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Author Topic: Is the Era of P&D Over for Crypto 'Blue Chips'?  (Read 3648 times)
lurker10
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May 21, 2017, 07:28:09 PM
 #21


I recently mentioned Nxt as one of my favorite most undervalued cryptocurrencies in a thread I started on the topic of true BTC ratio valuations and how we might get there.

Anyone who would like to “drop in” and share your reasons for holding Nxt, you have my warmest invitation to join in. What are your 5 top reasons for holding Nxt? What is special about Nxt?

Being undervalued in BTC ratio terms is only part of the story. Come over and tell us about the rest!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1925617.0


As requested.

1) In Nxt stake holders control consensus and get fees from transactions.
Unlike Proof-of-work where miners are in control of consensus and network which causes conflicts of interest and strife in proof-of-work currencies.

2) Nxt has pioneered many features that other coins adopted or think about adopting.

3) Nxt is the longest running cryptocurrency not cloned from Bitcoin. Different code is a good technique to diversify from possible flaws of the Bitcoin copycat coins.

4) Nxt has most dedicated devs who never miss a deadline.

5) And the last but not the least, Nxt is soon to become Nxt 2.0 on the Ardor platform. Ardor, like Nxt before it, is a pioneer of scaling solutions in the form of child chains, not seen in any of the other cryptocurrencies, featuring 35x better scalability than Nxt or Bitcoin on consumer grade hardware (your average laptops).

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May 21, 2017, 08:09:58 PM
 #22

Agree that SYS is undervalued. I haven't researched the others, but due to your posts, I will.

I'd add Monero to the list of solid coins. It's the most fungible and private coin available. With more money pouring into crypto, people will soon realize that they don't want merchants/others knowing how rich (or poor) they are since most of these coins are on transparent blockchains. With Monero the amount you send, the person you send it to, and your sending address are all not visible on the blockchain. In an era of government and corporate spying, the need for financial privacy is only going to increase.

Its value is poised to grow because of those reasons, but also because major features are due soon: Kovri I2P, multisig, and mobile wallets. The unofficial spokesperson, FluffyPony, gave a presentation to Coinbase earlier this year. As to whether Coinbase includes Monero with BTC and LTC remains to be seen.

XMR also is not a Bitcoin clone. It started from Bytecoin (which had a > 80% premine) but has been improved so much that to say it's a Bytecoin clone is no longer a good description. The devs (over 200 contributors with around 10 core devs) are top-notch, responsive, and involved. Monero has been academically reviewed and still undergoes extensive testing through the Monero Research Lab. It's survived several attacks and smear campaigns because the tech is solid and does what it claims to do. It's one of the few coins that doesn't engage in hype and out-of-control marketing, choosing instead to focus on its tech.

So, I believe it's still undervalued.

Comparison of Privacy-Centric Coins: https://moneroforcash.com/monero-vs-dash-vs-zcash-vs-bitcoinmixers.php also includes Verge and Pivx
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May 21, 2017, 08:24:24 PM
Last edit: May 21, 2017, 09:07:57 PM by HR
 #23

I do not think the dumps are necessarily over (still thinly traded markets), but agree with the notion that - should the crypto currency growth endure - there will be a steady inflow of money seeking a part of this. And yes, definitely some of it will go into larger altcoins, if only as a speculative bet.

And all of this is good as long as the user base keeps growing, on to applications usable in real life. For now, I settle for Bitcoin's excellent 'decentralised trust' mechanism. Not a bad feature for medium term thinking, looking at the path major fiat currencies are currently taking.

Comparing Bitcoin with other investments by numbers, this is still very tiny and thus subject to major price variations. So also dumps I think. And there is no shock absorber  Cool

I sure hope early coins like Devcoin will make it to the other side. On the other hand, no coin really dies if there are two people sending each other coins  Roll Eyes

Yeah I don't see P&D completely dying all at once either. While I'm thinking the time might be now for the best of the best to be substantially revalued, there could be a few more rounds with the majority of coins and perhaps even more with the more speculative coins.

As you say, comparing strictly by numbers is very limited. Blockchain projects with applications usable in real life is extremely important, especially for the 2nd generation coins who don't intend to compete on a purely store of value level.

STEEM and BTS are a couple of my favorites precisely because of what they're doing in the "real life" area. NXT and SYS are 1st generation winners creating real, one stop, store of value and means of exchange, that is to say, true LTC rivals that will probably end up standing side by side with LTC in that space.

In any event, I completely agree that strict ratio analysis is only a relative springboard as it were, and I've invited people from each of the cryptos above to share their thoughts and ideas about their respective "coins" to hopefully expand the conversation a bit and make it more useful to all.

Thanks.

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May 21, 2017, 08:56:23 PM
Last edit: May 21, 2017, 09:08:12 PM by HR
 #24


I recently mentioned Nxt as one of my favorite most undervalued cryptocurrencies in a thread I started on the topic of true BTC ratio valuations and how we might get there.

Anyone who would like to “drop in” and share your reasons for holding Nxt, you have my warmest invitation to join in. What are your 5 top reasons for holding Nxt? What is special about Nxt?

Being undervalued in BTC ratio terms is only part of the story. Come over and tell us about the rest!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1925617.0


As requested.

1) In Nxt stake holders control consensus and get fees from transactions.
Unlike Proof-of-work where miners are in control of consensus and network which causes conflicts of interest and strife in proof-of-work currencies.

2) Nxt has pioneered many features that other coins adopted or think about adopting.

3) Nxt is the longest running cryptocurrency not cloned from Bitcoin. Different code is a good technique to diversify from possible flaws of the Bitcoin copycat coins.

4) Nxt has most dedicated devs who never miss a deadline.

5) And the last but not the least, Nxt is soon to become Nxt 2.0 on the Ardor platform. Ardor, like Nxt before it, is a pioneer of scaling solutions in the form of child chains, not seen in any of the other cryptocurrencies, featuring 35x better scalability than Nxt or Bitcoin on consumer grade hardware (your average laptops).

Lots happening there on a consistent real time basis! And lots to read and learn about for the future too. https://nxt.org/announcing-ardor/

Thanks for whetting our appetite!

Amazing what Nxt has done and continues to do.

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May 21, 2017, 09:04:37 PM
Last edit: May 21, 2017, 09:41:46 PM by HR
 #25

Agree that SYS is undervalued. I haven't researched the others, but due to your posts, I will.

I'd add Monero to the list of solid coins. It's the most fungible and private coin available. With more money pouring into crypto, people will soon realize that they don't want merchants/others knowing how rich (or poor) they are since most of these coins are on transparent blockchains. With Monero the amount you send, the person you send it to, and your sending address are all not visible on the blockchain. In an era of government and corporate spying, the need for financial privacy is only going to increase.

Its value is poised to grow because of those reasons, but also because major features are due soon: Kovri I2P, multisig, and mobile wallets. The unofficial spokesperson, FluffyPony, gave a presentation to Coinbase earlier this year. As to whether Coinbase includes Monero with BTC and LTC remains to be seen.

XMR also is not a Bitcoin clone. It started from Bytecoin (which had a > 80% premine) but has been improved so much that to say it's a Bytecoin clone is no longer a good description. The devs (over 200 contributors with around 10 core devs) are top-notch, responsive, and involved. Monero has been academically reviewed and still undergoes extensive testing through the Monero Research Lab. It's survived several attacks and smear campaigns because the tech is solid and does what it claims to do. It's one of the few coins that doesn't engage in hype and out-of-control marketing, choosing instead to focus on its tech.

So, I believe it's still undervalued.

Monero is on the radar, but with "only" a 60x ratio specific revaluation prospect, I'm not sure about it getting an imminent boost to that level - there could be perceived negatives based on being a relative laggard within the top level group of the top 10 (by new money looking for the still relatively  "undiscovered" coin with "big potential"). For lower end appreciation prospects, I'm looking for something that serves the more hardcore bank vault equivalent, like BTC (not) or LTC. I like everything you have to say though, but I'm just not all that much in need of absolute privacy either, and especially not if basic security is compromised - not saying it is, but when there's a doubt . . . maybe someone else can help out with this . . . maybe I'm not adequately informed.

Thanks for pointing it out and reminding me to keep it on a front burner.  Smiley

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May 21, 2017, 09:36:05 PM
 #26

Pump and dumps wont just go away.

There is no laws and regulations that will make sure this cant happen.

And from what I know, then  there is a group called "fairpumpers" that are doing a public "fair" pump and dump.

But they also have a private group that has to pay .50 or .75 to get in.

Which sounds sketchy if you ask me.

But P&Ds will be a thing forever.. Unless regulation will kick in.


                                                                                                               
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May 21, 2017, 09:39:33 PM
 #27

But P&Ds will be a thing forever.. Unless regulation will kick in.

this is a very interesting question. it looks like most legal clarifications so far treat crypto as forex. forex has nothing like the regulation that any stock market has. however crypto markets also contain the people who created and control the currencies. there's gotta be some conflict that regulators won't like in there somewhere.

i wonder as it gets bigger whether they'll let it continue to be a free for all or not.
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May 21, 2017, 09:54:55 PM
 #28

Pump and dumps wont just go away.

There is no laws and regulations that will make sure this cant happen.

And from what I know, then  there is a group called "fairpumpers" that are doing a public "fair" pump and dump.

But they also have a private group that has to pay .50 or .75 to get in.

Which sounds sketchy if you ask me.

But P&Ds will be a thing forever.. Unless regulation will kick in.

There's also a point where the free market ends P&D independent of regulation. It's a simple size thing. It's the reason why pink sheet penny stocks were always the favorite and why it's impossible to pump IBM, much less the EUR, for example.

BTC is arguably too big to be P&Ded now.

The thesis is that money flow into crypto is so large and so constant that other cryptocurrencies will soon be taken to similar capitalization levels, and that little by litte, probably sooner than later, through a series of across the board rallies with relatively shallow corrections, the top 25 to 50 eventual survivors will all be taken to similar levels. Perhaps we'll be talking about the "blue chips" and "penny stocks" of crypto in just a few months time. With the later, there will still be P&D, but will we see it through the same eyes by then? Or will it end up working against them, ironically speeding up their eventual death in so far as having a chance to go beyond cult status to mainstream acceptance?

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May 21, 2017, 10:01:01 PM
 #29

My thought is that anyone who says we're in a new era is usually wrong. I've heard it so many times in other markets that I just don't believe it anymore. There are no new eras. We have seen it all, and that includes crypto..
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May 21, 2017, 10:02:58 PM
 #30

My thought is that anyone who says we're in a new era is usually wrong. I've heard it so many times in other markets that I just don't believe it anymore. There are no new eras. We have seen it all, and that includes crypto..

yep. let's dig up this thread in a few months. either it's gonna be an embarrassment or a triumph. i'm betting on embarrassment.
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May 21, 2017, 10:05:05 PM
 #31

But P&Ds will be a thing forever.. Unless regulation will kick in.

this is a very interesting question. it looks like most legal clarifications so far treat crypto as forex. forex has nothing like the regulation that any stock market has. however crypto markets also contain the people who created and control the currencies. there's gotta be some conflict that regulators won't like in there somewhere.

i wonder as it gets bigger whether they'll let it continue to be a free for all or not.

I agree. It's a most interesting question, but, again, in my opinion, it's not a question of if, but when, and I think it's coming much sooner than anyone expects. We'd be remiss if we didn't. Not only to settle conflicts, but to also TAX the gains. Big money there for govs. Wink

And there are proactive consumer protection measures as well . . .

What's most interesting for me from a valuation standpoint is that regulation will be the end of it for a few entities, no doubt in my mind.

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May 21, 2017, 10:16:12 PM
 #32

My thought is that anyone who says we're in a new era is usually wrong. I've heard it so many times in other markets that I just don't believe it anymore. There are no new eras. We have seen it all, and that includes crypto..

Perhaps you really mean to say that PREDICTING when a new era begins is usually wrong. If that's what you're meaning to say, then I agree with you.

I've taken great pains to make sure I reiterate again and again it's not IF, but WHEN, and that is what we're asking ourselves about. We're not questioning if it'll happen. IT WILL HAPPEN. There is no doubt about that. The question is when and how, and the key to this thread is that it is a QUESTION framed as: "is it happening under our noses right now?" It is not a prediction.

You wouldn't say there's never been new eras in the history of mankind would you?  Wink

Changes happen every minute of every day. The trick is to adapt in real time. For the more complex and complicated changes we face, the usual requirements are a little foresight, insight and predictive capabilities, and the process normally starts with analysis regarding relative past experience and precedent, and feasible possibilities.

What's the old saying? Never say never?

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May 22, 2017, 03:57:56 PM
 #33

My thought is that anyone who says we're in a new era is usually wrong. I've heard it so many times in other markets that I just don't believe it anymore. There are no new eras. We have seen it all, and that includes crypto..

Maybe we are in the new era of pump and stability (P&S) and have outdone the P&D that hitherto was tormenting newbies like myself and those who invested in expensive mines.
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May 22, 2017, 04:02:19 PM
 #34


There's size money driving these markets. Everything I'm looking at says that this is anything but pump and dump. I could be wrong though. That's one of the reasons why I started this thread.  Wink

Look at that leader board! Huge fiat inflows = demand overwhelming supply. Early cycle leaders indicating there's more to come.


http://i.imgur.com/VDdgJ2p.jpg?1

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May 22, 2017, 07:22:24 PM
 #35


You know, I just wanted to mention that I don't want to give the impression that contrasting opinions are not welcome in this thread. The fact that I've commented strongly against the idea that things never change should not be construed to mean that I don't want counter opinions to the possibility that we are currently experiencing a fundamental shift in crypto.

Quite the contrary! I want counter arguments, but they need to be just that: arguments! Just saying that things never change without saying what you base your opinion on are, to be honest, worthless statements. Even more specific comments like there is no change happening now are useless if you have no rational argument developed to support your opinion. However, almost everything is admissible if it's backed up with rational arguments!

So don't get me wrong, it's not like I don't want you to give dissenting opinions; it's just that I want you to support your view with observational data of some sort. It doesn't even have to necessarily be objective, but you do need to say WHY you think what you think and give examples for what you're talking about. I have cited clearly observable massive money flow over the last few months into crypto as one of my arguments (and I will share more of the same as I get time to do more analysis) that looks quite sustained until now. One possible counter argument would be to develop a thesis for why this is an anomaly, or, even better, a misinterpretation of the data on my part, for example. Have at it! I'm looking for healthy, open, honest and good faith debate.

Please shoot down my initial conclusions (I'm sure you'll be helping me to save a lot of money if you successfully do), but please do so with real arguments and without empty dogmatism. Who knows, we might even make some money together – the most important aspect of this thread should be that it is mutually beneficial. Wink

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May 22, 2017, 07:48:25 PM
 #36

Can you please point to an event, statistic, or underlying betterment of BTC's protocol that can justify the recent rise?


Japan:
I am sure money from this market has made a difference, but not on the scale we are seeing.

Code:
Taking todays announcement into consideration, there has not been a major settlement with the scaling issue.

Institutional, Hedge Funds, Governments:
I've heard rumors that money from these type of places has finally wised up and decided to enter the game. This rumor is often repeated, but never verified. I actually think once this rumor becomes a reality(sometime in the future), that is when we will see 10k per coin and up.

Bottom line, BTC's market cap and the liquidity on the exchanges still allows for wales to pump and dump. Wales aren't the only ones to blame. There are plenty of average people/traders buying BTC because they think this gravy train will not stop.

In fact, this thread is a good indicator we are in a bubble or just entering one. A bubble is when everyone at the party is drunk and cannot think rationally. If I say "BTC will only keep going up", that is an IRRATIONAL statement. Change the subject BTC with Apple stock or Real Estate prices and you will see how stupid it sounds. The fact that people believe BTC cannot be dumped means they are currently drunk.
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May 22, 2017, 08:42:07 PM
Last edit: May 22, 2017, 09:07:04 PM by muf18
 #37


The era of pump and dump is far from being over.You will see this happening again. It's just a question of time.The alts will crash. To me this is set in stone. If bitcoin should bubble, which it isn't so far, it will get dumped as well.
Altcoins will correct 80-90% imo. And in worst case it will take Bitcoin down to a certain percentage as well.In a best case scenario some huge amounts of the alt money will push Bitcoin up as people may see it as the safe net!  

That’s certainly the “other side of the coin” - “what we’ve known until now” - but assuming that things will always be the same never works forever. Regimen changes can cost a lot of money to those entrenched in outdated thinking. It’s important to avoid falling into that trap, and, well, that’s the reason for this thread.

I think we can all agree that the question about reasonable valuations for solid performing products like STEEM or BTS, to name but two examples, is not a question of if, but when. Those are two stellar examples, Freudian slip intended, but there are many more. Many more. LTC is not going away anytime soon, rather it will be trading at its 4:1 ratio with BTC sooner or later, don't you think?

Sooner or later. At some point there’s a paradigm shift. Sooner or later. Agreed? Could it be happening now?


nothing, but nothing, presently justifies its valuation. there's no more usage than there was a few months ago.

at the same time when you look at figures like coinbase published recently about new users and the japanese banks applying to create crypto exchanges, the weight of newcomers might well cancel out the possibility of major dumps.

it depends on whether they keep on coming and we end up with an eternal september situation. but sooner rather than later all these coins need to actually deliver something tangible.

and thread titles reminds me of two phrases - 'this time it's different' and 'new paradigm' and we all know what happens next when they're thrown around.

As I just outlined above, sooner or later we’ll get that new paradigm, why not now?

Japan is getting very crypto friendly very fast. Look out if institutions like the Japanese Government Pension Fund starts getting involved (sooner or later, right?).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Investment_Fund

Money’s number one priority is self-preservation, and there’s big money on the outside looking very seriously at cryptocurrencies, and, in my estimation, already moving into cryptocurrencies in a big way that’s going to get much bigger very soon (but you already know my opinion on that).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-09/bitcoin-soars-over-1700-2017s-best-performing-currency


LTC/BTC at 4:1 ? Are you insane ? Did you see to silver trade to gold to 4:1? Litecoin even with the best pumping and 'developer boost' (now), can get to about 45-50 : 1 and it was high enough, and the supply doesn't matter, so much these days. LTC is expensive for a currency without any perspectives than segwit and some upgrades. It has sentiment and support of many crypto exchanges, and is a base pair of many coins, but trading currency doesn't neccesary means it will go up. I think if LTC could reach again 50$, as I thought for a year, it can be a top for this year.

@up - of course. We're entering 'media attention' phase, cause even in my country (non-technical news), are reporting about btc sourging, so a few months from now (3-4, maybe 5), we will see pop, as I calculated around 5900-6400$, some tell about 10K, but for me it's still early for such prices, but 6K would be good price to pop and slash it to 1-1.2K. However if it would extend we can get to 8K-10K, in which will be extremely volatile.
Ok, so looking for a market history deep and hour by hour in oct and nov in 2013, we are at the stage 2 as I said - media attention, and maybe within this month, we can accelerate to have 10K (when the history would repeat itself), and the start we can estimate at 22 april with price 1220-1240$, it was only one month at it;s about 2250$ now, almost the same change %-wise like from oct 5 to nov 5 in 2013. It's almost the same. This month is important.

And also that we are done with threats like 'we're at bubble', suggesting still fear at the early stages of rapidly rising market.

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May 22, 2017, 09:14:20 PM
 #38


Interesting ideas especially the concept of whales still being able to manipulate BTC, and that LTC somehow has a real silver-gold relationship. Do you really think so? Japan isn't so involved yet, but the news of it becoming so is. Smiley No, there's lots to be considered, and lots to be debated, but always with the thinking cap on, and since I don't have time ATM to give things a better read, I'll leave off by promising I'll do my best to chip in when I can.

And the reason for this post:


http://i.imgur.com/uNuYj0f.png

Thanks for contributing.

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May 22, 2017, 09:39:20 PM
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I believe Pump and Dump era will never end.  Every coin has its time to be pumped then dumped.  It is a trading strategy implemented by people who have more funds to manipulate the market and earn more from trading.  This is a "natural phenomena" in trading.  It is like Air in the atmosphere, it will never end.
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May 22, 2017, 09:53:46 PM
 #40

Pump/dump is still possible. With higher trading volumes, it takes more money to accomplish it today than it did in the past when trading volumes were much lower. Today pump/dump might take more cash than is feasible & not be worth it in terms of risk versus reward. That's the only thing that has changed.

Even if btc isn't feasible for pump/dump, there will still be many altcoins with lower trading volume where its a normal thing.

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