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Author Topic: If China opens BTC withdrawals - would that mean a pump or a dump?  (Read 2077 times)
alyssa85
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May 30, 2017, 01:54:55 PM
 #21

I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

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May 30, 2017, 02:06:43 PM
 #22

I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

I think the capital flight thing was overblown, just as Cypriots and Greeks queued up in their, er, tens to convert to Bitcoin.

I assume withdrawals won't be enabled until they figure how to stop the possibility. It can't be stopped so perhaps there never will be withdrawals again.

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May 30, 2017, 02:12:27 PM
 #23

I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

I think the capital flight thing was overblown, just as Cypriots and Greeks queued up in their, er, tens to convert to Bitcoin.

I assume withdrawals won't be enabled until they figure how to stop the possibility. It can't be stopped so perhaps there never will be withdrawals again.

If it was overblown, why on earth would they pause withdrawals? It must be because they looked at where the coins were being sent, and if they were being sent to western exchanges, then capital flight was definitely taking place. 

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May 30, 2017, 02:12:34 PM
 #24

I'd say Dump.

Here is my reasoning: they stopped withdrawals because they were afraid people were using btc for capital flight. Suppose they were right and once withdrawals are allowed, people will send the bitcoin to a western exchange where they can exchange them for dollars or euros. Or use localbitcoins to cash out in dollars or euros.

Either way, that means selling and hence a dump.

I think the capital flight thing was overblown, just as Cypriots and Greeks queued up in their, er, tens to convert to Bitcoin.

I assume withdrawals won't be enabled until they figure how to stop the possibility. It can't be stopped so perhaps there never will be withdrawals again.

But they allowed ETH withdrawals - ETH can be sent to other exchanges just as easily as BTC.
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May 30, 2017, 02:15:20 PM
 #25

But they allowed ETH withdrawals - ETH can be sent to other exchanges just as easily as BTC.

Good point. But it's also a brand new market and now everyone on there will be KYC'd up the arse. I assume very close tabs will be kept on them. There must be plenty of Bitcoiners on there from years ago who still haven't submitted themselves to cavity searches.

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May 30, 2017, 02:59:53 PM
 #26

I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?

It could go both ways depending on the forces of the market at the pont that its eventually happening that the effect might actually not felt or being felt in a mild way. We also need to stand understanding that bitcoin is growing beyond the control of one country as we seen in recent times that the news of freezing in China is even not affecting the flow of events afterall.

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May 30, 2017, 03:51:50 PM
 #27

if anything, then pump!

Because they can withdraw BTC to Fiat all the time for the last half year. But when they finally can use their Bitcoin again, boy!
Yes, when full life-cycle of trading will be restored for China, I believe they will get back to the business and they will most probably follow the current trend of the markets. We could never forget China's hand in bitcoin appreciation in late 2016. Now bitcoin is doing well without help from Chinese traders and I believe when they will be joining the party we can expect more pump in upcoming days.

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May 30, 2017, 09:08:35 PM
 #28

if anything, then pump!

Because they can withdraw BTC to Fiat all the time for the last half year. But when they finally can use their Bitcoin again, boy!
Yes, when full life-cycle of trading will be restored for China, I believe they will get back to the business and they will most probably follow the current trend of the markets. We could never forget China's hand in bitcoin appreciation in late 2016. Now bitcoin is doing well without help from Chinese traders and I believe when they will be joining the party we can expect more pump in upcoming days.

I'm also thinking that they will likely join the craziness about bitcoin. And with Japan and South Korean putting a lot of cash now, China will push the price more in a new level. They will not let those 2 nations enjoy without them, they still want to  have a piece of the pie, just like old days.



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sonicwave
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May 30, 2017, 09:10:38 PM
 #29

if anything, then pump!

Because they can withdraw BTC to Fiat all the time for the last half year. But when they finally can use their Bitcoin again, boy!
Yes, when full life-cycle of trading will be restored for China, I believe they will get back to the business and they will most probably follow the current trend of the markets. We could never forget China's hand in bitcoin appreciation in late 2016. Now bitcoin is doing well without help from Chinese traders and I believe when they will be joining the party we can expect more pump in upcoming days.
I think that some sort of disposal of the Chinese from the kind of control over Bitcoin will only benefit Bitcoin users for the market itself, because even manipulating the blocks and the volume, this has already caused resentment in many.

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May 31, 2017, 03:11:50 AM
 #30

I don't get it! why do people even assume there is the smallest possibility of a dump?!!
a business was out of business for some time, now it is reopening, that means people using that business is going to come back and start using it again.
in this case the Chinese, the trading lover Chinese, have been going through other channels to quench their thirst for trading bitcoin for the past few months, mostly on other exchanges and on localbitcoins, now their biggest exchanges are coming back. of course they will come back to them and start their trading there.

People tend to speculate positively, so I guess bitcoin trading will increase again in China as they always do. But I'm a little worry about dump after pump such as happened before. We're on good situation right now where Japan and Korean exchanges lead the trading market.
But, it's kinda weird if withdrawal has been discontinued for some time but Huobi and bttc trading volume also increase during last rally even surpassed​ some big exchanges. It may a good sign that they are excited to be involved, don't want to missed the opportunity.

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May 31, 2017, 04:35:12 AM
 #31

the news alone caused a big rise in price of bitcoin / CNY pair so i am going to say chances for a big pump is much higher than any chance of price getting dumped because of them actually opening the withdrawals.

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May 31, 2017, 05:56:59 AM
 #32

I think it is very probable that BTC withdrawals will be open on Chinese exchanges soon. Huobi just added ETH for trading and enabled ETH withdrawals ( https://twitter.com/huobicom/status/868442008402014208, http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/28/huobi-first-big-three-chinese-exchange-enable-ethereum-trading/). It would not make much sense to enable ETH withdrawals but not BTC withdrawals. Also Huobi most probably would not make this change alone.
If my speculation is right - what would it mean? A pump or a dump?
Surely this will be a very big change. Giving loosening of the use of bitcoin in china will make an increase in bitcoin prices worldwide.
We all know that china is a large country with the largest population in the world.

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May 31, 2017, 02:42:49 PM
 #33

could go either way,theoritically should mean dump as traders may want to release their funds
and might as well clear their deposits and withdraw all,to not risk get frozen yet again at some point in time
but at the same time the funds should migrate to another country/exchange where the withdrawal problem should never repeat itself
to be honest with you,bitcoin price  is the second most unpredictable thing in the world (close second after women's logics)
we can theorycraft all we want and then explain why did it happen exactly opposite to what we predicted Smiley

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May 31, 2017, 03:52:54 PM
 #34

OP I think now you have your answer.  Wink

Also, more withdrawals means less coins on exchanges, which in turn mean less to sell + less to short = higher price.
zby
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May 31, 2017, 05:18:10 PM
 #35

Looks like OKCoin has just opened withdrawals: twitter.com/cnLedger/status/869934911179735040 - just as I predicted - but the limits are kind of low.
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May 31, 2017, 05:41:51 PM
 #36

So does that mean that we will be having another rally in the price of bitcoin and the rest of the alt coins,i just sold my holdings because i thought we could see some good correction after a big rally and i am expecting the price of bitcoin to go down below two thousand for a while and with the current news my plans might back fire.
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May 31, 2017, 05:50:11 PM
 #37

So does that mean that we will be having another rally in the price of bitcoin and the rest of the alt coins,i just sold my holdings because i thought we could see some good correction after a big rally and i am expecting the price of bitcoin to go down below two thousand for a while and with the current news my plans might back fire.

It could be, but the point is that the market is bullish, and thus it's likely to see the price go up regardless of Chinese exchanges enabling withdrawals. Other than that, I seriously don't understand why people till this day make the mistake of selling all their coins at once. Instead of risking you having sold to early, just cash out max 25% when you get tempted to sell. People selling everything at once mostly end up in a big disappointment....

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May 31, 2017, 05:58:15 PM
 #38

Just remember recent situation with restriction of bitcoin withdrawal in China. That resulted to a big price dump. But if all chineese BTC operations will be free to use,it is logical to assume that this will increase the price of the asset.

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bartolo
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May 31, 2017, 06:13:44 PM
 #39

So does that mean that we will be having another rally in the price of bitcoin and the rest of the alt coins,i just sold my holdings because i thought we could see some good correction after a big rally and i am expecting the price of bitcoin to go down below two thousand for a while and with the current news my plans might back fire.

The logic is that if the exchanges return to normal operation and the withdrawals of bitcoin are allowed again, users will want to buy and this will cause the price to rise, although I don´t think that a rally will happen at all. Keep in mind that it´s possible that when withdrawals are allowed there are daily restrictions in the amount to withdraw. Moreover, during all this time when it was not possible to withdraw bitcoin in the Chinese exchanges the price of bitcoin has risen steadily so I suspect that the Chinese influence on the price is lower than it was a year ago.
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May 31, 2017, 06:15:25 PM
 #40

the news alone caused a big rise in price of bitcoin / CNY pair so i am going to say chances for a big pump is much higher than any chance of price getting dumped because of them actually opening the withdrawals.
Opening withdrawals might be attracting traders to come back into their actual business of what they were already doing. I mean to say China's people are very big reason for bitcoin getting into four digit price levels by end of last year. Now the rest of world are doing what China was doing before, hence I am expecting they will be enjoying joining the rest of world to pump bitcoin prices to another new ATH.

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