expected return on investment with ASIC's

[Rampion]

organofcorti I meant to buy you a beer earlier, the Neighbourhood Pool Watch is awesome.

Thanks for donating youre time to the community..

I just sent 0.03436 / $5.01 to  youre donations bin:--->>  12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r

Its not much just a small thank you.

Best Regard,
Zedicus

Well, it was much appreciated. More so than a beer would have been, even if you'd been able to send me beercoins. Here's the best I could do to help you figure out a good price for an ASIC miner. If you don't understand anything just post in the comments.

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/915-fair-price-for-asic-miner.html

A taster:

Hi organofcorti, you did not answer regarding what's in your opinion a reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 (45GHs) if it arrives to customers hands in July. I'd appreciate your opinion on that...

[1714027575]

1714027575

[1714027575]

1714027575

[1714027575]

1714027575

[organofcorti]

Hi organofcorti, you did not answer regarding what's in your opinion a reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 (45GHs) if it arrives to customers hands in July. I'd appreciate your opinion on that...

Did you read the post? There's no simple answer, although I do give my opinion. Plus I can't accurately model July yet, although I did create a chart for you anyway.

I'll give  you the conclusion:

3. Conclusions

• If the network hashrate increases linearly, cumulative earnings increase logarithmically.
• The earlier mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more is earned earlier compared to later. The later mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more the cumulative earnings approximate that of a miner in a network with a constant hashrate.
• Since there's no simple short term cumulative earning maximum, I haven't been able to comply with the request Rampion and zedicus made - I hope the charts above are sufficient.

If you're asking me what I would choose, I'd be using the 100% line in the bottom plot to determine what I'd pay per Ghps for a mining device priced in BTC, so that I'd expect to have paid for the mining device and cleared the same amount again within sixty days - but only if I had a reasonable idea of when I'd be able to deploy it.

[Rampion]

Hi organofcorti, you did not answer regarding what's in your opinion a reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 (45GHs) if it arrives to customers hands in July. I'd appreciate your opinion on that...

Did you read the post? There's no simple answer, although I do give my opinion. Plus I can't accurately model July yet, although I did create a chart for you anyway.

I'll give  you the conclusion:

3. Conclusions

• If the network hashrate increases linearly, cumulative earnings increase logarithmically.
• The earlier mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more is earned earlier compared to later. The later mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more the cumulative earnings approximate that of a miner in a network with a constant hashrate.
• Since there's no simple short term cumulative earning maximum, I haven't been able to comply with the request Rampion and zedicus made - I hope the charts above are sufficient.

If you're asking me what I would choose, I'd be using the 100% line in the bottom plot to determine what I'd pay per Ghps for a mining device priced in BTC, so that I'd expect to have paid for the mining device and cleared the same amount again within sixty days - but only if I had a reasonable idea of when I'd be able to deploy it.

Thanks for that, I did not read the post - 0.03 donation on your way

[organofcorti]

Hi organofcorti, you did not answer regarding what's in your opinion a reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 (45GHs) if it arrives to customers hands in July. I'd appreciate your opinion on that...

Did you read the post? There's no simple answer, although I do give my opinion. Plus I can't accurately model July yet, although I did create a chart for you anyway.

I'll give  you the conclusion:

3. Conclusions

• If the network hashrate increases linearly, cumulative earnings increase logarithmically.
• The earlier mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more is earned earlier compared to later. The later mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more the cumulative earnings approximate that of a miner in a network with a constant hashrate.
• Since there's no simple short term cumulative earning maximum, I haven't been able to comply with the request Rampion and zedicus made - I hope the charts above are sufficient.

If you're asking me what I would choose, I'd be using the 100% line in the bottom plot to determine what I'd pay per Ghps for a mining device priced in BTC, so that I'd expect to have paid for the mining device and cleared the same amount again within sixty days - but only if I had a reasonable idea of when I'd be able to deploy it.

Thanks for that, I did not read the post - 0.03 donation on your way

Aw shucks, you didn't have to do that! But I appreciate it anyway

[Rampion]

Hi organofcorti, you did not answer regarding what's in your opinion a reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 (45GHs) if it arrives to customers hands in July. I'd appreciate your opinion on that...

Did you read the post? There's no simple answer, although I do give my opinion. Plus I can't accurately model July yet, although I did create a chart for you anyway.

I'll give  you the conclusion:

3. Conclusions

• If the network hashrate increases linearly, cumulative earnings increase logarithmically.
• The earlier mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more is earned earlier compared to later. The later mining is deployed after the onset of the long term linear hashrate increase, the more the cumulative earnings approximate that of a miner in a network with a constant hashrate.
• Since there's no simple short term cumulative earning maximum, I haven't been able to comply with the request Rampion and zedicus made - I hope the charts above are sufficient.

If you're asking me what I would choose, I'd be using the 100% line in the bottom plot to determine what I'd pay per Ghps for a mining device priced in BTC, so that I'd expect to have paid for the mining device and cleared the same amount again within sixty days - but only if I had a reasonable idea of when I'd be able to deploy it.

Thanks for that, I did not read the post - 0.03 donation on your way

Aw shucks, you didn't have to do that! But I appreciate it anyway

Your posts and insights are one of the most useful sources of information around - so no need to thank me. Thanks to you!

[Rampion]

I'm not a math person, so I've took a while to understand your charts

Anyhow I think I arrived to the same conclusion as you did, with my excel and my "hand made" projections: reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 would be around 0.4BTC per GHs. And still the risk would be high, as we are seeing how the delays are seem unavoidable.  If they price batch #4 that way (0.4BTC/0.5BTC per GHs), I'm ready to do a consistent investment. But I'm afraid it will be higher, I have the gut feeling it will be double than that... Which makes ROI very difficult if not impossible.

[organofcorti]

I'm not a math person, so I've took a while to understand your charts

Anyhow I think I arrived to the same conclusion as you did, with my excel and my "hand made" projections: reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 would be around 0.4BTC per GHs. And still the risk would be high, as we are seeing how the delays are seem unavoidable.  If they price batch #4 that way (0.4BTC/0.5BTC per GHs), I'm ready to do a consistent investment. But I'm afraid it will be higher, I have the gut feeling it will be double than that... Which makes ROI very difficult if not impossible.

We are projecting a fair way past the point for which I have confidence in my estimates, so a gut feeling is probably as good As soon as the Avalon 4 pricing and shipping schedule is made public I'll post a more accurate update. Who knows, maybe BFL ASICs won't start deploying in bulk after May 15th, in which case you could afford to pay a bit more.

[jspielberg]

According to what BFL has been saying, it sounds like they will be averaging microsingles at 60 to 100 a week (~12 a day) for the next couple of weeks at least.  Who knows when they will be able to bring up the capacity, but with BFL, I believe later rather than sooner.  

Avalon B2 and B3 will put some serious hashing power onto the network (~90Th/s).  If the Avalon ROI pricing calculation doesn't factor in their own success, then the price for B4 will be way to high to make sense.  Sure, I would love to buy into .4BTC/1Gh, but I agree, this seems like wishful thinking.

As much as I would like to get into Batch 4, I don't think it makes sense personally until they ship out B2 and B3 so their pricing formula would be closer to accurate.  

[organofcorti]

According to what BFL has been saying, it sounds like they will be averaging microsingles at 60 to 100 a week (~12 a day) for the next couple of weeks at least.  Who knows when they will be able to bring up the capacity, but with BFL, I believe later rather than sooner.  

Avalon B2 and B3 will put some serious hashing power onto the network (~90Th/s).  If the Avalon ROI pricing calculation doesn't factor in their own success, then the price for B4 will be way to high to make sense.  Sure, I would love to buy into .4BTC/1Gh, but I agree, this seems like wishful thinking.

As much as I would like to get into Batch 4, I don't think it makes sense personally until they ship out B2 and B3 so their pricing formula would be closer to accurate.  

The model includes deployment times and hashrates for Avalon 2 and 3 that are as accurate as far as I can tell. The model is so far on target with the ASICMiner / Bitfountain deployment. It's just BFL shipping dates and hashrates of which I'm uncertain.

What the hell's a "microsingle"? Is that like a Jalapeno? Have the bastards gone and changed nomenclature on me?

[jspielberg]

Sorry Organo... the microsingle (usingle) is my nomenclature... BFL have given up on the jalapeño branding and have acknowledged they are using their old single board and case but only 1 or 2 chips (they are a bit vague on this).

Frankly I find it easier to type usingle than jalapeño anyway.

Sooo getting back on ASIC ROI discussion (Asic ROIds?).... is the probability good that will B3 return their costs in BTC if run for 6 months (ignoring exch rate and electricity)?

What sayeth all...

[organofcorti]

Sorry Organo... the microsingle (usingle) is my nomenclature... BFL have given up on the jalapeño branding and have acknowledged they are using their old single board and case but only 1 or 2 chips (they are a bit vague on this).

Frankly I find it easier to type usingle than jalapeño anyway.

Sooo getting back on ASIC ROI discussion (Asic ROIds?).... is the probability good that will B3 return their costs in BTC if run for 6 months (ignoring exch rate and electricity)?

What sayeth all...

If the deployment date is 1st June, I have a fair degree of certainty that Avalon 3 won't return its costs in the first sixty days. After that, I have no idea.

[salihno71]

...

Avalon B2 and B3 will put some serious hashing power onto the network (~90Th/s).  If the Avalon ROI pricing calculation doesn't factor in their own success, then the price for B4 will be way to high to make sense.  Sure, I would love to buy into .4BTC/1Gh, but I agree, this seems like wishful thinking.

As much as I would like to get into Batch 4, I don't think it makes sense personally until they ship out B2 and B3 so their pricing formula would be closer to accurate.  

Pricing will heavily influence sales - if they go too high with a price, not many will be sold.

[Rampion]

...

Avalon B2 and B3 will put some serious hashing power onto the network (~90Th/s).  If the Avalon ROI pricing calculation doesn't factor in their own success, then the price for B4 will be way to high to make sense.  Sure, I would love to buy into .4BTC/1Gh, but I agree, this seems like wishful thinking.

As much as I would like to get into Batch 4, I don't think it makes sense personally until they ship out B2 and B3 so their pricing formula would be closer to accurate.  

Pricing will heavily influence sales - if they go too high with a price, not many will be sold.

Don't underestimate greed and stupidity. The ASICMINER blades where auctioned at a price which will NEVER ROI (75BTC for 10GHs)

[computerparts]

...

Pricing will heavily influence sales - if they go too high with a price, not many will be sold.


Don't underestimate greed and stupidity. The ASICMINER blades where auctioned at a price which will NEVER ROI (75BTC for 10GHs)

Exactly. I was going to bid in that auction until I saw how stupid it got.

[zedicus]

organofcorti!!  

Thanks for obliging!!

0.03 donation on your way

Thats whats up!! More people should pony up... The neighborhood pool watch is a community asset as far as im concerned!
Im sure ill be donating again in the future.

I'm not a math person, so I've took a while to understand your charts

Anyhow I think I arrived to the same conclusion as you did, with my excel and my "hand made" projections: reasonable price for Avalon batch #4 would be around 0.4BTC per GHs. And still the risk would be high, as we are seeing how the delays are seem unavoidable.  If they price batch #4 that way (0.4BTC/0.5BTC per GHs), I'm ready to do a consistent investment. But I'm afraid it will be higher, I have the gut feeling it will be double than that... Which makes ROI very difficult if not impossible.

Im leaning towards this analogy but im a lil bit more flexible ... at the same time i have the same gut feeling that may lead me to rethink the whole batch #4 series.


As organofcorti said a big part of the formula is the deployment date, not the "its on the way date", or possible ship date! Im talking about this thing is in front of me mining date! I think Avalon understands this well hence releasing info regarding b2, b3 let alone b4 shipping might just be shooting themselves in the foot.  ( who knows, maybe avalon is on vacation like someone said.. or maybe they are still building their assembly line. Its a huge blind spot for us for sure tho.)

 I think they have a lot to consider, hell batch 2/3/4 might all be ready to go and they are testing and or mining with them until they have better determined the volume of asics coming online from competitors and the diy crowd that just sank teeth into avalon asic chips..

Are Avalon asic chips "supposed" to arrive before or after b2/b3/4?? I havent really been keeping up.. but i think this analogy has really opened up my eyes a bit for me and i may go head first into one of these diy threads.. i think "burning" has been making some headway.  Im sure there are pros and cons to consider there as well.

 Did avalon give more than a days notice before the other batches went on sale. Then demand was a lil under 4k as far as the poll but who knows after considering the difficulty what the demand is now.  Somehow im leaning towards it not selling out in an hour.. I wonder how long we will have to reanalyze before a decision making point is forced upon us.

Anyway i dont find it a coincidence that we are without "timing". The Avalon "IN MY HANDS MINING" date at this time maybe more valuable then the miner its-self!


Thanks again organofcorti and Rampion too for asking the question i was thinking and for donating to "our" cause.







Best Regard,
Zedicus

[Rampion]

My pleasure. Organofcorti does indeed a needed service to our community