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Author Topic: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.  (Read 4167 times)
Tasty Champa
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June 19, 2011, 12:00:06 AM
 #41

guy 1: my math is better than yours.
guy 2: math is fun, on acid.
guy 3: whilst factoring in the trajectory of the sun's movement through the universe, I no longer require math.
guy 1: nuh uh!
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Hook^
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June 19, 2011, 12:02:50 AM
 #42

I am currently hitting more btc per day than the calculators say I should, when that stops I might actually believe your spreadshit...til then keep trolling, just don't expect me to drink the Kool-aid.

There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.
Fair enough.  So you will be willing to talk in a couple of months about your total return without hostility then?
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June 19, 2011, 12:11:26 AM
 #43

There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.

No magic in my math.  It's just that the online calculators don't take the average computing power growth of the network into account.  This is a huge shame, in my opinion, because that is the killer.

Check out this graph of the growth of the bitcoin network:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Keep in mind that the same number of bitcoins per day are produced no matter what.  You have to compete with more and more computer horsepower every day, so your proportion of the day's output decreases 4% a day.  That is the problem.
BouerBouer
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June 19, 2011, 12:16:42 AM
 #44

As others have said, if you build a PC exclusively for mining, then yes, there will probably be a loss.

However, if you only mine as a hobby, i.e. leave it on when you're surfing the web, then there isn't a loss. I'm currently only running about 30MHash/second using both my GPU and CPU, but I'm planning on upgrading the graphics card to a Radeon HD 6670. According to the Hardware Comparison entry on the Bitcoin wiki, I'll get about 180MHash/sec. Now the card costs £100. Realistically, if I ran it for as often as I could do, say 300 days a year, that would be about 54 Bitcoins in total.

Which is equivelant to about £486 a year, so about £286 net profit. Which is pretty damn good for a hobby, IMO. Not to mention I'd be able to play better games on this computer as well. Smiley
Swishercutter
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June 19, 2011, 12:28:03 AM
 #45

There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.

No magic in my math.  It's just that the online calculators don't take the average computing power growth of the network into account.  This is a huge shame, in my opinion, because that is the killer.

Check out this graph of the growth of the bitcoin network:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Keep in mind that the same number of bitcoins per day are produced no matter what.  You have to compete with more and more computer horsepower every day, so your proportion of the day's output decreases 4% a day.  That is the problem.


So in your estimates is BTC value going down, staying equal or going up...that is what really makes the difference...I am banking on it either staying the same or going up...$24 in the next coming weeks in my eyes is not unreasonable.  $30 was overinflated for the old difficulty.  

My main problem with your arguments is that none of your posts have done anything to help the bitcoin community...just discredit it.  There is a pattern that emerges with threads like yours.

1) They have never mined (or they have so recently purchased hardware they have yet to even try)
2) They typically have very few posts in the forum
3) They are usually new.
4) They all come with math and/or spreadsheets which are different from everyone elses.
5) There has been a sudden surge in these types of threads all over the internet...people seem real concerned about keeping people away.

You can call me paranoid all you want...I am not alone in thinking there is a massive smear campaign going on.  The facts stand that in the 3 weeks I have been posting I have had no problems with Mt.gox, my bitcoin client disappearing or with my estimated profits being unreasonable...you have managed to have all those problems in 5 days...in my eyes either you are in on it or you are too stupid to be attempting mining...either way I don't care about your opinions and they seem to only be here to sway others.

You read my posts most are either trying to out trolls or help others with their hardware...I got into this the same way I get into every investment...with the knowledge that there could be total failure.  Anyone looking to get into mining do the same...have a backup plan to your backup plan to back up your backup plan...there is no such thing as get rich quick (if there is I have never seen it and it is probably very risky).
billiophile
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June 19, 2011, 12:28:54 AM
 #46

Buy a 5830 instead (see my post re: 2 x 5830 on the cheap). It's currently at £72. OK, it's more power hungry than the 6670 but the hashrate / game performance should be better.
JTaBitCoinKing
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June 19, 2011, 12:35:12 AM
 #47

When the price of the Bitcoin goes up, the number of miners mining goes up. When the price of the Bitcoin goes down the number of miners mining goes down. This all adds up to a situation where mining for bit coins is, overall, a 1 to 1 ratio.

The value going in is the value coming out.

It's in playing the market where you make your money.
Hook^
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June 19, 2011, 12:38:55 AM
 #48


My main problem with your arguments is that none of your posts have done anything to help the bitcoin community...just discredit it.  There is a pattern that emerges with threads like yours.

 had no problems with Mt.gox, my bitcoin client disappearing or with my estimated profits being unreasonable...you have managed to have all those problems in 5 days...in my eyes either you are in on it or you are too stupid to be attempting mining...either way I don't care about your opinions and they seem to only be here to sway others.

You read my posts most are either trying to out trolls or help others with their hardware...I got into this the same way I get into every investment...with the knowledge that there could be total failure.  Anyone looking to get into mining do the same...have a backup plan to your backup plan to back up your backup plan...there is no such thing as get rich quick (if there is I have never seen it and it is probably very risky).

I am not discrediting bitcoin.  Only mining with GPUs.  And of course I am trying to influence people, because from what I can tell, they are going to lose money unless they wanted to buy a gaming machine in the first place anyway.

As I said before, there is no problem with Mt. Gox.  It is an incompatability with IE8.  You can go to your Mt. Gox account in IE 8 yourself and try to send bitcoins to your account.  You will have the same problem.

The bitcoin client loss is a real thing, I just re-installed it.

If you do the math with the network growth, you don't have to trust me, because the numbers will not lie.

Swishercutter
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June 19, 2011, 12:40:29 AM
 #49

When the price of the Bitcoin goes up, the number of miners mining goes up. When the price of the Bitcoin goes down the number of miners mining goes down. This all adds up to a situation where mining for bit coins is, overall, a 1 to 1 ratio.

The value going in is the value coming out.

It's in playing the market where you make your money.

I agree I would have made far more investing so far than mining...but I doubt it will become unprofitable to do so anytime soon.
foreshadow
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June 19, 2011, 12:48:13 AM
 #50

I haven't read the whole thread, however, 4% per day means it doubles every 18 days...

Sharecoin: SgV21AYfccMiTM5EwAwPT8c9AhkkY92muB
chihlidog
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June 19, 2011, 12:53:16 AM
 #51

I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

Im not sure why anyone would want to, but just in case, I humbly and very gratefully accept donations at: 1Kn6NFFE4EqrhN1pgBDoBQEvSA5c3tdqhi
Hook^
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June 19, 2011, 12:53:42 AM
 #52

I haven't read the whole thread, however, 4% per day means it doubles every 18 days...
Exactly, which is the whole problem. Your mining rig halves it's output every 18 days.
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June 19, 2011, 12:55:15 AM
 #53

I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.
You are exactly right.  If you already have a gaming machine, you can make some extra on the side.  But no one is going to even break even with a machine just to mine.
JTaBitCoinKing
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June 19, 2011, 01:09:49 AM
 #54

I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

This is very true, Bitcoin just got a huge surge of newcomers. People like me; right at the point where we are thinking about upgrading our gaming hardware. Looks like my next upgrade is gonna go to ATI this round. I probably will be mining at a loss just to accumulate some Bitcoins for a few months.

Anyone who decided to start mining now to make cash is going to be mining at a loss until the market balances.
Hook^
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June 19, 2011, 01:11:37 AM
 #55

I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

This is very true, Bitcoin just got a huge surge of newcomers. People like me; right at the point where we are thinking about upgrading our gaming hardware. Looks like my next upgrade is gonna go to ATI this round. I probably will be mining at a loss just to accumulate some Bitcoins for a few months.

Anyone who decided to start mining now to make cash is going to be mining at a loss until the market balances.
That's what I have been trying to tell SwisherCutter, but he won't listen to logic.  I think he doesn't want to hear that he won't be making money on his decision.
chihlidog
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June 19, 2011, 01:14:01 AM
 #56

I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

This is very true, Bitcoin just got a huge surge of newcomers. People like me; right at the point where we are thinking about upgrading our gaming hardware. Looks like my next upgrade is gonna go to ATI this round. I probably will be mining at a loss just to accumulate some Bitcoins for a few months.

Anyone who decided to start mining now to make cash is going to be mining at a loss until the market balances.

I think they'll stay at a loss period. I think "market balance" is a lot lower than it is right now. But thats wild speculation on my part. Not even an educated guess. Of course, I dont think anyone can make a real educated guess since we have no historical reference for something like this.

Im not sure why anyone would want to, but just in case, I humbly and very gratefully accept donations at: 1Kn6NFFE4EqrhN1pgBDoBQEvSA5c3tdqhi
BitCoinsForGold
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June 19, 2011, 01:26:04 AM
 #57

I think that people really overstate expenses and understate earnings potential when talking about mining not being profitable

They never take into account these things

#1 not everyone pays as much for power as they do. You pay .25 a kwh for electric, that sucks. A lot of US citizens pay .04 to .08c a kwh

#2 Money spent on equipment isn't "thrown out the window", but instead its a tangible asset that can be resold. Its resell value must be deducted from your initial cost analysis, and deducted from how much you have to make to "break even"

#3 They dont take into consideration "scale". Is buying one video card going to let you retire? No absolutely not. Will 1000? Yeah probably.

#4 They assume the bitcoin market is stagnant to inflationary, meaning the bitcoin will stay the same or go down. This is not a fact. Its not false, but its also not a fact. If u really know where the bitcoins going, then quit with bitcoins and work the stock market with your same magic, because you have a crystal ball the devil gave u when he was clearing out his garage. Wish i did.



Hook^
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June 19, 2011, 01:33:42 AM
 #58

I think that people really overstate expenses and understate earnings potential when talking about mining not being profitable

They never take into account these things

#1 not everyone pays as much for power as they do. You pay .25 a kwh for electric, that sucks. A lot of US citizens pay .04 to .08c a kwh

#2 Money spent on equipment isn't "thrown out the window", but instead its a tangible asset that can be resold. Its resell value must be deducted from your initial cost analysis, and deducted from how much you have to make to "break even"

#3 They dont take into consideration "scale". Is buying one video card going to let you retire? No absolutely not. Will 1000? Yeah probably.

#4 They assume the bitcoin market is stagnant to inflationary, meaning the bitcoin will stay the same or go down. This is not a fact. Its not false, but its also not a fact. If u really know where the bitcoins going, then quit with bitcoins and work the stock market with your same magic, because you have a crystal ball the devil gave u when he was clearing out his garage. Wish i did.




#1, the power is only about 10% of the cost right now, so that isn't very important.
#2, I assume you can sell for about half the new cost.  Maybe that is too pessimistic.
#3, Scale doesn't matter when talking about profitability, only percent growth matters.  You can just multiply your scalar by the growth factor.  I am saying that the growth is negative.  In which case, a larger scale just means bigger losses.
#4, If bitcoins go up, you will get a better return on just buying them and taking the gain.  Ironically, if bitcoins go way down, miner hardware is a better investment because at least you have some hardware you can sell on ebay.
Swishercutter
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June 19, 2011, 01:34:16 AM
 #59

I think that people really overstate expenses and understate earnings potential when talking about mining not being profitable

They never take into account these things

#1 not everyone pays as much for power as they do. You pay .25 a kwh for electric, that sucks. A lot of US citizens pay .04 to .08c a kwh

#2 Money spent on equipment isn't "thrown out the window", but instead its a tangible asset that can be resold. Its resell value must be deducted from your initial cost analysis, and deducted from how much you have to make to "break even"

#3 They dont take into consideration "scale". Is buying one video card going to let you retire? No absolutely not. Will 1000? Yeah probably.

#4 They assume the bitcoin market is stagnant to inflationary, meaning the bitcoin will stay the same or go down. This is not a fact. Its not false, but its also not a fact. If u really know where the bitcoins going, then quit with bitcoins and work the stock market with your same magic, because you have a crystal ball the devil gave u when he was clearing out his garage. Wish i did.





Exactly, then they start multiple threads stating the same thing when people discredit them.
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June 19, 2011, 01:38:08 AM
 #60

i wrote in another thread "mining days are over" and still have that opinion,

but look how enthusiastic i was on june 4th:



It's been a wild ride for me these last days since i've learned about bitcoins
I've tried https://www.virwox.com/ but cannot recommend them because their commissions are outrageous

call me crazy but i'd like to try mining with an acer aspire 7552g laptop
with an ATI Mobility Radeon HD 5850

on btcguild

if i make 1btc/day the investment should pay of in about 70 days (not calculating energy)

until the cia prohibits it we are part of something really amazing

good luck again
and have nice day
 Grin

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