CryptoKingdom Markets

[ArticMine]

Here is a snapshot of the CryptoKingdom depository markets and their pricing in terms of  Markka (M) and Monero (XMR)

In terms of Markka

M3 (XMR)
32,789  (Ask)          32,464  (Bid)

B1 (XBT)
184,149   (Ask)     182,321 (Bid)

E1 (EUR)
90,000   (Ask)       10,201  (Bid)

Now here is where it gets very interesting. I used the mid market price for M3 (XMR) 32626.5 and recalculated the prices in terms of Monero (XMR) and compared them with the external free markets

M3 (XMR)
1.005      (Ask)     0.995  (Bid)        1.000

B1 (XBT)
56.44      (Ask)    55.88  (Bid)           57.92 (Market price from Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/#BTC)

E1 (EUR)
0.02758  (Ask)        0.00313  (Bid)       0.05181 (Market price from Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/#EUR)

Can someone please explain to me why anyone would sell EUR for 0.00313 XMR each (319.5 XMR/EUR) when the current market value is more like 0.05181 XMR (19.30 XMR/EUR)? We are not talking futures contracts here or are we?

[1713933100]

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[goin2mars.]

I'm curious about where the CAN market is heading. Any ideas?

up apparently

[goin2mars.]

I am re posting here the post on the EUR (E1) markets that was deleted from the main CK thread.

1. Earliest 6 game-days from this notice, every single FUCK will be taken from its owner and consumed with no obvious effect. (Multiple FUCKs are unaffected.)

2. 1*E1=10,000*M peg was removed from the marketmaking. E1 (as well as everything else) floats freely now, infinite ladder by Coinshop.

3. Currently circulating M certificates will retain fixed conversion (EUR 10 in banknotes for 100,000 Markka in certificates received and vice versa).

4. Every time the price of E1 reaches 7,000*M, each M will give 1*M newdividend (ie. item:M quantity doubles and percentage ownership is unaffected).

5. Certificates are excluded from the dividend, so it is possible to keep a part of your stash as darknessmoney (cash), but the lightmoney (changelog) pays dividends over time.

Here are my thoughts on all of this.

Markka, M, is both the ingame currency for CryptoKingdom and equity in CryptoKingdom itself, since it is CK re-denominated. This is like using stock in Linden Labs rather than Linden Dollars as the in game currency in Second Life. Personally I find the idea very appealing since effectively CryptoKingdom is owned by its players.

Pegging M to EUR made no sense at all. This was aggravated by an artificially high price about 3.5x the market rate and highly restricted market for EUR withdrawals. So to say the least I am very pleased that this artificial 1*E1=10,000*M peg was removed from the marketmaking and E1 will be allowed to float freely. Nevertheless E1 is to say the least very inefficient for deposits and withdrawals, especially when compared to M3 and B1. It would make sense to do market making for E1 based upon M3/M and B1/M rates and the EUR/XMR and EUR/XBT rates.

Re-denominating M based upon the market value of E1 makes sense to me provided that that it is based upon proper market discovery, which in practice may involved the M3/M and B1/M rates and the EUR/XMR and EUR/XBT rates.

I fail to see the point of a separate item for E1 certificates unless these certificates charge or pay interest. If someone wishes to hold EUR in CK why can't they just hold E1?

Edit: A stock split and a stock dividend are in reality the same thing, although some tax authorities attempt to distinguish between the two.

I hope this post fares better in this thread.

I also think that having the ownership tied to currency is a neat idea, when tied to a game. I suppose it would also be partially equivalent to using Activision Blizzard stock as WoW gold. Partially because they offer multiple games that use different currency, and because those games don't offer property of value (with title to non-fungible land), though they do offer fungible items.

I'm a little on-edge about non-fungible land (titles to land in chapelries), due to seeing how the Star Wars MMO ended up with so many barren houses, but haven't put much thought to that yet. Maybe if it's designed well then it'll be different.

I'm still a lot confused about the E1 peg, unless it was an attempt at an early buy-out or something. Maybe it was just the act of giving without a fuck? Maybe it was an attempt to confirm the belief that, today the proclamation could be made that he's definitely probably got another million in his pocket (25% outstanding Markka ownership i think is what he's got, and said it won't go below 5M cap). Maybe a lot of things, as instructions seem to come day by day

As far as E1 certificates - maybe a CYA to say 'oh its game items don't pay attention'? Also the exchange for certificates, assuming the reach is greater than that of the current walking ATM's, would allow for digital movement of E1 from one to another without having to exchange for something else. This of course hinges on whether or not physical Euro's can be redeemed IRL. I don't have a passport ATM, and don't have anyone locally in which to guarantee this is the case, so have chosen to assume that the truth has been spoken in regards to there being 800k or so Euros that can be redeemed from walking ATM's and/or depository in some location somewhere in Estonia, probably in or around Tallinn, I'm not familiar with the geography.

Good point about the stock split == stock dividend, hadn't thought about it like that. But dividends typically are given in fiat, and the choice is often (to the point where it's just a checkmark), but not always, to buy stock with that fiat that was divided. In this case, with the stock being the same as currency, they are the exact same.

Here is a snapshot of the CryptoKingdom depository markets and their pricing in terms of  Markka (M) and Monero (XMR)

In terms of Markka

M3 (XMR)
32,789  (Ask)          32,464  (Bid)

B1 (XBT)
184,149   (Ask)     182,321 (Bid)

E1 (EUR)
90,000   (Ask)       10,201  (Bid)

Now here is where it gets very interesting. I used the mid market price for M3 (XMR) 32626.5 and recalculated the prices in terms of Monero (XMR) and compared them with the external free markets

M3 (XMR)
1.005      (Ask)     0.995  (Bid)        1.000

B1 (XBT)
56.44      (Ask)    55.88  (Bid)           57.92 (Market price from Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/#BTC)

E1 (EUR)
0.02758  (Ask)        0.00313  (Bid)       0.05181 (Market price from Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/#EUR)

Can someone please explain to me why anyone would sell EUR for 0.00313 XMR each (319.5 XMR/EUR) when the current market value is more like 0.05181 XMR (19.30 XMR/EUR)? We are not talking futures contracts here or are we?

Thank you very much for doing this, I've wanted to do this, or something similar to it, for a few days now.

Stability wrt XMR at this point with these numbers would indicate that B1 should stabilize ~ 60, and E1 should stabilize ~.05.

Seemingly there is unease in owning E1 itself, as its only withdrawal method being physical atm.

Maybe it's just to analyze/measure the rate at which people will pull 'x' currency out of the system, and move forward accordingly?

Add: of course there is the very real possibility that stability  with xmr does not happen, or does not happen very long, as I did see the claim somewhere that the costs of depository shares are going down on the return of 100 billion markka.. in which case I would imagine the relentless selling of deposited shares would likely continue .. albeit with less confusion than before.

[generalizethis]

http://ckchart.cryptokingdom.me/

[ArticMine]

Anyone following the depository markets in CK has to conclude that trying to peg Markka to Euro at 10,000 M = 1 EUR is at current market values is pure fiction.

Historically states have maintained this kind of fiction by imposing foreign exchange controls, including different forms of the "same" currency, and or course restricting and even prohibiting the holding of foreign currencies. The point of exchange controls is to preserve the foreign exchange reserves of the sovereign, while maintaining the fiction of a higher valuation of the national currency than its actual market value.  In the case of CryptoKingdom the foreign exchange consists primarily of Monero (XMR), Bitcoin (XBT) and now Euros (EUR).

I am providing two links one historical and one modern on the subject of exchange controls for those who may not be familiar or have actually experienced this issue.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/qb/1967/qb67q3245260.pdf
http://www.linklaters.com/pdfs/mkt/london/Eurozone-Bulletin-Capital-Exchange-Controls.pdf

I personally have experienced foreign exchange controls from the 1960's until the 1990's.

[tombots]

Weekly housing markets report. These houses / land lots are for sale at the moment:

Borough 1
2000 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/14
29.5 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/182
29.5 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/183

Borough 2
400 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/331
240 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/363

Borough 4
74 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/757
30 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/726
15 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/724

Borough 9
280 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/913
150 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/919
150 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/918
15 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/943


Next report coming this weekend.

[generalizethis]

CAN production went up 10x, but the price is about double in correlation: 1.6mil @ 3,000 to 16mil @ 600. The tendency of the market has always been to hoard CAN, so no telling where the price steadies (I say steadies as CAN"s always been a volatile market).

[CrazyLoaf]

To just provide an idea of the sort of money flowing around...

This property was just sold for 2 BILLION M: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/14

This was a prime 700 sqm lot with 105% macrolocation (which shows desirability of the land).

With the 10k M to 1 Euro peg in place, this is a 200k Euro purchase.

Additionally, here's a look at the hot wallet for withdrawals for CK:

Listen to THIS while I pay blockchain BTC to all the withdrawers of B1 during this DAY.

These are people getting money out of the game and withdrawing BTC.

[generalizethis]

E1

Price       Amount      Player
9,000     9407035     Coinshop 

[tombots]

Weekly housing markets report. These houses / land lots are for sale at the moment:

Borough 1
250 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/40
29.5 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/182
29.5 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/183

Borough 2
10 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/340

Borough 4
45 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/726

Borough 5
100 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/819

Borough 9
150 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/919
150 mil: https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/918

[kidjim]

CAN production went up 10x, but the price is about double in correlation: 1.6mil @ 3,000 to 16mil @ 600. The tendency of the market has always been to hoard CAN, so no telling where the price steadies (I say steadies as CAN"s always been a volatile market).

I was confused about CAN flooding via registration even before the 420 dividend, but you're right in that there seems to be little rhyme or reason to the price for the most part.  There were some major consumption events right after the dividend, and I expected to see more, but the Top of the World scores have certainly reflected cheap CAN (need to consume 3k+ to get near the top 5 now). 

[generalizethis]

CAN production went up 10x, but the price is about double in correlation: 1.6mil @ 3,000 to 16mil @ 600. The tendency of the market has always been to hoard CAN, so no telling where the price steadies (I say steadies as CAN"s always been a volatile market).

I was confused about CAN flooding via registration even before the 420 dividend, but you're right in that there seems to be little rhyme or reason to the price for the most part.  There were some major consumption events right after the dividend, and I expected to see more, but the Top of the World scores have certainly reflected cheap CAN (need to consume 3k+ to get near the top 5 now). 

With all the bot-registrations increasing the CAN supply, the price still is 3x the inflation price. CAN is always in demand and whales love to hoard it, so the pressure always ends up increasing the price. Risto's tried all kinds of controls to get it at a target price (500 at one time), but nothing works

[sammy007]

Selling some corporate shares:

https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/s-gb
https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/s-ggg
https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/s-ll

Also some realty:

https://cryptokingdom.me/land/lot/details/931

[Scrotum]

I'm going to re-post this here,

A reply of yours, quoted below, was deleted by the starter of a self-moderated topic. There are no rules of self-moderation, so this deletion cannot be appealed. Do not continue posting in this topic if the topic-starter has requested that you leave.

You can create a new topic if you are unsatisfied with this one. If the topic-starter is scamming, post about it in Scam Accusations.

Is it time to address the elephant in the room?

Risto might be suffering a bout of mental illness, probably induced by the theft of 700k XMR, the break up of his marriage, the estrangement from his children, and maybe a genetic predisposition.

He has mentioned being hospitalized previously for mental health issues, and from reading his posts over the last few months, he doesn't appear to be fully rational, and his behaviour is erratic, and self destructive.

It might be time for an intervention.

About 12 years ago I went through a bad patch in my life, I started drinking heavily, behaving badly towards family/friends, making bad decisions, becoming unreliable etc it went on for about 2 years. I went to the doctor over another issue and he asked me if I was depressed, and I answered 'yes', thinking it was a literal question like 'are you tired?', or 'do you get headaches?'. Luckily for me I followed the doctors advice and saw a counsellor for 10 therapy sessions which started the process of bringing me back to my former mental state, and helped me realise what was happening to me. I was diagnosed with a version of post traumatic stress disorder, induced by grief. In retrospect it saddened me that so many of my friends, work colleagues, and family didn't do anything to intervene, even though many knew of the traumatic experience I went through. It was easier to explain my destructive behaviour as a character flaw (I was a 'dickhead'), rather than an alternate explanation, like I was going through a mental health crisis.

I think it's very likely risto is suffering some sort of mental health issue now, probably induced by grief over the losses in his life. He's acting like a 'dickhead', but that's a symptom, not his underlying personality. This is a difficult subject to raise, but I do it as someone with personal experience of mental health issues, and also as someone who admires what risto did for monero in the early days (e.g. my understanding is risto gave fluffypony his hefty stake in CK as a gift). The current situation is analogous to watching a really drunk person pick up their car keys to drive home, there's a good chance they'll kill themselves, other innocent people, or probably both. Maybe it's time to take the CK car keys off risto, just until he's 'back to normal', so he doesn't do damage he deeply regrets later.

[generalizethis]

   

The Stonehaven Gaming Company

After the success of the raffle bets, it was suggested that SGC run a longer version of that. This is what SGC005 is all about. For a whole week, raffle prizes will be counted, in the same way as the previous contest. The square root function is done on every raffler's daily count, so as to encourage more people having a couple daily hunts.

For reference, the past three monday-to-sunday weeks had these scores:
3-9: 316.08
10-16: 325.47
17-23: 455.09

The last one contains the contest sunday, whose single score was 120.85. I don't see it plausible that such a fervent raffle activity can be fully sustained for a whole week though, so I'm not quite making the weekly target 7 times that. I think 777 is a good target.

The https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/SGC005A series tickets bet the cumulative weekly score will be at least 777
The https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/SGC005B series tickets bet that it will not reach 777

SGC will be selling these tickets till sunday evening. Tickets are free trading at all times.

Edit:

And to continue with the Monero price betting, we're now aiming for 1600k satoshi:

The https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/SGC006A series tickets bet Monero reaches at least 1,600,000 satoshi by the evening of 3 may 2017, midnight GMT
The https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/SGC006B series tickets bet it does not.

Let the better bettor win

[generalizethis]

Monero shot up to past 1600k already, so that takes care of SGC006.
Odin and hmc win. Nobody had bet against, so this is just money back for Odin and hmc.

Since that one got decided to fast, I've opened another one, to see whether Monero goes back to 1500k by the end of the third of may.

https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/SGC008A says it does.
https://cryptokingdom.me/marketplace/item/SGC008B says it doesn't.

[ArticMine]

In the midst  of all of this turmoil a valid exercise is estimating the actual value of Markka and thereby obtain an estimate on the market cap of Crypto Kingdom.

If we consider that the only reliable depository for withdrawals is M3 - XMR at least while saddam is running it. At around 7:00 UTC April 27, 2014 I performed an analysis that started with the purchase on the open market of 1 M3 0.01 XMR for 599,997 M.  This is equivalent to 59,999,700 M for 1 XMR. or a market cap for the 2,000,000,000,000 M of 33,898.305 XMR. Another evaluation is if we consider the holdings of Coinshop of M3 at 300,000 M3 or 3000 XMR I would consider 3000 XMR to be the lower limit, since this reflectively only values the "foreign currency" holding and places no value on the game it self.

As for the pending B1 and E1 withdrawals these are essentially a claim on Risto Pietila and not on Crypto Kingdom; however Risto Pietila though his character Zechariah own approximately 30.85% of M. This could be significant if part of these claims are settled in M and the new holders of M decide to head for the exits.

So what is the market cap of Crypto Kingdom. Based on the above analysis on can argue for ~34,000 XMR or ~658,000 EUR. Based upon that latest M3 ask of 400,000 M on can argue for about  1,000,000 EUR. At the other extreme based upon the Coinshop holdings we get around 58,000 EUR.

The above is all a far cry from the peg of 20,000 M = 1 EUR or a 100,000,000 EUR market cap.

Edit: I stand by my position that the 10,000 M = 1 EUR peg now 20,000 M = 1 EUR peg was an incredibly fiscally imprudent idea, and has resulted in what amounts to an exodus from CK. Had even a minuscule portion of the funds that were dedicated to this ill conceived currency peg been spent on the actual development of the game it is quite possible that over time a significantly higher valuation than 100,000,000 EUR could have occurred. Unfortunately this much more sane approach was not the path chosen.

[goin2mars.]

I don't know, I used all three depository shares and converted to USD, found a bunch of averages and came up with thinking this is worth anywhere from 1.06 million USD to 127.889 million USD, with a 'backing' of 3.042 million USD, hence the name of the sheet being crypto mindfuck:



This doesn't take into account any value outside the in-game exchange of depository shares and assumes that all depositories are legitimate.

[ArticMine]

I don't know, I used all three depository shares and converted to USD, found a bunch of averages and came up with thinking this is worth anywhere from 1.06 million USD to 127.889 million USD, with a 'backing' of 3.042 million USD, hence the name of the sheet being crypto mindfuck:



This doesn't take into account any value outside the in-game exchange of depository shares and assumes that all depositories are legitimate.

Even if the depositories were legitimate namely fully funded they still paint a false picture if there is a deep pocketed participant dumping large amounts of XBT and EUR on the market. In this situations and assuming no fractional reserve there are essentially two possibilities:
1) The deep pocketed participant ends up owning the entire asset while over paying for it
2) The deep pocketed participant gives up trying to manipulate the price, the price goes back to its proper level, in many cases after over shooting to the downside. All this does is provide an opportunity for those who sold to buy back at a substantial profit.

[sammy007]

Buying S-RWIN, please dump if you hold it by mistake.