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Author Topic: How to make a GOOD prediction?  (Read 2243 times)
Yakamoto
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May 16, 2017, 04:15:29 AM
 #41

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

there isn't really any formula or any easy way to say if (this + that) then (price rise) and if (these + those) then (price drop).
but there are many things to consider.

i like starting with some technical analysis, i am still learning it but it can tell you that it is helpful to know it than not know it.

then in this market usually we should follow the news. specially in altcoins. they only move with hype aka news about them. the news doesn't have to even be true. for example we saw recently that ethereum got pumped for another time with a fake news about etf!
I've never found a technical analysis to be very effective with Bitcoin unless it is based on watching macro trends and not anything shorter, with next to no influencing factors from the outside.

News seems to have way too big of a role within cryptos and any new article can throw the price into the green or red at the drop of a hat, and that's something that I just really don't like. The market volatility is fine, but the influence news has (with or without evidence) is just something I don't appreciate in the slightest.

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May 16, 2017, 06:47:44 AM
 #42

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

As far as I know there is no scientifically proven formula to make predictions 100% true, but there are a lot of methods to increase the probability of the right prediction. But using those methods you should always remember that no way you are safe from failing with them.

No one can make accurate predictions, even if he has a lot of experience and a lot of experience, this is always a risk.

Yes, but still taking into account the critical factors we can make a more or less accurate prediction. For example, if government of a big country announces its recognition of certain cryptocurrencies we can expect that those cryptocurrencies will rise in value in the nearest future.

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May 16, 2017, 07:36:19 AM
 #43

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

As far as I know there is no scientifically proven formula to make predictions 100% true, but there are a lot of methods to increase the probability of the right prediction. But using those methods you should always remember that no way you are safe from failing with them.

No one can make accurate predictions, even if he has a lot of experience and a lot of experience, this is always a risk.

Yes, but still taking into account the critical factors we can make a more or less accurate prediction. For example, if government of a big country announces its recognition of certain cryptocurrencies we can expect that those cryptocurrencies will rise in value in the nearest future.
That types of announcements are very rare but most powerful to impact in larger scale. Hence obviously everyone will be taking them into consideration for predicting price movements of crypto currencies. Honestly I'm not believing in to following news for predicting about the future of crypto currencies.

Because I am already comfortable with my technical analysis as it is much easier to do everyday regardless of how extremely markets are trading.
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May 16, 2017, 07:43:17 AM
 #44

i just follow the demand, and if the value stay for a very long time at the same price you know that a pump or an increase is coming, you know that the bottom is touched

but you will never know how high that increase will go, also following the good news help in bitcoin, or any alt, they are a good indicators for an imminent pump the same for bad news and a dump
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May 16, 2017, 07:43:49 AM
 #45

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

If we know the secret to this then everyone will be rich but the issue is that most of the decisions are just based on guesses which is mostly influenced by factors outside the decision maker itself. And the moment the decision is made the next thing is to wait whether it will worth it or a waste of time and resources the moment it does we are happy if it does not, we move on to the next decision and the cycle continues.
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May 16, 2017, 08:13:39 AM
 #46

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

As far as I know there is no scientifically proven formula to make predictions 100% true, but there are a lot of methods to increase the probability of the right prediction. But using those methods you should always remember that no way you are safe from failing with them.

No one can make accurate predictions, even if he has a lot of experience and a lot of experience, this is always a risk.

Yes, but still taking into account the critical factors we can make a more or less accurate prediction. For example, if government of a big country announces its recognition of certain cryptocurrencies we can expect that those cryptocurrencies will rise in value in the nearest future.

Announcements are completely different from prediction because predictions are completely based on the knowledge you have on the cryptos. Sometimes our predictions will go wrong because cryptos price raise are based on the developments made by the company and people who are actively supporting it.


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May 16, 2017, 08:25:20 AM
 #47

Having a good prediction is looking for the obvious first like in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency you must know what's dominating and what can hinder their dominance for example in Bitcoin the price can be affected by news about banning it or anything about its legality, the price can be affected in a bad way. Basically anything from economics to news can help you have an accurate prediction.

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May 16, 2017, 08:44:23 AM
 #48

Understanding the cryptocurrency market at a macroeconomic level. Is the money going into Bitcoin right now, or away and into Altcoins? Take into account the fundamentals of the currency and whether its pumping season or not and your halfway there.Technical analysis and fib retracements usually help but can never gaurantee the expected outcome.

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May 16, 2017, 09:05:23 AM
 #49

Usually I will read the news or find information about bitcoin before i make my own predictions.

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May 16, 2017, 10:36:52 AM
 #50

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

The good predictor is one who are in touch with market that what is the trend going in market and which currency is at the top, and which current has potential to reach top position in the market. And read opinions of different people and then make your decision.
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May 16, 2017, 11:10:24 AM
 #51

Usually I will read the news or find information about bitcoin before i make my own predictions.

This is one of the very basic and essential to understand first the product and its characteristics and then knowing which news is important and relevant which could drive the price of bitcoin up and down. There would be many news but not all are important in perspective where price of bitcoin could significantly move. Also global news and local news with good technical analysis of price charts will help you more to derive the price and its future value.

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May 16, 2017, 11:36:24 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2017, 11:50:37 AM by pey
 #52

Sometimes I don't trust even myself and make a random decision.
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May 16, 2017, 11:50:28 AM
 #53

Usually in predicting a future value of a coins, what is available tool used is the Technical analysis. In technical analysis, you have to analyses the previous trades with its graphs because as they say "history repeats itself" meaning previous rally,pump etc means to be repeated. There is also the fundamental analysis as a tool. Both of this can be an aid to make prediction or assumption and can be use in making decisions.
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May 16, 2017, 12:08:08 PM
 #54

Its not possible to make an accurate prediction and anyone who does make a good prediction is just lucky and could never repeat that success. As they say even a broken watch is right twice a day.
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May 16, 2017, 01:14:47 PM
 #55

Its not possible to make an accurate prediction and anyone who does make a good prediction is just lucky and could never repeat that success. As they say even a broken watch is right twice a day.
Exactly, a prediction can never be actually 100% right because there is no way to know exactly all the factors that account for BTC's price change, you might know few things here and there and make your prediction based on that(mostly by being informed of the news) but that will not guarantee a correct prediction.
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May 16, 2017, 02:48:43 PM
 #56

Its not possible to make an accurate prediction and anyone who does make a good prediction is just lucky and could never repeat that success. As they say even a broken watch is right twice a day.
Exactly, a prediction can never be actually 100% right because there is no way to know exactly all the factors that account for BTC's price change, you might know few things here and there and make your prediction based on that(mostly by being informed of the news) but that will not guarantee a correct prediction.
well you're bith right that there's no way we can make a perfect prediction though experiences can make you at least have a decent one. once you've already seen a lot about how alt coins move, you can make a smart prediction based on past trades that most of the time can be a profitable one.

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May 16, 2017, 08:55:18 PM
 #57

A person would probably need inside sources at banks, the SEC, bitcoin unlimited and governments around the world to make an informed prediction.

They would need to know weeks or months in advance that japan, russia and australia were planning to accept bitcoin/crypto as legitimate currency. They would need to know what bitcoin unlimited and the SEC have planned. As well as other inside info that hasn't come into play with bitcoin's price recently but may make a difference in the future.

There are big questions revolving around the united states being $20 trillion in debt and various "de-dollarization" plans to cope with the fallout of worse case scenarios relating to the us dollar functioning as the "reserve currency" of many nations, which must also be answered.

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May 17, 2017, 08:49:28 AM
 #58

Could it BTC or any other crypto, how do you make a good prediction?

What information do you collect, from where and -if there is any- what scientifically proven formula do you use?

I also would be interested in your success rates. Success is, when your prediction comes true.

As far as I know there is no scientifically proven formula to make predictions 100% true, but there are a lot of methods to increase the probability of the right prediction. But using those methods you should always remember that no way you are safe from failing with them.

No one can make accurate predictions, even if he has a lot of experience and a lot of experience, this is always a risk.

Yes, but still taking into account the critical factors we can make a more or less accurate prediction. For example, if government of a big country announces its recognition of certain cryptocurrencies we can expect that those cryptocurrencies will rise in value in the nearest future.

Announcements are completely different from prediction because predictions are completely based on the knowledge you have on the cryptos. Sometimes our predictions will go wrong because cryptos price raise are based on the developments made by the company and people who are actively supporting it.

If you are talking about cryptos with Marketcap under $2 million you are absolutely right because it is feasible for developers to pump such a coin. But but dealing with cryptos like Ripple and Ethereum it's almost absolutely impossible to manipulate them.

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May 17, 2017, 09:43:03 AM
 #59

There are only two things taken for granted in the live. Death and taxes.

In the bitcoin world only two things are certain. So you certainly can bet on those two things:

1. When bitcoin price rise too much, it must fall and vice versa, when bitcoin price fall too much it must bounce back. The matter of how to define "too much" is a matter of taste.

2. Most likely bitcoin will rise as its proven time and time again.

Other than that the RSI might help, fibonacci retracement and other analitical tools.
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May 17, 2017, 09:55:15 AM
 #60

Having a good source of knowledge about anything you  go into specially when it involves money through it.You can make good predictions about any market or anything by having good knowledge source and a brokers info

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The Most   ──────────────────────────
Profitable Mining
No Cooling Costs
No Rental
Cheap Electricity
Lifetime Profit
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Join Ice Rock Mining Private Pre-Sale

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