Stop it with the "bank closed - no new money coming in"

[Frozenlock]

It means nothing!

MtGox could have 1 milliard dollars per day incoming and that wouldn't change the price.
If people move some money to MtGox and see the price is tanking, they won't buy.

At the same time, traders could drive the price up without any new money coming in.

[EuroTrash]

It means nothing!

MtGox could have 1 milliard dollars per day incoming and that wouldn't change the price.
If people move some money to MtGox and see the price is tanking, they won't buy.

At the same time, traders could drive the price up without any new money coming in.

bar the Gox fees.
Statistically if we all kept doing market orders in a totally random fashion, the price would be stable IF there were no fees.
With fees and same probability distribution --> the price drop is directly proportional to the volume traded.

[Frozenlock]

Well sure, if the banks were closed for 2 months it would have an impact.

[Birdy]

So you are saying if people can sell all BTC they want, but cannot buy all BTC they want it has no influence?

[Frozenlock]

There's already a bunch of money just sitting on MtGox.
The daily income of new money isn't going to change that much.

Also, BTCs can leave the exchange at anytime, while the dollars are locked up in MtGox until account verification and withdraw limit.

[Piper67]

There's already a bunch of money just sitting on MtGox.
The daily income of new money isn't going to change that much.

Also, BTCs can leave the exchange at anytime, while the dollars are locked up in MtGox until account verification and withdraw limit.

Yes, but BTC's can also enter the exchange at any time, while fiat takes 24-48 hours, and in the case of this weekend, 4 days.

Of course there could be a lot more fiat in Gox, not on the books. But there could also be a lot more BTC there, not on the books. All other things being equal, the ability for BTC to flow in and out of the exchange, but not fiat, does put downward pressure on the price. On most weekends you can see that quite clearly.

Now, if someone's been REALLY smart and kept a lot on fiat off the books but on Gox, waiting to buy a big chunk say Sunday or Monday, that could easily change.

[Frozenlock]

You are looking only at one side of the medal.

Yes, it takes more time for the fiat to enter MtGox, but once it's there it's trapped!
It's not getting money in that's hard, it's getting it out.

So if BTCs can move out at anytime, but cash must stay on the exchange, why would that only be 'downward pressure'?

Furthermore, the weekend dip is a myth.

[Piper67]

You are looking only at one side of the medal.

Yes, it takes more time for the fiat to enter MtGox, but once it's there it's trapped!
It's not getting money in that's hard, it's getting it out.

So if BTCs can move out at anytime, but cash must stay on the exchange, why would that only be 'downward pressure'?

Furthermore, the weekend dip is a myth.

Cash stays trapped on the exchange, but isn't available for transactions once the withdrawal process has started. That means that, even if it does take days for the fiat to come out, once you've hit the withdraw button, you can't get it back and use it to buy BTC.

The weekend dip isn't a myth, it's just not a certainty. Again, it depends on the foresight of the traders. During times when most of the money flowing into Gox is "new money" from people who have just become exposed to Bitcoin, the weekend dip is pretty accurate, because as soon as the deposits go through, they want to buy.

In situations like now, when the money sitting in Gox probably belongs mostly to people who have been around Bitcoin for a while, I agree that the dip may or may not happen. Nevertheless, I think the chance of it happening is greater the longer the banks remain closed.

[Frozenlock]

That's my point:

I'm pretty sure most of the transactions on MtGox are from traders.
If everyone on MtGox was just buying and going away, you would be correct.

However, look around you: almost everyone predicting a lower price sold some BTCs.
Not to cash out, but to buy back lower. The cash is there, waiting silently for an opportunity.
$50? $30? $10? Who knows...

The amount of transactions done by the new teenagers just hearing about the new Bitcoin thingy isn't going to drive the market.
VCs? My guess is that if they are buying, it's with darkpools.

And for the withdrawal process, it goes two ways: If I am to withdraw, I will not start the process on a friday,
knowing that my money will remain in limbo for the weekend.

[mgio]

I just $1000 arrive in my mt gox account today (sent with dwolla). I don't know how the banks being closed has affected got at all.

[ElectricMucus]

However, look around you: almost everyone predicting a lower price sold some BTCs.
Not to cash out, but to buy back lower. The cash is there, waiting silently for an opportunity.
$50? $30? $10? Who knows...

Well yes and no.

As for me I am doing the opposite most folks here do: I'm regularly withdrawing some of the USD I earned trading and use it as extra income.
Thanks alot you "investors" a big (bear) hug!  

[Frozenlock]

Would you consider yourself the norm? 

[ElectricMucus]

Would you consider yourself the norm? 

Gladly no, and I doubt that would work so well if so.