What are the risks/downsides of UASF

[what are risks]

For the past week I keep reading everyone repeating the same things about UASF but I have not yet seen any topic discussing the risks or downsides of UASF.

So here is the topic. Please talk about risks here and nothing else. Feel free to open another topic to talk about benefits.

[1715200517]

1715200517

[1715200517]

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[1715200517]

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[TryNinja]

Taken from one of luke's reddit post.

"If and only if BIP148 has minority hashrate support, there will be a chain split. Whether your node supports BIP148 or not, there is a risk that your economic counterparties (ie, people you want to pay and people you want to pay you) will be on the other side of the split. So long as nobody double-spends, this should be mostly okay for 100 blocks (about 16 hours); the only difference will be that transactions might confirm at different times. But if 100 blocks pass and miners begin spending their newly mined bitcoins (different on each side of the split), the chains' balances will begin to diverge, and transactions will become tied to one side or the other. There will be two "bitcoins"."

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6bxpsj/bip148_and_the_risks_it_entails_for_you_whether/

[what are risks]

Thanks for the link. I found this part interesting.

[–]AnonymousRev
Risks only for BIP148 nodes
if you are on a UASF node, and the UASF fails, you are at risk for lost funds. that is ONLY a risk for some one on a UASF node.

also this answer: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6bxpsj/bip148_and_the_risks_it_entails_for_you_whether/dhqbrn9/

That´s why you should begin removing your bitcoins our of exchanges before August 1st ... just in case of a chain split.

I myself will do this and wait the fork out until I resume my exchange business.

The biggest risk is having 2 different coins. There isn't anything else other than that. To be safe, what you need to do is taking your coins out of where you have them unless they already in your desktop wallet and make sure of that your desktop wallet supports the new chain. Otherwise you may lose the chance of having the new segwit enabled updated bitcoins.

If you are paranoid, just collect all your coins in one place, have your private key in somewhere safe (writing them down works):p, don't make any transactions after 31st July until everything is settled.

@mike4001 and @mindrust
thanks for the replies but lets keep this topic about the risks of... not what to do if...

[BillyBobZorton]

95% of hashrate locks-in segwit before August 1st. No chain split at all.

51% of hashrate deploys BIP148 before August 1st. No chain split at all.

51% of hashrate deploys BIP148 after August 1st. Chain split gets resolved.

Legacy miners are compelled by the economy to switch to BIP148 after Aug 1st. Chain split gets resolved.

Thats the bottomline. Of course there would be an undefined amount of time where 2 tokens co-exist but it will eventually resolve.

People that don't move to UASF chain are at risk of reorg.

[ebliever]

Taken from one of luke's reddit post.

"If and only if BIP148 has minority hashrate support, there will be a chain split. Whether your node supports BIP148 or not, there is a risk that your economic counterparties (ie, people you want to pay and people you want to pay you) will be on the other side of the split. So long as nobody double-spends, this should be mostly okay for 100 blocks (about 16 hours); the only difference will be that transactions might confirm at different times. But if 100 blocks pass and miners begin spending their newly mined bitcoins (different on each side of the split), the chains' balances will begin to diverge, and transactions will become tied to one side or the other. There will be two "bitcoins"."

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/6bxpsj/bip148_and_the_risks_it_entails_for_you_whether/

Luke's analysis is excellent and worth reading in its entirety. Basically the risk here is one of confusion, with a chance that someone spending on the old chain may see their TX reorg'd out of existence when the BIP148 SW chain overtakes it. (Without a countermeasure such as checkpointing by defenders of the legacy chain, it will cease to exist when the BIP148 SW chain overtakes it in terms of proof of work.) In that case the buyer of the BTC on the legacy chain will see their "old" bitcoin evaporate. Bottom line: Don't do any transactions on the non-segwit legacy chain after BIP148 unless you are extremely confident BIP148 will fail.

[what are risks]

Thanks for the answers.