile
September 23, 2018, 10:40:55 AM
 #236

Deflation arguments are not guaranteed. Know that I can buy more tomorrow without having to have many nominal terms. The current system is on the brink of collapse. Bailouts, QEs and the fact that govts are pretty much doing this in parity make it a little less visible ... The inflation system is only applied because the central bank system is an independent one. business model needed.
BigSamson5
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 18
Merit: 0


View Profile
September 24, 2018, 09:10:49 AM
 #237

We would love to brainwash believe that a deflation system can not work because we have been drilled with / by present benefits. Our Govts are in the level of Zimbabwe inflation but it's not in the units that you can hold in your hand .... Inflation has been used as a scapegoat at every opportunity of the looms. current failure. Inflation systems are only set up because the plan to create private central banks is devised. For example, her retirement is available in prefabricated homes. Like all of us. Maybe. Especially if her retirement fund is friendly, and not just treasury.
Vaflia
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 252
Merit: 101



View Profile
September 24, 2018, 09:15:38 AM
 #238

Everything has its positive and negative sides, but I think that bitcoin is still more good than bad.

tanxpresisit514
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 20
Merit: 0


View Profile
September 25, 2018, 02:40:29 AM
 #239

This is just one of the scenarios, unfortunately, or fortunately, no one will say exactly how the fate of the cryptocurrency will be. I prefer to be optimistic.
I believe that bitcoin will become a digital currency that is very influential in the future, because it has several advantages that fiat money does not have. Transactions with bitcoin eliminate regulations that have made transactions take a long time, eliminate the role of banks that make expensive transactions, and monitoring by the government that always suspects money owners when making transactions. All that is removed by bitcoin.
goldSkylark
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 84
Merit: 1


View Profile
September 27, 2018, 02:41:17 AM
 #240

Oh.. why the negative and pessimistic view about bitcoin? For sure it’s not perfect, but the benefits sure outweigh any downsides. Maybe you’re just afraid of change? Try to keep an open mind about it. There are lots of benefits to using a cryptocurrency in the future. This article might be helpful:
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/2018-cryptocurrency-optimism-outlook-8-future-potential-benefits-list/
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!