Silk road down for over 24 hours now.

[Wuji]

The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

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[notme]

The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

[hugolp]

The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

Its obvious that a lot of Silkroaders (or however they want to be called) are cashing out at least part of their bitcoins as they are able to access the site. A lot of the sellers are not "Bitcoin believers" like most of the early adopters, but just drug sellers that are using Bitcoin because its useful (which is fine), so they tend to preffer holding fiat more than bitcoins, specially now that there is uncertainty. As more people access SR and have access to the funds more selling presure will appear. I think they will regret it long term and in a few years they wish they had kept their bitcoins, but you can not fault them for wanting something they are more familiar with and cashing out if they are not really into Bitcoin as a monetary system changer but just as a useful method to sell drugs.

[samson]

The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.

[arepo]

The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.

i'm fairly confident that these selloffs were a significant proportion coins of SR vendors. that being said, the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

[Krabby]

The site is back up now, no telling how long.  I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell.  At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin.  No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return.  Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.

Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?

I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.

 the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

Can you explain this to me?

[arepo]

the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

Can you explain this to me?

of course.

'overbought' and 'oversold' signals are usually given by oscillators, a special kind of technical indicator.

oscillators measure something that is comparable to the intuitive notion of the 'momentum' of price. since a general rule of markets is 'what goes up must go down', we can use oscillators to see the magnitude of the net 'upness' versus the magnitude of the net 'downness' in a given time frame, and anticipate corrections based on their proportions.

-===-

*1-month 6-hour scale*



-===-

if the two oscillators are legible to you, the red splotches indicate periods of 'overbuying', where the net upness was high for a long period of time. notice how we have spent a lot of time in the overbought region in the mid- and long-term (mid-term circled in green, long-term not shown), and just left the overbought zone in the William's oscillator in the short-term (circled in blue).

further, we can interpret the current downward trending of both oscillators as a downward trend in 'price momentum', which both anticipated the sell-offs we just witnessed, as well as suggests that the market may be preparing for a major correction in the immediate future.

hope that was clear enough -- are you familiar with these indicators at all?

--arepo

[Krabby]

the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.

Can you explain this to me?

of course.

'overbought' and 'oversold' signals are usually given by oscillators, a special kind of technical indicator.

oscillators measure something that is comparable to the intuitive notion of the 'momentum' of price. since a general rule of markets is 'what goes up must go down', we can use oscillators to see the magnitude of the net 'upness' versus the magnitude of the net 'downness' in a given time frame, and anticipate corrections based on their proportions.

-===-

*1-month 6-hour scale*

*snip*

-===-

if the two oscillators are legible to you, the red splotches indicate periods of 'overbuying', where the net upness was high for a long period of time. notice how we have spent a lot of time in the overbought region in the mid- and long-term (mid-term circled in green, long-term not shown), and just left the overbought zone in the William's oscillator in the short-term (circled in blue).

further, we can interpret the current downward trending of both oscillators as a downward trend in 'price momentum', which both anticipated the sell-offs we just witnessed, as well as suggests that the market may be preparing for a major correction in the immediate future.

hope that was clear enough -- are you familiar with these indicators at all?

--arepo

Ah, thank you for that (detailed) explanation. Great contribution to the community ^.^
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment .
I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.

Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.

[arepo]

Ah, thank you for that (detailed) explanation. Great contribution to the community ^.^
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment .
I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.

Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.

no problem

in regards to the Y-axis:

oscillators are usually rational transforms of price and volume data -- that is they look like fractions, having the form N/D for some N(price, volume) and D(price, volume).

this allows them to move within a fixed range for any (price, volume) input: 100 to 0, or 0 to -100. this would make the equilibrium or 'neutral' point the midline -- 50 on the RSI and -50 on the William's oscillator.

it'll take time to familiarize yourself with what the figures represent, but they can be very useful.

i hope my follow up worked for further clarification.

--arepo

[Wuji]

I have worked with some graphs in trading to make money but, they are usually a tiny piece of a puzzle.  News reports are a much greater impact on price than any graph can predict.  We should have a competition for those who claim to make money using charts.  Post your charts with your prediction, put in your orders, take some screen shots, and then show us your profit.  For some reason no one ever seems to do this. My theory is that 99% of graph theory tends to be hindsight as it fails to take in most important factors in price movement.  If I'm wrong it should be really simple to make predictions and profit and prove me wrong, right?  I bet anyone who can successfully day trade Bitcoin for 30-60 days could get us to pool in a few million and all get super rich.  I wont hold my breath.

[meangreen]

im thinking there might be a little more pain, just based on the fact that alot of people are at work, sleeping or havent been able to get on still to the silk road. BUT I think in the short term still upward mo imo.