Does not really make sense to me - any ideas where I might be wrong ?
If not - we might see a big dot-com like bubble burst soon ....
My idea is that crypto is in a bubble since 2009, because that's what bitcoin and the rest of crypto were designed for: assets that are easy to come by in the beginning, and then, get scarce when more people know about it.
I don't know of any instant in time (well, a part from the very first bitcoin years maybe) when the bitcoin price reflected the demand for coins to buy stuff with (that is, as a currency). I think that bitcoin and the rest of crypto has always been price-determined by:
1) buying/mining/holding coins because they might gain in value, to sell them higher than what we put in it in the long term
2) trading, that is, try to buy them somewhat lower, and sell them somewhat higher in the short term
That doesn't mean that bitcoin in particular has not been used also as a means of payment (especially in dark markets), but I think that the demand for coins "in order to buy stuff with" has rarely been the price setter.
As such, technical parameters rarely matter, and adoption as a currency is rather contra-productive to high speculative value (the more it is circulated as a currency, the higher its velocity, and the lower its price will be). The price you see has not much to do with, nor, the block chain technology, nor the real world usage (contract, currency, ...) but is the price of an abstract speculative token on exchanges (mainly poloniex).
You can easily see this when coins rise a manifold in price, and their transaction volume on chain remains essentially constant (and sometimes small). Price setting has nothing to do with what happens on the block chain.
But this is even true for bitcoin. Given that the blocks are full, essentially, its adoption cannot rise (it cannot be used more as a currency) ; but nevertheless, the price rose by a factor of more than 2 in less than half a year. When you do a quick estimation, though, you see that bitcoin's market cap has always been a large multitude of the market cap it would have been if its demand were that of a currency. So bitcoin too, has a price that is entirely disconnected from its block chain happenings or usage, and I claim that this has even always been the case.