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Author Topic: Game of Thrones - Who will rule? Odds and betting discussion [Odds updated!]  (Read 24779 times)
Juggy777
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April 05, 2019, 03:45:11 AM
 #481

@Ronnie. Thank you!

There are some betting opportunities in the characters to die first category that I reckon the sportsbooks might have them wrong hehehe.

Who will die first? If no one dies between them, your bet is a push and the bitcoins will be back in your account.


Daenarys 2.43
        or
Cersei 1.47


Tyrion 3.75
        or
Jaime 1.21


The Hound - 3.84
        or
The Mountain - 1.20


Gilly - 1.09
        or
Hot Pie 5.66


All my bets are for the underdogs.

Hey what do you mean by first category, are you referring to the first episode or first character to die in the series? I don’t think Cersei and Daenerys will be bumped off so early, same goes for Tyrion and Jamie, and between the hound and the mountain I feel the hound shall prevail. As we can see we’re down to Gilly or Hot pie I think I would gamble on hot pie being bumped off, as Gilly shall survive till the end.

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April 05, 2019, 09:40:38 AM
 #482

@bbc.reporter - If the Mountain kills the Hound there's going to be a riot!  Grin

I've mostly avoided the first death head to head matchups, as the ones with the best odds that I would usually bet on are the people I actually want to survive!

@Juggy777 The lines are head to head matchups, so the first one out of the two named characters to die during the series (any episode) will win. If neither of them die during the series then it's a push (stake returned).

I agree with most of your predictions except Cersei - there's been a few rumours going round of late that hint that she will be bumped off pretty early into the series, and because I dislike her i've convinced myself it's a fact  Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

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April 09, 2019, 02:42:11 AM
 #483

@Juggy777. Where were you all this time? I was asking for everyone's help to make requests on Cloudbet to reduce their minstake for the head to head who will die first match ups.

Look at the odds for characters to die first.

https://www.cloudbet.com/en/sports/international/game-of-thrones/c13251/outrights

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Naida_BR
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April 09, 2019, 10:18:11 AM
 #484

@Juggy777. Where were you all this time? I was asking for everyone's help to make requests on Cloudbet to reduce their minstake for the head to head who will die first match ups.

Look at the odds for characters to die first.

https://www.cloudbet.com/en/sports/international/game-of-thrones/c13251/outrights

It looks like I am not able to load this link..
Is it a problem from my side or it is a global one?

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April 09, 2019, 11:37:57 AM
 #485

these are what the Odds are on 1xbit. I have a feeling that Cersie will survive it all and sit on the throne in the end. GoT has delivered shockers for so long..I can see that happening.

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April 09, 2019, 12:37:35 PM
 #486

It looks like I am not able to load this link..
Is it a problem from my side or it is a global one?

@Naida_BR - I just clicked and it seems fine to me, and the odds are still up on site. If a direct link isn't working try clicking on the 'entertainment' tab on the left hand side of our sportsbook page and click through International > Game of Thrones.

EDIT: Just noticed on the 1xBit lines posted above - Brienne Tart  Grin

Thanks,

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

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April 11, 2019, 04:04:01 AM
 #487

The odds are updated! I have begun using Cloudbet's odds because it appears that Nitrogensports will not be offering the Game Of Thrones betting anymore.

Season 8 will begin on Sunday!


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April 11, 2019, 06:27:25 AM
 #488

Hello guys! Guess who decided to join the GoT lines party? One of my favourite sportsbooks Bitcoinrush has some lines, at first glance it seems the odds for a lot of things have dropped since I last looked a few weeks ago. Their display's a bit wonky but if you stretch your view it fits right.



Here's my only bet so far: Bronn to die first before Varys @2.94. I agree with Ronnie that Cersei's probably ripe to get knocked off but the odds for me are too low. Also, the Mountain should die. He already had an extension, surely not winning two big duels?

I honestly can't decide why Hot Pie shouldn't sit on the throne =p

Edit, the BCR link is here.

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April 11, 2019, 10:00:06 AM
 #489


I'm not sure if people are subscribers over at /r/gameofthrones on Reddit, but they are currently running a pool with people voting on who will claim the Iron Throne.

I thought it would be fun to pull together the votes and convert them into decimal odds, to see how the 'wisdom of the crowd' compares to the official odds  Smiley





Looks like Jon is still the clear fan's favourite, i'm surprised how many wen't with 'nobody' though...

... unless thats a faceless men reference  Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

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April 11, 2019, 10:31:09 AM
 #490


I'm not sure if people are subscribers over at /r/gameofthrones on Reddit, but they are currently running a pool with people voting on who will claim the Iron Throne.

I thought it would be fun to pull together the votes and convert them into decimal odds, to see how the 'wisdom of the crowd' compares to the official odds  Smiley





Looks like Jon is still the clear fan's favourite, i'm surprised how many wen't with 'nobody' though...

... unless thats a faceless men reference  Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

Hey Jon Snow has and always will be the fans favourite, I’m hoping he survives till the end which will be difficult but let’s hope for the best. I was just reading an article which had a very intriguing theory, that says Danny will destroy Kings Landing and there will be two wars this season as Danny already had those visions in season 2. Also I’m very excited now for the new season to start, just can’t wait to see who survives and who dies.

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April 11, 2019, 11:06:50 AM
 #491



Looks like Jon is still the clear fan's favourite, i'm surprised how many wen't with 'nobody' though...

... unless thats a faceless men reference  Wink

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

There are too many Jon Snow fans clearly!
The odds are very attractive even for the favorites and I think that GoT producers have heard the fans and they will probably give the Iron Throne to one of the most popular characters.

Winter is here and we will be about to know in some days!

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April 11, 2019, 02:40:59 PM
 #492

I don't get it Cheesy. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen. I am not saying Yara Greyjoy will sit on the iron throne (would be very weird) but how come Bran is leading right now ?

I doubt he would even accept or take it, after all he is "three eyed raven" and that is all he is, he accepted his faith already, maybe he will help someone take the throne sure but taking the throne himself doesn't seem that plausible.

I think Jon Snow could be really prime for the position, dude literally had the best character arc of "not wanted bastard" to "well deserved DAKINGINDANORF" , maybe even Cersei or Danny but really looking at the odds they are not as favorites as bran who is a crippled three eyed raven, I am trying to understand how he is the favorite but I can't seem to find the reason Cheesy. Hell littlefinger is dead and he still is ahead of many people Cheesy.

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April 11, 2019, 03:50:03 PM
 #493

I don't get it Cheesy. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen. I am not saying Yara Greyjoy will sit on the iron throne (would be very weird) but how come Bran is leading right now ?

I doubt he would even accept or take it, after all he is "three eyed raven" and that is all he is, he accepted his faith already, maybe he will help someone take the throne sure but taking the throne himself doesn't seem that plausible.

I think Jon Snow could be really prime for the position, dude literally had the best character arc of "not wanted bastard" to "well deserved DAKINGINDANORF" , maybe even Cersei or Danny but really looking at the odds they are not as favorites as bran who is a crippled three eyed raven, I am trying to understand how he is the favorite but I can't seem to find the reason Cheesy. Hell littlefinger is dead and he still is ahead of many people Cheesy.

I wrote our blog on the Game of Thrones betting odds and I still can't figure out why Bran is favourite at most sportsbooks. I agree that he's unlikely to even want it, I personally think he sees his role as the three eyed raven as more important than a simple throne (I ended up tipping Tyrion in the blog).

These kind of odds are usually worked out by looking at the amount of bets placed, as well as information from traders, but with 'entertainment' lines there's also the fan's rumour mill and potentially leaked production information to take into account.

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

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April 11, 2019, 11:00:46 PM
Last edit: April 11, 2019, 11:11:55 PM by STT
 #494

Quote
I don't get it Cheesy. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen.

Theres a skill in it but my guess would be like any set of bets its upto the house or the book maker to balance the popularity of all the various bets.   Its not that the bookmaker knows the answer, can know what will happen but that they must give correct odds to match the payout and possible profit or loss to it.   Always some will bet for an outcome and some against it and in theory they should be taking a % of either outcome so it should be good money if done right.   I'm only thinking about where they get rushed in the odds somehow or extreme upsets, where its not profitable

Quote
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Wisdom of the crowd does surprisingly well from survey I tried in the past but definitely not perfect

I think if the story remains good till the end, its going to be an unexpected twist which means I'd go for the outside bets personally

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April 12, 2019, 01:15:11 AM
 #495

@beerlover. There are people who bet on politics, the oscars, the miss universe and tv shows for as long as there was sportsbetting on the internet, I reckon.

Also, if you are a fan of the Game Of Thrones and sportsbetting, you have to bet hehehe.

@buwaytress. I do not see it in Bitcoinrush's sportsbook page. Are we allowed to see their Game Of Thrones offerings? What is their minstake?

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April 12, 2019, 03:12:15 AM
 #496

I don't get it Cheesy. How do you make predictions about a thing that is literally a TV show, isn't that too risky for cloudbet ? I mean yay for us of course but it is sooooo undecided that anything could happen. I am not saying Yara Greyjoy will sit on the iron throne (would be very weird) but how come Bran is leading right now ?
There's a lot of fan theory running in Youtube right now and one of the most popular ones is he is really the Night King which he is controlling through is warg ability. Another fan theory is Bran Stark and Brand the builder who built the wall is really just one person and he visited the past to build it.Other than that he knows what will happen next through his greensight power which will really be handy in the upcoming season. Other than that he could technically change the past just like what happened to Hodor.

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April 12, 2019, 11:00:51 AM
 #497

So it's coming right down to the wire now, can't wait for Sunday  Grin

I've noticed some fairly big movement on some of the odds since they went up:

- Gendry has dropped from (7.30) down to (5.24), making him the current 3rd favourite after Bran and Jon.
- Sansa has dropped from (11.4) down to (7.46)
- Tyrion dropped slightly from (8.43) to (7.91) (but is still my personal pick for the market)
- Dany's odds lengthened slightly from (4.95) to (5.70)

Has anyone seen any rumours that could explain the above movements?

Gendry in particular is very interesting considering he was one of the outsiders I originally tipped along with Tyrion in our guide to the Game of Thrones lines.

The night king and Cersei's odds also seem to have risen slightly, which could be good news for fans of 'the good guys' in season 8?

Ronnie @ Cloudbet

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buwaytress
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April 12, 2019, 01:11:16 PM
 #498

@beerlover. There are people who bet on politics, the oscars, the miss universe and tv shows for as long as there was sportsbetting on the internet, I reckon.

Also, if you are a fan of the Game Of Thrones and sportsbetting, you have to bet hehehe.

@buwaytress. I do not see it in Bitcoinrush's sportsbook page. Are we allowed to see their Game Of Thrones offerings? What is their minstake?

I actually only bet once before on this type of thing (Brexit, which I won, and I should have followed that up with a Trump victory in the US elections!) but I thought it's worth 1 or 2 punts for GoT. Kinda like how I actually still buy a random lottery every now and then. I figure I'd forego a snack and instead spend it on making other people rich (haha)..

I don't know either how to access it through BCR sports, there's usually a dropdown link for Specials but this is the direct link: https://www.bitcoinrush.io/sportsbook/game-of-thrones#

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April 12, 2019, 08:22:46 PM
 #499

Anytime theres an 'unpopular' bet (brexit and trump were classics, I definitely wouldn't predict trump but it was good odds afaik) its worth going for, basically because the people who spread trends of what is or what should happen might be the most vocal but it doesnt mean they actually represent the correct balance of probability.    It might just be Iam a sucker for an outside bet, big odds mean you dont have to risk as much also of course

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bbc.reporter
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April 13, 2019, 01:59:11 AM
 #500

Bitcoinrush has begun promoting their Game Of Thrones betting odds!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=228243.msg50571708#msg50571708

The sportsbook also has a lower minstake than Cloudbet. Bet there now before they pull it down! The show is beginning on Sunday hehehe.

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