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Author Topic: Pessimist's Exponent  (Read 2519 times)
Phil_S
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March 02, 2017, 07:36:18 PM
 #1

Exponential growth based on low prices, ignoring highs.

For data, I used BTC-e prices from bitcoinity. Two datapoints are enough to define an exponent, so I choose two dates during relatively low/quiet times:

2015 oct 1, $235

2016 oct 1, $608

And here's the result:



So a pessimist (who believes in exponential growth Cheesy ) should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018.

Enjoy!
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Phil_S
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March 03, 2017, 12:01:30 PM
 #2

Real price as a percentage of our low estimate.

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March 03, 2017, 12:14:05 PM
 #3

Did you forgot about 2013 and 2014?
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists. 

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Phil_S
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March 03, 2017, 12:31:29 PM
 #4

Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.
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March 03, 2017, 02:03:00 PM
 #5

Did you forgot about 2013 and 2014?
The bticoin price was $1216 back in November 2013 and after the Gox hack it went back to $90.
Bitcoin is doing pretty well for the last 2 years,but we have to be ready for disasters.
By the way i think that the optimists beleive in exponential growth,not pesimists. 

2013 was an outlier and so was the crash in 2014. We didn't reach $10K after reaching $1200 in 2013.
There was a correction. Now the growth is more gradual. If adoption kicks off, the growth can be exponential in the future.  Smiley

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March 03, 2017, 02:15:43 PM
 #6

It's easy to say it should be 2k based on the past but the problem is there's no telling how quickly or slowly it will rise with different economic or political turmoil.

What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!
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March 03, 2017, 04:07:36 PM
 #7

It's easy to say it should be 2k based on the past but the problem is there's no telling how quickly or slowly it will rise with different economic or political turmoil.

What if bitcoins are illegal in China and the US in 2018? The price would tank!

US yes. China no. China has already wiped itself out market wise. If the mining goes then that's a positive development for Bitcoin''s future.

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March 03, 2017, 06:10:08 PM
 #8

Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.

Bitcoin will grow exponentially, the marketcap is still tiny compared to any serious big company, so we are going to experience massive price increases, but the volatility of the 2013 is over, but that does not mean a pump to $5,000 with a correction of $3,000 isn't possible, but as you can see in terms of % is not as brutal of a correction as $1163 to $100.
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March 23, 2017, 06:17:51 AM
 #9

Update. We're closer to the red line, but still above it.



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March 23, 2017, 06:42:30 AM
 #10

Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.

Bitcoin will grow exponentially, the marketcap is still tiny compared to any serious big company, so we are going to experience massive price increases, but the volatility of the 2013 is over, but that does not mean a pump to $5,000 with a correction of $3,000 isn't possible, but as you can see in terms of % is not as brutal of a correction as $1163 to $100.
That growth will still depend on a lot of things. Bitcoin, having only a market cap of about $17B as of the moment, is relatively small and has shown its potential to reach new highs every so often although a couple of weeks ago, we were sitting at the $20B market cap. All these FUD at the moment might soon be forgotten once we see the price calm down and ascend to your targets faster than expected.
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March 23, 2017, 06:45:27 AM
 #11

A slow steady growth based on adoption would be much better than massive pumps by few traders. Right now it would be hard to predict the price of bitcoin with great accuracy and I don't think any nation will ban bitcoin. However, they will look to impose restrictions, tax and other fees on bitcoin.


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March 23, 2017, 07:13:47 AM
 #12

let me quote you so it shows up here too.
Update. We're closer to the red line, but still above it.





and although i don't really like speculation like this, specially when it is similar to extrapolating data from past to get the future but this particular one (which has also been discussed before) seems to be working for bitcoin. the price is rising on this line.

in any case this is a long term speculation and because of that i can agree with it. Smiley

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March 23, 2017, 08:30:58 AM
 #13

There are other ways to interpret this - if it breaks the support line - than we'll have a big correction. On a log chart this is a straight line - so many chartist will treat it as a trend line and support.

The history of other exponential fragments supports this. It is pretty silly to reject most of bitcoin history as 'outliers' - outliers are the exceptions, they cannot be the biggest part of the data.
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March 23, 2017, 10:26:14 AM
 #14

There are other ways to interpret this - if it breaks the support line - than we'll have a big correction. On a log chart this is a straight line - so many chartist will treat it as a trend line and support.

The history of other exponential fragments supports this. It is pretty silly to reject most of bitcoin history as 'outliers' - outliers are the exceptions, they cannot be the biggest part of the data.

this is exactly what is wrong with this kind of analysis and why i never liked it and most people call it psedu science anyways Cheesy

everyone interprets them differently and when they come true everyone says it was a perfect speculation and when they don't come true everyone tries to come up with excuses and additional scenarios to make them work and again when those additional scenarios don't work they come up with more and change the lines again.

it is a broken chain based on a false base.

market doesn't move based on lines on a chart so that if one of them was broken, it goes further down just because an imaginary line was broken.

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March 25, 2017, 05:31:10 AM
 #15

And now we are below that line.
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March 25, 2017, 05:34:25 AM
 #16

The drop continues Cry

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March 25, 2017, 06:13:57 AM
 #17

The drop continues Cry
The drop really continues right now and I hope that it would stop at some point later on this week since if it don't I think were gonna see btc on a low price again but not that low when compared to the past low prices that we have seen so far but it can be considered low considering that the price went up to 1200$+. I really do hope that it stops and rises again.
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April 28, 2017, 08:45:47 PM
 #18

Update. Everything's fine so far.



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April 28, 2017, 08:51:41 PM
 #19

Update. Everything's fine so far.





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April 28, 2017, 08:53:12 PM
 #20

Update. Everything's fine so far.




Great.  All the little drops and rises have "only" been within a couple of hundred dollars recently.  It looks like the price will be much closer to immune to FUD once the price goes any higher than it is now and hopefully there will be some more liquidity on exchanges when there's proper regulation - then we'll see the steady, compounded rise to the moon.

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