A Reality Check

[Chucksta]

It's funny and most excellent, that I was aiming to buy a 2nd computer in June, so that I could have them both botting, but one as a WoW golf farmer, and the other Poker botting

Then I discovered Bitcoin, then Namecoins, now I am $1 up and I have 3 new computers full paid for.

So, once this ends, I'll have 2 machines poker botting, and 2 machine WoW gold farming

Thank you BTC and NMC people

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[Gameover]

[Synaptic]

$2.95 a day means you paid for the card in 1 month. everything it makes after that is pure profit. and most people building mining rigs have at least 4 cards so thats almost $12 a day or $360 a month for sitting on your ass.

Just this evening I had one card that was overheating (=84 degrees or higher) which I had to solve...

Matthew

Just wanted to say, that is NOT overheating. Newer cards can happily blaze along at 90C without detriment.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Except I've had problems *several times* with OC'd cards crapping out when they get any kind of hot. It's true that cards are more sensitive to heat when you OC.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Its really hard to be able to look into the future with a crystal ball. But, at least with bitcoins, it seems like we have a clearer picture than most "economic" phenomenon

At the end of the day, the price per bitcoin is going to end up pairing with how difficult it is to get them, and how much people want them.
Its simple supply and demand.

So right now, as we speak, there's MORE supply than there will be later. That's a fact.

Assuming the demand stays the same, that alone would increase the price.
The tightening of supply increase, with stable demand = bitcoins +

What will happen is those that give up mining will sell their rigs
Some will sell their rigs for bitcoins + demand

Some will sell their rigs for cash. X amount of those people will convert some of that money into bitcoins to

Continue as part of the community + demand
to simply speculate prices and still try to make money +demand

What number is that X? I don't know. But its more than ZERO. And can only be beneficial for the bitcoin.

One thing you have to keep in mind -- scarcity does NOT make something valuable in dollars. People have to WANT THEM as well.

If scarcity were the only factor, then my fingernails would be worth $200/ounce. After all, there's only one of me, and I can only produce so many fractions of an ounce of fingernail per week!

So you see, there's more to it than just difficulty.  I know, Bitcoins are cool, but there are still *major* obstacles to widespread adoption.

A smart poster on here brought it up a while ago -- he called it the "parents test". Here's how it works: You tell your parents about Bitcoin. Then you leave them with the request, "Now buy some Bitcoin". NOT do it for them. NOT stand over their shoulder as they buy some. Just tell them to buy some! Report back here how it goes. Hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised.

But think about it: Many of us clever PC techs, programmers, etc. had to read up on how Bitcoin works for a day or two before we (mostly) understood it. Do you think an old Baby Boomer who types e-mails in ALL CAPS is going to want to buy and use Bitcoin?
Sadly, I doubt it.

Matthew

[Lightspeed]

I pay fixed electricity bill @ $10 fortnight and my landlords cant meter my usage so I essentially pay 0 for electricity

Plus This is a great fulltime hobby atm for me

So i'd say I will outlast most of the peeps just in it for cash easily

[AngelusWebDesign]

Until your landlord gets the first $500 electric bill -- beware, your electricity arrangement could change real quick.

Same goes for all the kiddos in Mom's basement -- wait till Mom gets an electric bill for $400 instead of the usual $200 -- times aren't exactly booming out there in the economy -- money is tighter for pretty much everyone, even upper-middle class.

[Capitan]

Until your landlord gets the first $500 electric bill -- beware, your electricity arrangement could change real quick.

Same goes for all the kiddos in Mom's basement -- wait till Mom gets an electric bill for $400 instead of the usual $200 -- times aren't exactly booming out there in the economy -- money is tighter for pretty much everyone, even upper-middle class.

I know. Every time I read about someone saying that mining will be profitable for them because their parents or someone else pays electricity, I laugh and think of this. I haven't lived with my parents since I was 17 years old, but I know that when I did, if the electricity bill went up by more than $20 they would start asking questions. $100 increase, which is about what you'd see in a lot of peoples' setups, and my parents would have flipped out.

If you want to become anti-competitive you could always contact the dorms at big schools and tell them why their electricity bills are climbing.

[Hook^]

Unfortunately for the miners (including myself), I think competition and growth will bring the profit/electricity cost ratio all the way down to 1:1 eventually. If there's money to be made, even only a little, people will take it because, as you say, it's easy money (after you factor in all the headaches!)

My spreadsheet estimates predict 60 days.  But that is at $20/bitcoin.  They may go up and extend net loss point out.  But still, it would have been better to buy bitcoins directly.