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Author Topic: Price will not crash if the ETF is rejected  (Read 2428 times)
lordquanta
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March 06, 2017, 11:31:45 AM
 #21

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
Good, that you also think price is not rising due to ETF. Now that you mention that bitcoin will not fall after ETF rejection, could you share you thoughts on why bitcoin price is increasing in first place? There must be other reasons or justification for price rise. Is it another pump and dump? 
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March 06, 2017, 11:41:42 AM
 #22

Yes it is my friend. You can see it because bitcoin is in overbought area. Dont let them fool you. Dont let the dump take you.
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March 06, 2017, 11:42:19 AM
 #23

I think that you are absolutely right about it,
And also I really do hope that it is true I bitcoin price went this far without even the ETF accepting it,
So why will it effect the bitcoin's price I mean why would it crash if they reject it.
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March 06, 2017, 04:55:16 PM
 #24

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.

2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

That obviously doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dead. Trend reversals happen and will happen again. Best we can expect is that the reversal this time is less harsh and maybe could pressure the devs to accelerate a scalability solution.

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March 06, 2017, 05:01:57 PM
 #25

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.



Gold is not useful to be sent around quickly and cheaply, this does not mean it isn't a good safe haven, and that is why people are buying bitcoin, not to buy coffee but to improve their wealth and keep it outside the system.


2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

Bitcoin continues to be a better gold no matter what. The fact that bitcoin is constantly getting older, it makes it increasinly more valuable because it keeps proving it can survive for a long time, not to mention the obvious fact that less and less coins will be available so FOMO is a matter of time that it would kick in.

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

Look what? just short lived pump and dumps. Bitcoin 80%+ marketcap supremacy over all altcoins is as solid at ever.

About the instamined thing, satoshi didn't change total coin supply:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=995710.0
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March 06, 2017, 05:05:30 PM
 #26

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.

2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

That obviously doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dead. Trend reversals happen and will happen again. Best we can expect is that the reversal this time is less harsh and maybe could pressure the devs to accelerate a scalability solution.

but what make you think that current value represent mass adoption? nothing make this true, in fact with the true adoption bitcoin would be at $50k, not at $700, $700 is a joke man, it's not a value for mass adoption, and we don't need to fix that issue to have bitcoin holding at $1000, but i agree that it must be fixed for the future to make bitcoin stronger

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March 06, 2017, 05:08:08 PM
 #27

The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.

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March 06, 2017, 05:39:02 PM
 #28

The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.

C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.

 
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March 06, 2017, 06:56:31 PM
 #29

Gold is not useful to be sent around quickly and cheaply, this does not mean it isn't a good safe haven, and that is why people are buying bitcoin, not to buy coffee but to improve their wealth and keep it outside the system.

That's exactly the problem. If these people are new to trading and high-risk assets, they are vulnerable to panic reactions when a short seller tries to lower the price. (Even worse if they have learned some basic TA and the short-seller is "attacking" just at a relevant price mark)

Gold has "intrinsic value" because it's used in the industry. Bitcoin's intrinsic value is tied to the network effect, mainly because it's "useful" to move money around and sell and buy things. Unfortunately just this "usefulness" is getting actually hit because of the scalability problem (higher transaction fees, bottlenecks ...).

Quote
The fact that bitcoin is constantly getting older, it makes it increasinly more valuable because it keeps proving it can survive for a long time, not to mention the obvious fact that less and less coins will be available so FOMO is a matter of time that it would kick in.

Here I partly agree - these affirmations of bears that "Bitcoin will be dead" in short time are not more credible after it survived even the MtGox disaster. But I think if the ETF is rejected, a FOMO rally would be delayed at least some months - I would expect it end-2017/beginning of 2018, maybe earlier if things are moving forward regarding scalability.

Look what? just short lived pump and dumps. Bitcoin 80%+ marketcap supremacy over all altcoins is as solid at ever.

I would not be too sure of this to be an "eternal protection of Bitcoin's leadership". In the last days, there was a lot of movement in the altcoin market. We never had 7 coins with more of 100 million market cap before. I agree that Dash may be a P'n'D but the Monero and ETH rallies, for example, look much more sustainable. And more important: This time the altcoin supporters have a "valid reason" for their grandezza dreams: their transactions are much cheaper and faster than Bitcoin's.

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March 06, 2017, 07:23:32 PM
 #30

I think it's very likely that we'll crash if the ETF is rejected. My guess based on nothing other than a personal opinion is around a 200 USD dump.

Hopefully it is approved though.

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March 06, 2017, 07:26:33 PM
 #31


That's exactly the problem. If these people are new to trading and high-risk assets, they are vulnerable to panic reactions when a short seller tries to lower the price. (Even worse if they have learned some basic TA and the short-seller is "attacking" just at a relevant price mark)

Gold has "intrinsic value" because it's used in the industry. Bitcoin's intrinsic value is tied to the network effect, mainly because it's "useful" to move money around and sell and buy things. Unfortunately just this "usefulness" is getting actually hit because of the scalability problem (higher transaction fees, bottlenecks ...).

Gold has no intrinsic value. Nobody buys it because it's used in some niche cases. If that was the case, the marketcap would be tiny compared to the current marketcap, which is based on:

1) Network effect
2) Ability to hold money outside of the system
3) Speculation

Just like bitcoin. But bitcoin is even better since it has unique features, like moving money from A to B in ways that are impossible in any other way, that is it intrinsic feature dare I say.

About noobs panic selling or panic buying, that also happens with gold, but since the marketcap is huge, the effect is not that noticeable. Bitcoin will keep growing in marketcap, which means those same panic sells/buys will be less noticeable overtime.

Here I partly agree - these affirmations of bears that "Bitcoin will be dead" in short time are not more credible after it survived even the MtGox disaster. But I think if the ETF is rejected, a FOMO rally would be delayed at least some months - I would expect it end-2017/beginning of 2018, maybe earlier if things are moving forward regarding scalability.

Bitcoin is undervalued as it is today, so it will keep growing even if no major scaling updates are rolled out, with that im not saying shouldn't and will not come, they will sooner or later (not in BUcoin form tho)

I would not be too sure of this to be an "eternal protection of Bitcoin's leadership". In the last days, there was a lot of movement in the altcoin market. We never had 7 coins with more of 100 million market cap before. I agree that Dash may be a P'n'D but the Monero and ETH rallies, for example, look much more sustainable. And more important: This time the altcoin supporters have a "valid reason" for their grandezza dreams: their transactions are much cheaper and faster than Bitcoin's.

Those coins are so fast because nobody uses them. If they had the same amount of transaction volume as bitcoin then guess what would happen.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

You can see here, BTC dominance has been about 85% during the DASH pump, so BTC didn't even flinch. Since the altcoin hype started back in 2013, as naturally predicted, it went from 100 to 80% ish on average and is being pretty stable there. The lower peaks are due ridiculous hype like the ETH pump and dump.
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March 06, 2017, 08:10:52 PM
Last edit: March 06, 2017, 08:42:51 PM by d5000
 #32

Gold has no intrinsic value. Nobody buys it because it's used in some niche cases. If that was the case, the marketcap would be tiny compared to the current marketcap, which is based on:

1) Network effect
2) Ability to hold money outside of the system
3) Speculation

Just like bitcoin. But bitcoin is even better since it has unique features, like moving money from A to B in ways that are impossible in any other way, that is it intrinsic feature dare I say.

I agree that gold's "intrinsic" value is much smaller than its current price, but it exists and is the base for all the hype around it. In the case of Bitcoin, the intrinsic value is exclusively tied to network effect because the code itself can be freely copied (and has been copied many times as we all know). Altcoins aren't bigger only because they're far away from Bitcoin's network effect size.

Quote
About noobs panic selling or panic buying, that also happens with gold, but since the marketcap is huge, the effect is not that noticeable. Bitcoin will keep growing in marketcap, which means those same panic sells/buys will be less noticeable overtime.

I agree, but we're talking about an event that takes place in a few days, not in a couple of years Tongue

Quote
Bitcoin is undervalued as it is today, so it will keep growing even if no major scaling updates are rolled out, with that im not saying shouldn't and will not come, they will sooner or later (not in BUcoin form tho)

I agree that cryptocurrencies are undervalued, and so is Bitcoin if it conserves its leading role in the cryptocurrency space. But Bitcoin was also undervalued in early 2014 and it got into a bear market for more than a year. So I don't understand why this affirmation is contrary to a short-to-mid-term trend reversal like the one I mentioned here (I've already said that I'm not talking about "Bitcoin's dead" here.)

Quote
Those coins are so fast because nobody uses them. If they had the same amount of transaction volume as bitcoin then guess what would happen.

Valid point, but there are altcoins which do have superior scalability to BTC (e.g. IOTA, Ardor and maybe Byteball but that last one seems pretty centralized to me.). And for the short-to-mid term, if (for example) Dash and Monero manage to capture 50% of Bitcoin's transaction volume (25% each) then none of each will have scalability problems but Bitcoin's leadership already would be under question.

Quote

If you look at the graph, the long-term trend and the very-short-term trend are both going downwards (that means, the Bitcoin dominance tends to go down). The mid-term trend was stable in the last months - in my opinion because Bitcoin's rally has attracted a lot of altcoin speculators' money. But I expect that to change. We can freeze this discussion now because we can't look into the future Wink

I think you misunderpreted my affirmation of a "post-ETF crash" to be long-term bearish, but I'm talking only about the short term and what could happen on March 11/13. And I don't see sub-500 (and maybe not even sub-700) prices - at least if the Segwit/scaling stalemate doesn't continue for much longer.

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March 06, 2017, 09:12:21 PM
 #33

C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.
In case you didn't notice we have reached ATH while being tangled in all these problem you listed.
We have massive spam attacks on the network, we are in the middle of scaling crisis, bitcoin's tx fees are the highest ever,
major Chinese exchanges aren't fully operational and there is risk of further regulations. Yet, bitcoin reached ATH.
Contradiction?
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March 07, 2017, 09:09:30 AM
 #34

The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.

C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.

this only shows that you (like many others) don't know what crash means and what it looks like in a market.
not every price drop is a crash. you hear it be called "a crash" by those who don't know it or want to spread some FUD about bitcoin.
these drops are simple and normal in any market. they have many reasons, from simple correction to FUD and panic selling because of some manipulation.
in case of ETF price won't crash, it may however go down a little bit because many like you fall for the FUD and think it will crash because of random news and sell their coins and there is nothing we love more than some cheap coins.

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March 07, 2017, 09:15:11 AM
 #35

If etf gets rejected sure there will be a crash in the price at least to some extent. It's been justified by bitcoin experts about the reason for the crash. Only the gradual price movement happens once it's result is announced. The second day result too has got importance even if the etf is approved on 11th March.

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vnvizow
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March 07, 2017, 09:19:35 AM
 #36

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
Agreed, but if it does crash this will be a contributing factor, just like how the drop from the PBOC scare happened
Searing
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March 07, 2017, 10:04:47 AM
 #37

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
Agreed, but if it does crash this will be a contributing factor, just like how the drop from the PBOC scare happened


Again imho. (Not that I know zip...at one time I drank the butterfly labs kool-aid). I STILL think if it does NOT get passed at this point in time it will 'expose' 2 things

1) The powers that be really, really hate BTC and the notion of a BTC ETF the last week, after a 3.5 year quest. That would tell me something about coming backlash
    on BTC and cyrpto in particular imho.

2) IF again, it does NOT get passed. Then the folk that turned it down, will really, really have to be nit picky and find lots of ifs/ans/or butts, because last I heard
there are at least 3 groups trying to fix their own brand of ETF for BTC ASAP. Thus, it the twins ETF is turned down this week, the powers that be will have to say WHY
which will allow the 3 late comers to 'adjust' accordingly. Gonna be harder and harder to justify imho. Especially if BTC continues to rise in value and show more
stablity as a  platform.

If nothing else a denial of the ETF (if it happens) will be very eye opening and open some more light on the process in the future...making it less likely the next ETF
attempt to take 3.5 years.

Again ...I've no clue..just how I am approaching this. Also if it does not pass I expect a 25% dump in price ...say around 900 bucks usd with a 2 month recovery to ATH again.

We will see I guess. IF they are gonna kill it ..I wish they'd get on with it...I got 'cheap coin' I need to buy if that is the case Smiley


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March 07, 2017, 10:47:36 AM
 #38

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
I agree with OP that price will not crash even if ETF is rejected after all we all can see that bitcoin is strong nowadays resisting attempted dumps just months and weeks ago especially on new years eve. We have seen bitcoin fall down below sub 1000$ yet it had risen again. I will just hold all the bitcoin I got and decide at the right time to sell it I hope im online at that time though.
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March 07, 2017, 11:48:09 AM
 #39

As we can see, we don't need ETF to fail. Bitcoin will crash and burn just fine without it gettinf approved or denied.

The Chinese are hardforking bitcoin with a huge userbase and better properties. This time there may be no recovery.

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March 07, 2017, 12:02:48 PM
 #40

As we can see, we don't need ETF to fail. Bitcoin will crash and burn just fine without it gettinf approved or denied.

The Chinese are hardforking bitcoin with a huge userbase and better properties. This time there may be no recovery.

haha, kwukduck is like one of those genies in cartoons that tell you to "burn one of my hair so i can appear and talk to you". and for him you have to have a dip so he can appear Smiley
now price went down and kwukduck appeared and started to say the same crap as always like a broken record. this time with another one of his old FUD about China.

Holding Bitcoin More Every Day
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