Opening predictions

[DrYe5]

Will the 24 hours after Mt. Gox opens look like the 24 hours before it opened on Tradehill?

Some Charts of Interest

Facts:
Money doesn't transfer fast enough to pull cash out of Mt. Gox and into another exchange.

Until Mt. Gox opened, the majority of the trading bitcoins were frozen assets without absolute guarantee of return.

Only 100 BTC per account could possibly have been moved to tradehill for liquidation.

The ratio of buyers to sellers on TH favored sellers by a significant margin.

Unlike before this happened, everyone knows the largest bitcoin exchange is currently run by two dudes in Japan who are arguably unprofessional, to say the least.

[1714960360]

1714960360

[DrYe5]

Prepare for retesting of lows at $12 - $10 - or even $8. Lots of technical resistance at $8 and wealthy supporters should defend there.

[Serge]

many people trying to dumb the price down last couple of days

we'll see how it goes...

[DrYe5]

many people trying to dumb the price down last couple of days

we'll see how it goes...

I'm not sure what you mean. Could you phrase that as a sentence?

[peach]

I see $19 a few hours after it opens.

[Serge]

many people trying to dumb the price down last couple of days

we'll see how it goes...

I'm not sure what you mean. Could you phrase that as a sentence?

re-phrasing: speculators will speculate.

[Hunterbunter]

ooo I predict 0.01 to 30 all in one day

[marvinmartian]

Opening predictions are highly speculative at best.

What we need is for the price to go back somewhat in line with difficulty level (which just rose more than 50%) plus some minor variation of course to allow for good and healthy trading ranges.

So if it doesn't stabilize somewhere between $15-$20 it's a bad thing bitconomically speaking.

[zaphod]

http://www.homebrew.com/articles/images2/carson.jpg


The Swami predicts..................



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[DrYe5]

The Swami predicts..................



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[marvinmartian]

The Swami predicts..................



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MySQL ... really?  Wow.  Glad to see they've invested in some high performance, rock solid, database technology.

[DrYe5]

If Mt. Gox fails to open trading we can expect another round of 100 BTC sell-offs on TH.

[Jack of Diamonds]

What we need is for the price to go back somewhat in line with difficulty level

Only if the community wants payments to keep processing in the network.

Speculators and regular people couldn't care less about the difficulty of generating blocks and the expenses involved.
They just want bitcoins.

If they panic or refuse to buy at a certain price point then the price wont go up, simple as that.

[marvinmartian]

What we need is for the price to go back somewhat in line with difficulty level

Only if the community wants payments to keep processing in the network.

Speculators and regular people couldn't care less about the difficulty of generating blocks and the expenses involved.
They just want bitcoins.

If they panic or refuse to buy at a certain price point then the price wont go up, simple as that.

I contend that a decent number of speculators are also miners at this stage of the game.  If you have $10k to set up a rig, you have $10k to speculate.

[marvinmartian]

Oh, and I change my opening prediction to:

   Mt. Gox will NOT open today.

So the opening price will remain at $0.

[S3052]

When will it open , finally?