Long-term trend is up

[move_zig]

The rally we experienced at the start of this year is nothing like the 2011 bubble.

From the start of April to the end of May, 2011 BTC/USD rose by 41% per week (or about 5700000000% per year).

The rally that started in January has risen about 14% per week. We started rising too fast near the end of March and we experienced a correction. I think we're back to the 14% weekly growth trend now.

[1714049662]

1714049662

[MAbtc]

No. Don't think so. 

[blackreplica]

Based on those number's i'd agree. 14% a week is still a massive amount though.

Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?

[move_zig]

Based on those number's i'd agree. 14% a week is still a massive amount though.

Just out of curiousity, do you have the % growth for the weeks after the Cyprus incident leading up to the correction?

It depends on how I draw the lines, but if I go from the trough to peak for the four-week period leading up to the correction I get 62% weekly growth.

[blackreplica]

Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)

[ElectricMucus]

Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

[move_zig]

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

No one said it was a small amount.

I think we're back to following that trend now though.

[ElectricMucus]

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

No one said it was a small amount.

I think we're back to following that trend now though.

You can think whatever you like. 

[blackreplica]

Thanks for that. This would make a good bubble meter. History tells us that anything more than 41% is bubble territory. That would make a great upper limit. The price movement in the next few weeks should tell us if 14% is the lower limit, or if in fact it is something even lower (I don't think it could be less than the % change from Jan '12 to Jan '13 though, just eyeballing it, it looks like 2-3% per week?)

Uhh 14% a week is 91000% a year. (910 times)
Even pirate didn't pay that much.

I'm not advocating 14% ad infinitum. The sharper the growth rate, the faster the bubble rise and pop. the 2011 bubble, at 41% took about 3 months to pop. The recent 62% bubble popped in one month, or 1/3 the time. Assuming the relationship is between bubble magnitude and time-to-pop follows these parameters in a linear fashion, we're looking at a time window of as long as a year before we see some sort of change in the long term growth pattern. It may not be going on forever but if this rate holds we may see it for some time, and that means there is money to be made for quite a while

*insert standard ceteris paribus disclaimer here

[ElectricMucus]

I don't even have to post that bubble anatomy chart anymore.  



If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

[MAbtc]

14% weekly growth? Sustainable for what period? LOL!

[lebing]

I don't even have to post that bubble anatomy chart anymore.  



If it looks like a bull trap, smells like a bull trap it is probably a bull trap.

log.


scale.

[ManBearPig]

The trend you talk about is what I've been charting and discussing. Here's my latest:



Subsuming the April Crash into the trend is a little difficult but the current price action (or lack of it) almost looks as if it might want to rejoin the Jan-Mar 10 week period of 1.8% daily growth.

You are right in that there was an inflection point late in March which set us on unsustainable growth but it's amazing how stable the 1.8% daily trend was.

[ElectricMucus]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

tain-

able.

[lebing]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

tain-

able.

why, exactly?

[move_zig]

un-

sus-

tain-

able.

why, exactly?

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I assume it's because the linear-scale chart looks scary.

[ElectricMucus]

log.


scale.

un-

sus-

tain-

able.

why, exactly?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=181440.0

[blackreplica]

14% weekly growth? Sustainable for what period? LOL!

Look at ManBearPig's post. It has sustained itself since 9 Jan 2013, almost 5 months.

[SlipperySlope]

Yes the long term trend is up and its awesome.

Short term, I believe is the collapse of bubble 2. The chart shows that optimal purchases are not made on the way up in a bubble. Buy and hold investors should be patient if there is a bubble and buy months after the peak, IMO.

[Rygon]

OTC markets trading in Facebook shares were probably just as crazy in value appreciation in the early years. Facebook went from not existing to being worth $15B in less than four years.