Bitcoin Holders Must Prepare For Mass Adoption

[bobdude17]

(If you don't care about China, read the next post down.)

Please for a moment put away your bull/bear leanings and try to consider the following possibilities with an open mind.

I don't think you all understand the gravity of what China just did.
As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV). This is a state-sponsored, state-censored TV channel, as in the main one. This means that this program was approved by the Chinese government. And not like a shrug-your-shoulders-eh-sounds-newsworthy kind of approval either. This was not just informative, it was positive. Yes, I know at end it mentioned the volatility of the market and the risk investors would take, but this is not negative, it actually makes far more sense to include this information if your trying to entice your people to buy into the idea:

     * People would discover the volatility anyway, so telling them beforehand shows that the government has researched the risks and recommends it anyway. More trust generated.

     *  Strong Chinese gambling culture, this early market volatility and get rich quick possibilities will attract speculators. And if mining WoW gold can catch on like wildfire...

    * Most all of the program was dedicated to the different positive aspects of Bitcoin,  showing screenshots of price graphs going up, with the risks and negatives acting only like a teaser at the end.

    * The population would be less likely to trust a course of action the government said was perfect. They do think for themselves you know. Stop acting like Chinese people are a bunch of lemmings that don't even need to be coerced into control like our governments do with us.


So let's reclassify the action that happened. This was not "another country did a piece looking at Bitcoin". This was a a piece of propaganda(surprisingly accurate propaganda) developed by the Chinese government aimed at giving the Chinese people a positive impression of something called Bitcoin. Nothing wrong with that.
It is, however, shocking. If your were to tell me last week that a government had produced a positive piece on Bitcoin, literally the last country on Earth I would have guessed would have been China.
There is a lot more we can infer from the fact that Bitcoin was cast in a positive light. This means obviously the they researched it extremely in depth, in far more detail than was shown in the video. There is just simply no chance of a Chinese state-run channel taking such a controversial subject lightly. It means they determined the idea of Bitcoin itself as valid. It means they found the lack of Bitcoin infrastructure to be not enough of a deterrent, they must realize they could easily build it themselves. And it means that their freakin super Spartan hacker army found Bitcoin secure.
They still could have easily painted Bitcoin in a negative light, but they didn't. Why?

     * Despite being contrary to their apparent political beliefs, they might have seen Bitcoin as unstoppable in the future. A logical product of the ever advancing Information Age, and simply decided to adapt rather fight it.
    
     * America has the largest economy. America's largest export is the dollar. China hates trading in dollars with other countries(Iranian oil for example) and sees an opportunity to threaten the domination of the dollar as the world reserve currency. This in itself carries the possibility of turning China into the world's #1 economy. Makes backing Bitcoin very worth the risk.

     * It is early in the game still. Look at the very early adopter individuals of Bitcoin compared to most of us. Now imagine what an early-adopter-government will look like to the rest of the world.

     * Maybe they believe Bitcoin will actually make the world a better place. Hell, you never know.



So for whatever the reason, they aired it. Very intentionally. And they knew the US Government would find out, and they didn't care that the US Government would find out. Very important. The US and China have been in a military, intelligence, economical, ideological, and technological Cold War for a while now. They watch each other's every move, and every action has meaning. That's a piece being moved on the chessboard. Like a big one.
So what happens now?
Please consider effect of such an endorsement will have on the rest of the nations of the world. If Denmark or Argentina gave Bitcoin it's approval, that would be interesting/exciting. This is China. The second-largest economy on earth. Bitcoin is often compared to gold. China moving on Bitcoin will trigger an international gold rush.
I have no freaking clue how Washington is going to react to this. I would bet that this caught the CIA and everyone else by surprise. But I have no doubts at all that they are arguing about it in oak furnished offices right now. This could end up affecting the stability of the American empire.

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[bobdude17]

In light of all this news, Bitcoin holders must prepare for the possibility of mass adoption. With China triggering the international gold rush and most likely engineering upcoming Bitcoin infrastructure, members of this community are likely to become very rich, very soon.
I as well, would not be surprised to reach 300k per coin by the end of this year. Perhaps higher. Gold rush, exponential adoption.
Cool, right? Very!

However this brings up the price of the success we have all been fervently wishing for. We simply have way too many people who don't understand how rich they are about to be, congregating in this forum. And we will all become targets. I am not being melodramatic, it would just be a fact.
A gold rush of Bitcoin would practically bring in a golden age of hacking.
Where have your IPs been stored? Where on the internet have you been identified? It would be so easy for an organization of hackers to write up a hit list of people in this forum, priority given to early registration, and start up the machine.
I don't know of abuses in the past of registering on this forum TOR, but for what may soon happen, it is absolutely ludicrous not be able to use this board with the TOR anonymous browser. This is simply too much money in one place not being intelligently protected. This needs to change as soon as possible.

Physical security. Not often thought about seriously, I know. But I think it needs to be. There is a fundamental difference in security between getting rich off Bitcoin overnight and say winning the lottery overnight. The lottery winner would have his winnings in a bank.
Generally rich people aren't strategically physically robbed for this reason. Just because a guy has a ton of stocks and bonds, and is worth a whole bunch of money doesn't mean that putting a gun to his face is going to get an attacker much more than his wallet.
This is why if Bitcoin succeeds, it doesn't mean that banks are going to die, just that their roles will change.

Now imagine that someone on the internet believes you to be an early adopter. Let's say a hacker group broke into Moneygram and sold the home addresses of people paying cash to Bitinstant during certain dates, IPs from bitcointalk.org etc...Your security is lax, and he tracks down where you live. What won't he/they do if they think you are holding the information to some private codes worth 60 million dollars... yeah
Let me be clear: it doesn't matter how good and secure your cold storage wallets are if there is man with a pistol barrel to your daughter's head.
The attacker would not have bothered with the lotto winner because it's not like he can march him into the bank at gunpoint and have him make a withdrawal.
And with early adopters holding information to 60 million dollars worth of untraceable digital cash, it is not absurd to think you could attract the professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals to your home.
I would honestly recommend that future Bitcoin Summits be held in undisclosed locations with the security element considered. The delegates are so many eggs in one basket together that such an opportune situation could tempt some pretty maniacal schemes.



Whether you believe me or not, whether you believe mass adoption is close at hand or not, I you urge to recognize that it could be, and to plan accordingly. Use TOR, use TORMail, keep mindful of your semi public internet presence and what others know of you and Bitcoin. Plan ahead and you will truly be able to enjoy your wealth with more peace of mind.





Anyway, thanks for reading, whether you agree or not I hope to encourage discussion. The world is changing fast and there's no place I'd rather be to watch it all unfold. Happy to be on the ride with all of you.

[bobdude17]

FAQ

I'll answer common questions that come up, to prevent double posting, but feel free to address my answers if you want.
I will be moderating this discussion, so please stay on topic.
Please don't take it personally if I delete your post, just keeping everything streamlined.






1.

Not everything played on CCTV is a government propaganda plot.

I very much agree. But everything played with a positive spin on CCTV is at least in line with government ideals. I don't think there is any way a 30 minute special endorsing such a disruptive technology with large political ramifications would escape the notice of the Chinese government during it's production. Not on it's own mouthpiece channel. That would be very sloppy, very unlike China. Logical evidence supports this conclusion more than supporting the idea that this program slipped through the cracks and got broadcast to the majority of Chinese citizens spontaneously.
We westerners have a kind of attitude that things just "kind of come on TV", I don't think that is the case here. I think there is good reason to conclude this was produced with intent, under direction of the top levels of government.



2.

OP, I think what you're saying is possible. But at this point, simply not probable

Everything about Bitcoin, from its orgins to its markets, have been "not probable". I expect its future to be even more so.

[bitleif]

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Why, just because you say so? You have absolutely zero evidence to back that up.

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV). This is a state-sponsored, state-censored TV channel, as in the main one.

Just because it's state sponsored and censored, doesn't mean EVERY word coming out of their mouths is a large-scale propaganda event. Is the weather report an indicator of future policy too?

This might means bitcoin isn't ILLEGAL in China, but that's about it. I think anything else is largely wishful thinking on your part. It's not a bearish sign but you're blowing it way out of proportion.

[blackreplica]

OP, I think what you're saying is possible. But at this point, simply not probable

Realistically I think the real truth is that bitcoin is not perceived in any kind of meaningful light in the eyes of the chinese govt. CCTV reporting bitcoin's rise and fall, to the chinese top dogs, at least, probably carry about as much significance as a report on the discovery of a new breed of turtle: mildly interesting, but hardly significant.

What we can expect, however, is a great deal of increased exposure, which, if it translate to larger adoption numbers, should see a mid term price increase in the BTC/CNY exchange rate (and it's consequent effect on the exchange rate everywhere else)

But as far as China making a concerted effort to corner the entire bitcoin currency market in an attempt to reduce USD domination...well, I'm not so sure

However, as a holder of a not insignificant amount of BTC

[bobdude17]

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Why, just because you say so? You have absolutely zero evidence to back that up.

That's why they are close door meetings.

Just because it's state sponsored and censored, doesn't mean EVERY word coming out of their mouths is a large-scale propaganda event.

Of course, just not this subject. I said nothing about the rest of the TV because I know nothing about it.

Realistically I think the real truth is that bitcoin is not perceived in any kind of meaningful light in the eyes of the chinese govt. CCTV reporting bitcoin's rise and fall, to the chinese top dogs, at least, probably carry about as much significance as a report on the discovery of a new breed of turtle: mildly interesting, but hardly significant.

You are assuming a lower level, I am saying it came top down.




passing out

[romerun]

assuming Satoshi is US Gov and holding roughly 2% of btc, China just took the bait to trap anyone trying to flee from US currency.

[SAQ]

You have a sweet way of taking something fairly big to beyond the universe hahaha

It is big news, yes, but not 300k by the end of the year news. That would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion. That's not delusional, its funny lol.

1k by the end of the year, yes. China and the chinese people are not going to drop everything tomorrow and put all their money on bitcoins. It is going to be a gradual, slow, taking at least a decade process, until bitcoins becomes as mainstream as facebook.

[Cyberdyne]

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV).

Um, a link to whatever you're talking about would be nice. Your post currently has no context for me.

[maxmint]

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV).

Um, a link to whatever you're talking about would be nice. Your post currently has no context for me.

This is the video: http://tv.cntv.cn/video/C10329/e5ee4fe9a62b4b24b1080327faaafcb7
And google translation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194865.msg2024867#msg2024867

[rpietila]

Is this an rpietila alt?

No, this is the sixth person in the world who is taking $300k seriously. The number is increasing quite fast.

But no need to be scared of intelligent hackers. They already have bitcoins, and even a thief gets lazy after receiving million$ in an honest way.

[yolo2222]

+1

I fully agree with the OP.

Thanks for the post.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdadZ_KrZVw

[michaelGedi]

OP you are way too over excited about this...

The world has much bigger issues to worry about than Bitcoin right now for governments.

I'm not going to go into detail about all of this... time will tell.


Re security. Some valid points there in the long term.

But let's take South America for example. Kidnappings do happen on a regular basis for quick cash.

Security guards families are taken hostage in order to the get the keys to the rich houses in gated communities... then money is stolen. This is a frequent occurence. The type of organised crime you are talking about will do better making profits elsewhere. Someone can hold a gun to your daughter's head and make you go to the bank and get cash out... they don't need to ask for your bitcoin keys!

and

professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals

..... well, that's where your perspective becomes a bit laughable... You watch too many movies clearly


don't get me wrong, bitcoin could be huge, but it also could not. You sound like you are trying to validate your involvement in it without staying rational

[John (John K.)]

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV).

Um, a link to whatever you're talking about would be nice. Your post currently has no context for me.

This is the video: http://tv.cntv.cn/video/C10329/e5ee4fe9a62b4b24b1080327faaafcb7
And google translation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194865.msg2024867#msg2024867

I read (and write Chinese) and I agree that the news are mostly positive - no drugs/weapons connotations for example. They even interviewed high-ranking bank officers and a Bitcoin hedge fund manager in China about this, and the fund manager says he's been getting overwhelming enquiries from investors/businessmen interested in Bitcoin.

I'm still trying to squeeze some time out so that I can do a sub on this. 

[daviducsb]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

[John (John K.)]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

The show is hosted by a famous program there - '经济半小时' (literal: Economics in half an hour). I'd say they did a ton of research on the issue (even going as far as to introduce Avalon, ASICMiner and other companies in China), and didn't brush off the entire idea as a bubble or anything.

[yolo2222]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

Ofcourse its not all propaganda- China is not N. Korea... some people in the West tend to forget that from time to time it seems.



Anyways, you can be sure that the content is checked before it goes live....If this is good or bad you can choose by yourself.
I support it to a certain extend.




link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

[kiko]

If a week ago you had told me I had to choose between:

A: 30 minute news segment on Chinese TV.
B: Several of the biggest tech VC's including Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Rose declaring an interest in bitcoin; plus 2 of the world's most prominent investors name dropping it in their research notes/meetings.

I know which one I would choose, the Chinese can read it on-line just like the rest of the world.

Fortunately I didn't have to make that choice.

Please keep all arms and legs inside the vehicle...

[virtualmaster]

psh mass adoption, no one cares to use bitcoin for anything other than speculation.

Speculation is only for short term. Must people invest long term in bitcoin.
A couple of important issues will happen during this summer:
- a lot of bitcoin ATMs will be installed
- some new services and shops will adopt bitcoin
- a bitcoin debit card will come out
But during the summer the prices will remain constant or rise very slowly because many people will spend bitcoins during the vacation.
In September bitcoin users must refill their reserves and a huge amount of new users will try to get a piece of bitcoin so the prices will rise like never before.

[tvbcof]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

The show is hosted by a famous program there - '经济半小时' (literal: Economics in half an hour). I'd say they did a ton of research on the issue (even going as far as to introduce Avalon, ASICMiner and other companies in China), and didn't brush off the entire idea as a bubble or anything.

Thx for your analysis (and for changing your screen name to something which doesn't make one think you are a clownish adolescent until proven otherwise...)

I try to understand China as best I can as they are obviously major players on the world stage and destined to become more so.  This story appearing as it does where it does is indeed a very interesting development.  I'm not sure that I can attach any particular significance to it in a high confidence way just yet.  But it is certainly a development worth watching.

It is tempting to write off the OP's rosy analysis as becoming invalid since we have yet to see a sharp rise in BTC valuations (in light of the infamous volatility.)  But I remember back to when I became actively interested and chose a number of BTC I wished to control.  It still took me some number of weeks to understand the in's and out's of various systems needed to acquire BTC.  So, if this story opens up a flood of demand, I would not necessarily expect it to hit for a few weeks.

It is also worth note that Bitcoin is nothing new in Asia.  A certain fraction of those who were most pre-disposed to get in probably did so some time ago.

[w1R903]

If a week ago you had told me I had to choose between:

A: 30 minute news segment on Chinese TV.
B: Several of the biggest tech VC's including Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Rose declaring an interest in bitcoin; plus 2 of the world's most prominent investors name dropping it in their research notes/meetings.

And the most amazing thing: that both of the above happened and the price is still not skyrocketing.  Bitcoin rises from $80 to $250 for no apparent reason, but when Paypal and Western Union start talking about adopting Bitcoin, world-famous VCs rave about it, Bitcoin is featured on China's most popular finance show, and most important of all -- we're clearly on the verge of going mainstream! -- the price does...almost nothing.

Yet Ripple is going gangbusters.  Go figure.

[notig]

I am both pessimistic and optimistic about it. You can't deny that downloads of the client for instance have increased so there is more general awareness. But the skeptic in me says: The chinese don't make much money so they aren't going to be able to buy much. Maybe? Just because it was on TV doesn't mean the government approves it necessarily but it is still shocking that they didn't ban it outright.

On a positive note though........ imagine if china did not only approve bitcoin but encouraged it's citizens to get hold of it. They could become the wealthiest nation in just a few years. They already do some things that attract wealth inside of their country... they have a lot of production. They keep their gold and other resources instead of exporting them. That means there is real wealth there and not some fake wealth that the dollar might be someday if it stops being the worlds reserve currency.

[Its About Sharing]

One really has to question how BTC got on Chinese national TV for 30 minutes. This is beyond not making sense to the point that it makes total sense. Know what I mean? 

Seriously, this is great news and as another poster said, the VC's speaking out in the last week were also great. Even if an adjustment now is coming, it can be dangerous to trade
it. Maybe holding is better.

[w1R903]

I am both pessimistic and optimistic about it. You can't deny that downloads of the client for instance have increased so there is more general awareness. But the skeptic in me says: The chinese don't make much money so they aren't going to be able to buy much. Maybe?

Are you kidding?  The Chinese middle class numbers over 300 million -- larger than the entire US population.  You know how many Chinese millionaires there are?  Over 1 million!  And all of that is because of their massive production capabilities, and backed up by huge gold and US dollar reserves.

Yeah, there's lots of money in China.

I suspect that the Chinese political class (the nomenclatura, or whatever it is in Chinese) have realized that Bitcoins are a great way to move all that corrupt wealth that they've made from political favors out of the country.

[Stunna]

Would be interesting to see how this plays out, mass exposure sure but we'll have to wait and see if it will reach mass adoption

[qxzn]

I'm still trying to squeeze some time out so that I can do a sub on this. 

Would love to see a sub!

[Zeke_Vermillion]

Very interesting thread. My best guess is that a particular group of Chinese journalists found the topic interesting and did a piece on it, period. I don't view China as a monolith at all -- it's a huge, dynamic mass of people each with his/her own interests and agenda. In some ways, I think that a lot more innovation and dynamism goes on at the small commercial level in China than in the US (not a ground-breaking statement, I realize). But it would be really exciting if the high-level politicos in China have looked at this phenomenon and actually decided that hey, this thing may in fact be in the best strategic interests of China. Think about it, there's a real problem with dependence on USD as the strategic reserve currency of the world, and China is as much trapped by the current system as anyone. Isn't it much better for governments on the short end of this currency stick to promote a decentralized alternative system?

[Ares]

What's interesting is that if the government were the ones behind promoting the airing of the Bitcoin segment, then they must also have some (but not so much that they increase the price too high for the average citizen). If that's the case, then we can expect a lot more Bitcoin promotion in China

[Cyberdyne]

(but not so much that they increase the price too high for the average citizen)

Highly unlikely that could occur any time soon.

The average citizen will be able to afford 0.00000001 for a long time into the future.

[tvbcof]

Very interesting thread. My best guess is that a particular group of Chinese journalists found the topic interesting and did a piece on it, period. I don't view China as a monolith at all -- it's a huge, dynamic mass of people each with his/her own interests and agenda. In some ways, I think that a lot more innovation and dynamism goes on at the small commercial level in China than in the US (not a ground-breaking statement, I realize). But it would be really exciting if the high-level politicos in China have looked at this phenomenon and actually decided that hey, this thing may in fact be in the best strategic interests of China. Think about it, there's a real problem with dependence on USD as the strategic reserve currency of the world, and China is as much trapped by the current system as anyone. Isn't it much better for governments on the short end of this currency stick to promote a decentralized alternative system?

Good points.

An attraction of Bitcoin to me was as an alternative to the USD.  I was/am adverse to holding to many USD for a variety of practical, political, and strategic reasons, and it could be assumed that the same thing may be true for many people at many strata within Chinese society

[gogxmagog]

I've got my holdings in cold storage then wiped my machine clean. I'm not worried about hackers, although, with china entering the picture we will indeed see "the golden age of hacking" as you say, to some degree. what I see as more probable is a flood of very cheaply produced, inexpensive, ASIC mining rigs with "made in china" stamped on the bottom. frankly, the existing ASIC manufacturers are doing such a sloppy job that some real competition will do them good. Go China!

[jubalix]

I think China also see's that crypto's can be used as a strategic soft projection weapon. Pretty hard to employ your armed forced when your USD is worthless

[Malawi]

I think China also see's that crypto's can be used as a strategic soft projection weapon. Pretty hard to employ your armed forced when your USD is worthless

Bitcoin will never replace USD or any other currencies(unless possibly for a small poorly governed country), it may take a little of the value out of it, but not much.
It's more like adding another radio-station, it's not that important for most people, but very important to those who finds a new station they enjoy.

[Cyberdyne]

what I see as more probable is a flood of very cheaply produced, inexpensive, ASIC mining rigs with "made in china" stamped on the bottom. frankly, the existing ASIC manufacturers are doing such a sloppy job that some real competition will do them good. Go China!

It's unclear from your post whether or not you realize all current ASICs are made in China.

[BitcoinAshley]

Bitcoin will never replace USD or any other currencies(unless possibly for a small poorly governed country), it may take a little of the value out of it, but not much.
It's more like adding another radio-station, it's not that important for most people, but very important to those who finds a new station they enjoy.

It is unclear whether or not you also believe that USD and other fiat currencies will last far into the future? It's important to note that fiat currencies are theoretically unsustainable. If one person or institution has the power to print unlimited currency, eventually we reach a point where that institution realizes its almighty power and destroys itself by debasing the currency to a point where people just stop using it. Did you read that book "If you give a mouse a cookie" when you were a kid?

It starts like this:
If you give a mouse a cookie (Give a central bank power to print money)
He's going to want a glass of milk (The central bank will gradually become more and more corrupt and print money as a band-aid to poor fiscal policy, debasing the currency until it inflates to nothingness.)
We're in the middle of that right now. Currently, global monetary policy coordination involves the speed at which various currencies are debased. Right now JPY appears to be taking the lead (in terms of planned printing), much to the chagrin of other Central Banksters. If any one country prints significantly more than the others, it will achieve significant trade advantage in terms of its exports vs. those of other countries. So it's like a "race to the bottom" where each of the central banksters doesn't want to let any one of the others get too much of a lead, but really hopes to get a lead him/herself.

Now, Bitcoin itself may not specifically replace USD when USD(/JPY/GBP/EUR/etc.) fails (because it's not a question of IF.) It may be a combination of precious metals, notes tied to them, Real Bill-type systems, various cryptocurrencies, barter, scrip, local economy, etc. We live in an interesting world and people are very adaptable. There is not one answer to such a complex problem. So I agree that Bitcoin will not replace it solely; I just don't live in the fantasy world where Fiat currencies go on living happily ever after and things like PMs and cryptocoins and Real Bill systems (and localized freeconomies) take a tiny piece of the pie.

Fiat currencies are a failed experiment in economic history 
PMs we can say are a success, because even after modern culture removing most of their utility as currency partly due to the "nix"ing of the gold standard, they still have significant value which has outperformed any and all fiat currencies in existence. Even taking into account storage costs, theft risk, selling 20% below spot, etc - they STILL outperform the dollar in the long term by a long shot.
Digital P2P Cryptocurrencies are still being tested; you are one of the test subjects

[bobdude17]

**FAQ has been added on first page***

The type of organised crime you are talking about will do better making profits elsewhere. Someone can hold a gun to your daughter's head and make you go to the bank and get cash out... they don't need to ask for your bitcoin keys!

and

professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals

..... well, that's where your perspective becomes a bit laughable... You watch too many movies clearly

There is an important difference in the execution of these crimes though. 1) If an attacker had to send to you to the bank for the money while holding a family member, there would be a high probability of the situation turning into a very public hostage case. Not ideal for an attacker. 2) You obviously can't go to the bank and withdraw 60 million dollars. You would be forced to wire it to the attacker, which would require all kinds of authorizations. Very trackable. It would take a huge amount of setup to get away with it. Again, not ideal for an attacker.
A passcode, however well protected, that transfers 60 million dollars of untraceable digital cash without a need to leave the victim's house to carry out the transaction presents an ideal scenario for an attacker. Like really, it doesn't get much better than that.

I used humorous language to make a serious point. Millions of dollars cash held by an individual is enough to attract the likes of professional criminals and trained operatives. Pick your mafia, cartel, mob, agency, military or government. Doesn't matter where they come from, but they are out there.

OP, I think what you're saying is possible. But at this point, simply not probable

Everything about Bitcoin, from its orgins to its markets, have been "not probable". I expect its future to be even more so.

But no need to be scared of intelligent hackers. They already have bitcoins, and even a thief gets lazy after receiving million$ in an honest way.

I think a wave of digital cash hitting the internet will only spawn more hackers. Surely not all of them have Bitcoins, and will not get paid off during a mass adoption transition. More and more will come out the woodworks. Which I understand, because to be honest, the whole idea sounds like a lot of fun. The whole white hat/black hat struggle would get very real again.

[rpietila]

I think a wave of digital cash hitting the internet will only spawn more hackers. Surely not all of them have Bitcoins, and will not get paid off during a mass adoption transition. More and more will come out the woodworks. Which I understand, because to be honest, the whole idea sounds like a lot of fun.

The intelligent people in this world are not so many, 95% of them already know about bitcoins, and a great number of them have bitcoins by now. As the rest or the intelligentsia buys into bitcoins sub-$100k (and they generally have the means to buy a good chunk of them), and price shoots to $millions, they will be awestruck with the developments, quit their work, thief will steal no more, etc.

Gitmo inmates will be set free this year, because the administration have bought bitcoins and do not care to run a prison any more. Any evil c&c structure becomes paralyzed after the 1% in control of it buy bitcoins.

Soon, for evil to have any presence at all in this world, it is required that possessing bitcoins will need to be made punishable by death. (This will be rather arbitrary in case of multisig, but since when has logic been any detriment of evil..  )

And it will not even help. French revolution outlawed the use of gold as a quote currency in 1792. United States outlawed the use of gold as quote currency in 1933. Outlawing bitcoins is exceedingly more difficult, and it is hard to lead an organization of evil, when your staff quit en masse after having bought bitcoins. But they will try

[bobdude17]

Read this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=196572.0


It's happening.

[bobdude17]

The intelligent people in this world are not so many, 95% of them already know about bitcoins, and a great number of them have bitcoins by now. As the rest or the intelligentsia buys into bitcoins sub-$100k (and they generally have the means to buy a good chunk of them), and price shoots to $millions, they will be awestruck with the developments, quit their work, thief will steal no more, etc.

Sounds pretty hopeful. I'll get back to you about the rest of your post.

[lixiaolai]

You probably do not fully understand China.

CCtv is not trying to give a positive impression, it just doesn't know what to say.

I'm one of the interviewees of that "famous" program, but my interview was cut to only half of one of my sentences, while the interview actually went on more than 20 minutes.

What I saw is a fact that the CCtv journalist knows what is exactly dangerous in the bitcoin properties.

[DeathAndTaxes]

assuming Satoshi is US Gov and holding roughly 2% of btc, China just took the bait to trap anyone trying to flee from US currency.

That would be hilarious.  I would just have to say well played US Treasury, well played. 

[bobdude17]

You probably do not fully understand China.

I definitely do not, I'm glad you posted. Awesome to have one of the actual people from the special here.

CCtv is not trying to give a positive impression, it just doesn't know what to say.

I am confused then about why they had to say anything? Overall Bitcoin is very unknown, there was no pressure to bring it into the spotlight.(or was there?)

[lixiaolai]

CCtv is not trying to give a positive impression, it just doesn't know what to say.

I am confused then about why they had to say anything? Overall Bitcoin is very unknown, there was no pressure to bring it into the spotlight.(or was there?)

My opinion? it seems reporters don't get the revolutionary impact of bitcoin on the Party.

[rpietila]

assuming Satoshi is US Gov and holding roughly 2% of btc, China just took the bait to trap anyone trying to flee from US currency.

That would be hilarious.  I would just have to say well played US Treasury, well played. 

How exactly will the trap play out? I don't see any realistic means of holding bitcoin down until the bubble towards $1-5M is played out.

[nicolazza]

maybe k300$ is too much but...consider for example k30$.
users with more than 10,000 BTC will have more than 300000000$.

is it right? so... 

[Bitcoinpro]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aw3OSTkdE-s

is there an English translation out yet

[kiko]

If a week ago you had told me I had to choose between:

A: 30 minute news segment on Chinese TV.
B: Several of the biggest tech VC's including Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Rose declaring an interest in bitcoin; plus 2 of the world's most prominent investors name dropping it in their research notes/meetings.

And the most amazing thing: that both of the above happened and the price is still not skyrocketing.  Bitcoin rises from $80 to $250 for no apparent reason, but when Paypal and Western Union start talking about adopting Bitcoin, world-famous VCs rave about it, Bitcoin is featured on China's most popular finance show, and most important of all -- we're clearly on the verge of going mainstream! -- the price does...almost nothing.

Yet Ripple is going gangbusters.  Go figure.

Price matters. Just to hold steady at $110; the market must absorb $396,000 per day of new bitcoin supply.

[Morning]

"That's why they are close door meetings."

How do you know that - that is the question. I am afraid that making unjustified claims so easily makes me a bit skeptic about this all. Not saying is all a lie, not at all. But that then  its hard to now what is real and not real.

[Bitcoinpro]

If a week ago you had told me I had to choose between:

A: 30 minute news segment on Chinese TV.
B: Several of the biggest tech VC's including Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Rose declaring an interest in bitcoin; plus 2 of the world's most prominent investors name dropping it in their research notes/meetings.

And the most amazing thing: that both of the above happened and the price is still not skyrocketing.  Bitcoin rises from $80 to $250 for no apparent reason, but when Paypal and Western Union start talking about adopting Bitcoin, world-famous VCs rave about it, Bitcoin is featured on China's most popular finance show, and most important of all -- we're clearly on the verge of going mainstream! -- the price does...almost nothing.

Yet Ripple is going gangbusters.  Go figure.

1 btc =12,000 xrp

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194880.0

https://ripple.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_monetary_system

[Jobe7]

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

And you know this because...?

[Jobe7]

It is big news, yes, but not 300k by the end of the year news. That would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion. That's not delusional, its funny lol.

hmm.. Bitcoin has the potential to have a market cap of 21 quadrillion, currently 11 quadrillion. So, ye.. 330 trillion is very easily do'able with current amount of btc out there.

[Malawi]

Bitcoin will never replace USD or any other currencies(unless possibly for a small poorly governed country), it may take a little of the value out of it, but not much.
It's more like adding another radio-station, it's not that important for most people, but very important to those who finds a new station they enjoy.

It is unclear whether or not you also believe that USD and other fiat currencies will last far into the future? It's important to note that fiat currencies are theoretically unsustainable. If one person or institution has the power to print unlimited currency, eventually we reach a point where that institution realizes its almighty power and destroys itself by debasing the currency to a point where people just stop using it. Did you read that book "If you give a mouse a cookie" when you were a kid?

It starts like this:
If you give a mouse a cookie (Give a central bank power to print money)
He's going to want a glass of milk (The central bank will gradually become more and more corrupt and print money as a band-aid to poor fiscal policy, debasing the currency until it inflates to nothingness.)
We're in the middle of that right now. Currently, global monetary policy coordination involves the speed at which various currencies are debased. Right now JPY appears to be taking the lead (in terms of planned printing), much to the chagrin of other Central Banksters. If any one country prints significantly more than the others, it will achieve significant trade advantage in terms of its exports vs. those of other countries. So it's like a "race to the bottom" where each of the central banksters doesn't want to let any one of the others get too much of a lead, but really hopes to get a lead him/herself.

Now, Bitcoin itself may not specifically replace USD when USD(/JPY/GBP/EUR/etc.) fails (because it's not a question of IF.) It may be a combination of precious metals, notes tied to them, Real Bill-type systems, various cryptocurrencies, barter, scrip, local economy, etc. We live in an interesting world and people are very adaptable. There is not one answer to such a complex problem. So I agree that Bitcoin will not replace it solely; I just don't live in the fantasy world where Fiat currencies go on living happily ever after and things like PMs and cryptocoins and Real Bill systems (and localized freeconomies) take a tiny piece of the pie.

Fiat currencies are a failed experiment in economic history 
PMs we can say are a success, because even after modern culture removing most of their utility as currency partly due to the "nix"ing of the gold standard, they still have significant value which has outperformed any and all fiat currencies in existence. Even taking into account storage costs, theft risk, selling 20% below spot, etc - they STILL outperform the dollar in the long term by a long shot.
Digital P2P Cryptocurrencies are still being tested; you are one of the test subjects

Yes USD and other FIAT currencies will last far into the future. There have been examples of currencies that crash (like germany and Zimbabwe), but still they don't get replaced by something completely different, they gets replaced by another FIAT or less money is printed.

I'd say that if I give a mouse a cookie, I might get a cookie from that mouse when I got the munchies.

If a country prints a lot of notes, the notes gets cheaper and they can export more, but it also means that it costs more to buy stuff from abroad. It's a two-sided story.
Now figure another country, and do this in reverse - what if they only print a few coins - that surely means that they have to be extremely valuable, and hence they can buy the rest of the world as long as their currency is small enough....

Without FIATs or some other reliable mode of transferring value, there would have been far less international trade, and everything you own would have cost you a lot more to buy (IOW - you would have had less.)
There sure are flaws to many FIATs, but they have been around for hundreds of years, and will stay for hundreds of more years.

It seems like what you are trying to describe is the collapse of national states. It's hard to say that it cannot happen, but I strongly doubt it. Hey - even Bitcoinia is a national state.

[tvbcof]

...
Yes USD and other FIAT currencies will last far into the future.
...

Calling bobdude17!  Please censor this if you will.  It clearly does not align with your thoughts and the goals you would like to achieve with this thread.

[bobdude17]

...
Yes USD and other FIAT currencies will last far into the future.
...

Calling bobdude17!  Please censor this if you will.  It clearly does not align with your thoughts and the goals you would like to achieve with this thread.

I am sorry I upset you by deleting your earlier post. I have not tried to censor anyone's opinion, I have left plenty of posts up that blatantly dismiss what I say. That's fine, I was looking to promote a discussion no matter what your opinion on the topic is. I have only attempted to streamline this thread from posts that did not make a point in either direction.

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.


-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

[Malawi]

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.
-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

But the post where I pointed out your tinfoil-view of the world in your opening posts were deleted.....

[rpietila]

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.
-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

But the post where I pointed out your tinfoil-view of the world in your opening posts were deleted.....

Yes. There is not so much point to litter other people's rooms, is there? The OP probably knows that there are many forum accounts who disagree with him, that alone is not a reason to post.

Go make your own thread if the only thing you have to say is to ridicule the host!

[bobdude17]

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.
-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

But the post where I pointed out your tinfoil-view of the world in your opening posts were deleted.....

Give me your reasons that my point of view is on par with wearing a tin-foil hat and I will be happy to leave it up.

[bobdude17]

I think a wave of digital cash hitting the internet will only spawn more hackers. Surely not all of them have Bitcoins, and will not get paid off during a mass adoption transition. More and more will come out the woodworks. Which I understand, because to be honest, the whole idea sounds like a lot of fun.

The intelligent people in this world are not so many, 95% of them already know about bitcoins, and a great number of them have bitcoins by now. As the rest or the intelligentsia buys into bitcoins sub-$100k (and they generally have the means to buy a good chunk of them), and price shoots to $millions, they will be awestruck with the developments, quit their work, thief will steal no more, etc.

Gitmo inmates will be set free this year, because the administration have bought bitcoins and do not care to run a prison any more. Any evil c&c structure becomes paralyzed after the 1% in control of it buy bitcoins.

Soon, for evil to have any presence at all in this world, it is required that possessing bitcoins will need to be made punishable by death. (This will be rather arbitrary in case of multisig, but since when has logic been any detriment of evil..   )

And it will not even help. French revolution outlawed the use of gold as a quote currency in 1792. United States outlawed the use of gold as quote currency in 1933. Outlawing bitcoins is exceedingly more difficult, and it is hard to lead an organization of evil, when your staff quit en masse after having bought bitcoins. But they will try

While I do think I grasp the overall idea planned by the designer(s), I can't help but thinking he might be wrong. There is a very good possibility society could slip into the sort of communal economic utopia that he had envisioned, but I think human nature will be expressed despite the fairness of the monetary system. There will be people with more and people with less, and people with more will have more power and options to tempt those with less. And should such a utopia be established, I have my doubts about the peace lasting after the first generation lives and dies.

I know where you are going with this, and I see it to be probable as well, but I just don't think it will hold. You are definitely correct that people will be awestruck by the first wave of developments.

[Malawi]

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.
-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

But the post where I pointed out your tinfoil-view of the world in your opening posts were deleted.....

Give me your reasons that my point of view is on par with wearing a tin-foil hat and I will be happy to leave it up.

You are exaggerating the importance of BTC and that CCTV airing way to much.

Also you highly exaggerated the censorship of non-political stuff in China. This is viewed as an economic subject and are not censored in the same way. I'm pretty sure there have been plenty of programs about stocks that skyrockets etc.

And last but not least - you think the US government is shitting their pants because of that 1/2 hrs show and fears that BTC is going to make the dollar more or less obsolete.

[bobdude17]

http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-the-newest-tool-in-chinas-currency-war-chest/

[axus]

I'd imagine Chinese censors saw it as a pro-China piece: Avalon coming first to market, Bitcoin's ability to replace USD as the world's trading currency.  Being a censor doesn't sound like a high-intelligence job; check the list that someone else gave you, and when in doubt, censor. 

I wonder what they are talking about on the Chinese-language version of bitcointalk, and if they get censored.

[Qwedcxza1]

Re security. Some valid points there in the long term.

But let's take South America for example. Kidnappings do happen on a regular basis for quick cash.

Security guards families are taken hostage in order to the get the keys to the rich houses in gated communities... then money is stolen. This is a frequent occurence. The type of organised crime you are talking about will do better making profits elsewhere. Someone can hold a gun to your daughter's head and make you go to the bank and get cash out... they don't need to ask for your bitcoin keys!

and

professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals

..... well, that's where your perspective becomes a bit laughable... You watch too many movies clearly

There's a few different topics addressed in this post but I wanted to comment on the security issue. Anyone who thinks that having instant access to a huge some of money that is easily transferable and pretty much untraceable wouldn't make you a target for violent criminals is being pretty naive. In 'first world' countries such as USA or UK people will commit violent armed robberies in broad daylight in banks for possible rewards of tens of thousands of dollars. They would definitely prefer to rob less well protected individuals for greater sums. It's not only South America where things like this occur.
 I mentioned this in the 'how many bitcoins have you got' thread and suggested a time delay wallet similar to the safes in banks. On reflection this might just result in you being held by the violent criminals for even longer, making the whole experience of losing all your money even more unpleasant.

 There is one possible solution. You ask a trusted third party such as a lawyer to generate a secret key unknown to you. You generate your own secret key. A bitcoin address is formed that needs both keys to be known to open it (this is easily done) and you transfer your bitcoins to this address. The lawyer cannot access these bitcoins.
 Then in order to access your bitcoins you have to go to your lawyers office and sign a release form and you are given the other key.
 But please ensure that all of the violent criminals are aware that you have done this.

 Alternatively spend all of your bitcoins and your fiat as soon as you get it. I use this method and it works fine.

 
 
 

[tvbcof]

Re security. Some valid points there in the long term.
...

...
 I mentioned this in the 'how many bitcoins have you got' thread and suggested a time delay wallet similar to the safes in banks. On reflection this might just result in you being held by the violent criminals for even longer, making the whole experience of losing all your money even more unpleasant.

 There is one possible solution. You ask a trusted third party such as a lawyer to generate a secret key unknown to you. You generate your own secret key. A bitcoin address is formed that needs both keys to be known to open it (this is easily done) and you transfer your bitcoins to this address. The lawyer cannot access these bitcoins.
 Then in order to access your bitcoins you have to go to your lawyers office and sign a release form and you are given the other key.
 But please ensure that all of the violent criminals are aware that you have done this.

 Alternatively spend all of your bitcoins and your fiat as soon as you get it. I use this method and it works fine.
 

It's pretty straightforward to keep cold storage BTC exclusively in a safe deposit box with no access to them saved having some 'free time' to enlist some assistance.  That is what I do.  The bold part is the hard part.

As for turning them into fiat, that would have been a very costly method for those who acquired BTC some time ago.  But 'having nothing' is indeed an effective method for not getting robbed.  Attempted robbery is another story...

[jinni]

http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-the-newest-tool-in-chinas-currency-war-chest/

Cool article.

Thanks for the warning about hackers. Duly noted and I will take precautions even though I have an infinitesimal amount of BTC and am not an early adopter. I still feel like my BTC are extremely precious to me.

But still I have to make a point, it will take time for the China frenzy to get fully started. Fair enough we got the two government sanctioned news reports. What we are waiting for now is for all the other different news outlets to digest that information and to do the required research to be able to confirm, match, copy and even add to what has already been published by the government. Then of course there is the blog and microblog storm that will ensue. One good point I heard is that in marketing terms people need to hear about something seven times before they even bother paying attention to it.

I think we need enough time for the many Chinese to rehash all the newbie questions that bitcointalk already has been taking years to explain (the rhetoric has already been simplified here so it won't take years). Even among the English-speaking Chinese I think Bitcoin is not really well known. My example is Hong Kong which has a low Bitcoin penetration even though it is uncensored and most people there speak English.

So I put the 55 countries that have downloaded the most bitcoin-qt clients from sourceforge and then I divided that number (of bitcoin-qt client downloads) by a thousandth of the population to get an idea of penetration. So using Hong Kong as a measure for mainland China adoption (meaning there is no way Hong Kong could not get to Northern European levels), I think there is easily a potential for a 4-5-fold increase in adoption of bitcoin in China. A 4-fold increase would put the 350 million-strong Chinese middle class at about the same level as Germany. It would also surpass the number of US downloads of the bitcoin-qt client.

4,97   Finland
4,73   Sweden
4,38   Netherlands
3,91   Estonia
3,81   Norway
3,80   Canada
3,56   Denmark
3,52   Slovenia
3,43   Australia
3,16   New Zealand
2,92   United States
2,79   United Kingdom
2,51   Germany
2,50   Lithuania
2,46   Austria
2,44   Switzerland
2,31   Latvia
2,28   Israel
2,19   Slovakia
1,98   Ireland
1,98   Poland
1,83   Bulgaria
1,75   Czech Republic
1,75   Belgium
1,57   Singapore
1,40   Portugal
1,22   Greece
1,21   Croatia
1,20   Hong Kong
1,16   Russia
1,12   Ukraine
1,08   Hungary
1,03   Belarus
1,00   Spain
0,95   Romania
0,87   Serbia
0,81   France
0,78   Italy
0,52   Argentina
0,43   Chile
0,25   Taiwan
0,23   South Africa
0,21   Malaysia
0,20   Brazil
0,18   China
0,13   Mexico
0,11   Colombia
0,10   Korea
0,10   Thailand
0,09   Turkey
0,07   Japan
0,06   Viet Nam
0,06   Philippines
0,02   Indonesia
0,02   India

[Brushan]

Shit, i didn't know Sweden was that high up on the list. Maybe i should start a Bitcoin business here.

[bitchris]

Hmmm, India is last? Untapped territory?

[jinni]

Shit, i didn't know Sweden was that high up on the list. Maybe i should start a Bitcoin business here.

Do it.

Hmmm, India is last? Untapped territory?

For sure. Especially considering the huge Indian diaspora sending money back home which is so much easier with Bitcoin than with traditional banks.

[Brushan]

Now imagine if all 50 countries on the list had the same number of penetration as the average number of the top 10. Which is very likely to happen.

[QuestionAuthority]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

[jinni]

Now imagine if all 50 countries on the list had the same number of penetration as the average number of the top 10. Which is very likely to happen.

Of the 3 million qt-clients already downloaded...If only Italy, Spain and France gets to UK levels then we are talking about 300k more qt-clients. That's an increase of 10% right there. If China 4-folds it's an increase of another 30%. Including periferal countries we're talking an increase in qt-clients of 50% since all time. I think it is just a matter of translation. It would be bigger than the year-to-date number of downloads of the qt-client and it could happen in less than the 4.5 months already passed. The media frenzy ensuing could double that total.

[jinni]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

[QuestionAuthority]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

[Coinseeker]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

China controls everything anyway.  They've been manipulating currency forever.  Don't see how their involvement would change a thing.  Everyone of us typing in this forum is using something made in China.  Tough pill for some, but truth nonetheless.  Almost seems like a natural progression for China to dominate Bitcoin as well.

[jinni]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

If China controlled the main exchange other countries would have no choice but to set up exchanges too. Btw, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the btcchina server located in Japan?

The thing that matters is not who controls the exchange but who controls the bank accounts. And that would be the government. Hence the CCTV-2 news being monumental.

[QuestionAuthority]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

China controls everything anyway.  They've been manipulating currency forever.  Don't see how their involvement would change a thing.  Everyone of us typing in this forum is using something made in China.  Tough pill for some, but truth nonetheless.

Yes, but we got our revenge.  China has Walmart’s now!  They will have to get used to buying the same shitty low quality products that we are forced to buy.

[Coinseeker]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

China controls everything anyway.  They've been manipulating currency forever.  Don't see how their involvement would change a thing.  Everyone of us typing in this forum is using something made in China.  Tough pill for some, but truth nonetheless.

Yes, but we got our revenge.  China has Walmart’s now!  They will have to get used to buying the same shitty low quality products that we are forced to buy.

  Taste of their own medicine.

[Malawi]

Now imagine if all 50 countries on the list had the same number of penetration as the average number of the top 10. Which is very likely to happen.

Interesting list, I note that Norway is at 5'th place

There are absolutely room for growth, and all tinfoil stuff aside, I think there may be an influx of chinese users soon. Since there are massive amounts of chinese, even a .1 increase should be noticeable.
I suspect that Chinese users are going to mainly do mining until there is a Chinese exchange. If the buttercoin project is successful, it may only be a few months away.
The CNC coin is already launched and caters to the Chinese market. Time will show what they choose.

What Bitcoin need is to reach critical mass, I think it's still 1-2-3 years away(or even longer). Even though stuff go faster now, it still takes a bit of getting used to. At the moment enough people are aware of Bitcoin, and they know people that uses it, the usage may go parabolic(like internet/cellphones etc.). Question is how the bitcoin community and infrastructure will handle this. The blockchain might start growing massively and prices might go trough the roof. This again may scare people away... There are lots of sides to the bitcoin. Hopefully it will become a gamechanger, especially in online retail. not to mention the great possibilities if it can be used alongside local currencies around the word. It would be nice to be able to use BTC when traveling - even more so than when you are at home where you have cheap payment systems in your local currency.

[optimator]

I'll play along. Just to be clear.... this is a scenario - I don't believe in it, but if we're speculating... why not? I hope you enjoy the read...

China begins the adoption of bitcoin. They don't have well formed concrete ideas of how it will help, but another arrow in the quiver never hurts. Meanwhile, Japan carries on with their quantitative easing policy. The unforeseen effect of their QE policy causes multi-billion-billion dollar derivative contracts that have shorted the dollar to unload into the market resulting in a drop in the price of gold.

Meanwhile, miscommunication from Japan's MoD results in what China perceives as agressive action in the Senkaku Islands causing a harsh and disproportionate reaction by China.

In the months that follows China and Russia, taking advantage of the low price of gold, put a plan in place to create a new currency back by gold held in Switzerland to purchase oil from the middle east. Countries send gold to Switzerland, obtain the gold backed currency and buy oil. The currency is reluctantly accepted over the next 6 months ending in the dollar panic of '14. A panic where nations flee from the perceived stability of the dollar into whatever physical assets they believe are valuable.

The value of bitcoin skyrockets.

Over the next year the United States gradually loses purchasing power and despite all efforts the government starts to implode. The tax base is absent - all money is in the only safe haven - bitcoin. In fact, the nation is now divided into the bitcoin equity holders and everyone else. Factions of bitcoin holders have assembled into self autonomous clans to protect themselves.

They create a derivative currency backed by bitcoin. A derivative currency that is first used to hire security for the clan. The clan starts to create what is necessary for survival: Water, food, shelter, security and stability - All paid for by their new currency backed by bitcoin.

Eventually the clan feels secure enough to undertake infrastructure projects such as roads and gradually expands their territory and connects with other clans.

And life continues its forward progression.

[woodrowchai]

I'm a Chinese,and I think you're too sensitive.
China Gov won't notice bitcoin yet.

[Malawi]

I'm a Chinese,and I think you're too sensitive.
China Gov won't notice bitcoin yet.

I'm not a Chinese, but +264.3

Don't think they care, and if they start to care at some point, it will be to late.

[pa]

Looking at the "penetration" of bitcoin by country, I'm surprised at how low Japan is on the list. I would think that the technophilic home country of MtGox would find the Bitcoin story interesting, especially given that it was created by "Satoshi Nakamoto."

And the new quantitative easing (money-printing) policy of Abe's government should give Japanese a strong incentive to look into hedges against inflation, such as Bitcoin.

[Malawi]

Looking at the "penetration" of bitcoin by country, I'm surprised at how low Japan is on the list. I would think that the technophilic home country of MtGox would find the Bitcoin story interesting, especially given that it was created by "Satoshi Nakamoto."

And the new quantitative easing (money-printing) policy of Abe's government should give Japanese a strong incentive to look into hedges against inflation, such as Bitcoin.

Not to mention that MtGox is located in Japan. Maybee it's because many live in small apartments where a noisy mining rig would be quite disturbing.

[rpietila]

4,97   Finland
4,73   Sweden
4,38   Netherlands
3,91   Estonia
3,81   Norway

I am from Finland, and I have operations in Estonia, and sell to Sweden and Norway. (Also visit Netherlands perhaps 1/yr). Because of my influence that started in Finland long before my coming to Bitcointalk, Finns have bought about 20,000BTC more than they would otherwise have done. That is not bad considering that it is about 1-2% of the world's mine supply of the period, Finland accounts for 0.1% of the world's population, and there are other bitcoin proponents in Finland whose influence is not accounted for in the number. (In fact, some Finnish bitcoin circles are antagonistic towards me, as they regard me as a newbie because of my low tech skills.)

Without these early adopters, I would not have heard about Bitcoin. I truly felt like an old fart, all of 2010-2011, as there was a lively Bitcoin scene partly attached to our superfood- precious metals scene, while personally I felt that Bitcoin was too geeky. After a quite in-depth understanding of what Bitcoin is, it took me more than 12 months to invest. I could not have heard about it, were it not for the early adopters, and needless to say, now it is too late to wait for 12 months if you only now hear of it. Bitcoin is going to the moon and back in 12 months.

I have btw never loaded Bitcoin-qt so me and my clients are wholly under the radar of that list  

[Jeweller]

Looking at the "penetration" of bitcoin by country, I'm surprised at how low Japan is on the list. I would think that the technophilic home country of MtGox would find the Bitcoin story interesting, especially given that it was created by "Satoshi Nakamoto."

And the new quantitative easing (money-printing) policy of Abe's government should give Japanese a strong incentive to look into hedges against inflation, such as Bitcoin.

Not to mention that MtGox is located in Japan. Maybe it's because many live in small apartments where a noisy mining rig would be quite disturbing.

It is quite perplexing.  I really don't think it's because of small apartments.  It's mainly because nobody here has ever heard of it.  The JPY market on MtGox has extremely low volume, despite the fact that it's very fast and easy to get yen onto MtGox.

The other weird thing is that foreign exchange trading works as a de facto legal gambling industry here.  I don't have any good figures for the popularity, but in subways / trains / TV there are countless ads for FX trading platforms.  Mostly JPY / USD / EUR I guess.  Not sure if you actually get to take delivery or if it's more of a derivative like the CFD stuff which seems more popular in the EU.

But yeah.  No bitcoin awareness in Japan, no media, nothing.  Who knows why.  Might be that people are pretty old & conservative; I wouldn't expect my grandparents, nor Warren Buffet, nor most Japanese elderly people to understand bitcoin.

[Anenome5]

It is big news, yes, but not 300k by the end of the year news. That would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion. That's not delusional, its funny lol.

The math works out to only about $3 trillion, actually. World currency estimate is around $60 trillion+. So, it's plausible actually if a world bitcoin-rush were triggered to see that number.

I don't doubt we'll see a bitcoin rush at some point, the incentives are too great. First people in win big. It's self-reinforcing. But it might be more like in two decades from now rather than end of the year

[Bitcoinpro]

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.
-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

But the post where I pointed out your tinfoil-view of the world in your opening posts were deleted.....

Give me your reasons that my point of view is on par with wearing a tin-foil hat and I will be happy to leave it up.

You are exaggerating the importance of BTC and that CCTV airing way to much.

Also you highly exaggerated the censorship of non-political stuff in China. This is viewed as an economic subject and are not censored in the same way. I'm pretty sure there have been plenty of programs about stocks that skyrockets etc.

And last but not least - you think the US government is shitting their pants because of that 1/2 hrs show and fears that BTC is going to make the dollar more or less obsolete.

have you seen the new zealand yt video

[WilderedB]

why video? Link it?

[Stunna]

The more, the merrier!

[spartacus_]

I am ready for mass adoption.
 

[Malawi]

I even deleted some posts of people who just told me they liked the thread, not because I don't appreciate their feedback, just trying to keep the discussion readable and the page count down. Malawi's latest post will obviously not be deleted cuz he offers a point in the discussion. Feel free to do the same.
-- Just so you know, I might end up deleting your last post and my response to it.

But the post where I pointed out your tinfoil-view of the world in your opening posts were deleted.....

Give me your reasons that my point of view is on par with wearing a tin-foil hat and I will be happy to leave it up.

You are exaggerating the importance of BTC and that CCTV airing way to much.

Also you highly exaggerated the censorship of non-political stuff in China. This is viewed as an economic subject and are not censored in the same way. I'm pretty sure there have been plenty of programs about stocks that skyrockets etc.

And last but not least - you think the US government is shitting their pants because of that 1/2 hrs show and fears that BTC is going to make the dollar more or less obsolete.

have you seen the new zealand yt video

Yes. and they are ignorant/clueless. Still - it only proves my point, BTC is not seen as some kind of a threat.

[MAbtc]

Was there even a modicum of evidence offered here? Or is this more wishful thinking? TIA

[jinni]

4,97   Finland
4,73   Sweden
4,38   Netherlands
3,91   Estonia
3,81   Norway

I didn't do Iceland, which figures out to 4,88.

[wachtwoord]

4,97   Finland
4,73   Sweden
4,38   Netherlands
3,91   Estonia
3,81   Norway

I didn't do Iceland, which figures out to 4,88.

Iceland, the only country worldwide I know of that did the right thing in the entire banking crisis: They let their banks default. Go Iceland!

[jinni]

Was there even a modicum of evidence offered here? Or is this more wishful thinking? TIA

There is evidence of a strategic fundamental shift. A country which has a lot of interest in seeing Bitcoin succeed has tacitly approved of it. This country also happens to be the world's most populous and the second biggest economy in the world.

Still Bitcoin won't have any real geopolitical importance until we see a $1 trillion+ market cap. But before that time comes, it is very interesting to see how the different global players react to it.

[Equality]

well we are screwed. due to the Chinese currency manipulation if an American can mine bitcoins for a profit at $100 a bitcoin, a Chinese can mine bitcoins for a profit at $50 a bitcoin assuming he pays the same price for electricity as the American. this is probably exaggerated but you get my point. considering we can mine bitcoins for a profit, a Chinese can become rich mining these shits right now. considering there are over a billion Chinese they have the potential to cause the difficulty to skyrocket and drive profitability into the ground if enough people start getting into bitcoin. this could force everyone else out of the market as far as mining goes due to the currency manipulation.

notice the difference in economic policy between the US and China? the Chinese see a brand new industry and growth market in digital currencies. they saw that western countries are cornering the market so they ran this story on state run TV to get the Chinese people to start adopting bitcoin. while western governments say nothing but bad things about bitcoin and try to drive people away from it. they see it as a threat to the old banks and try to destroy it. crony capitalism at its finest. while the evil rich people who control China see the economics of it, it's a new booming industry and a growth market. they want China to control it and corner the market on it. this is exactly why China's economy is growing so rapidly and quickly becoming the largest economy in the world and why western economies are either stagnant or shrinking. similar to solar panels, the Chinese see it as a growth market and are trying to have China corner the market on it. while in America they see solar power as a threat to the old coal industry and try to destroy it. while America is only concerned with protecting the old banking and coal industries, which destroys the economy. China is only concerned with economic growth. which is better? if earth continues on its current path and no major events disrupt civilization then China will definitely become the most powerful nation in the world in the coming decades. the country with the largest economy is always the most powerful country in the world and China will have the largest economy in the world soon. i would say advantage: China.

as America weakens under corruption and crony capitalism (fascism?), China strengthens under it's form of communism.

BTW i'm not saying that the Chinese government is good, it's not, it's simply better for gaining power. notice how i didn't say America is a democracy, i think it's actually fascist. real democracy and direct democracy is good for gaining economic power too and better than what the Chinese government calls communism.

then again i could be wrong and they simply want to use bitcoin as a weapon against the USD.

[takagari]

Very interesting, Here's hoping

[bitcool]

It is quite perplexing.  I really don't think it's because of small apartments.  It's mainly because nobody here has ever heard of it.  The JPY market on MtGox has extremely low volume, despite the fact that it's very fast and easy to get yen onto MtGox.

The other weird thing is that foreign exchange trading works as a de facto legal gambling industry here.  I don't have any good figures for the popularity, but in subways / trains / TV there are countless ads for FX trading platforms.  Mostly JPY / USD / EUR I guess.  Not sure if you actually get to take delivery or if it's more of a derivative like the CFD stuff which seems more popular in the EU.

But yeah.  No bitcoin awareness in Japan, no media, nothing.  Who knows why.  Might be that people are pretty old & conservative; I wouldn't expect my grandparents, nor Warren Buffet, nor most Japanese elderly people to understand bitcoin.

Is there any great thinker or philosopher coming out from Japan ? Michio kaku doesn't count as he grew up in the states.

Individualism  seems to be a rare commodity there .

[bobdude17]

There's a few different topics addressed in this post but I wanted to comment on the security issue. Anyone who thinks that having instant access to a huge some of money that is easily transferable and pretty much untraceable wouldn't make you a target for violent criminals is being pretty naive. In 'first world' countries such as USA or UK people will commit violent armed robberies in broad daylight in banks for possible rewards of tens of thousands of dollars. They would definitely prefer to rob less well protected individuals for greater sums. It's not only South America where things like this occur.
 I mentioned this in the 'how many bitcoins have you got' thread and suggested a time delay wallet similar to the safes in banks. On reflection this might just result in you being held by the violent criminals for even longer, making the whole experience of losing all your money even more unpleasant.

 There is one possible solution. You ask a trusted third party such as a lawyer to generate a secret key unknown to you. You generate your own secret key. A bitcoin address is formed that needs both keys to be known to open it (this is easily done) and you transfer your bitcoins to this address. The lawyer cannot access these bitcoins.
 Then in order to access your bitcoins you have to go to your lawyers office and sign a release form and you are given the other key.
 But please ensure that all of the violent criminals are aware that you have done this.

 Alternatively spend all of your bitcoins and your fiat as soon as you get it. I use this method and it works fine.

That would work. I do tend to think that a lot of Bitcoin holders will want to keep their private keys in a bank/vault. It is a concept that most people comfortable/used to. Would be interesting if banks just started printing off banknotes backed by Bitcoin.

notice the difference in economic policy between the US and China? the Chinese see a brand new industry and growth market in digital currencies. they saw that western countries are cornering the market so they ran this story on state run TV to get the Chinese people to start adopting bitcoin. while western governments say nothing but bad things about bitcoin and try to drive people away from it. they see it as a threat to the old banks and try to destroy it. crony capitalism at its finest.

It really is quite illuminating. Makes me think of this article.
http://lewrockwell.com/rosenberg/rosenberg-p17.1.html

[jamesgarfield]

While I do think I grasp the overall idea planned by the designer(s), I can't help but thinking he might be wrong. There is a very good possibility society could slip into the sort of communal economic utopia that he had envisioned, but I think human nature will be expressed despite the fairness of the monetary system. There will be people with more and people with less, and people with more will have more power and options to tempt those with less. And should such a utopia be established, I have my doubts about the peace lasting after the first generation lives and dies.

I know where you are going with this, and I see it to be probable as well, but I just don't think it will hold. You are definitely correct that people will be awestruck by the first wave of developments.

[bobdude17]

You're quoting me, without quotes, as a reply? I'm confused.

[scab]

While I do think I grasp the overall idea planned by the designer(s), I can't help but thinking he might be wrong. There is a very good possibility society could slip into the sort of communal economic utopia that he had envisioned, but I think human nature will be expressed despite the fairness of the monetary system. There will be people with more and people with less, and people with more will have more power and options to tempt those with less. And should such a utopia be established, I have my doubts about the peace lasting after the first generation lives and dies.

I know where you are going with this, and I see it to be probable as well, but I just don't think it will hold. You are definitely correct that people will be awestruck by the first wave of developments.

[BitcoinAshley]

but I think human nature will be expressed despite the fairness of the monetary system.

"But... human nature" 

Human nature is a social construct. 

[Operatr]

It isn't really that much of a surprise when you learn how astronomically screwed their current economy really is, and the Yuan is in line with the Euro and Dollar to fall hard in the near future. Due to the way they don't let citizens invest their money the way we can, they all went hip deep in funneling their new found wealth into housing as an investment, which has caused a bubble so big it escapes rational thought. Unfortunately these people bought into these ghost cities where no one lives. They have all wasted their life savings and don't even know it yet.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100533574

http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml

Lots more articles like these around predicting the worst. This is not the housing boom of the US where they just overbuilt residental neighborhoods and business buildings. They are mass manufacturing entire citites at a debt. These cities add zero to their economy as they are just rotting in the sun now, useless.

Their entire economy is 100% fake, driven by frequent mass capital injections that keeps them building completely empty cities on credit (they build 12-24 new cities per year!) to keep the economy moving. Their middle class can't get enough credit, and the banks can't wait to give it to them. They are doing what the US did, but about 50% faster on the road to failure, it can't go on indefinitely. If China's economy tanks that little tantrum in 2008 will be a tiny footnote in history compared with the consequences of such a collapse of the world's second largest economy. Since the commodities markets would be wiped out along with it (that has been feeding China the materials for all of their insane building), all of the other major bubbles will implode immediately after around the world, causing a shockwave of systemic failure across the board, eventually burning down already shaky banks that are all hiding massive risky derivitives bombs of unfathomable amounts of money (Estimated at around $1.5 Quadrillion, 20x the worlds GDP, no one really knows since banks are not obligated to report to anyone). That means game over for the old economy and fiat currency. There is no amount of money anyone could print to fix it.

Grim, I know, but this is how the world really is right now. It's a house of cards. If you don't believe me I encourage you to start doing your own research and be shocked and disgusted by what you find like I was. We're on borrowed time as they keep inflating currency everywhere to stem the tide.



 If/When (pretty sure it is when at this point) fiat falls what do we do then? The problem can't be fixed with the problem. We will need a new money economy. Luckily, we already have one. Thy name is Bitcoin.

I have theorized as the economic damage gets worse that Bitcoin and its brethren could possibly overwrite the damage and the debt as it occurs. It is very easy to deploy and 100% free for the general populace to use, rapid adoption is totally possible. I'm prepared to watch BTC skyrocket when the next major bank or even a whole country bites the dust. Cyprus was just a taste of that scenario.

A point on mining that seems to escape many: even if the coins are a lot harder to mine in the future, even a slice of one when they are valued at say $1000 or more is still a significant sum. It won't stay at $100 forever while the difficulty and network hashpower ramps up with the Asicocalpse. Mining will still be profitable, possibly even more so if the price increase outpaces the network hashpower increase. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. The mining market and network will stabilize on its own, there is just a lot of hype built around these new ASICs and everyone wants in on the initial rush. It will pass. Those early to the table stand to make a small fortune, but won't be indefinite as ASIC tech becomes readily available.

To imagine the impact if 1/4 of the Earths population hopped on Bitcoin...I really can't wait to see where this is all going. It would be a smart move on their part to dump the Yuan before it dumps them.

[deadweasel]

and how exactly one does prepare for mass adoption of btc? should they hold near themselves a bottle of champaign just in case? is that enough to be prepared for mass adoption of bitcoin? or should they shock up a huge pile of cocain and hookers?

Both?

[bobdude17]

Seems more relevant now.

[jinni]

Seems more relevant now.

I would say more relevant is an understatement. Many people who where reading this thread in May have already made significant gains by holding Bitcoin.

The Chinese gambling culture prediction for sure kicked in; it is just a matter of time before the you-will-be-hacked prediction kicks in. But prediction is the wrong word, it is inductive reasoning. However the message is clear, this is getting more serious, faster than you could imagine.

Next in line for further build-ups is Japan and India, as well as Wall Street and further layers of Western society.

[w1R903]

Seems more relevant now.

Go any more Bitcoin insights?