Poll: Bear trap or Bull trap?

[zoolander]

Where are we in the this current cycle?

Is this a bear trap (correction) as "early investors" take profits before this current bull run goes truly main stream? (We might be looking at $5K-$10K if the bull run continues)

OR

Is this a bull trap before we see a complete capitulation over the next few days and weeks? (We might see a price somewhere around 2013 ATH - not that we should hold much value in that ATH given the circumstances)

OR

Something else?

Personally I liquidated about 30% of my crypto portfolio including BTC at around $2350. I'm targeting a fairly aggressive/pessimistic re-buy in at $1500 for BTC ($60 for ETC, $0.05 XRP and $15 XMR), but we could see lower IMO if we continue to go down. (I'll be happy either way - the majority of my portfolio is all based on BTC bought at $50-$70)

If we see consolidation at around this $1900-2000 level into the middle of next week I'll consider my options again. Still, this will be no guarantee that we are not going side ways for some time or haven't started a longer term bear market.

Ultimately I think BTC has some very serious problems to address at the moment before we really have the fundamentals to move beyond the recent peak and truly go mainstream. These are precarious times for BTC, especially when you have alts which, whilst far more overvalued IMO, could be said to have better fundamentals in terms of tech and developer adoption. IMO, it would be far more healthy for BTC if this correction/crash forced miners and devs to get their shit together and we saw some stability and calm return to the markets. I think everyone is exhausted both mentally and financially.

Thoughts? Smart considered analysis seems very thin on the ground the moment in all this craziness...

[White sugar]

In the long run, all falls are bear traps. See the weekly chart would make it clear

[zoolander]

In the long run, all falls are bear traps. See the weekly chart would make it clear

*YAWN*

[alani123]

I think that the peak of the rally was most certainly a bull trap. New buyers got caught into holding the bags as rampant profit taking started.

[spiderbrain]

Gut feeling is bull trap, but it's too risky being wrong to bet on it. I'm 15% out.

[RoommateAgreement]

If we see consolidation at around this $1900-2000 level into the middle of next week I'll consider my options again. Still, this will be no guarantee that we are not going side ways for some time or haven't started a longer term bear market.

this. and i voted for something else too. and i believe we will see a boring phase around $1900-$2100 for some time now.

also i disagree with bitcoin having "serious" problems. the biggest problem we have is the war itself not the reason for the war. and mainstream is not gonna happen by just fixing these things, that will take a long time and the willingness of people to use bitcoin not just some speculators hoarding it.

[zoolander]

also i disagree with bitcoin having "serious" problems. the biggest problem we have is the war itself not the reason for the war. and mainstream is not gonna happen by just fixing these things, that will take a long time and the willingness of people to use bitcoin not just some speculators hoarding it.

I think current confirmation times, transaction fees and general scalability issues are serious problem for healthy mass adoption - certainly for B2C use cases such as paying for things online and bricks & mortar retailers. Otherwise we will have the exactly scenario you mention - speculators hoarding and little else.

[BitcoinBarrel]

There was only one Bull trap, and that was 2013-2014. Bitcoin has long been stable, and people forget the Block Reward halved last year.

There is only one way for Bitcoin to go, and that is UP. Get your cheap coins while you can. $10k here we come!

[RoommateAgreement]

also i disagree with bitcoin having "serious" problems. the biggest problem we have is the war itself not the reason for the war. and mainstream is not gonna happen by just fixing these things, that will take a long time and the willingness of people to use bitcoin not just some speculators hoarding it.

I think current confirmation times, transaction fees and general scalability issues are serious problem for healthy mass adoption - certainly for B2C use cases such as paying for things online and bricks & mortar retailers. Otherwise we will have the exactly scenario you mention - speculators hoarding and little else.

because we are very far from that mass adoption i said bitcoin currently has no serious issues. but i am well aware of the problems that you are pointing out and things are moving slowly but at least they are moving forward regarding that.

and as far as current price and the way it is rising is concerned, it is mostly because of new investors that price is going up not because of "mass adoption" or "mainstream adoption" and they don't seem to care about paying $1 fee per transaction to invest in bitcoin that goes up from $1000 to $2700 in 6 months

[European Central Bank]

chop and then downwards gets my vote. the real action happens towards the end of the year. in the middle there'll be all that uasf stuff that either inspires a scaling compromise or introduces loads of uncertainty.

[BurstIncomeAsset]

Now it is more than proved that was a short lived bear trap. I feel bad for those who sold

[Siren]

If we see consolidation at around this $1900-2000 level into the middle of next week I'll consider my options again. Still, this will be no guarantee that we are not going side ways for some time or haven't started a longer term bear market.

this. and i voted for something else too. and i believe we will see a boring phase around $1900-$2100 for some time now.

also i disagree with bitcoin having "serious" problems. the biggest problem we have is the war itself not the reason for the war. and mainstream is not gonna happen by just fixing these things, that will take a long time and the willingness of people to use bitcoin not just some speculators hoarding it.

I think we have started to see a boring phase now $2200. I think we need to watch how the market moves going forward. It could be moving sideways, we still don't know. So I suggest just to watch it carefully in the next couple of days and see where its going to be. (bull or bear trap!)

[Golftech]

Now it is more than proved that was a short lived bear trap. I feel bad for those who sold

lesson learned i guess especially for those new investors who's been shaken when the price falls down and yet they sold their holding thinking that it will fall along the way there's really a certain study before placing your money into crypto industry better to be more observant and keep researching to avoid certain mistakes like this.

[btc_angela]

Now it is more than proved that was a short lived bear trap. I feel bad for those who sold

lesson learned i guess especially for those new investors who's been shaken when the price falls down and yet they sold their holding thinking that it will fall along the way there's really a certain study before placing your money into crypto industry better to be more observant and keep researching to avoid certain mistakes like this.

Very well a hard lesson indeed to learn for some newbie investors. They are really shaken to see the price dip and their investment at loss. In crypto's that how they play, the weak hands gets slaughtered while the strong hands is gaining profits. For sure they will make their decision wisely if another wave of correction happens.

[jjacob]

I think it is a bear trap, but this trap isn't going to close quickly.
There will be some consolidation at these levels and then we will see the next bull run.

[Amadues]

IMO it is just bear trap for short term traders.  In  weekly chart price is going up, investors are looking for cheap price. For taking long position you need liquidity which will result hit on buyer's stops. If you can read "order flow" from chart, bitcoin price is still in correction mode from its strong rally on latest weeks. Major correction will continue till sell orders will match with  huge buy orders. Uptrend will continue after hitting buy stops on bullish trend lines with support at $1940 and $1800. Long term hawkish trend will continue after this short term correction.

[leowonderful]

This is proof why you should just HODL Bitcoin- short term traders are and will be getting fucked as the trend is still upwards, if you bought at the top HODL. Don't take the losses unless you need the money. Long term price will likely go up, but I'd wait a little bit longer to see what's going to happen. We don't have an idea of that.

[lottery248]

IMO i have no idea of which kind of trap i should propose, because bitcoin price is still in the breathing cycle. else <$1900 for bull trap and >$2500 this month is a bear trap, depends on how the trend affected by external cases such as Segwit is.

[bitjoin]

The 1850 move could very easy be the bottom.  That is a very large drop from 2700.  People expecting more but bitcoin is very hard to move price these days with all the exchanges.

[ktabb]

Where are we in the this current cycle?

Is this a bear trap (correction) as "early investors" take profits before this current bull run goes truly main stream? (We might be looking at $5K-$10K if the bull run continues)

OR

Is this a bull trap before we see a complete capitulation over the next few days and weeks? (We might see a price somewhere around 2013 ATH - not that we should hold much value in that ATH given the circumstances)

OR

Something else?

Personally I liquidated about 30% of my crypto portfolio including BTC at around $2350. I'm targeting a fairly aggressive/pessimistic re-buy in at $1500 for BTC ($60 for ETC, $0.05 XRP and $15 XMR), but we could see lower IMO if we continue to go down. (I'll be happy either way - the majority of my portfolio is all based on BTC bought at $50-$70)

If we see consolidation at around this $1900-2000 level into the middle of next week I'll consider my options again. Still, this will be no guarantee that we are not going side ways for some time or haven't started a longer term bear market.

Ultimately I think BTC has some very serious problems to address at the moment before we really have the fundamentals to move beyond the recent peak and truly go mainstream. These are precarious times for BTC, especially when you have alts which, whilst far more overvalued IMO, could be said to have better fundamentals in terms of tech and developer adoption. IMO, it would be far more healthy for BTC if this correction/crash forced miners and devs to get their shit together and we saw some stability and calm return to the markets. I think everyone is exhausted both mentally and financially.

Thoughts? Smart considered analysis seems very thin on the ground the moment in all this craziness...

I don't think it will hit $1500 before it hits new all time highs. That being said, we are definitely in a bubble here and I think we will see the $1500 level eventually after a crash. I could easily see it peaking around $4,000-$5000. I wrote a post explaining a few days ago explaining why, for anyone who is interested: https://twitter.com/DemoInvestor/status/867491235296161792