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Author Topic: How long until the logistics network is completely autonomous?  (Read 356 times)
tomwalsh
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May 18, 2017, 04:29:10 PM
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End to end, from transport of raw materials from the mine/plant, to delivery of final product to consumer.

Will it every be entirely autonomous and if so in what timescale?

From my own understanding of the industry, I believe it is inevitable and will happen relatively soon, within the next 20 years. The biggest hurdles being over regulation of autonomous vehicles on roads and the complexity/cost of the last leg deliver to a consumers door.

What do you think?
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May 18, 2017, 04:36:57 PM
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I think we will see autonomous cars on our roads before this happens. Even so there will be humans watching and at the controls incase they need to take over. When lots of money is at play I doubt anyone would risk it on machines doing everything.

Time frame? 15-20 years many industries will be autonomous. But then where will the people work? No work no money no buy stuff. There is kind of a symbiotic relationship with consumers and manufacturers right now this automation may screw that up.

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May 18, 2017, 09:03:56 PM
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I think we will see autonomous cars on our roads before this happens. Even so there will be humans watching and at the controls incase they need to take over. When lots of money is at play I doubt anyone would risk it on machines doing everything.

Time frame? 15-20 years many industries will be autonomous. But then where will the people work? No work no money no buy stuff. There is kind of a symbiotic relationship with consumers and manufacturers right now this automation may screw that up.



Yes i agree autonomous cars will definitely be on the roads, Elon Musk has teased  that level 3 autonomy is mostly finished and needs small refinements before implementation in all Tesla vehicles before the end of this year.

Your second point is something I don't understand, statistical studies have shown autonomous systems, even now, are far better at processing risk and reacting to it than humans. Having a human 'watching' is pointless. In the case of total system failure the autonomous system would be programmed to simply pull over and wait for assistance. Management is based on statistical evidence, which is why firms today implement as much autonomy as technology of today allows for exactly the reason of limiting risk. The biggest risk to any system is the unpredictability of humans.

As for your point with jobs, I do agree that in the short run job loss may be a problem. But you have to realize this type of thing has been happening for centuries. Not too long ago most of the population was required o work in agriculture in order to feed ourselves. As agriculture became more efficient people panicked about jobs being lost. Instead other industries grew to provide employment. firstly their is the direct employment of industries that develop and service the autonomous systems. Secondly autonomy will drive down the cost of goods, meaning consumers will have more disposable income to spend elsewhere,for example service industries or entertainment industries.
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May 19, 2017, 11:06:11 AM
 #4

I think we will see autonomous cars on our roads before this happens. Even so there will be humans watching and at the controls incase they need to take over. When lots of money is at play I doubt anyone would risk it on machines doing everything.

Time frame? 15-20 years many industries will be autonomous. But then where will the people work? No work no money no buy stuff. There is kind of a symbiotic relationship with consumers and manufacturers right now this automation may screw that up.



Yes i agree autonomous cars will definitely be on the roads, Elon Musk has teased  that level 3 autonomy is mostly finished and needs small refinements before implementation in all Tesla vehicles before the end of this year.

Your second point is something I don't understand, statistical studies have shown autonomous systems, even now, are far better at processing risk and reacting to it than humans. Having a human 'watching' is pointless. In the case of total system failure the autonomous system would be programmed to simply pull over and wait for assistance. Management is based on statistical evidence, which is why firms today implement as much autonomy as technology of today allows for exactly the reason of limiting risk. The biggest risk to any system is the unpredictability of humans.

As for your point with jobs, I do agree that in the short run job loss may be a problem. But you have to realize this type of thing has been happening for centuries. Not too long ago most of the population was required o work in agriculture in order to feed ourselves. As agriculture became more efficient people panicked about jobs being lost. Instead other industries grew to provide employment. firstly their is the direct employment of industries that develop and service the autonomous systems. Secondly autonomy will drive down the cost of goods, meaning consumers will have more disposable income to spend elsewhere,for example service industries or entertainment industries.

Interesting topic, I agree we will see autonomous vehicles on the roads during the next few years and industries like Uber will co-exist with the death of taxi licenses as an industry in the intermin period before autonomous transportation. The question is how many people will trust automation over human interaction even the ultra rich would likely keep a chauffeur around until retirement versus a self-driving car.

In regards to job loss the issue is finding a transferable industry where people's skills can be applied, for drivers that will involve machinery operations and other areas where autonomous machines still would need time to develop such as construction winches etc, although the part's that are not automated do go abroad example mexico hence their are trade battles about labor.

I believe santaclaws was talking about the associated industries and the impact on their jobs that automation impacts. In your case the main focus was on the driver of the vehicle being replaced without consideration for the part manufacturers/oil and lube changers/ mechanics/ restaurants that driver visits and other side industries that see a decreasing demand and possibly shutdown in the long run due to a decrease in the total number of users demanding their services.

Not that it would disappear entirely of course there will still be demand as long as private vehicles exist but the amount of parts to fix a car and the people who have expertise associated with different brands and repairs will fade away, sort of like the skill-set of people who design cars and airplanes all their lives retiring less skilled/experienced people will replace them in the workforce.

So your presumption that consumers will have more disposable income assumes that the individuals are fluid enough to succeed in transferring their skill-set elsewhere or finding another low cost labor industry if their skills are insufficient to code a computer mainframe or network from scratch. So in a sense your right the biggest risk is the unpredictability of humans will they be able to succeed in another industry or enter a poverty cycle because they cannot find another job and that is where job subsidization and transition training is required aka government interference to reduce the contagion effects which tend to be left unmitigated in modern society.

The market presumes it is a self correcting mechanism with no leaks cough since it's seems like such a pain to fix it a classical argument ^^. But is it Elon Musk's job to fix it nope it's up to state actors at some point to patch the plumbing.
http://www.raybromley.com/notes/ADASequiMove2.html
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May 19, 2017, 11:53:11 AM
 #5

Now there are companies that deliver correspondence and small purchases drones. This allows you to not stand in traffic jams and faster to deliver, but such modernization requires huge investments. During the financial crisis is not the best solution.

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May 19, 2017, 06:15:51 PM
 #6

Now there are companies that deliver correspondence and small purchases drones. This allows you to not stand in traffic jams and faster to deliver, but such modernization requires huge investments. During the financial crisis is not the best solution.
As a part now drones are used in the delivery service by few logistics network. Soon we can expect the same service all around the world. Also the automatic functioning of the logistics network is quite a risky sector but recently the blockchain technology implementation into it has given effective results. So we can expect good results in the near future.

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May 19, 2017, 08:23:55 PM
 #7

it's slowly happening already. compare the number of staff in a factory compared to thirty years ago. some of these giant container ships only have crews of 10-20 people. mail sorting is automated.

it's only a short leap before all of these things might have one human supervisor present and eventually none at all.

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darkangel11
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May 19, 2017, 09:51:25 PM
 #8

Now there are companies that deliver correspondence and small purchases drones. This allows you to not stand in traffic jams and faster to deliver, but such modernization requires huge investments. During the financial crisis is not the best solution.
As a part now drones are used in the delivery service by few logistics network. Soon we can expect the same service all around the world. Also the automatic functioning of the logistics network is quite a risky sector but recently the blockchain technology implementation into it has given effective results. So we can expect good results in the near future.
The problem with drones is that they can be shot down with ease. This will give birth to a new breed of drone hijackers, because getting a drone worth couple thousand dollars is one thing, but more importantly you'll be getting its cargo.
On the other hand there was a group of people testing a food delivery robot (one that drives on wheels) and there wasn't a single incident of someone trying to damage it or steal the food. Maybe people were worried they are being watched by its cameras, or maybe they just liked the way it looked.


tomwalsh
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May 31, 2017, 01:53:19 PM
 #9

I think we will see autonomous cars on our roads before this happens. Even so there will be humans watching and at the controls incase they need to take over. When lots of money is at play I doubt anyone would risk it on machines doing everything.

Time frame? 15-20 years many industries will be autonomous. But then where will the people work? No work no money no buy stuff. There is kind of a symbiotic relationship with consumers and manufacturers right now this automation may screw that up.



Yes i agree autonomous cars will definitely be on the roads, Elon Musk has teased  that level 3 autonomy is mostly finished and needs small refinements before implementation in all Tesla vehicles before the end of this year.

Your second point is something I don't understand, statistical studies have shown autonomous systems, even now, are far better at processing risk and reacting to it than humans. Having a human 'watching' is pointless. In the case of total system failure the autonomous system would be programmed to simply pull over and wait for assistance. Management is based on statistical evidence, which is why firms today implement as much autonomy as technology of today allows for exactly the reason of limiting risk. The biggest risk to any system is the unpredictability of humans.

As for your point with jobs, I do agree that in the short run job loss may be a problem. But you have to realize this type of thing has been happening for centuries. Not too long ago most of the population was required o work in agriculture in order to feed ourselves. As agriculture became more efficient people panicked about jobs being lost. Instead other industries grew to provide employment. firstly their is the direct employment of industries that develop and service the autonomous systems. Secondly autonomy will drive down the cost of goods, meaning consumers will have more disposable income to spend elsewhere,for example service industries or entertainment industries.

Interesting topic, I agree we will see autonomous vehicles on the roads during the next few years and industries like Uber will co-exist with the death of taxi licenses as an industry in the intermin period before autonomous transportation. The question is how many people will trust automation over human interaction even the ultra rich would likely keep a chauffeur around until retirement versus a self-driving car.

In regards to job loss the issue is finding a transferable industry where people's skills can be applied, for drivers that will involve machinery operations and other areas where autonomous machines still would need time to develop such as construction winches etc, although the part's that are not automated do go abroad example mexico hence their are trade battles about labor.

I believe santaclaws was talking about the associated industries and the impact on their jobs that automation impacts. In your case the main focus was on the driver of the vehicle being replaced without consideration for the part manufacturers/oil and lube changers/ mechanics/ restaurants that driver visits and other side industries that see a decreasing demand and possibly shutdown in the long run due to a decrease in the total number of users demanding their services.

Not that it would disappear entirely of course there will still be demand as long as private vehicles exist but the amount of parts to fix a car and the people who have expertise associated with different brands and repairs will fade away, sort of like the skill-set of people who design cars and airplanes all their lives retiring less skilled/experienced people will replace them in the workforce.

So your presumption that consumers will have more disposable income assumes that the individuals are fluid enough to succeed in transferring their skill-set elsewhere or finding another low cost labor industry if their skills are insufficient to code a computer mainframe or network from scratch. So in a sense your right the biggest risk is the unpredictability of humans will they be able to succeed in another industry or enter a poverty cycle because they cannot find another job and that is where job subsidization and transition training is required aka government interference to reduce the contagion effects which tend to be left unmitigated in modern society.

The market presumes it is a self correcting mechanism with no leaks cough since it's seems like such a pain to fix it a classical argument ^^. But is it Elon Musk's job to fix it nope it's up to state actors at some point to patch the plumbing.
http://www.raybromley.com/notes/ADASequiMove2.html

Thank you for this reply, one of the best i've seen on the forum so far.

You made some excellent points, the main focus being the labour force not being fluid enough to adapt to the changing needs of the economy.
I totally agree with this, but it is such a shame.

Personally I don't understand the unwillingness people have to learn new skills.
A lot of people would rather see the economy stagnate than put in the effort to learn something new.

Surely someone like Elon Musk is a great example for this. He has now developed 4 companies in incredibly different industries, working hard to learn how each one works first.
I know this isn't a real world example, as he is a billionaire with plenty of disposable income, but the mentality is what we need more of.
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May 31, 2017, 03:57:10 PM
 #10

The biggest hurdles being over regulation of autonomous vehicles on roads and the complexity/cost of the last leg deliver to a consumers door.

What do you think?

I think the way transport of goods is handled on highways provides possibilities for autonomously piloted cargo vehicles to start hauling loads back and forth in the next two decades or maybe even less. The technology is here already, but people don't have complete confidence in it and rightfully so. Remember the accident with the Volvo ceo who got ran over by their own car?

It's possible to have unmanned transport delivery vehicles on the highways even with the current tech. However it will be necessary for them to move in separate lanes and those lanes will have to be secured so as to decrease the chances for endangering the lives of regular people in the traffic.
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