Bitcoin is not anywhere close to a BUBBLE - Altcoins are in a BUBBLE!

[User705]

But last time alt coins collapsed along with bitcoin.  Not sure it will be that much different this time.  The top is always characterized by stupid alt coin valuations.  I mean DOGE is up x10!  WTF!  June-July Chinese BTC gets released.  That will show what's what. 

[Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale]

A good point you make comparing BTC's 10x rise in 2013 in 3 months to barely doubling over 3 months recently. When I talk to others, even those that I've recommended investing in btc that have, or lament about not having done so, they often ask is it in a bubble (For non-financey people it's "is the price too high, should I sell?")  I tell em that 10k was what many big industry players thought the price might go to in 2013 during the last rise, around there might be where it'd be good to take stock of things during this run, which I think is only getting started. BTC is still tiny, gota not fall into the trap of thinking - it's not likely or less likely to rise, because it has already increased - comparing it to other mkt's it is still a minow.
XRP may keep rising longterm, it offers a unique trust model. Nem, honestly I did a bit of reading and research, not too much admittedly because I really couldn't find anything that unique or interesting about Nem. But then again I dismissed Gamecredits and followed that since launch, ow ow ow ow  >.<

[d5000]

I am not so sure any conventional tradeing system analysis can apply to BTC tech.

I see it as BTC is expanding into the existing money sphere, and there is nothing to stop it.

Yes, I know the "technologic adoption" theory. But that's a long term theory. Here in this thread we are talking about short- and medium-term overheatings (called popularly "bubbles" ). I am also long term bullish on cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular (if the Segwit discussion does not ruin its leadership) but I get the impression that the price evolution is overheating, as of now. Obviously, most altcoins are overheating even more. I am really surprised that some coins that have no real usage still grow - the crash will be even harder then.

Apart from that, I cannot see real "mainstream adoption" advances in 2017 so far. The "Japan hype" is probably only a speculative bubble as there is little-to-none growth if you take the number of full nodes in Japan as a measure (around 80, the same as in early April).

[megashira1]

*yawn*



This trend will continue until BTC reaches $4k

[malami]

I think its more accurate to say everything is in a bubble, bitcoin doesn't get a free pass. When the bubble bursts alts will drop lower due to the bigger rise but bitcoin is headed down at some point too. Every single time it goes up so fast people say there is no bubble but it always ends up crashing.

[megashira1]

I think its more accurate to say everything is in a bubble, bitcoin doesn't get a free pass. When the bubble bursts alts will drop lower due to the bigger rise but bitcoin is headed down at some point too. Every single time it goes up so fast people say there is no bubble but it always ends up crashing.

BTC will reach a tipping point but its bubble is at the early stages. First all the new $ needs to filter into it via ALTs ..

[d5000]

First all the new $ needs to filter into it via ALTs ..

Not necessarily. Many of the larger altcoins are actually listed on exchanges where they can directly be traded to USD, CNY, JPY or EUR - for example, Kraken.

So there is no need for the panic-sellers to go through Bitcoin when leaving the altcoin ship.

Even if some of them leave the altcoin ship via Bitcoin, that won't increase Bitcoin's USD/EUR/JPY price necessarily. Because some of them - mostly the scared panic-sellers - would directly sell their BTC to fiat and drive down the price even further.

The only hope for Bitcoin is that some altcoin speculators discover the "secure cryptocurrency gold" and invest medium- or long-term in it. But that's not close to being mandatory. If Bitcoin's price goes further down, then it's far more probable that they will sell their coins for fiat.

[Salsifis]

Both are in the greatest bubble of their history. However, I think both bubbles are will not pop out too violently and will keep somehow their actual values.

[AK47-]

If we go by the bitcoin chart. Anybody can say that it is a bubble. Whenever such situations occur in stock or commodity or any other currency as happening with bitcoin at present, they usually end up in tears. There will be correction going to take place that too soon. All the signs are there, from a distorted chart to ridiculous predictions, but for those who believe that Bitcoin really is the future that doesn’t matter. People like me will keep on holding.

[BitcoinPC]

But last time alt coins collapsed along with bitcoin.  Not sure it will be that much different this time.  The top is always characterized by stupid alt coin valuations.  I mean DOGE is up x10!  WTF!  June-July Chinese BTC gets released.  That will show what's what. 

I think only altcoins are tend to go up and down and we need to closely monitor them if we need really trading them. For bitcoins the prices are real ones and there is no bubble. Even though the prices are rising up high but these are all due to the demand and trust which bitcoin has developed over the time. The Bitcoin high prices are making the altcoin rise to such a extent as you mentioned Doge 10x prices and similarly many other altcoins.

[Catmony]

Things have changed a lot these days, bitcoin no longer have huge dominance. This shows people are also interested in alts and this may remain same for next few years, alts price is still very small which can be pumped easily so biggest bubble is on alts not in bitcoin.

[d5000]

OK, the bubble popped now - both in Bitcoin and in altcoins.

If you see Coinmarketcap now, you can see that - like I expected - altcoins have lost more value than Bitcoin in this downward move. For example, BTC as of now lost 11% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum 16% and NEM, ETC and LTC more than 20%, and there are only 5 smaller alts in the top 100 that could increase their price measured in USD. That will probably continue to be the dominant trend in the coming days and weeks, even if there will be, sure, dead cat bounces of descending highs.

[dothebeats]

Sure the $2700 was a bubble as well and not just the altcoin markets. Bitcoin, though a rather stronger asset ckmpared to alts, is also in a bubble. See how both assets share both trends? Only in the alt market it is a much higher increase/decrease. I don't see that the $2000 market will hold for long, but if it does, then this bubble isn't over yet perhaps.

[ridery99]

Yes they are, except Litecoin.

[Denker]

Things have changed a lot these days, bitcoin no longer have huge dominance. This shows people are also interested in alts and this may remain same for next few years, alts price is still very small which can be pumped easily so biggest bubble is on alts not in bitcoin.

95% of the shitcoins is vaporware and will end as penny stocks or completely disappear.
Lot's of people will get burned and learn it the hard way that in the long term Bitcoin is the right coin to pick for a solid value.
But of course you can try to find the needle in that huge altcoin hey stack. That's like buying a lottery ticket.

[Slow death]

We need to kill ETH first.

ha ha ha ha ha

You told a very good joke.

Yes they are, except Litecoin.

 

Ha ha ha

I agree, LTC is different. Ha ha ha

OK, the bubble popped now - both in Bitcoin and in altcoins.

If you see Coinmarketcap now, you can see that - like I expected - altcoins have lost more value than Bitcoin in this downward move. For example, BTC as of now lost 11% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum 16% and NEM, ETC and LTC more than 20%, and there are only 5 smaller alts in the top 100 that could increase their price measured in USD. That will probably continue to be the dominant trend in the coming days and weeks, even if there will be, sure, dead cat bounces of descending highs.

In poloniex it's all red

[talkbitcoin]

OK, the bubble popped now - both in Bitcoin and in altcoins.

If you see Coinmarketcap now, you can see that - like I expected - altcoins have lost more value than Bitcoin in this downward move. For example, BTC as of now lost 11% in the last 24 hours, Ethereum 16% and NEM, ETC and LTC more than 20%, and there are only 5 smaller alts in the top 100 that could increase their price measured in USD. That will probably continue to be the dominant trend in the coming days and weeks, even if there will be, sure, dead cat bounces of descending highs.

it is all about who buys these things.
for bitcoin there will always be a demand from all kinds of different people, investors aka speculators who just want to trade, newbies who want to play at this game of speculation aka panic sellers, many people who find out about this great technology, many who want to spend it as a currency and a lot more.

but for altcoins there is nothing to use them in. the only usage they have is to be traded so anybody who buys them is either an speculator or a newbie panic seller.

when dumping begins panic sellers start in the second phase to shake themselves out and since altcoin market is full of them it will crash much harder and since the demand is never there it crashes even harder.

but with bitcoin as we have seen many times, the dump comes panic sellers create that beautiful big red candle all the way down and on the bottom the whales are ready to greet them with their open buy orders.

[ngin-x]

If you look at it percentage wise, Bitcoin's growth has been relatively healthy. Sure it can go down a bit in the short term but there are too many bulls behind BTC at the moment and they will drive the price back up.

But I am worried about the altcoins. Each and every altcoin including the ones that nobody would touch with a barge pole has been pumped to high heaven in the last 50 days.

Ethereum has grown nearly 40x in the last few months. How is that sustainable despite all the good fundamentals? Some of the other lesser known alt coins have seen even 100x or 200x growth. I think we are going to come down hard at some point and it will happen so fast that we will have no place to hide  

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I hope the OP is right & altcoins are in a bubble, their growth especially ETH has been huge. They need bringing down to earth. Hopefully all the money flows back into bitcoin.

[d5000]

but for altcoins there is nothing to use them in. the only usage they have is to be traded so anybody who buys them is either an speculator or a newbie panic seller.

For now, yes. But I don't deny that some altcoins have the potential to have real world use cases in the future.

By the way: My opinion about the topic of this thread has changed a bit. With UASF, UAHF and similar solutions, Bitcoin's leadership is at risk more than ever. If the U*-Solutions make progress, then Bitcoin is definitively overvalued and I think neither of the chains (UASF, UAHF and legacy) will have a price of more than $1000. Some altcoins, like ETH and Ripple (the only two that have really significant usage for now), could then be stabler than Bitcoin.