Nice post!
Your
1.8%/day figure actually coincides very well with my calculations suggesting
1,67%/day based on the recent disclosure of Mark Carpelles (MtGox Boss) about how much money flows in and out of MtGox:
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
New envelope calculation!
April 10th 2013: The bubble has reached its highest peak of 266 USD at a nominal market cap of 2614M USD (2.6 Billion $$$). The ensueing consolidation around 120 USD suggests a "true market cap" of 933M USD during the last peak if we take into account that roughly 33% of all coins in existence are currently inaccessible (lost) or will not move till some time after the next bubble (cold storage or long time savings) [1400M USD (1.4 Billion $$$)*0.66= 933M USD]
Since April 10th 2013 around 20M USD daily have flown into the Bitcoin economy through the exchanges, adding up to 280M USD to date or 30% of the "true market cap" (933M USD) of the bubble's peak.
May 10th 2013: One month later and 600M USD will have grown the Bitcoin economy, raising the level of April 10th' "true market cap" by 64% to 1533M USD. If there would be another bubble rocket by then it would have 64% more fuel to fligh to the sky.
If this day would mark another peak, it would range at 437 USD/BTC (1.64*266USD/BTC=437USD/BTC)
Can we assume that the market cap during a consolidation period after a bubble has burst indicates it's "true market cap"?
Can we also assume that the size of this true market cap indicates the hight of the next bubble?
