What price must BTC/USD be to get more ASIC manufacteurs?

[adaseb]

Mining is more profitable now than it was since the halving.

During the early Avalon days (Gen 1 tech) and the MtGox Bankruptcy (Gen 2 tech) there were tons of manufacturers.

I can name Avalon, Bitfury, Butterfly Labs, KNC Miner, TerraMiner, SP, Bitmain, ASICMiner, BlackArrow, Hashfast, etc, etc.

I am guessing that back then since there was less competition and less miners out on the market there were profits to be gained so manufactures kept popping up.

Now that BTC/USD is rising faster than difficulty can keep up. At what price again do you think manufactures will get into developing miners?

Or is the 16nm technology simply too complex and expensive compared to the early 50-100nm technology that miners were originally made with.

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[2112]

It is neither too complex or too expensive. The opposite is true: it is remarkably simple and remarkably cheap. The main problem facing the Bitcoin mining hardware manufacturers is that they cannot obtain proper design expertise, neither as employers or as contractors. Simply speaking: nobody really knowledgeable wants to work for/with them.

From my past discussions:

1) extreme short-termism and insistence on pushing contractual terms that are not technically appropriate for the product
2) psychological/social problems dealing with Bitcoin mining entrepreneurs: a strange mixture of pyramid/multi-level-marketing outlook with sectarian/religious fervor (imagine mixing AmWay with Scientology)

ASICminer people were the only ones willing to admit to difficulty hiring/contracting and only did that briefly and to Chinese-only audience.

[Iranus]

Bitcoin's price won't consistently rise too quick for the difficulty to keep up.  As the price keeps rising, people will decide that mining is more profitable and who will they turn to first?  Bitmain.  Just because everyone else does it - like a herd of sheep really.

Bitmain's monopoly is so significant that to usurp their position would take thousands and thousands of Bitcoin in marketing and even more working on efficiency in a fairly marginal market.

Even worse - because of this, any company who can afford to create a machine better than Bitmain's (and it would have to be quite a bit better) would be evil themselves, and thus the effort to decentralise the market wouldn't be as helpful as we'd think at first at all.

[QuintLeo]

There are currently at least 6 companies that have designed 14/16nm mining chips and put them into production (Innosilicon designed the A3 but it apparently never hit full production sorta making 7).
The issue is that only 2 of them (Bitmain and Avalon) currently sell miner units direct to individual small miners and that BitFury has been VERY slow about making chips available to their potential 3'd party miner manufacturers, not that there aren't enough companies with the chip designs to provide competition.