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Author Topic: Predicting market/exchange movement visually (by looking at a historical graph)  (Read 1216 times)
Lgetty17
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April 26, 2013, 06:27:30 AM
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I guess my first post didnt go through...

I feel like there is a certain "look" to the curve when the trend is increasing, and a different one when it is decreasing.. or, more precisely, when the second derivative of the overall trend changes +/-. Specifically, when the second derivative becomes negative, the downward part of each "spike", or wave, is much sharper. It also seems like the upwards, first half of the wave is less. I guess this is due to the upward force weakening... But yeah, anyways, does anyone else try and do this? Instead of looking at numbers and indexes and the like, do any of you guys actually try to get a feel for the market VISUALLY? I have always been a very visual person... I look for patterns everywhere. I guess it is only natural that i do this
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tutkarz
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April 26, 2013, 06:50:37 AM
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Most people are acting like sheep's and just selling and buying when others are doing the same and simply loosing money in the process Wink
Just make your own way of investing and dont share it on the forums becuase it will not work anymore

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April 26, 2013, 08:16:49 AM
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It's called Technical analysis, and there are quite opposite views of its usefulness. 
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April 26, 2013, 10:27:04 AM
 #4

I guess my first post didnt go through...

I feel like there is a certain "look" to the curve when the trend is increasing, and a different one when it is decreasing.. or, more precisely, when the second derivative of the overall trend changes +/-. Specifically, when the second derivative becomes negative, the downward part of each "spike", or wave, is much sharper. It also seems like the upwards, first half of the wave is less. I guess this is due to the upward force weakening... But yeah, anyways, does anyone else try and do this? Instead of looking at numbers and indexes and the like, do any of you guys actually try to get a feel for the market VISUALLY? I have always been a very visual person... I look for patterns everywhere. I guess it is only natural that i do this

Congrats. You just invented Trend Analysis Smiley

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
wiggi
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April 28, 2013, 07:05:32 PM
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I feel like there is a certain "look" to the curve when the trend is increasing, and a different one when it is decreasing.. or, more precisely, when the second derivative of the overall trend changes +/-. Specifically, when the second derivative becomes negative, the downward part of each "spike", or wave, is much sharper. It also seems like the upwards, first half of the wave is less. I guess this is due to the upward force weakening...

Most of the time it's randomness, fooling you...
jimhsu
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April 28, 2013, 09:16:05 PM
Last edit: April 28, 2013, 09:39:17 PM by jimhsu
 #6

No, actually, it's called loss aversion. People tend to strongly prefer avoiding losses relative to acquiring gains, even if both forces are "strong". This has generally been understood as the source of violent declines (as well as rises) that are more frequent in bear markets, for a few centuries of history. (Interestingly, newer studies discount the phenomenon of loss aversion to instead prefer a competition-oriented model - behavioral finance is still an evolving field).

And also no, sharing "investing strategies" does not make them any less valid; on the contrary, technical analysis "works" because people know about it (i.e. self-fulfilling prophecy) -- it's the exceptions that get you. People have been screaming about PE10 for the last couple of decades -- look how well that worked during the internet bubble and financial bubble. Now if someone wants to sell you a "proprietary investment strategy" or "wants you to invest in his strategy that he can't disclose because ... well, it's secret", those people you run away from, 10-foot pole or no.

"This time it's different". No, it never is.

Dans les champs de l'observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparé
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