I am surprised there has been no mention of Segwit2X, this has a planned release for July 21st, and so if this gets acceptance, this will be the defacto bitcoin (imo this is the best compromise, larger blocks and segwit activation). With my understanding, if this is successful before August 1st then 148 is moot, as it is already activated within Segwit2X.
Maybe someone with a better understanding can explain this better?...
I think if you give the maximum benefit of the doubt you can possibly give the miners, they are behaving the way they are behaving because if Segwit alone is all that's implemented, they believe, rightly or wrongly, that the future for them will be collecting fewer main chain fees because of Lightning network, and only dust-like fees from actual Lightning network transactions.
Combine this with ever diminishing block rewards, it's possible they see their financial future as dimmer and dimmer in bitcoin. So really they need to see something positive from their future fee collection standpoint, and a bump to 2Mb blocks is something they can point to as a "life line" for their future.
That's the absolute most benefit of the doubt scenario I can come up with, and if it's close to reality (doubt it's the entire story) then your scenario may come to pass. It's just that this hard fork to 2 MB is going to be so difficult and so contentious....could get nasty.
Ye, it does sound like Bitmain and its other big mining brothers are afraid of control not being dependent on their mining equipment ? It does seem to me that Bitmain and its 4 other brothers ( all i know is someone said there is 5 big miner companies at the moment ) are not playing fair here ... So Bitmain doesn't seem to have the moral ground. ( I am still not entirely sure who has the Moral here though.. To me this has to be the group of people that supports the openness, fairness and decentralization of Bitcoin... which are the most important factors for Bitcoin's success )
However. Bitmain, Coinbase and 23 others are supporting their own fork change, involving 2 mb size increase. This group has 83 percent of the hashing power, according to their own post so this means whatever happens they will do their own thing !
So we have two teams:
Team1.
=====
Bitcoin Core Devs
These guys:
https://bitcoincore.org/en/team/Maybe these guys ?
https://bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/ Why is Coinbase/GDAX in both teams ?
Team2.
=====
Proclaimed hollders of 80% of the hash power: Bitmain, Coinbase and 23 others.
These guys:
https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77Both parties want to implement a change and both seem determined to implement it.
Team 1 Wants to implement the change using this:
https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/01/26/segwit-benefits/Team 2 Wants To implement the change using this:
https://medium.com/@DCGco/bitcoin-scaling-agreement-at-consensus-2017-133521fe9a77https://blog.bitmain.com/en/uahf-contingency-plan-uasf-bip148/Both parties seem so determined that in fact after 1st August there will two blockchains ( I am not a super expert so don''t take me as if I am god on this ). And indeed us holding our coins is the way to be safest.
If Team 2 is indeed that commercial group that has monopolized the hashate, then they will do their own thing no matter what. If Team 1 has only up to 17 percent of the hashrate, then Team 1's change will not be implemented by the majority commercials. ( Again , I am not sure if Team 2 indeed represents 83 percent of the mining AND commercial power behind Bitcoin, maybe yes maybe no, can someone check ? )
After 1st August , one interesting question is, since each of us will have a copy of our coins on each blockchain ... wouldn't that mean that we will now have literally doubled our bitcoins in real terms equivalent to how good both blockchains progress.??
In other words we are not screwed at all. In fact we might like this
. Double money !. The question is, is that what happened to Ethereum and Ethereum Classic ? Did people get coins in each version ? They are probably not too sad about it. Ie no one lost after the fork / split.
In summary... the trade should continue. Towards 1st of August ( or 21st July) ... keep coins with you.
There may be some fluctuation on the price... but remember the big Exchanges seem to be in Team 2's / Bitminer's camp ... some price drop is expected but should remain pretty strong ..
Are all big exchanges ( kraken, etc ) also with Bitmain and Coinbase and those 23 others in Team 2 ?
Given the importance of this I don't like that each Exchange hasn't come up officially with their intended direction after 1st August. Or perhaps they have ?
I encourage people to research further , and don't let what I wrote scare you or anything .. I am just researching about this since couple of days.
