XAU/USD probable outcome

[teodor87]

So I've been thinking a lot about gold price.

Here is a monthly chart:



I think there are 3 possible outcomes:

1. Price explodes to 2000$ in the matter of 4 - 5 weeks, after which pulls back to mid 1600s for a long period of time with short time fluctuations.

2. Price drops to 1350 - a massive support area and stops there.

3. The outcome I hope for - gold falls way back to 780 then sky rockets to god knows how much. Perhaps evern more than 2000$, after which a pullback to 2000$ expected. 2000$ would definitely be the new massive support area. If that happens - buy 1 year AU options.

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[teodor87]

Update 15.04.2013 - 18:43 - Sofia Time:



Gold has crushed the 1400$/tr. oz. level and went all the way down to 1354$ and had a little bounce to 1375.

By this point breaking the 1350 barrier looks highly unlikely, since there is a massive support at that area.

I'd say looking at the forming hammer, that the next two months will be very bullish for XAU/USD.

[johnyj]

Someone is cashing out to buy bitcoin 

[teodor87]

Ahahaha! Possible. 

[teodor87]

But I have to say that I looked at the morning table and it does not look good. It broke the 1350 level.

That's crazy. Perhaps the Swiss National Bank is dumping gold again.

Maybe for bitcoin! (joking) 

[teodor87]

Looks like gold is stabilizing around 1350. Now it's at 1381.

It might reverse. If it does the momentum might reach more than 2000$. Thats ~12000pips...

Man, I would not like to calculate how much money are there to be made.

[teodor87]

Small update. Gold is around 1430 now.

If it breaks 1450 again it's going to rise again.

[teodor87]

Update 15.04.2013 - 18:43 - Sofia Time: Gold rose up 120$ up to 1443.80 - thats 2400 pips - a potential 24000$ profit. If it breaks and closes above 1450 it means that it's buy time again.

So option 2 looks like the real deal to me.

[teodor87]

Gold at 1474 this morning. Buy time.