Should I re-buy in?

[notme]

I believe some individual or small group with millions of dollars is manipulating the market, starting rallies that are so convincing that everyone piles in, believing the climb won't stop until we hit $1 million per bitcoin, then flash crashes so devastating that people sell everything in a panic.  The manipulators profit by doing most of their buying early in the rallies, when prices are low, and massive selling at the start of the crashes, while prices are still high.

Their moves are sufficiently random that the only way to accurately predict the tops and bottoms is to be privy to they plans of the manipulators.  However, we can expect them to keep doing the things they have been doing.  They tend to create 1 or 2 small flash crashes each week, varying in size from 15% to 40%.  I also suspect that they will invoke another major crash within the next few months.  

Even though I cannot predict the tops and bottoms, I believe it is possible to profit from this artificial volativity by placing limit orders to automatically sell on the way up, and then to re-buy on the crashes.

For example, every time the price goes up 5% you could sell 1% of your holdings.  As soon as that sell executes, you place a buy order for more coins at a 15% lower price.  When that re-buy executes during a small downturn, you re-place the sell order at the higher price.  I currently have 21 sell orders placed between $162 and $222, and 11 buy orders between $109 and $139.  Every time a sell/buy pair executes, I gain 15% more bitcoins.

I think it's a safe bet that the price will rise again to $250 or more, suffering several flash crashes on the way, and then crash again to less than $100.  My system makes money every time I get out and in, and when we crash back to $100 again, I should have considerably more coins than when I started.  Also, by selling into rallies and buying into corrections, I help stabilize the price a bit.  If more people would adopt this system, we might foil the manipulation scheme entirely.

Your case is different, since you're starting with fiat.  I think I would place buy orders ranging from about $100 to perhaps 10% below the current price.  As the price rises, keep adding more buys.  When we hit the next flash crash, you will certainly hit some of those buys.  Immediately place an order to resell those coins at a 25% profit.  When those sells execute, use the proceeds to place buys 15% lower.

Or if that's too much work, you could wait for the next major crash.  It could take several months, and there's no way to call the exact bottom.  But you could wait until 24 hours after a devastating crash, buy in, then gradually sell as the price starts going up again.

The key is to avoid panic buying when the price is high and panic selling after the price drops!

Another reason why we need more people adding liquidity with standing orders.

[Melbustus]

I've played the market 3 times and won all 3...
$104 --> $235
$88  --> $100
$104 --> $135

The sell at $135 was actually good because it dropped down to $120 for a few days after that. I just never bought back in (thought it was gonna go down further), and now it's shot back up to $155.

In the words of Lebron James, what should I do?

Ok, really... How old are you people? Are you all 20yr olds trading for the first time in your lives with $5000 or something? Daytrading is a negative sum game subject to misunderstanding of statistical significance, optimism bias, and selective memory. Most of the winners are simply lucky; yes, even over the long-haul (no, I'm not an EMT guy, though that statement slightly makes me sound like one). Very few have a statistically significant ability to succeed long-term.

I'm reminded of a long-time (at least 15yrs) day-trader acquaintance who, despite being net-positive over 15yrs, increasingly realized as he got older and more experienced that his "edge" was more likely just luck (ie, statistical variance). He quit the business.

In short; do you really think your analysis, experience, skill, timing, insight, and execution are actually significantly better than everyone's else's? If you're one of the experienced professional traders who no doubt play in the thin fun-to-manipulate bitcoin market on nights and weekends, ok. But I suspect you're one of the ones who's likely to get long-term fleeced by such.

Do not forgot that the nature of systems like these is such that for a while you get lots of small wins and a bit fewer small losses (leading a confidence-building net win) until one day you get an enormous loss.

In short: If you're long-term bullish on bitcoin, just buy and walk away. If you're long-term bearish, either don't buy, or head over to coinsetter and short btc and walk away (until your margin call forces you back, lol).

[rpietila]

Whoever actually knows wont be telling you on here

Yes, since this is a wrong thread. I know, and see my "last posts by this person" for details.

Not that it mattered, though. Since you earn so much by buy/hold, as Vladimir does, all trading is just a icing on the bonus.

If you want to be well-off, You should try to have more than your share of the key unprintables:

(- Land)
- Gold, 23 grams, currently valued at 7,000mBTC
- Silver, 3ozt (scrap ok), currently valued at 700mBTC
- Bitcoins, 3mBTC, valued at 3mBTC

If even gold and silver are dropping since the money is entering into bitcoin (with a considerable lag though, as often it needs to be converted to fiat in the meantime and a wait of 1-2 weeks), don't you think that USD days are literally numbered?

I mean, of course gold and silver need to drop in bitcoin terms. But their spot is crashing even when denominated in fiat! That will reverse soon.

[ManBearPig]

"Won" ? Is this a game?

   Yes?

Agreed.

Yep.

[ManBearPig]

Definitely get back in. The market is showing such strength right now you could miss out on a lot of profit.

It seems we are marching back towards the ATH with a vengeance which we all know we fell away from unnaturally, aided by the DDoS.

[ManBearPig]

I've played the market 3 times and won all 3...
$104 --> $235
$88  --> $100
$104 --> $135

The sell at $135 was actually good because it dropped down to $120 for a few days after that. I just never bought back in (thought it was gonna go down further), and now it's shot back up to $155.

In the words of Lebron James, what should I do?

Ok, really... How old are you people? Are you all 20yr olds trading for the first time in your lives with $5000 or something? Daytrading is a negative sum game subject to misunderstanding of statistical significance, optimism bias, and selective memory. Most of the winners are simply lucky; yes, even over the long-haul (no, I'm not an EMT guy, though that statement slightly makes me sound like one). Very few have a statistically significant ability to succeed long-term.

I'm reminded of a long-time (at least 15yrs) day-trader acquaintance who, despite being net-positive over 15yrs, increasingly realized as he got older and more experienced that his "edge" was more likely just luck (ie, statistical variance). He quit the business.

In short; do you really think your analysis, experience, skill, timing, insight, and execution are actually significantly better than everyone's else's? If you're one of the experienced professional traders who no doubt play in the thin fun-to-manipulate bitcoin market on nights and weekends, ok. But I suspect you're one of the ones who's likely to get long-term fleeced by such.

Do not forgot that the nature of systems like these is such that for a while you get lots of small wins and a bit fewer small losses (leading a confidence-building net win) until one day you get an enormous loss.

In short: If you're long-term bullish on bitcoin, just buy and walk away. If you're long-term bearish, either don't buy, or head over to coinsetter and short btc and walk away (until your margin call forces you back, lol).

I don't think I'm particularly special but everything time I read something like this I wonder what the hell I'm doing right. There is a very loose system I use if you can call it that but it serves me very well. The only losses I make are when I ignore the 'rules'.

I do find these, "I can't trade and don't know anybody else who can!" posts really amusing

[evolve]

Not that it mattered, though. Since you earn so much by buy/hold, as Vladimir does, all trading is just a icing on the bonus.

You don't earn anything by buying and holding, you earn by taking profits (selling); unrealized gains are worth exactly zero.

[NikolaTesla]

Not that it mattered, though. Since you earn so much by buy/hold, as Vladimir does, all trading is just a icing on the bonus.

You don't earn anything by buying and holding, you earn by taking profits (selling); unrealized gains are worth exactly zero.

Ah but you're forgetting this is a currency with which you can actually buy things Not that anyone here does.

[ronaldlee0917]

Yes
It is a pain in the @ss for not having bitcoins during an uptrend

[notme]

Yes
It is a pain in the @ss for not having bitcoins during an uptrend

That's easy to fix... never sell all your bitcoins .

[simplydt]

Stop looking for someone to tell you to go in and make your own decision. If you go based on someone elses decision, when you make a loss you will ignore it as someone elses fault and never take responsibility for it 

[piramida]

Stop looking for someone to tell you to go in and make your own decision. If you go based on someone elses decision, when you make a loss you will ignore it as someone elses fault and never take responsibility for it  

Wow, smart reply in a silly thread, unexpected, thank you sir! Too much people asking to be spoon-fed here.

[turboblade]

I believe some individual or small group with millions of dollars is manipulating the market, starting rallies that are so convincing that everyone piles in, believing the climb won't stop until we hit $1 million per bitcoin, then flash crashes so devastating that people sell everything in a panic.  The manipulators profit by doing most of their buying early in the rallies, when prices are low, and massive selling at the start of the crashes, while prices are still high.

Their moves are sufficiently random that the only way to accurately predict the tops and bottoms is to be privy to they plans of the manipulators.  However, we can expect them to keep doing the things they have been doing.  They tend to create 1 or 2 small flash crashes each week, varying in size from 15% to 40%.  I also suspect that they will invoke another major crash within the next few months.  

Even though I cannot predict the tops and bottoms, I believe it is possible to profit from this artificial volativity by placing limit orders to automatically sell on the way up, and then to re-buy on the crashes.

For example, every time the price goes up 5% you could sell 1% of your holdings.  As soon as that sell executes, you place a buy order for more coins at a 15% lower price.  When that re-buy executes during a small downturn, you re-place the sell order at the higher price.  I currently have 21 sell orders placed between $162 and $222, and 11 buy orders between $109 and $139.  Every time a sell/buy pair executes, I gain 15% more bitcoins.

I think it's a safe bet that the price will rise again to $250 or more, suffering several flash crashes on the way, and then crash again to less than $100.  My system makes money every time I get out and in, and when we crash back to $100 again, I should have considerably more coins than when I started.  Also, by selling into rallies and buying into corrections, I help stabilize the price a bit.  If more people would adopt this system, we might foil the manipulation scheme entirely.

Your case is different, since you're starting with fiat.  I think I would place buy orders ranging from about $100 to perhaps 10% below the current price.  As the price rises, keep adding more buys.  When we hit the next flash crash, you will certainly hit some of those buys.  Immediately place an order to resell those coins at a 25% profit.  When those sells execute, use the proceeds to place buys 15% lower.

Or if that's too much work, you could wait for the next major crash.  It could take several months, and there's no way to call the exact bottom.  But you could wait until 24 hours after a devastating crash, buy in, then gradually sell as the price starts going up again.

The key is to avoid panic buying when the price is high and panic selling after the price drops!

Yes this makes sense but I have two questions:

1. What exchange do you use for these buy and sell orders
2. You say you sell 1% of your holdings, how much do you buy back each time

[jzcjca00]

I believe some individual or small group with millions of dollars is manipulating the market, starting rallies that are so convincing that everyone piles in, believing the climb won't stop until we hit $1 million per bitcoin, then flash crashes so devastating that people sell everything in a panic.  The manipulators profit by doing most of their buying early in the rallies, when prices are low, and massive selling at the start of the crashes, while prices are still high.

Their moves are sufficiently random that the only way to accurately predict the tops and bottoms is to be privy to they plans of the manipulators.  However, we can expect them to keep doing the things they have been doing.  They tend to create 1 or 2 small flash crashes each week, varying in size from 15% to 40%.  I also suspect that they will invoke another major crash within the next few months.  

Even though I cannot predict the tops and bottoms, I believe it is possible to profit from this artificial volativity by placing limit orders to automatically sell on the way up, and then to re-buy on the crashes.

For example, every time the price goes up 5% you could sell 1% of your holdings.  As soon as that sell executes, you place a buy order for more coins at a 15% lower price.  When that re-buy executes during a small downturn, you re-place the sell order at the higher price.  I currently have 21 sell orders placed between $162 and $222, and 11 buy orders between $109 and $139.  Every time a sell/buy pair executes, I gain 15% more bitcoins.

I think it's a safe bet that the price will rise again to $250 or more, suffering several flash crashes on the way, and then crash again to less than $100.  My system makes money every time I get out and in, and when we crash back to $100 again, I should have considerably more coins than when I started.  Also, by selling into rallies and buying into corrections, I help stabilize the price a bit.  If more people would adopt this system, we might foil the manipulation scheme entirely.

Your case is different, since you're starting with fiat.  I think I would place buy orders ranging from about $100 to perhaps 10% below the current price.  As the price rises, keep adding more buys.  When we hit the next flash crash, you will certainly hit some of those buys.  Immediately place an order to resell those coins at a 25% profit.  When those sells execute, use the proceeds to place buys 15% lower.

Or if that's too much work, you could wait for the next major crash.  It could take several months, and there's no way to call the exact bottom.  But you could wait until 24 hours after a devastating crash, buy in, then gradually sell as the price starts going up again.

The key is to avoid panic buying when the price is high and panic selling after the price drops!

Yes this makes sense but I have two questions:

1. What exchange do you use for these buy and sell orders
2. You say you sell 1% of your holdings, how much do you buy back each time

Thanks for asking.

I'm currently using Mt.Gox, but I suspect the manipulators operate on multiple exchanges, and it would not hurt for others to use my strategy other places.  In fact, I think it's better if the true believers operate independently, rather than all doing exactly the same thing at exactly the same time.  For example, if they knew exactly where we planned to buy and sell, they could time their crashes to start slightly below a sell point and end slightly above a buy point.

I buy back each time using 100% of my proceeds (less commissions).  Since I buy back at about 15% lower price, I wind up with about 17% more bitcoins than I started with.  At this moment I have 11 outstanding buy orders between $109 and $139, each reflecting a total reinvestment of the proceeds of a sell at a higher price.  The total cost of those buy orders is the same as the amount of fiat in my account.  I started this strategy with lots of bitcoins and zero fiat in the account.  If we crash down below $109, I will have zero fiat and considerably more bitcoins than I started with.

[Zaih]

chuck it in sir

[phorensic]

OP - BUY!!!!

[NikolaTesla]

Haha, it's a good thing I didn't take the advice from this poll!

This forum is full of ridiculous perma-bulls.

[antimattercrusader]

Even if you had bought in at $155.. you'd be good. Unless you want to make money in <30 mins, then you'd be assbanged by a mag lite.

Anyway, you're looking at a good time to buy here pretty soon.

[bitcon]

just keep us all updated when you do buy back in so we can determine if your bearish sentiment has stuck with you.

[notme]

Fuck manual trading... if you don't trade with a system you're going to lose.  If you're trading with a system, and you don't stick to it, you're going to lose.

If you have to trade with a system and you have to stick to it, use a bot.

with https://github.com/yrral86/rubybot if I want to sell, I send the bitcoins to the exchange.  I will either not trade(price goes down, no usd yet), have a profit in terms of bitcoin (if it goes up and then down), or I get better than the current price for my bitcoins.

With my current round, I started it at $125/bitcoin.  I'm just using play money right now, but I'm currently short 1.52 bitcoins with a base price of $142.  Sure, I'm behind a bit same as you, but my bids are in place at bitcoin-denominated profit points in case it dips.  I've got enough I'm holding, so I'm willing to reduce my exposure a bit and add liquidity to the market so that when the dips come I can help soften them.

The same round is still going.  I'm currently short 0.577 btc at a base price of $146.94.  This means I can rebuy at any point before $146.94 to lock in bitcon profits, or just take the usd off the table if I am looking to sell.

I love it when the market is conflicted.