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Author Topic: Is the Era of P&D Over for Crypto 'Blue Chips'?  (Read 3648 times)
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May 20, 2017, 08:50:09 AM
Last edit: May 26, 2017, 04:07:41 PM by HR
 #1


Can we say goodbye to Pump and Dump? Has the era of ratio adjusted valuations finally arrived?

I first commented on what I identified as the first major influx of fiat capital flow into crypto over a year ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1095434.0

Now a year later, others are starting to get wise too.

http://www.coindesk.com/second-wave-bitcoin-price-growth-may-just-beginning/ (The author’s referring to the 2nd wave *up*, or the 3rd wave in Elliott Wave terminology.)
http://www.coindesk.com/800-growth-q1s-top-performing-cryptocurrencies-posted-big-gains/
http://www.altcointoday.com/billionaire-investor-holds-10-percent-of-life-savings-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/japanese-investors-might-be-fueling-the-next-altcoin-bubble (Take note that P&D legacy influences the author’s title and conclusion – preconceived notions will get you your head handed to you.)

And the articles are becoming more and more proliferate every day.

If you accept the thesis that this “new” money knows basically nothing about the technology itself and only knows that some small part of its portfolio needs to be allocated to this emerging economic reality, and if one of the pillars of modern investing is diversification, then we can conclude that this new money will be spread out over a “basket” of cryptocurrencies. By no means can we even begin to think that non-tech money will target specific cryptocoins. This new money will most likely be targeted at the sector as a whole.

And how will valuation be analyzed and estimated? It will be done just like it’s always been done: by ratio adjustment. If BTC is worth “a” and XYZ coin has a supply 10 times greater, then XYZ will be worth “a” * 0.1. Very simple. Extremely simple. Ultimately BTC will be tied to the USD in the same way, just like all currencies are tied to each other. Of course, there are fluctuations in their relative pricings based on wider economic factors, but just as we never see a 10% overnight change in the EUR/USD, soon we’ll never see huge pumps and dumps again.

I think we’re going to see huge pumps that DON’T dump, and that take prices up to their corresponding valuation levels.

Will we see that in all coins? Take a look at this and answer the question yourself: http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

If your answer is no, then I agree with you 100%. There are tons of shit coins, tons of abandoned coins, tons of scam coins, etc., etc., that will die in the waste bin of crypto history.

Will the rest all go up at the same time, or more or less “in sync”? My analysis says they won’t. These things begin slowly, gain traction, and then go full steam. It’s not necessarily an overnight phenomenon, that is until you get to the Elliott wave 3, which I believe we are entering, but even then it’s a “process”. The whales get wise and stop dumping once they realize the ride is going to be longer and higher. Their resources are also limited (especially in comparison with the huge amounts of ever growing fiat coming into crypto) and they need to be selective and thus drive the prices of a limited number of “early winners”. Their selectivity in turn is seen by the new fiat coming in who fill their “baskets” with the outperforming names. It’s very circular and perhaps even somewhat self-fulfilling. As the “old timers”, the whales as we better know them, sell to the new fiat at much higher prices, they then “rotate” into lesser known cryptocoins, drive their prices higher, and sell once again to the new fiat that keeps coming in. Rinse and repeat until, at some point, there are no more viable candidates left to “invest” in and all the winners are "fairly" priced. Has this process begun already. Will your coin be included in the winning groups? And which group will it be in? The first to rise? The second? Or will it ever make it at all?

Total market cap is still less than 10 percent of Apple’s market cap. That’s just Apple, and just to name a very famous case that is often cited when making relative comparisons of public companies. Now, put Apple into the relative context of a 13 trillion dollar M2 money stock just in the US (more than 50 trillion developed economies combined money stock), and it’s just a drop in the ocean.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

This writing is not definitive, nor is it meant to be anything more than food for thought and something to create lively conversation on the subject where more data, opinions and perspectives are added to the mix. I "invested" less than 45 minutes in this, so please forgive the lack of footnotes and exhaustive argumentation. The idea is to start a conversation that I hope you will engage in and enjoy yourself while doing so (and perhaps even make a little more money too!).

For the perhaps 50 or so coins that really are viable, I think we can say goodbye to P&D and hello to real ratio adjusted valuations.

What do you think?

"If you don't want people to know you're a scumbag then don't be a scumbag." -- margaritahuyan
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May 20, 2017, 09:15:57 AM
 #2

I really think the era of pump and dump is over and the day Chinese lost control of decided when price of bitcoin should go up or come down was the day that circle stop. We the bitcoin enthusiasts has try to tells people around us to see bitcoin as a currency of future and now they are regretting not investing earlier.
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May 20, 2017, 11:31:30 AM
 #3

Pump and dump is natural to the market and even now it is occurring and there are no regulations being placed on the exchange systems. If you notice on the stock market pump and dump is present and much worse this pump and dump was a day to day occurrence to cryptocurrency market. The only way to stop the pump and dump is the unwavering support of people towards a certain currency just like what is happening to bitcoin right now.
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May 20, 2017, 12:03:57 PM
 #4

I really think the era of pump and dump is over and the day Chinese lost control of decided when price of bitcoin should go up or come down was the day that circle stop. We the bitcoin enthusiasts has try to tells people around us to see bitcoin as a currency of future and now they are regretting not investing earlier.

The pump and dump era is over for bitcoin only and this is good news.
Unfortunately there are hundreds of altcoins and lots of crypto "gamblers" and "investors".
They all feed the pump&dump "business".
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May 20, 2017, 12:16:33 PM
 #5

The era of pump and dump is far from being over.You will see this happening again. It's just a question of time.The alts will crash. To me this is set in stone. If bitcoin should bubble, which it isn't so far, it will get dumped as well.
Altcoins will correct 80-90% imo. And in worst case it will take Bitcoin down to a certain percentage as well.In a best case scenario some huge amounts of the alt money will push Bitcoin up as people may see it as the safe net! 
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May 20, 2017, 12:46:12 PM
 #6

some of what you say makes sense but i can not agree with your main subject. the pump and dump era is not over at all. and if anything it has just started and it is getting big.

for bitcoin this era has been getting smaller and smaller to a point that i can say that it is negligable but it still exists. we saw an example of it in March when a simple FUD wave caused the dumps.

but for altcoins it is getting stronger. and all the money you are saying is coming in is actually investing into a bubble and into these pumps. these things only make things more catastrophic not better.
the altcoin pumpers have not gone anywhere and not many things have changed about altcoins, so there is no reason for anything to change about their pumps and the fact that these pumpers would want their money out to buy another altcoin cheap to pump it to 1000x and make another profit.

you see they don't want it to be over. pump and dump being over means the 1000x profit era is over for them, so they won't let it happen.

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May 20, 2017, 01:34:44 PM
 #7

The era of pump and dump is really getting to an end but I will not totally conclude that it has ended because the stability has not been enjoyed long enough to take a stand on it. Its true that the Chinese influence on the price of bitcoin has dropped but not totally. Also, we cannot also conclude that P&D is only coming from that end because if a major news should break from either Japan or Russia or even Switzerland then the effect could be massive.
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May 20, 2017, 01:53:40 PM
 #8

i like the word that you say OP people are now getting wiser and with other's said that looking on its perspective as an asset and not only for
pumped and dumped system. as bitcoin already getting really support coming from more investors traders who believes first are now enjoying
the fruit of their success.

 
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May 20, 2017, 02:56:43 PM
 #9

that is what they want you to believe. and when you start really believing it, then BAM! they dump on you and you are crushed under the load of altcoins when you are just bag holding and kicking yourself asking why did i leave bitcoin for these.

the market is surely bigger and a lot more money has came in but it really doesn't change things. the whales who dump to get the money out to better things are so much bigger now compared to the total money that came in Wink

to the moon with bitcoin...
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May 20, 2017, 03:52:36 PM
 #10

nothing, but nothing, presently justifies its valuation. there's no more usage than there was a few months ago.

at the same time when you look at figures like coinbase published recently about new users and the japanese banks applying to create crypto exchanges, the weight of newcomers might well cancel out the possibility of major dumps.

it depends on whether they keep on coming and we end up with an eternal september situation. but sooner rather than later all these coins need to actually deliver something tangible.

and thread titles reminds me of two phrases - 'this time it's different' and 'new paradigm' and we all know what happens next when they're thrown around.
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May 20, 2017, 04:00:27 PM
 #11

The era of pump and dump is really getting to an end but I will not totally conclude that it has ended because the stability has not been enjoyed long enough to take a stand on it. Its true that the Chinese influence on the price of bitcoin has dropped but not totally. Also, we cannot also conclude that P&D is only coming from that end because if a major news should break from either Japan or Russia or even Switzerland then the effect could be massive.

I am really happy as i see no real pump dump of bitcoins. This clearly means that what high bitcoin price we see now is the real price and it is a stable price. We all need stable high price of bitcoins and this will give more trust among the people.
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May 20, 2017, 07:04:50 PM
Last edit: May 21, 2017, 06:56:33 PM by raven7886
 #12

The era of pump and dump is really getting to an end but I will not totally conclude that it has ended because the stability has not been enjoyed long enough to take a stand on it. Its true that the Chinese influence on the price of bitcoin has dropped but not totally. Also, we cannot also conclude that P&D is only coming from that end because if a major news should break from either Japan or Russia or even Switzerland then the effect could be massive.
The pump and dump is not related to an one time period but it is a sort of a strategy used by traders intentionally to pump and dump the coin to their own benefits.

Lots of altcoin dev are doing this practice and fooling a lot of innocent people. With Bitcoin, it is difficulty to keep the pump and dump strategy one because of it high volume and secondly its too high a price now to play such games.
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May 20, 2017, 07:26:52 PM
 #13

The era of pump and dump is really getting to an end but I will not totally conclude that it has ended because the stability has not been enjoyed long enough to take a stand on it. Its true that the Chinese influence on the price of bitcoin has dropped but not totally. Also, we cannot also conclude that P&D is only coming from that end because if a major news should break from either Japan or Russia or even Switzerland then the effect could be massive.
The pump and dump is not related to an one time period but it is a sort of a strategy used by traders intentionally to pump and dump the coin to their own benefits. Lots of altcoin dev are doing this practice and fooling a lot of innocent people. With Bitcoin, it is difficulty to keep the pump and dump strategy one because of it high volume and secondly its too high a price now to play such games.

I think pump and dump are still prevalent in the altcoin market. This practice is fraudulent to begin with, but it can't be stopped. This is a strategy by most professional traders and big investors alike. And its the newbie that are mostly affected by this because they don't know what hit them, so they panic sell just to recover. While the big whales are profiting out of it.

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May 20, 2017, 07:56:50 PM
 #14

Pump and Dump never ends it just takes on a different form, we view every market transaction as an experiment and we are always learning from them and looking for an opportunity to get better some ideas work really well and some we need to look into.
Right now some investors know the history and the trends but as more people come into the market they will not have the lessons of the old timers and repeat old mistakes that is when a dump occurs ^^.
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May 20, 2017, 08:51:52 PM
 #15


The era of pump and dump is far from being over.You will see this happening again. It's just a question of time.The alts will crash. To me this is set in stone. If bitcoin should bubble, which it isn't so far, it will get dumped as well.
Altcoins will correct 80-90% imo. And in worst case it will take Bitcoin down to a certain percentage as well.In a best case scenario some huge amounts of the alt money will push Bitcoin up as people may see it as the safe net!  

That’s certainly the “other side of the coin” - “what we’ve known until now” - but assuming that things will always be the same never works forever. Regimen changes can cost a lot of money to those entrenched in outdated thinking. It’s important to avoid falling into that trap, and, well, that’s the reason for this thread.

I think we can all agree that the question about reasonable valuations for solid performing products like STEEM or BTS, to name but two examples, is not a question of if, but when. Those are two stellar examples, Freudian slip intended, but there are many more. Many more. LTC is not going away anytime soon, rather it will be trading at its 4:1 ratio with BTC sooner or later, don't you think?

Sooner or later. At some point there’s a paradigm shift. Sooner or later. Agreed? Could it be happening now?


nothing, but nothing, presently justifies its valuation. there's no more usage than there was a few months ago.

at the same time when you look at figures like coinbase published recently about new users and the japanese banks applying to create crypto exchanges, the weight of newcomers might well cancel out the possibility of major dumps.

it depends on whether they keep on coming and we end up with an eternal september situation. but sooner rather than later all these coins need to actually deliver something tangible.

and thread titles reminds me of two phrases - 'this time it's different' and 'new paradigm' and we all know what happens next when they're thrown around.

As I just outlined above, sooner or later we’ll get that new paradigm, why not now?

Japan is getting very crypto friendly very fast. Look out if institutions like the Japanese Government Pension Fund starts getting involved (sooner or later, right?).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Investment_Fund

Money’s number one priority is self-preservation, and there’s big money on the outside looking very seriously at cryptocurrencies, and, in my estimation, already moving into cryptocurrencies in a big way that’s going to get much bigger very soon (but you already know my opinion on that).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-09/bitcoin-soars-over-1700-2017s-best-performing-currency

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May 20, 2017, 08:52:24 PM
 #16


Say goodbye to Pump and Dump. The era of ratio adjusted valuations has arrived.

I first commented on what I identified as the first major influx of fiat capital flow into crypto over a year ago. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1095434.0

Now a year later, others are starting to get wise too.

http://www.coindesk.com/second-wave-bitcoin-price-growth-may-just-beginning/ (The author’s referring to the 2nd wave *up*, or the 3rd wave in Elliott Wave terminology.)
http://www.coindesk.com/800-growth-q1s-top-performing-cryptocurrencies-posted-big-gains/
http://www.altcointoday.com/billionaire-investor-holds-10-percent-of-life-savings-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/japanese-investors-might-be-fueling-the-next-altcoin-bubble (Take note that P&D legacy influences the author’s title and conclusion – preconceived notions will get you your head handed to you.)

And the articles are becoming more and more proliferate every day.

If you accept the thesis that this “new” money knows basically nothing about the technology itself and only knows that some small part of its portfolio needs to be allocated to this emerging economic reality, and if one of the pillars of modern investing is diversification, then we can conclude that this new money will be spread out over a “basket” of cryptocurrencies. By no means can we even begin to think that non-tech money will target specific cryptocoins. This new money will most likely be targeted at the sector as a whole.

And how will valuation be analyzed and estimated? It will be done just like it’s always been done: by ratio adjustment. If BTC is worth “a” and XYZ coin has a supply 10 times greater, then XYZ will be worth “a” * 0.1. Very simple. Extremely simple. Ultimately BTC will be tied to the USD in the same way, just like all currencies are tied to each other. Of course, there are fluctuations in their relative pricings based on wider economic factors, but just as we never see a 10% overnight change in the EUR/USD, soon we’ll never see huge pumps and dumps again.

I think we’re going to see huge pumps that DON’T dump, and that take prices up to their corresponding valuation levels.

Will we see that in all coins? Take a look at this and answer the question yourself: http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

If your answer is no, then I agree with you 100%. There are tons of shit coins, tons of abandoned coins, tons of scam coins, etc., etc., that will die in the waste bin of crypto history.

Will the rest all go up at the same time, or more or less “in sync”? My analysis says they won’t. These things begin slowly, gain traction, and then go full steam. It’s not necessarily an overnight phenomenon, that is until you get to the Elliott wave 3, which I believe we are entering, but even then it’s a “process”. The whales get wise and stop dumping once they realize the ride is going to be longer and higher. Their resources are also limited (especially in comparison with the huge amounts of ever growing fiat coming into crypto) and they need to be selective and thus drive the prices of a limited number of “early winners”. Their selectivity in turn is seen by the new fiat coming in who fill their “baskets” with the outperforming names. It’s very circular and perhaps even somewhat self-fulfilling. As the “old timers”, the whales as we better know them, sell to the new fiat at much higher prices, they then “rotate” into lesser known cryptocoins, drive their prices higher, and sell once again to the new crypto that keeps coming in. Rinse and repeat until, at some point, there are no more viable candidates left to “invest” in and all the winners are "fairly" priced. Will your coin be included in the winning groups? And which group will it be in? The first to rise? The second? Or will it ever make it at all?

Total market cap is still less than 10 percent of Apple’s market cap. That’s just Apple, and just to name a very famous case that is often cited when making relative comparisons of public companies. Now, put Apple into the relative context of a 13 trillion dollar M2 money stock just in the US (more than 50 trillion developed economies combined money stock), and it’s just a drop in the ocean.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply

This writing is not definitive, nor is it meant to be anything more than food for thought and something to create lively conversation on the subject where more data, opinions and perspectives are added to the mix. I "invested" less than 45 minutes in this, so please forgive the lack of footnotes and exhaustive argumentation. The idea is to start a conversation that I hope you will engage in and enjoy yourself while doing so (and perhaps even make a little more money too!).

For the perhaps 50 or so coins that really are viable, I think we can say goodbye to P&D and hello to real ratio adjusted valuations.

What do you think?

Pls could you send me a list of undervalued coins that you feel?

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May 20, 2017, 09:00:32 PM
 #17

Contrary to what all the positive articles are saying dumps are not over and they will keep happening. Some people have hold enough Bitcoins to singlehandedly cause a big crash. They would be stupid to do it because they'd lose a lot and it would be much wiser to sell slow, but it's possible. These people will have to sell eventually and some of them might not want to wait and convert their stash in portions.

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May 20, 2017, 09:17:33 PM
Last edit: May 23, 2017, 10:29:00 PM by HR
 #18


Pls could you send me a list of undervalued coins that you feel?

Based on a strict particular ALTcoin to BTC ratio, the most undervalued of my current favorite candidates for immediate price revaluation are:

NXT and SYS, both extremely solid 1st generation coins that are more than 500 times undervalued.

BTS and STEEM (already mention in my previous post) are both more than 250 times undervalued.

Want a stalwart that's guaranteed to always be there? How about LTC? 84 million total eventual supply is 4:1 with BTC. How long until LTC trades at $500? So, by that measure, LTC is 20 times undervalued.

Turn this equation around and you've got extremely good risk/reward on these, what I consider to be, phenomenal opportunities, again, as is central to this thread, as long as we're not witnessing a P&D on a massive scale that's beyond imagination. (I know it's hard to buy the highs . . .)

Those are my "stars" ATM. There are tons of 2nd tier coins ... XMG, GRS, DMD, NLG, XMY, etc., ... that are even more undervalued and worth watching closely, but I expect those to correct more than my stars and to give us second, and even third chances, to repeat the experience, but we'll have to see how things develop on that first.  Wink

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May 21, 2017, 09:01:26 AM
 #19

Thanks for your insight HR.

My pleasure. And now for yours? Wink

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May 21, 2017, 09:25:54 AM
 #20

I do not think the dumps are necessarily over (still thinly traded markets), but agree with the notion that - should the crypto currency growth endure - there will be a steady inflow of money seeking a part of this. And yes, definitely some of it will go into larger altcoins, if only as a speculative bet.

And all of this is good as long as the user base keeps growing, on to applications usable in real life. For now, I settle for Bitcoin's excellent 'decentralised trust' mechanism. Not a bad feature for medium term thinking, looking at the path major fiat currencies are currently taking.

Comparing Bitcoin with other investments by numbers, this is still very tiny and thus subject to major price variations. So also dumps I think. And there is no shock absorber  Cool

I sure hope early coins like Devcoin will make it to the other side. On the other hand, no coin really dies if there are two people sending each other coins  Roll Eyes

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