Litecoin Network Hashrate Projections

[esenminer]

I've been looking at rise in the litecoin network hashrates lately - of course some of that increase is from new miners with new rigs but if we assume that the increase in hashrate is primarily from Bitcoin GPU miners moving over from Bitcoin to Litecoin then we can make a very rough approximation of where Litecoin hashing rates will go in the next 6-9 months or so (when ASICs are all delivered and plugged in)

1) ASICs became available around March 1st - at that point the bitcoin network was around 30000 gh/s - assume that this was mostly from GPU miners (ignore FPGAs) and that the subsequent increase in bitcoin network hashrates were form asics only.

2) Assume that all these miners will start mining litecoin.

3) Assume 30000 gh/s translates roughly to 30000 mh/s - this is only from my observations that when you compare the bitcoin mining rig hash rates with the litecoin they are approximately the same except for a power of 10^3. For example 7950 gets around 600 mh/s for bitcoin and 600 kh/s for litecoin.

4) Add that 30000 mh/s to the current litecoin network hashrate of 12000 mh/s to get a final litecoin network rate of 42000 mh/s

5) At a rate of 42000 mh/s the difficulty will be around 1525 (approx)

So in summary in 6-9 months litecoin difficulty might be around 1525.

In terms of mining this means that you'll be getting only 1/4 of what you're getting today from our rigs however price will also increase so in absolute terms we'll probably end up making the same amount of money.

Thoughts? Does this seem reasonable? Have I missed or miscalculated something?

[bigscot]

You may be right on your calcs but it does not mean they will move to LTC. Many may just sell off there GPU and fund ASIC miners. And even if they do not, there are more then just LTC out there, so if there is a mass move off not everyone will be going to LTC.

[esenminer]

I hope that they don't all move to Litecoin! I was just curious about the worst case scenario when I was doing some profitability calculations. Network hashrate for litecoin just jumped from 12gh/s to 16gh/s. Normally there seems to be a spike around this time - probably as miners who only mine while their sleeping setup their computers to mine but this is he highest I've ever seen it - probably highest it's been but I can't seem to find a historical chart or data.