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Author Topic: Mtgox's official story could be wrong. The BTC of many accounts was sold.  (Read 11149 times)
jaybny
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June 20, 2011, 11:18:42 AM
 #41

so either hacker is pretty dumb or some info is missing here.

hacker was pretty dumb. he got blindsided by the $1000 limit, and panicked.

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June 20, 2011, 11:37:22 AM
 #42


so anyway, what was the point in this? I don't see why would anyone do that .. why not instead sell SOME BTC and when the price is sufficiently low, withdraw remaining BTC.

Would that have worked? How is the withdrawal limit calculated - spot price or some weighted average? It's also possible this was all done to stress the market, for what purposes I'd rather not guess at. Or maybe the perpetrator(s) really were pretty stupid. Not enough info at this point to conclude much.

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June 20, 2011, 11:50:10 AM
 #43

I guess that 1000 USD equivalent limit is based in MtGox Last.
And that 100~200 btc isn't what the blockchain tells us. Could happen for some coincidence someone was moving all that amount of btc at the same time, but once the transactions are given order to enter the blockchain there's no roll back possible. My estimation, based on the blockchain, goes to 500k, a btc worth of nearly 7,5 million usd.
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June 20, 2011, 11:53:40 AM
 #44

I guess that 1000 USD equivalent limit is based in MtGox Last.

can anyone verify that?

that's kind of important to the story claimed by MtGox.
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June 20, 2011, 11:56:48 AM
 #45

the 500k transfer was Mtgox transferring to a backup as a security precaution.




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June 20, 2011, 11:58:54 AM
 #46

the 500k transfer was Mtgox transferring to a backup as a security precaution.

says who? your guess?


if so, security at MtGox was even worse.
500k should not be online but deposited in an offline address from the beginning.

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June 20, 2011, 12:02:13 PM
 #47

Mtgox keeps most of his users' BTC balance in an offline wallet.

There is only so much the attacker could have stolen from the wallets on the server.  Definitely less than 500K.


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June 20, 2011, 12:16:12 PM
 #48

the 500k transfer was Mtgox transferring to a backup as a security precaution.

Not buying that one. Trade halted nearly 15 minutes after that transfer. He would halt trade as first measure.
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June 20, 2011, 12:49:10 PM
 #49

I guess that 1000 USD equivalent limit is based in MtGox Last.

can anyone verify that?

that's kind of important to the story claimed by MtGox.

No, on the interview, it was said to be 100 to 200 BTC.  Others have posted that the limit was based on a weighted average, probably for reasons just like this.  A weighted average seems to match up pretty well with the 100 to 200 claimed.

the 500k transfer was Mtgox transferring to a backup as a security precaution.

Not buying that one. Trade halted nearly 15 minutes after that transfer. He would halt trade as first measure.

I wish I could read minds too.

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June 20, 2011, 12:52:45 PM
 #50

the 500k transfer was Mtgox transferring to a backup as a security precaution.

says who? your guess?


if so, security at MtGox was even worse.
500k should not be online but deposited in an offline address from the beginning.



The person interviewed from MtGox last night said so.   He said they were moving coins to a more secure/safe wallet.

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Bruce Wagner
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June 20, 2011, 12:53:40 PM
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June 20, 2011, 12:53:45 PM
 #52

the 500k transfer was Mtgox transferring to a backup as a security precaution.

Not buying that one. Trade halted nearly 15 minutes after that transfer. He would halt trade as first measure.

Why halt trading first? Rolling back fixes the trading. You can't get the coins back after they are transferred.

The #1 priority is to protect the coins.

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BCEmporium
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June 20, 2011, 12:56:01 PM
 #53

I know you guys want to keep optimistic, but I'm naturally pessimistic. Sorry for that.
I don't stick to Murphy's law, don't think that if something might go wrong it will go wrong, but always like to be prepared for the worse scenario. Just because I believe that this way I might be happy if I'm wrong but also not fail to despair if I'm right.

@kjj,

It's not a matter of read minds, a thing I can't obviously do, but a matter of reading timelines, a thing I can perfectly do.

@xenon481

While trading was live, people was trading and withdrawing. Mind to tell me where that is to protect whatsoever?! That 500k move was within the time between the start of the attack and MtGox to noticed it, not a MtGox move. If you want to believe it was something else think it was some unrelated movement by coincidence to happen at such time.
That's the best possible scenario, not "MtGox's Star Trek security" which he hadn't, most likely he just uses bitcoind as database, there's no bitcoin fractional reserve nor bitcoins even exist offline for he to put them there. Offline he probably have wallet backups, which are pretty much useless now.

Also to notice, when Jed made it, bitcoin was a pennies pet market experiment, not the million dollar market it is today.
relative
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June 20, 2011, 01:00:50 PM
 #54

there might still be a rather large loot, but the 500k transaction was not part of it.
see https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=20000.0
kjj
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June 20, 2011, 01:13:33 PM
 #55

@kjj,

It's not a matter of read minds, a thing I can't obviously do, but a matter of reading timelines, a thing I can perfectly do.

No, you read a timeline, and then you read his mind to find out what he really would do, and you drew a conclusion based on the timeline not matching the results of your psychic probe.

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