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Author Topic: Death Spiral for Car Ownership? End of Fuel-Powered Cars by 2024?  (Read 316 times)
BADecker
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May 18, 2017, 08:05:11 PM
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Death Spiral for Car Ownership? End of Fuel-Powered Cars by 2024?





I have been a leading proponent that self-driving vehicles, especially trucks, will be here sooner than most think. My estimate for long-haul trucks taking over is 2021-2022 or so. Widespread adoption of self-driving cars will be slower.

Many of my readers think that 2021-2022 is impossible. However, some recent studies claim I am far too pessimistic in my assessment.

For example, a California think tank proposes Fuel-powered cars 'will not be manufactured after 2024'.

Cars powered by fossil fuels will no longer be made after 2024 as self-driving electrical vehicles become vastly cheaper to use, according to a report by a Californian think tank.

The death of the internal combustion engine will be accelerated by a new model of car use in which fleets of self-driving vehicles are available for all to use, making car ownership uneconomic, the study said.

The report by Tony Seba, an economist at Stanford University, finds that forecasts of a slow move from fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles envisage drivers continuing to own cars. He argues that the introduction of driverless technology will be driven by companies such as Uber and DiDi, which will invest massively in creating a fleet of vehicles that are so cheap and convenient to use that car ownership will become a thing of the past.

Seba said the world is on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. "By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles, 95 percent of US passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call 'transportas-a-service.'"

The report, co-authored by James Arbib, estimates that the costs at the moment of disruption when transport as a service is available will be:

Driving a paid-off fuel car: 34 cents per mile

Buying a new fuel car: 65 cents per mile

Buying a new electric vehicle: 62 cents per mile

Using transport as a service: 16 cents per mile

Death Spiral for Cars

Renew Economy says Death spiral for cars. By 2030, you probably won't own one. The source of this article is also Tony Seba.

By 2030, you probably won't own a car, but you may get a free trip with your morning coffee. Transport-As-A-Service will use only electric vehicles and will upend two trillion-dollar industries. It's the death spiral for cars.


Read more at https://mishtalk.com/2017/05/17/death-spiral-for-car-ownership-end-of-fuel-powered-cars-by-2024/.


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Lancusters
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May 18, 2017, 11:19:53 PM
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I like love myself to drive a car and will never give up his car. While the electric car brings more trouble to his master than savings. I do not see any prospects for the development of electric vehicles. Maybe I'm blind, I bet.
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May 18, 2017, 11:58:26 PM
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I like love myself to drive a car and will never give up his car. While the electric car brings more trouble to his master than savings. I do not see any prospects for the development of electric vehicles. Maybe I'm blind, I bet.

Just remember. When gasoline is gone, you will need about an 18:1 compression ratio to give the same performance with straight ethanol. Standard in a gasoline engine is about 9:1.

You'll need two batteries to crank that compression. You'll burn out starter motors. You might change your mind unless you have the money lying around.

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May 19, 2017, 12:21:39 AM
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Any batteries in the cold and freeze their voltage drops. You can put the car near the office and in the evening if will increase the frost not be able to go. Existing batteries are very expensive and not durable. With gasoline there is no problem and you are guaranteed to get the car started in any frost. And travel over long distances is impossible in an electric car.
BADecker
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May 19, 2017, 12:28:20 AM
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^^^^^ However, if there is a significant drop in gasoline requirement, the refineries will shut down... not profitable. Once this gets started, there will be no turning back.

Btw, the world runs on the petro-dollar. If oil shuts down, there will be a big crash in money systems. Nobody knows what will happen then. Prepare.

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May 19, 2017, 11:33:06 AM
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^^^^^ However, if there is a significant drop in gasoline requirement, the refineries will shut down... not profitable. Once this gets started, there will be no turning back.

Btw, the world runs on the petro-dollar. If oil shuts down, there will be a big crash in money systems. Nobody knows what will happen then. Prepare.

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As long as we HODL our cryptocurrency we are ready for oil crashes although this is already a pretty damn low cost per barrel and the Saudi's can still go lower so perhaps consumer grade oil would rise in prices , that said I don't see jet-fuel being replaced anytime soon or cargo holds for ships.

Regardless, I doubt all countries in the world are able to adopt a technology at the same pace, so transitions will apply to some countries faster than others one just needs to look at the phase out of incandescent light bulbs and stock pile some gas ^^.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_incandescent_light_bulbs

It does takes a while to do a real transition and I doubt people will go out of their way to buy an expensive new car when the old one works just fine so we are good BADecker, plus some people do not want to give up their really old cars in the event of a solar flare for those who are concerned about electronics blowing up and those people who do want to survive the nuclear holocaust ^^.
http://www.askaprepper.com/vehicles-emp-survival/
matuson
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May 19, 2017, 11:46:42 AM
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Sellers of oil can no longer keep the oil price at a high level. They are limited by the fact that people will switch to alternative sources. But I doubt that until 2024, the price of electric vehicles will be significantly reduced, and this means it is too early to write off the use of oil as fuel.

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